Thursday, June 30, 2011

Congressional District 10 - Redistricted (MI-10)


Incumbents - Candice Miller (R-Harrison Twp)
Years in office as of 2012 election - 10
The old 10th district is here

Challengers - Chuck Stadler (D-Vassar)

Update 8-30-2012 - Stadler won his primary.

Update - 5-16-2012 - Two dems are challenging Miller. I don't get why someone filing with a Rochester address is doing so.

This is probably the most unchanged district outside of maybe the 6th district. It doesn't lose anything except part of Sterling Heights which is already split. It picks up most of Tuscola County from Dale Kildee. Other than that, it stays the same. This district has been safe for Candice Miller, and was won by even McCain. I still wouldn't call it "safe" because there's been so much volatility at the local levels. There are plenty of ticket splitters in both Macomb County, and the thumb. Sanilac County will sometimes go 60%+ for candidates in both parties. The Huron/Tuscola district will vote for Mike Green, Jim Barcia, and John Espinoza by big numbers.

Miller has never had a difficult race for Congress running way ahead of Bush and McCain. Even Marlinga lost about 2-1 here. Most of the reps that could make things interesting have been defeated. The only one I see as a major threat off the top of my head is Mark Hackel, who is the new county executive. Hackel lives in Sterling Heights, so he could be in either Macomb County district.Outside of Hackel running, I don't see any competitive races here anytime soon unless Miller runs for Governor or Senate.


2008







McCain Obama Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Huron County 8434 8367 16801 67 50.20% 49.80% 0.40%
Lapeer County 22831 21457 44288 1374 51.55% 48.45% 3.10%
Sanilac County 10679 9047 19726 1632 54.14% 45.86% 8.27%
St Clair County 38536 40677 79213 -2141 48.65% 51.35% -2.70%
Tuscola County 13740 13503 27243 237 50.43% 49.57% 0.87%
Arbela Twp -722 -842 -1564 120 46.16% 53.84% -7.67%
Denmark Twp -1086 -615 -1701 -471 63.84% 36.16% 27.69%
Gilford Twp -246 -177 -423 -69 58.16% 41.84% 16.31%
Millington Twp -1083 -1182 -2265 99 47.81% 52.19% -4.37%
Tuscola Twp -665 -428 -1093 -237 60.84% 39.16% 21.68%
Vassar City -556 -658 -1214 102 45.80% 54.20% -8.40%
Vassar Twp (part) -874 -966 -1840 92 47.50% 52.50% -5.00%
Macomb County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Armada Twp 1604 1252 2856 352 56.16% 43.84% 12.32%
Bruce Twp 2854 2041 4895 813 58.30% 41.70% 16.61%
Chesterfield Twp 10019 11050 21069 -1031 47.55% 52.45% -4.89%
Harrison Twp 6610 6726 13336 -116 49.57% 50.43% -0.87%
Lenox Twp 1880 2369 4249 -489 44.25% 55.75% -11.51%
Macomb Twp 19579 18952 38531 627 50.81% 49.19% 1.63%
New Baltimore City 3003 2971 5974 32 50.27% 49.73% 0.54%
Ray Twp 1296 780 2076 516 62.43% 37.57% 24.86%
Richmond City 1454 1378 2832 76 51.34% 48.66% 2.68%
Richmond Twp 1142 723 1865 419 61.23% 38.77% 22.47%
Shelby Twp 20607 16877 37484 3730 54.98% 45.02% 9.95%
Sterling Heights (1/3) 9078 10563 19641 -1485 46.22% 53.78% -7.56%
Utica City 1099 1228 2327 -129 47.23% 52.77% -5.54%
Washington Twp 7741 5392 13133 2349 58.94% 41.06% 17.89%
Total 176954 170485 347439 6469 50.93% 49.07% 1.86%








2008







Bush Kerry Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Huron County 9671 7629 17300 2042 55.90% 44.10% 11.80%
Lapeer County 25556 18086 43642 7470 58.56% 41.44% 17.12%
Sanilac County 12632 7883 20515 4749 61.57% 38.43% 23.15%
St Clair County 42740 36174 78914 6566 54.16% 45.84% 8.32%
Tuscola County 15389 12631 28020 2758 54.92% 45.08% 9.84%
Arbela Twp -722 -842 -1564 120 46.16% 53.84% -7.67%
Denmark Twp -1086 -615 -1701 -471 63.84% 36.16% 27.69%
Gilford Twp -246 -177 -423 -69 58.16% 41.84% 16.31%
Millington Twp -1083 -1182 -2265 99 47.81% 52.19% -4.37%
Tuscola Twp -665 -428 -1093 -237 60.84% 39.16% 21.68%
Vassar City -556 -658 -1214 102 45.80% 54.20% -8.40%
Vassar Twp (part) -874 -966 -1840 92 47.50% 52.50% -5.00%
Macomb County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Armada Twp 1797 1062 2859 735 62.85% 37.15% 25.71%
Bruce Twp 2976 1731 4707 1245 63.22% 36.78% 26.45%
Chesterfield Twp 10533 8853 19386 1680 54.33% 45.67% 8.67%
Harrison Twp 6946 5906 12852 1040 54.05% 45.95% 8.09%
Lenox Twp 1890 1736 3626 154 52.12% 47.88% 4.25%
Macomb Twp 19496 14342 33838 5154 57.62% 42.38% 15.23%
New Baltimore City 3103 2440 5543 663 55.98% 44.02% 11.96%
Ray Twp 1315 707 2022 608 65.03% 34.97% 30.07%
Richmond City 1610 1177 2787 433 57.77% 42.23% 15.54%
Richmond Twp 1156 674 1830 482 63.17% 36.83% 26.34%
Shelby Twp 20921 13452 34373 7469 60.86% 39.14% 21.73%
Sterling Heights (1/3) 10192 9470 19662 722 51.84% 48.16% 3.67%
Utica City 1147 1077 2224 70 51.57% 48.43% 3.15%
Washington Twp 7526 4300 11826 3226 63.64% 36.36% 27.28%
Total 191364 144462 335826 46902 56.98% 43.02% 13.97%

Congressional District 9 - Redistricting (MI-09)


Incumbents - Gary Peters (D-Bloomfield Twp) and Sander Levin (D-Royal Oak/Roseville) - Peters is running in the 14th District.
Years in office as of 2012 election - 2 and 30

Challengers - Don Volaric (R-Clinton Twp)

Update 8-30-2012 - Volaric won his primary and will be facing Levin. Peters won the primary in the 14th District. 

Update 5-16-2012 - Volaric is seeking a 12th district rematch with Levin. Dildillian is running as well.

The old 9th district was practically eliminated. It was divided up and parts were given to Mike Rogers, Thad McCotter, John Conyers, and Sander Levin. This is really more of a descendant of the old 12th district. The new 12th district is a combination of the old 15th and 1990's era 16th districts of John Dingell.

I'm going to analyze this district from the perspective of this being the 12th and Sander Levin's district since this is much more his district than Peters. Levin long represented SE Oakland County, and has also had SW Macomb county for years as well. He can move back to Royal Oak for this district too.

Levin gives up the City of Southfield, Oak Park, Lathrup Village, and Royal Oak Township to John Conyers. He picks up Berkley, Royal Oak, Madison Heights, Southfield Township (Bingham Farms/Franklin), part of Clawson, and Bloomfield Township from the old 9th district. The district still splits Sterling Heights and has about 2/3 of it. Gary Peters is in this district as well. Peters has several options. He can run for Oakland County executive as rumored, or against Levin, McCotter, Conyers, or Rogers (he was once city council in Rochester Hills).

This district, like the old 12th is a blue sink. It's not as much of one as the old 12th since the bluest part went to John Conyers. It's gone from an approximate 68000 Kerry and 104000 Obama vote spread to "closer" numbers of about 26000 and 66000 vote spreads. It's still out of reach outside of a best case scenario (1980 Reagan) but a district I'd look to contest in a year like 2010. Tory Rocca might be able to win this district in a 2010 type of year. It'd be a longshot, but I wouldn't call it impossible. If lesser known Don Volaric can hold Levin to about a 20000 vote spread in this portion of the district, then Rocca could probably at least cut that in half without a lot of trouble....in a 2010 year.

Overall though, my money is on Levin holding this district if he doesn't want to retire at 81. Peters won't sell in Warren, and Levin will trump him in the Huntington Woods types of areas. Even if Levin retires, one of many strong South Macomb democrats may want to go after Peters in a primary and would have a good shot, especially if he had a Polish or Italian last name.


2008







McCain Obama Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Macomb County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Center Line 1431 2462 3893 -1031 36.76% 63.24% -26.48%
Clinton Twp 21133 27722 48855 -6589 43.26% 56.74% -13.49%
Eastpointe 4670 11182 15852 -6512 29.46% 70.54% -41.08%
Fraser 3601 4161 7762 -560 46.39% 53.61% -7.21%
Lake Twp/GP Shores 27 13 40 14 67.50% 32.50% 35.00%
Mt Clemens 2393 5171 7564 -2778 31.64% 68.36% -36.73%
Roseville 7679 13739 21418 -6060 35.85% 64.15% -28.29%
St Clair Shores 16098 18531 34629 -2433 46.49% 53.51% -7.03%
Sterling Hghts (2/3) 18157 21126 39283 -2969 46.22% 53.78% -7.56%
Warren 24006 36901 60907 -12895 39.41% 60.59% -21.17%
Oakland County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Berkley 3560 5715 9275 -2155 38.38% 61.62% -23.23%
Bloomfield Twp 14368 12886 27254 1482 52.72% 47.28% 5.44%
Clawson (1/5) 600 782 1382 -182 43.42% 56.58% -13.17%
Ferndale 2621 8532 11153 -5911 23.50% 76.50% -53.00%
Hazel Park 2279 4461 6740 -2182 33.81% 66.19% -32.37%
Huntington Woods 1041 3255 4296 -2214 24.23% 75.77% -51.54%
Madison Heights 5088 8017 13105 -2929 38.82% 61.18% -22.35%
Pleasant Ridge 512 1311 1823 -799 28.09% 71.91% -43.83%
Royal Oak 13094 21650 34744 -8556 37.69% 62.31% -24.63%
Southfield Twp 4570 4925 9495 -355 48.13% 51.87% -3.74%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 146928 212542 359470 -65614 40.87% 59.13% -18.25%








2004







Bush Kerry Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Macomb County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Center Line 1613 2312 3925 -699 41.10% 58.90% -17.81%
Clinton Twp 23332 23842 47174 -510 49.46% 50.54% -1.08%
Eastpointe 5838 9766 15604 -3928 37.41% 62.59% -25.17%
Fraser 3893 3959 7852 -66 49.58% 50.42% -0.84%
Lake Twp/GP Shores 33 15 48 18 68.75% 31.25% 37.50%
Mt Clemens 2766 4419 7185 -1653 38.50% 61.50% -23.01%
Roseville 8660 12738 21398 -4078 40.47% 59.53% -19.06%
St Clair Shores 17512 18088 35600 -576 49.19% 50.81% -1.62%
Sterling Hghts (2/3) 20385 18941 39326 1444 51.84% 48.16% 3.67%
Warren 26991 34697 61688 -7706 43.75% 56.25% -12.49%
Oakland County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Berkley 4315 5027 9342 -712 46.19% 53.81% -7.62%
Bloomfield Twp 16314 11197 27511 5117 59.30% 40.70% 18.60%
Clawson (1/5) 716 694 1410 22 50.78% 49.22% 1.56%
Ferndale 3456 7637 11093 -4181 31.15% 68.85% -37.69%
Hazel Park 2780 4412 7192 -1632 38.65% 61.35% -22.69%
Huntington Woods 1236 3068 4304 -1832 28.72% 71.28% -42.57%
Madison Heights 5934 7443 13377 -1509 44.36% 55.64% -11.28%
Pleasant Ridge 658 1140 1798 -482 36.60% 63.40% -26.81%
Royal Oak 15529 19143 34672 -3614 44.79% 55.21% -10.42%
Southfield Twp 5245 4376 9621 869 54.52% 45.48% 9.03%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 167206 192914 360120 -25708 46.43% 53.57% -7.14%









Volaric Levin Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Macomb County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Center Line 876 1405 2281 -529 38.40% 61.60% -23.19%
Clinton Twp 14475 14784 29259 -309 49.47% 50.53% -1.06%
Eastpointe 2859 6438 9297 -3579 30.75% 69.25% -38.50%
Fraser 2423 2345 4768 78 50.82% 49.18% 1.64%
Lake Twp/GP Shores 21 12 33 9 63.64% 36.36% 27.27%
Mt Clemens 1597 2785 4382 -1188 36.44% 63.56% -27.11%
Roseville 4663 7051 11714 -2388 39.81% 60.19% -20.39%
St Clair Shores 11182 11898 23080 -716 48.45% 51.55% -3.10%
Sterling Hghts (2/3) 5003 5385 10388 -382 48.16% 51.84% -3.68%
Warren 15443 20860 36303 -5417 42.54% 57.46% -14.92%
Oakland County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Berkley

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Bloomfield Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Clawson (1/5)

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Ferndale 1649 4693 6342 -3044 26.00% 74.00% -48.00%
Hazel Park 1263 2034 3297 -771 38.31% 61.69% -23.38%
Huntington Woods 763 2440 3203 -1677 23.82% 76.18% -52.36%
Madison Heights 3240 4089 7329 -849 44.21% 55.79% -11.58%
Pleasant Ridge 403 930 1333 -527 30.23% 69.77% -39.53%
Royal Oak 732 1148 1880 -416 38.94% 61.06% -22.13%
Southfield Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 66592 88297 154889 -21705 42.99% 57.01% -14.01%

Congressional District 8 - Redistricted (MI-08)


Incumbent - Mike Rogers (R-Brighton/Howell)
Years in office as of 2012 election - 12
The old 8th District information is here

Challengers -  Lance Enderle (D-Lansing),

Update 8-30-2012 - Mike won his primary and will rematch with Lance Enderle in the general.

UPDATE - 5-1-2012 - Lance Enderle for the dems is running in a rematch of the 2010 matchup. Enderle unlike last election has been the candidate from the start instead of replacing a quitter who dropped when he wasn't getting the funding he thought he would get.

UPDATE 5-16-2012 - Michael Magdich is a Wayne County recent transplant who wants to give us Wayne County politics. In addition Molnar (unless it is another Vernon Molnar) ran against John Gleason in another district. Hetrick I'm not familiar with, outside of hearing that name before somewhere.


The old 8th district had to actually shrink people because it was fast growing and other areas dropped their population. It dropped Clinton and Shiawassee Counties, giving them back to Dave Camp. It picked up Oakland Township, the rest of Orion Township, Rochester, and most of Rochester Hills in Oakland County. That was picked up from Gary Peters.

The old district had about a 29000 vote spread for Bush and about a 26000 vote spread for Obama. The new district had about a 34000 vote spread for Bush and 21000 vote spread for Obama. I think it's actually slightly tougher for Mike though since he always ran well in Clinton and Shiawassee Counties and is giving those areas up.

I'm putting up the 08 numbers for Mike instead of 2010. The dems in 2010 for this district were an absolute joke. Kande Ngalamulume was the original opponent. He ran, and then whined and quit when major financial support did not immediately go his way. He didn't show that he was stronger than Bob Alexander or Jim Marcinkowski. Nglamulume and his campaign manager didn't like that so they whined about the lack of support, quit, and moved backed to Pennsylvania. He still won the primary against a write in candidate by Lande Enderle. Enderle actually wasn't a joke and did the best he could in a no-win situation. Eventually due to Nglamulume's move, Enderle was able to get on the ballot as a replacement although there wasn't much time for a candidacy.

Any district with Lansing, East Lansing, and Okemos together is never going to be truly safe for a Republican. Any district with North Oakland and Livingston County together is never going to be safe for a democrat. North Oakland is like the old Oakland County of the 80's. Livingston County hasn't voted for a democrat countywide since Frank Kelley in either 1990 or 1986.

Under the old district, North Oakland had a 19000 vote spread for Bush and 9000 spread for McCain. Livingston was almost 25000 and 14000. Ingham County outside of the Lansing area is competitive. It had a 6500 vote spread for Bush and about a 300 vote spread for Obama. The Lansing area however was about a 26000 vote spread for Kerry and almost 48000 vote spread for Obama. To win this district you have to rack up big numbers with the base votes, and also reduce your opponent's base. Rogers runs well in Ingham County, specifically the rural areas and to a lesser extent, Lansing. In 2008, Rogers lost the Lansing area by less than half of what McCain did and won the new portion district with about 45000 votes to spare.

The only way I see Rogers not running for re-election in this district is if he's bumped off the Intelligence Committee. That's the one he wanted for years. If he runs for senate or governor, he'll have to give up his chairmanship of the committee. I don't think he wants to do that. If this seat opens up there's no shortage of strong candidates. On the GOP side, Joe Hune, Bill Rogers, Jim Marleau, Cindy Denby, and Ruth Johnson could win this. On the dems side, Virg Bernero, Gretchen Whitmer, Dianne or Barb Byrum, or Dave Hollister could be a threat.




2008







McCain Obama Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Ingham County 46483 93994 140477 -47511 33.09% 66.91% -33.82%
Livingston County 55592 42349 97941 13243 56.76% 43.24% 13.52%
Oakland County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Addison Twp 2248 1339 3587 909 62.67% 37.33% 25.34%
Brandon Twp 4834 3564 8398 1270 57.56% 42.44% 15.12%
Clarkston City 298 252 550 46 54.18% 45.82% 8.36%
Groveland Twp 1769 1275 3044 494 58.11% 41.89% 16.23%
Holly Twp 2678 2969 5647 -291 47.42% 52.58% -5.15%
Independence Twp 11000 8253 19253 2747 57.13% 42.87% 14.27%
Oakland Twp 5965 3679 9644 2286 61.85% 38.15% 23.70%
Orion Twp 10042 8512 18554 1530 54.12% 45.88% 8.25%
Oxford Twp 5836 4484 10320 1352 56.55% 43.45% 13.10%
Rochester  3515 3319 6834 196 51.43% 48.57% 2.87%
Rochester Hills (part) 19919 18834 38753 1085 51.40% 48.60% 2.80%
Rose Twp 1936 1573 3509 363 55.17% 44.83% 10.34%
Springfield Twp 4654 3176 7830 1478 59.44% 40.56% 18.88%
Total 176769 197572 374341 -20803 47.22% 52.78% -5.56%









Bush  Kerry Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Ingham County 54734 76877 131611 -22143 41.59% 58.41% -16.82%
Livingston County 58860 33991 92851 24869 63.39% 36.61% 26.78%
Oakland County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Addison Twp 2406 1113 3519 1293 68.37% 31.63% 36.74%
Brandon Twp 4852 3030 7882 1822 61.56% 38.44% 23.12%
Clarkston City 322 252 574 70 56.10% 43.90% 12.20%
Groveland Twp 1988 1204 3192 784 62.28% 37.72% 24.56%
Holly Twp 2813 2442 5255 371 53.53% 46.47% 7.06%
Independence Twp 12199 6847 19046 5352 64.05% 35.95% 28.10%
Oakland Twp 6212 2898 9110 3314 68.19% 31.81% 36.38%
Orion Twp 11362 6887 18249 4475 62.26% 37.74% 24.52%
Oxford Twp 6155 3577 9732 2578 63.24% 36.76% 26.49%
Rochester  3979 2647 6626 1332 60.05% 39.95% 20.10%
Rochester Hills (part) 22733 15571 38304 7162 59.35% 40.65% 18.70%
Rose Twp 2139 1337 3476 802 61.54% 38.46% 23.07%
Springfield Twp 4946 2710 7656 2236 64.60% 35.40% 29.21%
Total 195700 161383 357083 34317 54.81% 45.19% 9.61%








2008







Rogers Alexander Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Ingham County 60867 72386 133253 -11519 45.68% 54.32% -8.64%
Livingston County 63946 29186 93132 34760 68.66% 31.34% 37.32%
Oakland County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Addison Twp 2310 940 3250 1370 71.08% 28.92% 42.15%
Brandon Twp 4504 2693 7197 1811 62.58% 37.42% 25.16%
Clarkston City 344 179 523 165 65.77% 34.23% 31.55%
Groveland Twp 1813 943 2756 870 65.78% 34.22% 31.57%
Holly Twp 2897 2296 5193 601 55.79% 44.21% 11.57%
Independence Twp 12137 5678 17815 6459 68.13% 31.87% 36.26%
Oakland Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Orion Twp 8429 4202 12631 4227 66.73% 33.27% 33.47%
Oxford Twp 6088 3237 9325 2851 65.29% 34.71% 30.57%
Rochester 

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Rochester Hills (part)

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Rose Twp 2093 1122 3215 971 65.10% 34.90% 30.20%
Springfield Twp 4968 2222 7190 2746 69.10% 30.90% 38.19%
Total 170396 125084 295480 45312 57.67% 42.33% 15.34%

Congressional District 7 - Redistricted (MI-07)


Incumbent - Tim Walberg (R-Tipton)
Years in office as of 2012 election - 4, non consecutive.
The old 7th District information is here

Challengers -  Kurt Richard Haskell (D-Newport)

Update 8-30-2012 - Haskell and Walberg won their primaries. The dem establishment got some heartburn from Haskell's win. 

Update 5-16-2012 - Tim Walberg caught a break. Three democrats would have been a very competitive race. I don't think Marquez will do so. Haskell is an interesting candidate, all over the place with his views. He was interviewed often as a witness in the underwear bomber case.

This district has changed quite a bit. It's still a swing district. It drops Calhoun County to Justin Amash, where Tim Walberg is strongly disliked. It also drops about 1/2 of Scio Township to Dingell, which is a major democrat stronghold in Washtenaw County. Walberg is only stuck with the "Dexter" part. That's the good news. It picks up York Township instead. The bad news for Walberg is that it adds the City of Milan and Augusta Township in Washtenaw County, as well as all of Monroe County, a swing area that leans slightly democrat, although not as much as it used to. It's about the same as Calhoun County from a partisan standpoint, although it's an unknown in its view of Walberg compared to Eaton (which he still has) and Calhoun Counties. Jackson County and Lenawee Counties are big key swing areas, as is Eaton County. The Washtenaw County portion is still competitive and slightly less democrat dropping the eastern portion of Scio Township. Hillsdale and Branch Counties are still key base areas.

The biggest change though is its homers. The bench for the democrats is smaller in this district compared to the old one. Mark Schauer won't have a rematch. RINO Joe Schwarz won't be stiring up as much trouble either, at least against the guy who made him taste humble pie in a big way.

The hypothetical is this. In a bad year like 08, would Walberg have survived? He had to not lose Augusta, York, Milan, and Monroe County by somewhere between 3700 and 4000 votes. (Scio's spread is likely less than 1480, that's just half of the whole thing). McCain didn't, but Walberg was actually much stronger than McCain. Who knows. In years like 2010, there's plenty to spare.

Obama has about a 12700 vote spread. Bush a 32000 vote spread. Walberg had about a 3800 vote spread in 08 and about a 13300 vote spread in 2010 in the portion of the new district he already represents.


2008







McCain Obama Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Branch County 9534 8413 17947 1121 53.12% 46.88% 6.25%
Eaton County 25900 30742 56642 -4842 45.73% 54.27% -8.55%
Hillsdale County 11221 8765 19986 2456 56.14% 43.86% 12.29%
Jackson County 35692 37480 73172 -1788 48.78% 51.22% -2.44%
Lenawee County 22225 24640 46865 -2415 47.42% 52.58% -5.15%
Monroe County 35858 39180 75038 -3322 47.79% 52.21% -4.43%
Washtenaw County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Augusta Twp 1489 1979 3468 -490 42.94% 57.06% -14.13%
Bridgewater Twp 526 481 1007 45 52.23% 47.77% 4.47%
Chelsea City 1214 1748 2962 -534 40.99% 59.01% -18.03%
Dexter Twp  1730 2064 3794 -334 45.60% 54.40% -8.80%
Freedom Twp 481 428 909 53 52.92% 47.08% 5.83%
Lima Twp 973 973 1946 0 50.00% 50.00% 0.00%
Lodi Twp 1894 1803 3697 91 51.23% 48.77% 2.46%
Lyndon Twp 735 843 1578 -108 46.58% 53.42% -6.84%
Manchester Twp 1241 1424 2665 -183 46.57% 53.43% -6.87%
Milan City 802 1151 1953 -349 41.07% 58.93% -17.87%
Northfield Twp 2109 2310 4419 -201 47.73% 52.27% -4.55%
Salem Twp 2067 1510 3577 557 57.79% 42.21% 15.57%
Saline City 2221 2906 5127 -685 43.32% 56.68% -13.36%
Saline Twp 539 507 1046 32 51.53% 48.47% 3.06%
Scio Twp (partial) 1886 3854 5740 -1968 32.86% 67.14% -34.29%
Sharon Twp 556 503 1059 53 52.50% 47.50% 5.00%
Sylvan Twp 919 996 1915 -77 47.99% 52.01% -4.02%
Webster Twp 1911 2186 4097 -275 46.64% 53.36% -6.71%
York Twp 2313 1934 4247 379 54.46% 45.54% 8.92%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 166036 178820 344856 -12784 48.15% 51.85% -3.71%








2004







Bush Kerry Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Branch County 10784 7004 17788 3780 60.63% 39.37% 21.25%
Eaton County 29781 25411 55192 4370 53.96% 46.04% 7.92%
Hillsdale County 12804 7123 19927 5681 64.25% 35.75% 28.51%
Jackson County 40029 31025 71054 9004 56.34% 43.66% 12.67%
Lenawee County 25675 20787 46462 4888 55.26% 44.74% 10.52%
Monroe County 37470 36089 73559 1381 50.94% 49.06% 1.88%
Washtenaw County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Augusta Twp 1411 1599 3010 -188 46.88% 53.12% -6.25%
Bridgewater Twp 550 352 902 198 60.98% 39.02% 21.95%
Chelsea City 1300 1490 2790 -190 46.59% 53.41% -6.81%
Dexter Twp (not city) 1909 1672 3581 237 53.31% 46.69% 6.62%
Freedom Twp 481 405 886 76 54.29% 45.71% 8.58%
Lima Twp 926 709 1635 217 56.64% 43.36% 13.27%
Lodi Twp 2104 1590 3694 514 56.96% 43.04% 13.91%
Lyndon Twp 812 718 1530 94 53.07% 46.93% 6.14%
Manchester Twp 1299 1168 2467 131 52.66% 47.34% 5.31%
Milan City 822 822 1644 0 50.00% 50.00% 0.00%
Northfield Twp 2325 2027 4352 298 53.42% 46.58% 6.85%
Salem Twp 2130 1330 3460 800 61.56% 38.44% 23.12%
Saline City 2658 2418 5076 240 52.36% 47.64% 4.73%
Saline Twp 612 464 1076 148 56.88% 43.12% 13.75%
Scio Twp (partial) 2122 3181 5303 -1059 40.02% 59.98% -19.97%
Sharon Twp 630 440 1070 190 58.88% 41.12% 17.76%
Sylvan Twp 983 819 1802 164 54.55% 45.45% 9.10%
Webster Twp 2097 1707 3804 390 55.13% 44.87% 10.25%
York Twp 2367 1623 3990 744 59.32% 40.68% 18.65%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 184081 151973 336054 32108 54.78% 45.22% 9.55%








