Wednesday, April 27, 2005

State Senate - District 25

State Senate - District 25

2006 Contest
Republican Candidates – Jud Gilbert (Algonac)
Democrat Candidates – Gary Orr (Marysville)

Current Rep – Jud Gilbert (R-Algonac)

2002 Results
Jud Gilbert – 55.93%
Thomas Hamilton – 35.71%

Presidential results:
Bush – 55.13%
Kerry – 43.80%


Republican Michigander’s prognosis – Safe Republican

District covers:
Lapeer and St Clair Counties

I slightly hesitated before moving this to Safe Republican as this is a very populist district, but demographics and cultural issues are working to the GOP’s favor here. Lapeer County is rapidly moving towards the right. It went 58.98 in 2002 and 57.89 in 2004. In 2000, it went 54.66% for Bush. St Clair is also moving to the right. It went from 49.00% in 2000 to 52.76% in 2002 to 53.60% in 2004. About 60% of the voters are in St Clair County, with the rest in Lapeer. That gives this a GOP leaning that is become stronger. Gilbert won a few tough state rep races in St Clair County beforehand, and was contested in 2002 for this seat. He won by the same margin Bush won the district in 2004. The Second Amendment is a huge issue in this district. St Clair County is one of the most active pro-2nd Amendment Counties in the state.

In 2004, democrats only won Marathon Township in Lapeer County. In St Clair County, they won Marine City, Port Huron, and Port Huron Township. Port Huron leans democrat, but isn’t as democrat as most core cities at 55%.

This district is winnable for the democrats, but not in the current state where the democrat party is dominated by cultural liberals and gun grabbers. As Gilbert is strong on those issues, I’m leaving this as safe republican for now.

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