Sunday, January 31, 2010

Michigan 11th District (MI-11) Updated

Michigan's 11th District - Congress

Incumbent - Thad McCotter (R-Livonia)
Years in office as of 2010 election - 8
Cook District Numbers - EVEN

GOP Candidate - Thad McCotter
Dem Candidate - Natalie Mosher

Barone’s numbers
2008:
Obama - 54%
McCain - 45%

2004:
Bush - 53%
Kerry – 47%

2000
Bush - 51%
Gore - 47%


This is a tough district created to elect a republican without damaging the neighbors. It worked for McCotter, but neighbor Knollenberg was defeated in 2008. This district was created from the old 11th and 13th districts. The 13th was democrat and based in Ann Arbor. It was the old Lynn Rivers/Bill Ford district. The old 11th district was Knollenberg's. This was an open seat in 2002. The democrats wanted Lynn Rivers to move to Wayne County and run against McCotter. She declined and ran against John Dingell in the new 15th which included her home Washtenaw County portion of her district.

McCotter is a good fit for the district and is a balancing test. He has an intellectual side as well as a populist side, showing that both of them can exist without being a squish. McCotter is not that. He takes a stand, speaks his mind, backs up his points and lets the chips fall where they may. I respect that. He's not a cookie cutter congressman.

The 11th is a diverse district that covers Commerce Twp, Highland Twp, Lyon Twp, Milford Twp, City of Novi, Novi Twp, City of South Lyon, City of Walled Lake, and a small portion of Waterford Twp in Oakland County. It covers the City of Northville in both Wayne and Oakland County. It covers the City of Belleville, Canton Twp, part of Dearborn Heights, Garden City, Livonia, Northville Twp, City of Plymouth, Plymouth Twp, Redford Twp, Van Buren Twp, the City of Wayne, and the City of Westland in Wayne County. It has some strong Republican areas and some democrat strongholds. It has affluent areas that are both socially conservative and liberal. He has a large number of blue collar areas. The one thing the whole district has in common is the auto industry support. If I had to characterize this district overall, it's slightly populist, and socially center-right. It's a dangerous district and McCotter had his closest race in the democrat year of 2008, winning by slightly under 21,000 votes as the district flipped to Obama.

If the state stops the bleeding overall trends from 06 and 08, there's good and bad news for McCotter. The good news is that West Oakland is still strong, and capable of being stronger. The bad news is Redford (Union and also Detroiters moving there) and Dearborn Heights (same, although more Arabic population than Detroiter there). Those two areas significantly went more blue from 2000 to 2004. They were competitive and leaned conservative democrat at one time, but newcomers are moving there and taking their blueness with them. There were close in 2000, not anymore. They aren't liberal areas like Plymouth, but they are democrat. It's the new Westland, populist democrat. Westland (UAW) and Wayne (UAW) have been blue for a long, long time, Westland becoming more so with a larger minority population. Populist Democrat. Belleville (UAW and Airport) and Van Buren Twp (same) in the airport area, has been locally competitive, but blue for a long time at the top of the ticket. Canton's shifting closer to its old democrat roots from long past. It was very close in 2000 and 2004, flipping like most of the state in 06/08. Canton border Ypsilanti in Washtenaw County and is a close drive to Ann Arbor along Michigan Avenue and  Ford Rd. It's less populist (but more populist than Scio Twp) than Redford/Westland, but more of a cultural liberalism than those areas, although not nearly on the level of Scio Twp. It splits the difference. Plymouth and Northville are more affluent and were Republican strongholds, less so today. It's a lot less populist than Canton, and is more closer to Oakland County in a lot of its views than Wayne County. Mitt Romney types would do well there, and they would crash and burn in Redford.

Livonia on the other hand, has a bit of everything. Working Class areas, affluent areas, and all areas in between. It's also heavily Catholic, and a little more social conservative than Plymouth or maybe Canton, but not as economically conservative. By little more, I mean that. It's not nearly Ann Arbor, and it's not nearly Ottawa County either. It was democrat years ago, moved a little to the right, and has been competitive, but leaned republican for awhile. Livonia flipped in 08 back to its McNamara days, but McCotter still won there easily, as did John Walsh for state rep. It actually went more red in 2004 than 2000 though, so don't give up here. It broke the opposite trends of Plymouth and Canton and Northville. Livonia is more republican than Canton now, although Plymouth and Northville are still more republican than Livonia by percentage. It's a middle America mainstream suburb, not fond of negative campaigning, and will vote the man over the party. Livonia's backed Thad and Joan McCotter, Lyn Banks, Mike Cox (his home), John Walsh, and Laura Toy. On their city council are both republicans and democrats. It's also the former home of Ed McNamara, who was possibly the most powerful democrat in the state as Wayne County Executive. Before he was the executive, he was mayor of Livonia. It's an important area if the Republicans are going to win statewide again.

Western Oakland is more friendly to the GOP overall. Walled Lake is competitive (blue in 2000), and Novi (which raised my alarm bells in 04) and Waterford was in 08, but the rest of it is still solidly red outside of Wixom. If the bleeding is stopped and the area reverts to 2000 or 2004, only Walled Lake will be expected to be close in 2010. We'll see what happens in 2010/2012.Wixom has some GOP leanings outside of one precinct which is heavily democrat. It's the home of a large apartment complex. That caused it to flip in 2008. Turnout is key here. The center of GOP strength in Oakland County is now Milford and South Lyon to the west, and the 8th District's Independence Township to the North. If the GOP will win Oakland County, it starts with those areas.

McCotter's run ahead of the top of the ticket in every election. Here's his 2002 numbers against a spirited challenge by Kevin Kelly. Even with McCotter's solid win, there's a blue base within this district that reaches to all levels.That's why this district is never a safe bet.


2002 Elections McCotter Kelley 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
Oakland County:


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Commerce Twp 7,759 4,296 365      12,420 3463 62.47% 34.59% 27.88%
Highland Twp 4,266 2,057 247        6,570 2209 64.93% 31.31% 33.62%
Lyon Twp 2,483 1,144 107        3,734 1339 66.50% 30.64% 35.86%
Milford Twp 3,747 1,829 190        5,766 1918 64.98% 31.72% 33.26%
City of Northville 1,072 496 24        1,592 576 67.34% 31.16% 36.18%
City of Novi 9,879 5,404 412      15,695 4475 62.94% 34.43% 28.51%
Novi Twp 52 24 1            77 28 67.53% 31.17% 36.36%
City of South Lyon 2,058 1,240 111        3,409 818 60.37% 36.37% 24.00%
City of Walled Lake 1,084 866 85        2,035 218 53.27% 42.56% 10.71%
Waterford Twp 1,384 1,000 96        2,480 384 55.81% 40.32% 15.48%
Waterford 1-a


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Waterford 3


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Waterford 5


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Waterford 931


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
White Lake Twp 5,801 3,344 330        9,475 2457 61.22% 35.29% 25.93%
City of Wixom 2,257 1,158 110        3,525 1099 64.03% 32.85% 31.18%
Wayne County:


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
City of Belleville 592 622 44        1,258 -30 47.06% 49.44% -2.38%
Canton Twp 13,679 9,632 951      24,262 4047 56.38% 39.70% 16.68%
Dearborn Heights 2,103 2,192 166        4,461 -89 47.14% 49.14% -2.00%
DH 6


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
DH7


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
DH8


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
DH9


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
DH10


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
DH11


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
DH12


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
DH13


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
DH37


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
DH38


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
DH941


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
DH942


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Garden City 3,978 4,118 355        8,451 -140 47.07% 48.73% -1.66%
City of Livonia 24,971 13,804 881      39,656 11167 62.97% 34.81% 28.16%
City of Northville 800 469 24        1,293 331 61.87% 36.27% 25.60%
Northville Twp 6,464 2,833 200        9,497 3631 68.06% 29.83% 38.23%
City of Plymouth 2,118 1,351 141        3,610 767 58.67% 37.42% 21.25%
Plymouth Twp 7,549 4,043 361      11,953 3506 63.16% 33.82% 29.33%
Redford Twp 8,039 8,184 624      16,847 -145 47.72% 48.58% -0.86%
Van Buren Twp 2,908 3,539 297        6,744 -631 43.12% 52.48% -9.36%
City of Wayne 1,859 2,696 174        4,729 -837 39.31% 57.01% -17.70%
City of Westland 9,149 11,059 697      20,905 -1910 43.76% 52.90% -9.14%









Total 126,051 87,400 6,993 220,444 38651 57.18% 39.65% 17.53%

Here's the 2004 numbers.

2004 Elections McCotter Truran 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
Oakland County:


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Commerce Twp 11,879 6,462 450      18,791 5417 63.22% 34.39% 28.83%
Highland Twp 6,476 3,077 228        9,781 3399 66.21% 31.46% 34.75%
Lyon Twp 4,040 1,804 127        5,971 2236 67.66% 30.21% 37.45%
Milford Twp 5,508 2,517 188        8,213 2991 67.06% 30.65% 36.42%
City of Northville 1,351 663 42        2,056 688 65.71% 32.25% 33.46%
City of Novi 14,795 8,480 430      23,705 6315 62.41% 35.77% 26.64%
Novi Twp 75 34 2          111 41 67.57% 30.63% 36.94%
City of South Lyon 3,261 1,801 98        5,160 1460 63.20% 34.90% 28.29%
City of Walled Lake 1,629 1,331 82        3,042 298 53.55% 43.75% 9.80%
Waterford Twp 2,050 1,350 99        3,499 700 58.59% 38.58% 20.01%
Waterford 1-a


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Waterford 3


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Waterford 5


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Waterford 931


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
White Lake Twp 9,150 4,771 372      14,293 4379 64.02% 33.38% 30.64%
City of Wixom 3,432 2,084 133        5,649 1348 60.75% 36.89% 23.86%
Wayne County:


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
City of Belleville 850 969 45        1,864 -119 45.60% 51.98% -6.38%
Canton Twp 22,131 15,663 707      38,501 6468 57.48% 40.68% 16.80%
Dearborn Heights 2,751 3,275 117        6,143 -524 44.78% 53.31% -8.53%
DH 6


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
DH7


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
DH8


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
DH9


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
DH10


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
DH11


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
DH12


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
DH13


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
DH37


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
DH38


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
DH941


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
DH942


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Garden City 6,165 6,327 336      12,828 -162 48.06% 49.32% -1.26%
City of Livonia 33,157 19,321 902      53,380 13836 62.12% 36.20% 25.92%
City of Northville 1,043 623 29        1,695 420 61.53% 36.76% 24.78%
Northville Twp 9,717 4,193 185      14,095 5524 68.94% 29.75% 39.19%
City of Plymouth 2,801 1,936 107        4,844 865 57.82% 39.97% 17.86%
Plymouth Twp 10,533 5,542 224      16,299 4991 64.62% 34.00% 30.62%
Redford Twp 10,860 12,193 540      23,593 -1333 46.03% 51.68% -5.65%
Van Buren Twp 4,823 6,433 291      11,547 -1610 41.77% 55.71% -13.94%
City of Wayne 2,948 4,411 152        7,511 -1463 39.25% 58.73% -19.48%
City of Westland 15,006 19,041 598      34,645 -4035 43.31% 54.96% -11.65%









Total 186,431 134,301 6,484 327,216 52130 56.97% 41.04% 15.93%

2006 was closer and the ticket splitters saved him. McCotter ran against radio talk show host Tony Trupiano.