2008







Walberg Schauer Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Branch County 9866 6878 16744 2988 58.92% 41.08% 17.85%
Eaton County 24878 27655 52533 -2777 47.36% 52.64% -5.29%
Hillsdale County 12015 6981 18996 5034 63.25% 36.75% 26.50%
Jackson County 34231 34978 69209 -747 49.46% 50.54% -1.08%
Lenawee County 22953 22019 44972 934 51.04% 48.96% 2.08%
Monroe County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Washtenaw County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Augusta Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Bridgewater Twp 523 428 951 95 54.99% 45.01% 9.99%
Chelsea City 1156 1567 2723 -411 42.45% 57.55% -15.09%
Dexter Twp (not city) 1623 1925 3548 -302 45.74% 54.26% -8.51%
Freedom Twp 461 397 858 64 53.73% 46.27% 7.46%
Lima Twp 921 854 1775 67 51.89% 48.11% 3.77%
Lodi Twp 1905 1551 3456 354 55.12% 44.88% 10.24%
Lyndon Twp 687 769 1456 -82 47.18% 52.82% -5.63%
Manchester Twp 1197 1273 2470 -76 48.46% 51.54% -3.08%
Milan City

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Northfield Twp 1845 2119 3964 -274 46.54% 53.46% -6.91%
Salem Twp 1858 1349 3207 509 57.94% 42.06% 15.87%
Saline City 2235 2484 4719 -249 47.36% 52.64% -5.28%
Saline Twp 556 416 972 140 57.20% 42.80% 14.40%
Scio Twp (partial) 1825 3305 5130 -1480 35.58% 64.42% -28.85%
Sharon Twp 542 447 989 95 54.80% 45.20% 9.61%
Sylvan Twp 896 877 1773 19 50.54% 49.46% 1.07%
Webster Twp 1849 1971 3820 -122 48.40% 51.60% -3.19%
York Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 124022 120243 244265 3779 50.77% 49.23% 1.55%








2010







Walberg Schauer Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Branch County 7243 4738 11981 2505 60.45% 39.55% 20.91%
Eaton County 18858 20142 39000 -1284 48.35% 51.65% -3.29%
Hillsdale County 8682 4594 13276 4088 65.40% 34.60% 30.79%
Jackson County 25512 21776 47288 3736 53.95% 46.05% 7.90%
Lenawee County 16510 14037 30547 2473 54.05% 45.95% 8.10%
Monroe County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Washtenaw County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Augusta Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Bridgewater Twp 416 279 695 137 59.86% 40.14% 19.71%
Chelsea City 935 1161 2096 -226 44.61% 55.39% -10.78%
Dexter Twp (not city) 1414 1311 2725 103 51.89% 48.11% 3.78%
Freedom Twp 392 277 669 115 58.59% 41.41% 17.19%
Lima Twp 803 631 1434 172 56.00% 44.00% 11.99%
Lodi Twp 1608 1141 2749 467 58.49% 41.51% 16.99%
Lyndon Twp 561 547 1108 14 50.63% 49.37% 1.26%
Manchester Twp 946 900 1846 46 51.25% 48.75% 2.49%
Milan City

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Northfield Twp 1622 1226 2848 396 56.95% 43.05% 13.90%
Salem Twp 1620 886 2506 734 64.64% 35.36% 29.29%
Saline City 1746 1695 3441 51 50.74% 49.26% 1.48%
Saline Twp 408 273 681 135 59.91% 40.09% 19.82%
Scio Twp (partial) 1516 2381 3897 -865 38.90% 61.10% -22.20%
Sharon Twp 480 337 817 143 58.75% 41.25% 17.50%
Sylvan Twp 745 638 1383 107 53.87% 46.13% 7.74%
Webster Twp 1636 1417 3053 219 53.59% 46.41% 7.17%
York Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 93653 80387 174040 13266 53.81% 46.19% 7.62%