Sunday, January 29, 2012

Canadian Oil now going to go to the Chinese

What a shocker.

Here, several hundred people gathered for hearings on whether a pipeline should be laid from the Alberta oil sands to the Pacific in order to deliver oil to Asia, chiefly energy-hungry China. The stakes are particularly high for the village of Kitamaat and its neighbors, because the pipeline would terminate here and a port would be built to handle 220 tankers a year and 525,000 barrels of oil a day.

But the planned Northern Gateway Pipeline is just one aspect of an epic battle over Canada's oil ambitions — a battle that already has a supporting role in the U.S. presidential election, and which will help to shape North America's future energy relationship with China.

Thanks to Obama's buddies in global warming cult, oil from our allies next door may be going to China. This puts puts more of our own oil to be imported from folks that don't like us very much. Hugo Chavez, Saudi Arabia. This may be Obama's worst act of all as Chief Executive. I don't blame Canada for this. Obama told them to eff off. They need to look out for their own best interests and if the US doesn't want their oil, someone would take it. This is NO good reason for denying the pipeline. NONE. There are plenty of good reasons to support the permit. Jobs. More energy here. Pipeline going through one of our newest and biggest energy fields in North Dakota.

"But what about global warming."

Besides the fact that any 125 (at most) year study is beyond worthless (due to length) at judging long term planet climate which has changed several times in the past billions of years, the fact is that energy will be used. If it isn't used by us, someone will use it.

Obama needs to reverse course on this traitorous decision ASAP.

Saturday, January 28, 2012

State House Redistricting - District 69 (HD-69)

State House - District 69
Current Rep - Mark Meadows (D-East Lansing) - Termed out

Candidates:
GOP - Susan McGillicuddy (R-Okemos)
DEM - Sam Singh (D-East Lansing)

Update 5-27-2012 - Meadows is out, but the dems have a strong candidate in Sam Singh. McGillicuddy has won before in Meridian Twp, but the only chance we have against this is the perfect storm of cleaning up the rural areas, winning Meridian by a good number, and East Lansing staying home. The only way Lynn Jondahl's seat flips is in a 1994 type of year, and even Laura Baird took the seat that year.

Update 8-30-2012 - Singh and McGillicuddy are the primary winners.

Old District (69th)
Mark Meadows - 16,782
Susan McGillicuddy - 10452

This district covered East Lansing, Okemos, and Williamstown Twp has been democrat for years. This district picks up Locke Twp but otherwise stays the same. It was Lynn Jondahl's district for about 20 years, then succeeded by Laura Baird, Gretchen Whitmer, and now Mark Meadows. It was supposedly competitive in 1998 and 2000, but I don't think it was that winnable even before East Lansing and next door Meridian Twp (Okemos/Haslett) got even bluer than it was. Meridian Twp is no longer competitive, and Williamstown Twp is now competitive. Government Workers and MSU dominate this district, and it's safe and will continue to be so for the dems barring surprises.



McCain Obama Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
East Lansing 5376 17179 22555 -11803 23.84% 76.16% -52.33%
Locke Twp 549 471 1020 78 53.82% 46.18% 7.65%
Meridian Twp 8080 14288 22368 -6208 36.12% 63.88% -27.75%
Williamstown Twp 1582 1653 3235 -71 48.90% 51.10% -2.19%
Total 15587 33591 49178 -18004 31.70% 68.30% -36.61%









Bush Kerry Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
East Lansing 5119 12647 17766 -7528 28.81% 71.19% -42.37%
Locke Twp 657 361 1018 296 64.54% 35.46% 29.08%
Meridian Twp 9589 12378 21967 -2789 43.65% 56.35% -12.70%
Williamstown Twp 1824 1373 3197 451 57.05% 42.95% 14.11%
Total 17189 26759 43948 -9570 39.11% 60.89% -21.78%








Last St House GOP Dem Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
East Lansing 2475 6566 9041 -4091 27.38% 72.62% -45.25%
Locke Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Meridian Twp 6612 8992 15604 -2380 42.37% 57.63% -15.25%
Williamstown Twp 1365 1224 2589 141 52.72% 47.28% 5.45%
Total 10452 16782 27234 -6330 38.38% 61.62% -23.24%

State House Redistricting - District 68 (HD-68)

State House - District 68
Current Rep - Joan Bauer (D-Lansing) - Termed Out

Candidates:
GOP - Timothy Moede (R-Lansing)
Dem - Andy Schorr (D-Lansing)

Update 5-26-2012 - That's a primary. I'm not going to even hazard a guess here, although I've seen a lot of Leeman and Schorr signs for other races in past elections.