2006 Elections McCotter Trupiano 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
Oakland County:


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Commerce Twp 9,851 5,734 506      16,091 4117 61.22% 35.63% 25.59%
Highland Twp 5,058 2,694 272        8,024 2364 63.04% 33.57% 29.46%
Lyon Twp 3,300 1,606 155        5,061 1694 65.20% 31.73% 33.47%
Milford Twp 4,380 2,317 217        6,914 2063 63.35% 33.51% 29.84%
City of Northville 1,112 582 44        1,738 530 63.98% 33.49% 30.49%
City of Novi 11,599 7,501 446      19,546 4098 59.34% 38.38% 20.97%
Novi Twp 51 29 3            83 22 61.45% 34.94% 26.51%
City of South Lyon 2,563 1,547 113        4,223 1016 60.69% 36.63% 24.06%
City of Walled Lake 1,260 1,087 96        2,443 173 51.58% 44.49% 7.08%
Waterford Twp 1,494 1,168 107        2,769 326 53.95% 42.18% 11.77%
Waterford 1-a


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Waterford 3


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Waterford 5


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Waterford 931


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
White Lake Twp 7,082 4,318 425      11,825 2764 59.89% 36.52% 23.37%
City of Wixom 2,675 1,773 111        4,559 902 58.68% 38.89% 19.79%
Wayne County:


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
City of Belleville 584 798 82        1,464 -214 39.89% 54.51% -14.62%
Canton Twp 16,687 13,712 812      31,211 2975 53.47% 43.93% 9.53%
Dearborn Heights 1,959 2,786 158        4,903 -827 39.96% 56.82% -16.87%
DH 6


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
DH7


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
DH8


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
DH9


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
DH10


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
DH11


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
DH12


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
DH13


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
DH37


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
DH38


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
DH941


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
DH942


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Garden City 4,434 5,022 427        9,883 -588 44.86% 50.81% -5.95%
City of Livonia 25,844 17,194 1156      44,194 8650 58.48% 38.91% 19.57%
City of Northville 862 504 27        1,393 358 61.88% 36.18% 25.70%
Northville Twp 8,117 3,908 193      12,218 4209 66.43% 31.99% 34.45%
City of Plymouth 2,170 1,688 116        3,974 482 54.60% 42.48% 12.13%
Plymouth Twp 8,351 4,832 320      13,503 3519 61.85% 35.78% 26.06%
Redford Twp 7,741 10,178 576      18,495 -2437 41.85% 55.03% -13.18%
Van Buren Twp 3,441 5,648 370        9,459 -2207 36.38% 59.71% -23.33%
City of Wayne 2,188 3,239 233        5,660 -1051 38.66% 57.23% -18.57%
City of Westland 10,856 14,385 919      26,160 -3529 41.50% 54.99% -13.49%









Total 143,659 114,250 7,884 265,793 29409 54.05% 42.98% 11.06%

2008 was much closer. Ticket Splitters saved him.

2008 Elections McCotter Larkin 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
Oakland County:


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Commerce Twp 12,036 7,491 620      20,147 4545 59.74% 37.18% 22.56%
Highland Twp 6,217 3,450 367      10,034 2767 61.96% 34.38% 27.58%
Lyon Twp 4,369 2,162 217        6,748 2207 64.75% 32.04% 32.71%
Milford Twp 5,468 2,735 330        8,533 2733 64.08% 32.05% 32.03%
City of Northville 1,294 714 56        2,064 580 62.69% 34.59% 28.10%
City of Novi 14,675 10,864 689      26,228 3811 55.95% 41.42% 14.53%
Novi Twp 62 37 3          102 25 60.78% 36.27% 24.51%
City of South Lyon 3,222 1,999 160        5,381 1223 59.88% 37.15% 22.73%
City of Walled Lake 1,608 1,451 114        3,173 157 50.68% 45.73% 4.95%
Waterford Twp 1,736 1,441 144        3,321 295 52.27% 43.39% 8.88%
Waterford 1-a


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Waterford 3


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Waterford 5


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Waterford 931


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
White Lake Twp 8,772 5,595 351      14,718 3177 59.60% 38.01% 21.59%
City of Wixom 3,331 2,680 202        6,213 651 53.61% 43.14% 10.48%
Wayne County:


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
City of Belleville 742 1,147 56        1,945 -405 38.15% 58.97% -20.82%
Canton Twp 21,047 20,703 1153      42,903 344 49.06% 48.26% 0.80%
Dearborn Heights 2,440 3,437 127        6,004 -997 40.64% 57.25% -16.61%
DH 6


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
DH7


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
DH8


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
DH9


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
DH10


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
DH11


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
DH12


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
DH13


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
DH37


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
DH38


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
DH941


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
DH942


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Garden City 5,753 6,607 505      12,865 -854 44.72% 51.36% -6.64%
City of Livonia 31,114 21,286 1700      54,100 9828 57.51% 39.35% 18.17%
City of Northville 967 646 50        1,663 321 58.15% 38.85% 19.30%
Northville Twp 9,967 5,400 387      15,754 4567 63.27% 34.28% 28.99%
City of Plymouth 2,662 2,192 188        5,042 470 52.80% 43.47% 9.32%
Plymouth Twp 10,166 5,912 453      16,531 4254 61.50% 35.76% 25.73%
Redford Twp 8,750 13,925 911      23,586 -5175 37.10% 59.04% -21.94%
Van Buren Twp 4,393 8,578 453      13,424 -4185 32.72% 63.90% -31.18%
City of Wayne 2,782 4,670 167        7,619 -1888 36.51% 61.29% -24.78%
City of Westland 13,888 21,503 1283      36,674 -7615 37.87% 58.63% -20.76%









Total 177,461 156,625 10,686 344,772 20836 51.47% 45.43% 6.04%

Here's Bush's 2000 numbers.

2000 Elections Bush Gore 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
Oakland County:


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Commerce Twp 9,541 6,867 445      16,853 2674 56.61% 40.75% 15.87%
Highland Twp 5,131 3,486 338        8,955 1645 57.30% 38.93% 18.37%
Lyon Twp 2,815 1,792 146        4,753 1023 59.23% 37.70% 21.52%
Milford Twp 4,598 2,921 200        7,719 1677 59.57% 37.84% 21.73%
City of Northville 1,239 716 37        1,992 523 62.20% 35.94% 26.26%
City of Novi 12,339 8,667 554      21,560 3672 57.23% 40.20% 17.03%
Novi Twp 58 35 3            96 23 60.42% 36.46% 23.96%
City of South Lyon 2,464 2,123 116        4,703 341 52.39% 45.14% 7.25%
City of Walled Lake 1,436 1,462 100        2,998 -26 47.90% 48.77% -0.87%
Waterford Twp


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Waterford 1-a 548 500 34        1,082 48 50.65% 46.21% 4.44%
Waterford 3 344 382 20          746 -38 46.11% 51.21% -5.09%
Waterford 5 491 414 24          929 77 52.85% 44.56% 8.29%
Waterford 931 1,290 1,190 36        2,516 100 51.27% 47.30% 3.97%
White Lake Twp 7,279 5,203 335      12,817 2076 56.79% 40.59% 16.20%
City of Wixom 2,970 2,110 135        5,215 860 56.95% 40.46% 16.49%
Wayne County:


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
City of Belleville 742 1,048 41        1,831 -306 40.52% 57.24% -16.71%
Canton Twp 16,435 14,974 695      32,104 1461 51.19% 46.64% 4.55%
Dearborn Heights


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
DH 6 158 196 16          370 -38 42.70% 52.97% -10.27%
DH7 266 290 19          575 -24 46.26% 50.43% -4.17%
DH8 268 227 12          507 41 52.86% 44.77% 8.09%
DH9 181 227 15          423 -46 42.79% 53.66% -10.87%
DH10 160 218 14          392 -58 40.82% 55.61% -14.80%
DH11 206 221 15          442 -15 46.61% 50.00% -3.39%
DH12 187 297 11          495 -110 37.78% 60.00% -22.22%
DH13 267 262 12          541 5 49.35% 48.43% 0.92%
DH37 113 235 9          357 -122 31.65% 65.83% -34.17%
DH38 216 246 12          474 -30 45.57% 51.90% -6.33%
DH941 409 478 21          908 -69 45.04% 52.64% -7.60%
DH942 20 38
           58 -18 34.48% 65.52% -31.03%
Garden City 5,050 6,919 305      12,274 -1869 41.14% 56.37% -15.23%
City of Livonia 27,319 22,756 1577      51,652 4563 52.89% 44.06% 8.83%
City of Northville 915 667 44        1,626 248 56.27% 41.02% 15.25%
Northville Twp 6,954 4,058 281      11,293 2896 61.58% 35.93% 25.64%
City of Plymouth 2,366 2,243 179        4,788 123 49.42% 46.85% 2.57%
Plymouth Twp 8,725 6,029 384      15,138 2696 57.64% 39.83% 17.81%
Redford Twp 9,506 12,143 668      22,317 -2637 42.60% 54.41% -11.82%
Van Buren Twp 3,578 5,232 272        9,082 -1654 39.40% 57.61% -18.21%
City of Wayne 2,478 4,178 186        6,842 -1700 36.22% 61.06% -24.85%
City of Westland 12,348 18,310 910      31,568 -5962 39.12% 58.00% -18.89%









Total 151,410 139,360 8,221 298,991 12050 50.64% 46.61% 4.03%

2004 numbers.


2004 Elections Bush Kerry 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
Oakland County:


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Commerce Twp 12,019 7,838 196      20,053 4181 59.94% 39.09% 20.85%
Highland Twp 6,509 3,849 104      10,462 2660 62.22% 36.79% 25.43%
Lyon Twp 4,082 2,274 68        6,424 1808 63.54% 35.40% 28.14%
Milford Twp 5,413 3,252 77        8,742 2161 61.92% 37.20% 24.72%
City of Northville 1,269 866 22        2,157 403 58.83% 40.15% 18.68%
City of Novi 14,484 10,612 219      25,315 3872 57.22% 41.92% 15.30%
Novi Twp 67 40 1          108 27 62.04% 37.04% 25.00%
City of South Lyon 3,191 2,236 40        5,467 955 58.37% 40.90% 17.47%
City of Walled Lake 1,664 1,580 31        3,275 84 50.81% 48.24% 2.56%
Waterford Twp


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Waterford 1-a 719 423 13        1,155 296 62.25% 36.62% 25.63%
Waterford 3 401 349 8          758 52 52.90% 46.04% 6.86%
Waterford 5 639 484 10        1,133 155 56.40% 42.72% 13.68%
Waterford 931 433 323 14          770 110 56.23% 41.95% 14.29%
White Lake Twp 9,439 5,821 135      15,395 3618 61.31% 37.81% 23.50%
City of Wixom 3,484 2,552 55        6,091 932 57.20% 41.90% 15.30%
Wayne County:


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
City of Belleville 856 1,131 18        2,005 -275 42.69% 56.41% -13.72%
Canton Twp 21,452 19,743 363      41,558 1709 51.62% 47.51% 4.11%
Dearborn Heights


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
DH 6 148 257 1          406 -109 36.45% 63.30% -26.85%
DH7 288 380 13          681 -92 42.29% 55.80% -13.51%
DH8 238 274 8          520 -36 45.77% 52.69% -6.92%
DH9 195 232 8          435 -37 44.83% 53.33% -8.51%
DH10 152 237 11          400 -85 38.00% 59.25% -21.25%
DH11 272 301 14          587 -29 46.34% 51.28% -4.94%
DH12 243 336 9          588 -93 41.33% 57.14% -15.82%
DH13 253 263 4          520 -10 48.65% 50.58% -1.92%
DH37 108 263 3          374 -155 28.88% 70.32% -41.44%
DH38 205 282 11          498 -77 41.16% 56.63% -15.46%
DH941 82 119 3          204 -37 40.20% 58.33% -18.14%
DH942 602 776 17        1,395 -174 43.15% 55.63% -12.47%
Garden City 6,241 7,588 143      13,972 -1347 44.67% 54.31% -9.64%
City of Livonia 30,626 25,148 561      56,335 5478 54.36% 44.64% 9.72%
City of Northville 955 790 15        1,760 165 54.26% 44.89% 9.38%
Northville Twp 9,110 5,676 95      14,881 3434 61.22% 38.14% 23.08%
City of Plymouth 2,557 2,553 57        5,167 4 49.49% 49.41% 0.08%
Plymouth Twp 9,828 6,987 167      16,982 2841 57.87% 41.14% 16.73%
Redford Twp 10,244 14,276 332      24,852 -4032 41.22% 57.44% -16.22%
Van Buren Twp 4,993 7,353 660      13,006 -2360 38.39% 56.54% -18.15%
City of Wayne 3,037 4,852 72        7,961 -1815 38.15% 60.95% -22.80%
City of Westland 14,953 21,208 589      36,750 -6255 40.69% 57.71% -17.02%









Total 181,451 163,524 4,167 349,142 17927 51.97% 46.84% 5.13%

2008 numbers. Big flips here, but the biggest was Wixom. That was due to one precinct. Those familiar with the area know about the gigantic apartment complex there. That's the big flip. Obama entire margin of victory in Wixom was due to that area. Think Bath Twp in the 8th. The rest I'd say is general trends of 2008 and a weak candidate for the GOP at the top. I don't know if there's new building there in Wixom, of it just the apartment dwellers got out and voted for Mr. Obama.


2008 Elections McCain Obama 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
Oakland County:


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Commerce Twp 11,428 9,900 231      21,559 1528 53.01% 45.92% 7.09%
Highland Twp 5,987 4,533 231      10,751 1454 55.69% 42.16% 13.52%
Lyon Twp 4,120 3,009 112        7,241 1111 56.90% 41.56% 15.34%
Milford Twp 5,105 3,851 145        9,101 1254 56.09% 42.31% 13.78%
City of Northville 1,127 1,001 21        2,149 126 52.44% 46.58% 5.86%
City of Novi 13,264 14,397 350      28,011 -1133 47.35% 51.40% -4.04%
Novi Twp 52 57 2          111 -5 46.85% 51.35% -4.50%
City of South Lyon 2,983 2,712 91        5,786 271 51.56% 46.87% 4.68%
City of Walled Lake 1,517 1,823 78        3,418 -306 44.38% 53.34% -8.95%
Waterford Twp


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Waterford 1-a 537 475 14        1,026 62 52.34% 46.30% 6.04%
Waterford 3 339 380 23          742 -41 45.69% 51.21% -5.53%
Waterford 5 429 527 22          978 -98 43.87% 53.89% -10.02%
Waterford 931 2,189 2,251 88        4,528 -62 48.34% 49.71% -1.37%
White Lake Twp 8,563 7,196 302      16,061 1367 53.32% 44.80% 8.51%
City of Wixom 3,077 3,495 111        6,683 -418 46.04% 52.30% -6.25%
Wayne County:


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
City of Belleville 733 1,315 22        2,070 -582 35.41% 63.53% -28.12%
Canton Twp 19,078 26,092 658      45,828 -7014 41.63% 56.93% -15.31%
Dearborn Heights


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
DH 6 96 313 5          414 -217 23.19% 75.60% -52.42%
DH7 242 413 9          664 -171 36.45% 62.20% -25.75%
DH8 196 281 7          484 -85 40.50% 58.06% -17.56%
DH9 142 282 8          432 -140 32.87% 65.28% -32.41%
DH10 126 216 10          352 -90 35.80% 61.36% -25.57%
DH11 185 321 10          516 -136 35.85% 62.21% -26.36%
DH12 180 331 13          524 -151 34.35% 63.17% -28.82%
DH13 199 280 8          487 -81 40.86% 57.49% -16.63%
DH37 86 305 7          398 -219 21.61% 76.63% -55.03%
DH38 162 278 20          460 -116 35.22% 60.43% -25.22%
DH941 71 144 4          219 -73 32.42% 65.75% -33.33%
DH942 697 804 36        1,537 -107 45.35% 52.31% -6.96%
Garden City 5,466 7,976 314      13,756 -2510 39.74% 57.98% -18.25%
City of Livonia 28,190 28,358 952      57,500 -168 49.03% 49.32% -0.29%
City of Northville 846 895 19        1,760 -49 48.07% 50.85% -2.78%
Northville Twp 9,025 7,497 214      16,736 1528 53.93% 44.80% 9.13%
City of Plymouth 2,277 3,013 108        5,398 -736 42.18% 55.82% -13.63%
Plymouth Twp 9,003 8,115 276      17,394 888 51.76% 46.65% 5.11%
Redford Twp 7,891 16,540 526      24,957 -8649 31.62% 66.27% -34.66%
Van Buren Twp 4,375 9,703 205      14,283 -5328 30.63% 67.93% -37.30%
City of Wayne 2,700 5,353 147        8,200 -2653 32.93% 65.28% -32.35%
City of Westland 13,021 25,262 743      39,026 -12241 33.36% 64.73% -31.37%









Total 165,704 199,694 6,142 371,540 -33990 44.60% 53.75% -9.15%

Breakdown by area:
Oakland County
2000 - Bush 56.54%, Gore 40.75%, 92934 votes, 14675 vote spread
2002 - McCotter 62.66%, Kelley 34.23%, 66778 votes, 18964 vote spread
2004 - Bush 59.48%, Kerry 39.61%, 107305 votes, 21313 vote spread
2004 - McCotter 63.47%, Truran 34.28%, 100271 votes, 29272 vote spread
2006 - McCotter 60.55%, Trupiano 36.45%, 83276 votes, 20069 vote spread
2008 - McCain 51.39%, Obama 47.07%, 118145 votes, 5110 vote spread
2008 - McCotter 58.87%, Larkin 38.08%, 106662 votes, 22171 vote spread.

Wayne County
2000 - Gore 49.25%, Bush 47.98%, 206057 votes, -2625 vote spread
2002 - McCotter 54.80%, Kelley 42.00%, 153666 votes, 19667 vote spread
2004 - Kerry 50.20%, Bush 48.67%, 241837 votes, -3387 vote spread
2004 - McCotter 54.10%, Truran 44.03%, 226945 votes, 22858 vote spread
2006 - McCotter 51.08%, Trupiano 45.97%, 182517 votes, 9370 vote spread
2008 - Obama 56.86%, McCain 41.43%, 253395 votes, -39100 vote spread
2008 - Larkin 48.72%, McCotter 48.16%, 238,110 votes, -1335 vote spread

The farm club is split here. All of the Wayne County state reps are now democrats outside of John Walsh in Livonia. Walsh is the last man standing, and won easily in 08. We got lucky with the candidate there. Oakland's farm club here is almost all republican outside of the West Bloomfield/Commerce district.

St Senate 26th - Covers Atlas Twp, City of Burton, City of Clio, City of Davison, Davison Twp, Forest Twp, City of Grand Blanc, Grand Blanc Twp, City of Mt. Morris, Mt Morris Twp, Richfield Twp, Thetford Twp, and Vienna Twp in Genesee County. Covers Brandon Twp, Groveland Twp, Springfield Twp, and Waterford Twp in Oakland County. This one caught a lot of people offguard. It was created for Deb Cherry, who ran for the open seat in 2002 to replace her brother John. Everyone assumed it would be an easy race, probably with numbers similar to Emerson. Her opponent was John Muller, who was treated  as a sacrificial lamb. Muller won everywhere in Oakland outside of Waterford which his narrowly lost. He won Atlas Twp and almost took the city of Grand Blanc. In the end, it was a 55-45% race. 06 was well, 06, and this seat really wasn't that strongly contested. 2010 is another story. Deb Cherry is termed out. John Cherry I believe is also termed out. This seat is winnable for the GOP. Kerry won it by less than 1 percent in 2004. Dave Robertson of Grand Blanc is running for the GOP and has my support. Robertson worked hard at three tough races in his old district. Tough races are not new for him.



St Senate 26th
GOP
Dem
3rd Party




06 - Seiferlein/Cherry
41445
65771

   107,216
-24326
38.66%
61.34%
-22.69%
02 - Muller/Cherry
37852
47848

     85,700
-9996
44.17%
55.83%
-11.66%


St Senate 15 - Covers Commerce Twp, Highland Twp, Holly Twp, Lyon Twp, Milford Twp, City of Northville, City of Novi, Novi Twp, Orchard Lake Village, Rose Twp, City of South Lyon, City of Walled Lake, West Bloomfield Twp, White Lake Twp, and City of Wixom. This is an open seat with Nancy Cassis termed out. She defeat Ray Raczkowski (not to be confused with Rocky) in 2006. I don't know if they are related or not. I didn't ask Rocky.Most of this district is in the 11th or 9th district. It's Republican Leaning, although less so than it once was. I can see headaches if the dems are able to win by a decent number in Commerce Twp, Novi, and Walled Lake and increase their West Bloomfield Stronghold. I don't expect that in 2010 outside of West Bloomfield, but WB is now about 60% democrat. I hope they love their taxes there.....


St. Senate 15th
GOP
Dem






06 - Cassis/R.Razckowski
66,524
45,782
3101
   115,407
20742
57.64%
39.67%
17.97%
02 - Cassis/Carlson
57,583
35,305
2340
     95,228
22278
60.47%
37.07%
23.39%

St Senate 8th - Covers Allen Park, Ecorse, Lincoln Park, Melvindale, Riverview, Romulus, Southgate, Taylor, Wayne, and Wyandotte in Wayne County. This district is split between the Detroit Districts, Dingell's district, and also the 11th. It's a solid democrat stronghold between Downriver and the Airport area. It's an open seat opened up by Ray Basham being termed out.


St Senate 8th GOP  Dem 3rd Party



06 - Kalsic/Basham 21727 58501 2197      82,425 -36774 26.36% 70.97% -44.62%
02 - Montelauro/Basham 22128 43874 2312      68,314 -21746 32.39% 64.22% -31.83%


St Senate 7th - Covers Belleville, Brownstown Twp, Canton Twp, City of Flat Rock, Gibralter, Grosse Ile Twp, Huron Twp, City of Northville (Wayne County side), Northville Twp, City of Plymouth, Plymouth Twp, City of Rockwood, Sumpter Twp, City of Trenton, Van Buren Twp, and City of Woodhaven in Wayne County. This is a swing district, if not slightly democrat leaning. Bruce Patterson had two tough wins and is termed out. Patterson won, by cutting into the normal GOP losses in the downriver portions of the district, while winning Canton, Plymouth Twp and Northville. This will be a major battle in 2010. It's been a battleground district for years, as was its similar district pre-redistricting represented by Lorne Bennett.


