Current Rep - Charles Smiley (D-Burton)
GOP - Miles Gadola (R-Grand Blanc)
Dem - Charles Smiley (D-Burton)
Update 5-26-2012 - This is what gets me about that whole Paul Scott recall in the first place. Redistricting would have caught him. All that recall did was set up Joe Graves in the 51st. There's no primary here. If it's a good year and Gadola runs a top shelf campaign with the help he needs, then he has a chance. Smiley is favored to win however with Burton.
2010 Results - Old District (50th)
Charles Smiley - 13,647
William Ralph - 12,134
Old District 51st
Paul Scott - 22,509
Art Reyes - 15,275
This district changed significantly from the old 50th. It drops everything except Burton and picks up Mundy Twp and Grand Blanc City/Twp from the old 51st. Paul Scott would be in this district, but he was recalled last November. If Joe Graves replaces him, he would be in the new 51st.
I can see this district being competitive in a 2010 type of year, but in most years it will lean democrat. While Bush won it in 04, the Grand Blanc area is not trending favorably with more of Flint moving there. Burton has been democrat as long as I remember, and Mundy Twp leans that way. It would take big numbers in Grand Blanc to win this district. This seat leans dem until proven otherwise.
|Grand Blanc Twp||8309||10951||19260||-2642||43.14%||56.86%||-13.72%|
|Grand Blanc Twp||9369||8862||18231||507||51.39%||48.61%||2.78%|
|Last State House||GOP||Dem||Total||Diff||GOP||DEM||Diff|
|Grand Blanc Twp||0||0||#DIV/0!||#DIV/0!||#DIV/0!|