Update 8-30-2012 - Timothy Moede and Andy Schor won their primaries.

Old District (68th)
Joan Bauer - 22,833
Harilaos Sorovigas - 6,075

This district expands some to take more of Lansing. It picks up parts of SW Lansing making this district even more Democrat. It still covers most of Lansing and Lansing Township and is safe for the democrats due to unions, MSU on the east, government workers, and minorities. It was a 74.7% Obama district and usually runs about 2/3 dem at the top of the ticket.

State House Redistricting - District 67 (HD-67)

State House - District 67
Current Rep - Barb Byrum (D-Onondaga Twp) - Termed out

Candidates:
GOP - Jeff Osterle (R-Mason)
Dem - Tom Cochrane (D-Mason),

Update 5-26-2012 - This is going to be a big battle. It's been "good enough to lose" for the GOP who wanted a shot at this fair fight district. We thought we had it in 2002, but Dianne Byrum jumped in. Byrum runs well in the rural areas. Barb Byrum, her daughter, replaced her. This year there's no Byrum running. Jeff Osterle gave a good go at this seat in 2010. He wants another shot at it, but has to get past Ashley Kring first. Three dems are running.

Update 8-30-2012 - Osterle gets another chance. Tom Cochrane's the candidate for the dems. 

Old District (67th)
Barb Byrum - 17,823
Jeff Osterle - 15,962

This district was possibly the most frustrating district for the GOP in the state. It was created as a close to 50/50 district to give the GOP as shot. We thought we had it in 2002. Then Dianne Byrum who runs well in rural areas, dropped from state senate to state rep. Barb, her daughter, took her place. There's small subtle changes to this district.

It covers all of Southern Ingham County. It drops Locke Township to the 69th district. More importantly, it takes a bit of South Central Lansing and drops Southwest Lansing, which is what made the difference for Byrum last election. Byrum took Lansing by 3100 votes, and SW Lansing is more heavily minority.

This was a 56% Obama district according to Dave's Redistricting app. I believe the old district went for Bush once and Gore. It was extremely close.

The GOP has a shot here in 08, but even without a Byrum running, it won't be easy. South Lansing is extremely democrat and will be a base for the dems. It doesn't have all of it, but still has enough to cause problems. Delhi Township, better known as Holt, isn't easy either, nor is Mason or Leslie. Those areas are keys and must wins to have a good shot at this. They are swing areas. Osterle split those areas against Byrum.

With the state house expected to be a big battleground, this district will be one of the most contested seats, especially as an open seat. It's improved some, but still won't be easy. I won't be surprised if either side wins it.

State House Redistricting - District 66 (HD-66)

State House - District 66
Current Rep - Aric Nesbitt (R-Antwerp Twp)

Candidates:
GOP - Aric Nesbitt (R-Antwerp Twp)
Dems - Richard Rajkovich (D-Mattawan)


Old District (80th)
Aric Nesbitt - 15,492
Thomas Erdmann - 7,850


The old 66th Bill Rogers district where I live is now mostly the 42nd District. Most of the new 66th district is the old 80th district with a few minor changes. The old and new district covers all of Van Buren County. The old district had parts of Allegan County (Otsego/Plainwell). The new district takes in Cooper and Alamo Townships in Kalamazoo County instead. That doesn't change much partisan wise. On paper, this is a swing district. On paper being the key as the GOP has held this for a long time, even in bad years. Covert and South Haven make this seat potentially difficult in any year. None of Van Buren County is that strongly Republican, unlike most of SW Michigan. A lot of the area is slightly leaning, but there are only two areas that went 60% for Bush. Covert Township is the big base for the democrats by percentage due to minorities, but there aren't many people there.