St Senate 7th GOP  Dem 3rd Party



06 - Patterson/Slavens 59,647 56,156
   115,803 3491 51.51% 48.49% 3.01%
02 - Patterson/Mans 52,435 40,675
     93,110 11760 56.32% 43.68% 12.63%

St Senate 6th - Covers Garden City, Livonia, Redford Twp, and Westland in Wayne County - This is a very difficult district that flipped in 2006. Laura Toy won a difficult race in 2002, but Glenn Anderson won in what some considered an upset, in 2006. The trouble here is that Livonia has to outvote the spread in three municipalities to win. It was possible when Redford was close if enough crossvotes happen in Garden City and Westland. With Redford being a stronghold now with the other two, it's easier said than done. It's not the Redford of 20 years ago, or even 10 years ago.

St Senate 6th GOP  Dem 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
06 - Toy/Anderson 47,596 52,500
   100,096 -4904 47.55% 52.45% -4.90%
02 - Toy/DeHart 46,257 39,152
     85,409 7105 54.16% 45.84% 8.32%

St Senate 5th - Dearborn Heights, Detroit, and Inkster - This is a minority majority district based in Detroit. Dearborn Heights separates black majority Inkster and Detroit, so it's included. Detroit itself is the most democrat city over 100,000 people in the country. Tupac Hunter is the incumbent.


St Senate 5th GOP  Dem 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
06 - Malhalab/Hunter 8,164 56,252 1510      65,926 -48088 12.38% 85.33% -72.94%
02 - Patrick/Leland 10,334 49,780
     60,114 -39446 17.19% 82.81% -65.62%

St Rep 66 - Covers City of Brighton, Brighton Twp, Genoa Twp, Green Oak Twp, Marion Twp, and Oceola Twp in Livingston County, along with Milford Twp in Oakland County. Solidly Republican. Bill Rogers, former county commissioner, is the current representative winning an open seat in 2008 against Donna Anderson. Before Bill had the district, it was held by Chris Ward, Judie Scranton, and Susan Munsell. The election here is usually the primary.



St Rep 66th
GOP
Dem
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
08 - B.Rogers/Anderson
32,138
19,146
2020
     53,304
12992
60.29%
35.92%
24.37%
06 - Ward/McGonegal
27,774
14,472

     42,246
13302
65.74%
34.26%
31.49%
04 - Ward/Block
35,623
14,432

     50,055
21191
71.17%
28.83%
42.34%
02 - Ward/Block
23,599
8,826

     32,425
14773
72.78%
27.22%
45.56%

St Rep 44 - City of Clarkston, Highland Twp, Independence Twp, Springfield Twp, and White Lake Twp in Oakland County. This is probably the most republican seat in Oakland County.


St Rep 44th
GOP
Dem
3rd Party
Total
Diff.
GOP%
Dem%
Diff%
08 - E.Kowall/Venie
33,266
16,683

     49,949
16583
66.60%
33.40%
33.20%
06 - Stakoe/Venie
27,124
13,264

     40,388
13860
67.16%
32.84%
34.32%
04 - Stakoe/Scrase
33,596
14,498
1400
     49,494
19098
67.88%
29.29%
38.59%
02 - Stakoe/Bryan
22,788
9,748

     32,536
13040
70.04%
29.96%
40.08%

St Rep 43rd - Covers Waterford Twp and Northernmost West Bloomfield - This is a competitive seat which was a big battle in 2002. Gail Haines took the open seat in 2008 keeping it GOP in another extremely close race. This could be another battle in 2010.



St Rep 43rd GOP  Dem 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
08 - Haines/Hudson 20,219 19,373 1460      41,052 846 49.25% 47.19% 2.06%
06 - Amos/Riddell 19,292 13,406
     32,698 5886 59.00% 41.00% 18.00%
04 - Amos/Hudson 23,665 18,193
     41,858 5472 56.54% 43.46% 13.07%
02 - Amos/Fortino 14,788 13,157
     27,945 1631 52.92% 47.08% 5.84%


St Rep 38th - Covers Lyon Twp, City of Northville, City of Novi, Novi Twp, South Lyon, Walled Lake, and Wixom in Oakland County. Hugh Crawford won the open seat in 2008.


St Rep 38th GOP  Dem 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
08 - Crawford/Tindall 27,840 20,547
     48,387 7293 57.54% 42.46% 15.07%
06 - DeRoche/Jarrell 21,803 14,595
     36,398 7208 59.90% 40.10% 19.80%
04 - DeRoche/Morgan 27,406 17,234
     44,640 10172 61.39% 38.61% 22.79%
02 - DeRoche/Premo 18,561 9,973
     28,534 8588 65.05% 34.95% 30.10%

St Rep 21st - Covers Belleville, Van Buren Twp, and part of Canton Twp in Wayne County - This district flipped in an 08 open seat. It was beforehand Bruce Patterson and Phil LaJoy's seat for a 12 year period. It was a competitive district, but the blue reached the bottom of the ticket in 08 with Canton's flip, along with Van Buren and Belleville. Dian Slavens is the incumbent.


St Rep 21st GOP  Dem 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
08 - T.LaJoy/D.Slavens 24,204 27,805 1784      53,793 -3601 44.99% 51.69% -6.69%
06 - P.LaJoy/Sinis 21,481 16,775
     38,256 4706 56.15% 43.85% 12.30%
04 - P.LaJoy/Mayer 27,225 19,979
     47,204 7246 57.68% 42.32% 15.35%
02 - P.LaJoy/M.Slavens 15,591 12,769 640      29,000 2822 53.76% 44.03% 9.73%

St Rep 20th - Covers part of Canton Twp, City of Northville, Northville Twp,City of Plymouth, Plymouth Twp, and the City of Wayne in Wayne County. Infighting thanks to RINO John Stewart caused a lot of problems here. RINOS to me aren't liberal Republicans. RINOs to me are people like Stewart who really are democrats who support them. Stewart finally switched parties now, but he backed Obama, and revealed himself to have backed Kerry and Gore too. He was considering a senate run, but apparently isn't going for it. I hope he runs and gets trounced by someone downriver. He wouldn't sell down there. Too leftist and doesn't understand working people. Marc Corriveau is the democrat, and is actually an improvement over Stewart if you can say that. He won in 06 and 08 with one term left. Wayne made the difference, along with the City of Plymouth (competitive) and Northville (which flipped). He made it close in Plymouth Twp, which allowed Wayne to give him the win. This will be an important takeover attempt in 2010. Hopefully with Stewey out of the way causing problems, the GOP will be united between moderates and conservatives to take Michigan back.


St Rep 20th GOP  Dem 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
08 - Vorva/Corriveau 21,142 30,415
     51,557 -9273 41.01% 58.99% -17.99%
06 - Abbo/Corriveau 19,146 20,056
     39,202 -910 48.84% 51.16% -2.32%
04 - Stewart/Corriveau 28,732 19,448
     48,180 9284 59.63% 40.37% 19.27%
02 - Stewart/Blackwell 19,910 11,581 1027      32,518 8329 61.23% 35.61% 25.61%

St Rep 19th - Most of the City of Livonia in Wayne County - This is the only GOP state seat right now in Wayne County. John Walsh had a big win for the open seat here. This is a must defense seat if the house will be taken back in 2010.


St Rep 19th GOP  Dem 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
08 - Walsh/King 29,752 19,829
     49,581 9923 60.01% 39.99% 20.01%
06 - Pastor/Duggan 22,632 18,377
     41,009 4255 55.19% 44.81% 10.38%
04 - Pastor/Gebhardt 26,265 23,168
     49,433 3097 53.13% 46.87% 6.27%
02 - Pastor/Lowry 22,170 12,210 895      35,275 9960 62.85% 34.61% 28.24%

St Rep 18th - City of Westland in Wayne County. This district has been democrat for at least 12 years, probably more. They prefer more cultural moderates and populists than they do Ann Arbor types. Richard LeBlanc is a two term incumbent who won in 06 and 08. Glenn Anderson and Eileen DeHart held the seat before LeBlanc. This is a John Dingell type of district.


St Rep 18th GOP  Dem 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
08 - LeBlanc
28,955 3730      32,685 -28955 0.00% 88.59% -88.59%
06 - Durante/LeBlanc 6,298 19,067 710      26,075 -12769 24.15% 73.12% -48.97%
04 - Lipford/Anderson 10,811 22,773 541      34,125 -11962 31.68% 66.73% -35.05%
02 - Lipford/Anderson 6,218 14,619
     20,837 -8401 29.84% 70.16% -40.32%

St Rep 17th - Covers part of Dearborn Heights, Redford Twp, and a small part of Livonia in Wayne County. This was actually competitive in 2002, although the district has been democrat since somewhat pro-gun democrat Bob Brown took over in the 1990's over an anti-gun Republican. Since then the seat voted for Brown, Paltenko, and most recently Andy Dillon. This district is now similar to the Westland district in politics.


St Rep 17th GOP  Dem 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
08 - Eggers/Dillon 14,311 27,864
     42,175 -13553 33.93% 66.07% -32.14%
06 - Clampitt/Dillon 7,336 25,158
     32,494 -17822 22.58% 77.42% -54.85%
04 - Husk/Dillon 16,202 25,180 1084      42,466 -8978 38.15% 59.29% -21.14%
02 - Handy/Paltenko 14,091 14,772 907      29,770 -681 47.33% 49.62% -2.29%


St Rep 16th - Covers Allen Park, part of Dearborn Heights, Garden City, and Inkster in Wayne County. This district is solidly democrat with Garden City and Inkster as the anchors. Bob Constan is the current rep.


St Rep 16th GOP  Dem 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
08 - Smith/Constan 9,133 28,195
     37,328 -19062 24.47% 75.53% -51.07%
06 - DeLozier/Constan 7,002 19,346
     26,348 -12344 26.58% 73.42% -46.85%
04 - Lauster/Plakas 9,259 25,756 1626      36,641 -16497 25.27% 70.29% -45.02%
02 - Homeier/Plakas 5,595 16,693 913      23,201 -11098 24.12% 71.95% -47.83%

This is a competitive district that must be competed for in every election. McCotter dodged a bullet in 2008 considering the amount of money the democrat spent in that campaign. One guarantee is that he won't be caught off guard in 2010. This will be a district to watch in 2010, and is a must win for the GOP to take back the house, and also a must win at the top of the ticket as well take back state government from Granholm's poor job as governor. 

Updated 5-18-2010 - I think we dodged two bullets for this district. One is Andy Dillon, running for governor. The other is Glenn Anderson who is running for re-election as state senator. Natalie Mosher is relatively unknown, and isn't who I'd expect the democrats to send to go after McCotter who had a narrow win in 2008. I still wouldn't take this seat for granted, but I'm less concerned now than I was going into this cycle.