Saturday, July 30, 2011

State Senate Redistricting - District 19 (SD-19)

State Senate - District 19
Current Rep – Mike Nofs (R-Battle Creek)

2010 Results - Old District (19th)
Mike Nofs - 46,543
Brenda Abbey - 26,657

The old 19th (Calhoun and part of Jackson County) was the swing district of swing districts. It generally mirrors the trend of the country. It was open in 2002 and went for Mark Schauer. Mike Nofs won it in a special election after Schauer won his congressional race in 2008. Nofs won re-election easily. The old 19th voted for Bush, Granholm, and Obama.

The new 19th is much more republican, dropping its portion of Jackson County (competitive, maybe slight republican) and picks up GOP stronghold Barry County from the 24th district and GOP leaning Ionia County from the 33rd district. The Jackson portion went to the 16th district.

The only way this district will flip is if the GOP candidate loses Calhoun County by a gigantic margin, and also underperforms in Barry/Ionia.  This district isn't safe, but leans GOP.



McCain Obama Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Barry County 16431 13449 29880 2982 54.99% 45.01% 9.98%
Calhoun County 28553 34561 63114 -6008 45.24% 54.76% -9.52%
Ionia County 14156 12565 26721 1591 52.98% 47.02% 5.95%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 59140 60575 119715 -1435 49.40% 50.60% -1.20%









Bush Kerry Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Barry County 18638 11312 29950 7326 62.23% 37.77% 24.46%
Calhoun County 32093 29891 61984 2202 51.78% 48.22% 3.55%
Ionia County 16621 10647 27268 5974 60.95% 39.05% 21.91%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 67352 51850 119202 15502 56.50% 43.50% 13.00%








Last St Senate GOP Dem Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Barry County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Calhoun County 25918 14855 40773 11063 63.57% 36.43% 27.13%
Ionia County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 25918 14855 40773 11063 63.57% 36.43% 27.13%

No comments: