Tuesday, May 01, 2012

State House Redistricting - District 109 (HD-109)

State House - District 109
Current Rep - Steve Lindberg (D - Marquette) Not running.

Candidates:
GOP - Jack Hubbard (R-Marquette)
Dem - John Kivela  (D-Marquette)

Update 5-27-2012 - Open seat with primaries on both sides. I'm calling this safe for the dems until proven otherwise. I saw that messed up the 04 numbers for this putting Marquette's numbers over Schoolcraft. I'll get that fixed when I have time. The numbers are close to that, and John Kerry still won the district. The district is more dem downticket than at the top as well. This is Dominic Jacobetti territory. 

Update 8-30-2012 - Kivela and Hubbard won the primary. I still need to fix the numbers.

Old District (109th)
Steve Lindberg - 17,160
John Brock - 12,496


This district barely changed over the last district. It drops Ishpeming Township and keeps the rest of the territory. It's a safe democrat seat, the only one in North Michigan that is safe for the dems, and one of the few that's safe for either party. Marquette County (Marquette and Ishpeming) is a democrat stronghold between labor and NMU, and Alger County (Munising) also leans that way. Schoolcraft (Manistique) is a swing county. Luce (Newberry) is slightly more republican, but also a competitive county, especially in state elections with the prison influence.



The district prefers moderate democrats, but liberals can also win here in non wave years. Even John Kerry won the district.



McCain Obama Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Alger County 2188 2472 4660 -284 46.95% 53.05% -6.09%
Luce County 1490 1191 2681 299 55.58% 44.42% 11.15%
Schoolcraft County 2058 2184 4242 -126 48.51% 51.49% -2.97%
Marquette County: 12906 19635 32541 -6729 39.66% 60.34% -20.68%
Ishpeming Twp (110th) -763 -1163 -1926 400 39.62% 60.38% -20.77%
Powell Twp (110th) -211 -257 -468 46 45.09% 54.91% -9.83%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 17668 24062 41730 -6394 42.34% 57.66% -15.32%









Bush Kerry Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Alger County 2318 2395 4713 -77 49.18% 50.82% -1.63%
Luce County 1749 1045 2794 704 62.60% 37.40% 25.20%
Schoolcraft County 14690 17412 32102 -2722 45.76% 54.24% -8.48%
Marquette County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Ishpeming Twp (110th) -845 -1010 -1855 165 45.55% 54.45% -8.89%
Powell Twp (110th) -244 -264 -508 20 48.03% 51.97% -3.94%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 17668 19578 37246 -1910 47.44% 52.56% -5.13%








Last St House GOP  DEM Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Alger County 1853 1842 3695 11 50.15% 49.85% 0.30%
Luce County 1074 801 1875 273 57.28% 42.72% 14.56%
Schoolcraft County 1569 1498 3067 71 51.16% 48.84% 2.31%
Marquette County: 8000 13109 21109 -5109 37.90% 62.10% -24.20%
Ishpeming Twp (110th) -487 -885 -1372 398 35.50% 64.50% -29.01%
Powell Twp (110th)

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 12009 16365 28374 -4356 42.32% 57.68% -15.35%


No comments: