Monday, January 09, 2012

State House Redistricting - District 50 (HD-50)

State House - District 50
Current Rep - Charles Smiley (D-Burton)

Candidates:
GOP - Miles Gadola (R-Grand Blanc)
Dem - Charles Smiley (D-Burton)

Update 5-26-2012 - This is what gets me about that whole Paul Scott recall in the first place. Redistricting would have caught him. All that recall did was set up Joe Graves in the 51st. There's no primary here. If it's a good year and Gadola runs a top shelf campaign with the help he needs, then he has a chance. Smiley is favored to win however with Burton.

2010 Results - Old District (50th)
Charles Smiley - 13,647
William Ralph - 12,134

Old District 51st
Paul Scott - 22,509
Art Reyes - 15,275

This district changed significantly from the old 50th. It drops everything except Burton and picks up Mundy Twp and Grand Blanc City/Twp from the old 51st. Paul Scott would be in this district, but he was recalled last November. If Joe Graves replaces him, he would be in the new 51st.

I can see this district being competitive in a 2010 type of year, but in most years it will lean democrat. While Bush won it in 04, the Grand Blanc area is not trending favorably with more of Flint moving there. Burton has been democrat as long as I remember, and Mundy Twp leans that way. It would take big numbers in Grand Blanc to win this district. This seat leans dem until proven otherwise.



McCain Obama Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Burton 4981 9057 14038 -4076 35.48% 64.52% -29.04%
Grand Blanc 1991 2411 4402 -420 45.23% 54.77% -9.54%
Grand Blanc Twp 8309 10951 19260 -2642 43.14% 56.86% -13.72%
Mundy Twp 3688 4807 8495 -1119 43.41% 56.59% -13.17%
Total 18969 27226 46195 -8257 41.06% 58.94% -17.87%









Bush Kerry Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Burton 5829 8304 14133 -2475 41.24% 58.76% -17.51%
Grand Blanc 2394 1985 4379 409 54.67% 45.33% 9.34%
Grand Blanc Twp 9369 8862 18231 507 51.39% 48.61% 2.78%
Mundy Twp 3999 4102 8101 -103 49.36% 50.64% -1.27%
Total 21591 23253 44844 -1662 48.15% 51.85% -3.71%








Last State House GOP Dem Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Burton 3610 4757 8367 -1147 43.15% 56.85% -13.71%
Grand Blanc

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Grand Blanc Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Mundy Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 3610 4757 8367 -1147 43.15% 56.85% -13.71%

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