Friday, February 10, 2012

State House Redistricting - District 71 (HD-71)

State House - District 71
Current Rep - Deb Shaughnessy (R-Charlotte)

Candidates:
GOP - Deb Shaughnessy (R-Charlotte)
Dem - Theresa Abed (D-Grand Ledge)

Update 5-27-2012 - Three way primary this year.  I'm keeping an eye on this one. I think Shaughnessy is favored, but this is a lean district at best.

Update 8-30-2012 - Abed won the primary and will have a rematch vs Shaughnessy

Old District (71st)
Deb Shaughnessy - 21,756
Theresa Abed - 15,514

This is a swing district on paper, but hasn't been strongly competitive on the state level. Eaton County is one of the most difficult counties for me to read. It's voted for Bush twice, Obama, Granholm twice, Liberal republican Joe Schwarz, Democrat Mark Schauer twice, and conservatives Sue Tabor and Rick Jones. It has a large population of state workers, but still tends to be more socially conservative once you get out of Delta Township or the Lansing portion of the district.

This district is unchanged outside of dropping slightly Republican leaning Eaton Township which makes this a tougher go for Deb Shaughnessy. Delta Township is moving away from us as Lansing's moving there. The portions of Lansing in the district are some of the most democrat areas of that city. Shaughnessy won big in 2010, but I'm calling this district lean at best right now and possibly a swing district depending on the candidates.



McCain Obama Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Bellevue Twp 891 679 1570 212 56.75% 43.25% 13.50%
Benton Twp 817 766 1583 51 51.61% 48.39% 3.22%
Carmel Twp 838 690 1528 148 54.84% 45.16% 9.69%
Charlotte 1756 2234 3990 -478 44.01% 55.99% -11.98%
Chester Twp 569 428 997 141 57.07% 42.93% 14.14%
Delta Twp 7632 10602 18234 -2970 41.86% 58.14% -16.29%
Eaton Rapids Twp 1092 1035 2127 57 51.34% 48.66% 2.68%
Grand Ledge 1784 2352 4136 -568 43.13% 56.87% -13.73%
Kalamo Twp 453 419 872 34 51.95% 48.05% 3.90%
Lansing 251 1740 1991 -1489 12.61% 87.39% -74.79%
Olivet 230 301 531 -71 43.31% 56.69% -13.37%
Oneida Twp 813 760 1573 53 51.68% 48.32% 3.37%
Potterville 497 569 1066 -72 46.62% 53.38% -6.75%
Roxand Twp 531 470 1001 61 53.05% 46.95% 6.09%
Sunfield Twp 612 464 1076 148 56.88% 43.12% 13.75%
Vermontville Twp 506 488 994 18 50.91% 49.09% 1.81%
Walton Twp 607 518 1125 89 53.96% 46.04% 7.91%
Windsor Twp 2096 2182 4278 -86 48.99% 51.01% -2.01%
Total 21975 26697 48672 -4722 45.15% 54.85% -9.70%









Bush Kerry Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Bellevue Twp 864 571 1435 293 60.21% 39.79% 20.42%
Benton Twp 921 602 1523 319 60.47% 39.53% 20.95%
Carmel Twp 955 587 1542 368 61.93% 38.07% 23.87%
Charlotte 2089 1784 3873 305 53.94% 46.06% 7.88%
Chester Twp 615 387 1002 228 61.38% 38.62% 22.75%
Delta Twp 9005 8891 17896 114 50.32% 49.68% 0.64%
Eaton Rapids Twp 1246 868 2114 378 58.94% 41.06% 17.88%
Grand Ledge 2153 1931 4084 222 52.72% 47.28% 5.44%
Kalamo Twp 496 339 835 157 59.40% 40.60% 18.80%
Lansing 411 1547 1958 -1136 20.99% 79.01% -58.02%
Olivet 260 186 446 74 58.30% 41.70% 16.59%
Oneida Twp 1330 977 2307 353 57.65% 42.35% 15.30%
Potterville 584 447 1031 137 56.64% 43.36% 13.29%
Roxand Twp 562 386 948 176 59.28% 40.72% 18.57%
Sunfield Twp 717 407 1124 310 63.79% 36.21% 27.58%
Vermontville Twp 584 378 962 206 60.71% 39.29% 21.41%
Walton Twp 640 363 1003 277 63.81% 36.19% 27.62%
Windsor Twp 2329 1907 4236 422 54.98% 45.02% 9.96%
Total 25761 22558 48319 3203 53.31% 46.69% 6.63%








Last St House GOP DEM Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Bellevue Twp 767 282 1049 485 73.12% 26.88% 46.23%
Benton Twp 758 401 1159 357 65.40% 34.60% 30.80%
Carmel Twp 804 393 1197 411 67.17% 32.83% 34.34%
Charlotte 1802 1069 2871 733 62.77% 37.23% 25.53%
Chester Twp 533 221 754 312 70.69% 29.31% 41.38%
Delta Twp 7049 6125 13174 924 53.51% 46.49% 7.01%
Eaton Rapids Twp 1032 565 1597 467 64.62% 35.38% 29.24%
Grand Ledge 1558 1351 2909 207 53.56% 46.44% 7.12%
Kalamo Twp 413 226 639 187 64.63% 35.37% 29.26%
Lansing 224 861 1085 -637 20.65% 79.35% -58.71%
Olivet 170 95 265 75 64.15% 35.85% 28.30%
Oneida Twp 1065 761 1826 304 58.32% 41.68% 16.65%
Potterville 474 293 767 181 61.80% 38.20% 23.60%
Roxand Twp 449 230 679 219 66.13% 33.87% 32.25%
Sunfield Twp 545 226 771 319 70.69% 29.31% 41.37%
Vermontville Twp 454 264 718 190 63.23% 36.77% 26.46%
Walton Twp 538 245 783 293 68.71% 31.29% 37.42%
Windsor Twp 679 394 1073 285 63.28% 36.72% 26.56%
Total 18547 13720 32267 4827 57.48% 42.52% 14.96%

No comments: