Sunday, March 11, 2012

State House Redistricting - District 83 (HD-83)

State House - District 83
Current Rep - Paul Muxlow (R-Brown City)

Candidates:
GOP - Paul Muxlow (R-Brown City)
Dem - Carol Cease Campbell (D-Lexington)

Old District (83rd)
Paul Muxlow - 14,940
Alan Lewandowski - 10,116

Update 8-30-2012 - This one worries me. Muxlow barely won the primary. 132 votes. Muxlow was also the candidate in 2004 who lost to the dems (with a lot of help from Lansing - wasn't all his fault).

This district is unchanged with redistricting. It gave us a major bit of humble pie in 2004. Paul Muxlow won the open seat in 2010. The dems took this seat in 2004 despite Bush dominating the district. John Espinoza was the perfect candidate for the district, but party candidate assistance directors shot our candidate in the foot with a bad mailing taking this district out of reach. Our candidate didn't need that kind of help from our friends. We got it back now.

 Sanilac County which is highly conservative and populist and votes the person over the party. They liked Jim Barcia and John Espinoza. They hated John Kerry and do not like national democrats. They usually vote republican, but not always. The district also has Burtchville, Fort Gratiot, and the city of Port Huron in St Clair County. Port Huron is democrat, enough to the point where this isn't a safe district.

If the dems didn't have this from 2004-2010, I'd call this a lean R district. I'd like to keep this for two cycles before calling it that, in case there's another Espinoza or Terry Brown type in the wings. This district is about the person more than the party.



McCain Obama Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Sanilac County 10679 9047 19726 1632 54.14% 45.86% 8.27%
Burtchville Twp 952 1062 2014 -110 47.27% 52.73% -5.46%
Fort Gratiot 2936 3073 6009 -137 48.86% 51.14% -2.28%
Port Huron 4223 7912 12135 -3689 34.80% 65.20% -30.40%
Total 18790 21094 39884 -2304 47.11% 52.89% -5.78%









Bush Kerry Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Sanilac County 12632 7883 20515 4749 61.57% 38.43% 23.15%
Burtchville Twp 994 946 1940 48 51.24% 48.76% 2.47%
Fort Gratiot 3253 2681 5934 572 54.82% 45.18% 9.64%
Port Huron 5360 6857 12217 -1497 43.87% 56.13% -12.25%
Total 22239 18367 40606 3872 54.77% 45.23% 9.54%








Last State House GOP Dem Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Sanilac County 8347 4681 13028 3666 64.07% 35.93% 28.14%
Burtchville Twp 829 502 1331 327 62.28% 37.72% 24.57%
Fort Gratiot 2441 1539 3980 902 61.33% 38.67% 22.66%
Port Huron 3296 3394 6690 -98 49.27% 50.73% -1.46%
Total 14913 10116 25029 4797 59.58% 40.42% 19.17%

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