McCain Obama Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Van Buren County 15534 18588 34122 -3054 45.52% 54.48% -8.95%
Kalamazoo County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Alamo Twp 1198 1049 2247 149 53.32% 46.68% 6.63%
Cooper Twp 2635 2873 5508 -238 47.84% 52.16% -4.32%
Total 19367 22510 41877 -3143 46.25% 53.75% -7.51%









Bush Kerry Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Van Buren County 17634 16151 33785 1483 52.19% 47.81% 4.39%
Kalamazoo County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Alamo Twp 1288 918 2206 370 58.39% 41.61% 16.77%
Cooper Twp 2825 2462 5287 363 53.43% 46.57% 6.87%
Total 21747 19531 41278 2216 52.68% 47.32% 5.37%








Last St House GOP Dem Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Van Buren County 13508 6805 20313 6703 66.50% 33.50% 33.00%
Kalamazoo County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Alamo Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Cooper Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 13508 6805 20313 6703 66.50% 33.50% 33.00%

State House Redistricting - District 65 (HD-65)

State House - District 65
Current Rep - Mike Shirkey (R-Columbia Twp?)

Candidates:
GOP - Mike Shirkey (R-Clarklake)
Dem -  Bonnie Johnson (D-Jackson)

Update 5-26-2012 - Shirkey has an easier district (slightly) than last time, but he's got a primary and general to contend with this time. I don't know much about the dems running here, but Shirkey's going to have to work. I know this and the 64th fairly well from my 2nd Amendment work. Nothing comes easy there for pols. It's a humbling independent district that reminds me of up north.  Keep an eye on this one. This and the 64th are bellwethers.

Update 7-15-2012 - I remembered that Dan Fulara is a RINO. My definition of RINO is not a liberal republican, but a democrat. Fulara supported Barack Obama in 2008. I hope Mike Shirkey whips his ass.

Update 8-30-2012 - Obama loving Fulara got taken out. He also had some campaign finance violations to take care of last I saw. Good riddance. Bonnie Johnson won the dems primary.

Old District (65th)
Mike Shirkey - 17,889
Janet D Rochefort - 10,405


Don't let the 2010 results fool you. This district in the heart of old free soil country flipped twice in the last decade. The district mirrors the old district with the exception of Eaton Township as new territory. It was an Obama district, but now a McCain one by 117 votes. The late Mike Simpson won with a much bigger margin than that for the dems when he was the rep. He was an exceptional candidate for the district which was held by a Republican before and after Simpson. If the dems find another Simpson type of candidate, they have a good chance. This is a populist person over party district I'm well familiar with. I expect a tough challenge here, like in the 64th district. Here, there are no strong anchors for the democrats outside arguably Leoni and Waterloo Townships. However if they do well in Leoni, Blackman, Hamlim, Waterloo, and Eaton Rapids, they have a good roadmap to win. Republican need to win at least one or preferably two of those to have a good chance to win, but they have more room for error with most of the other small rural areas theirs to lose.

On paper, this district leans Republican. In reality, I'd call it a very slight lean at best as Simpson proved it can be won. Don't take this one lightly. The folks here don't care much for politicians in general.



McCain Obama Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Eaton County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Brookfield Twp 414 356 770 58 53.77% 46.23% 7.53%
Eaton Rapids 1024 1257 2281 -233 44.89% 55.11% -10.21%
Eaton Township 1228 1090 2318 138 52.98% 47.02% 5.95%
Hamlin Twp 835 909 1744 -74 47.88% 52.12% -4.24%
Jackson County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Blackman Twp 3646 4204 7850 -558 46.45% 53.55% -7.11%
Columbia Twp 2265 2011 4276 254 52.97% 47.03% 5.94%
Grass Lake Twp 1659 1430 3089 229 53.71% 46.29% 7.41%
Henrietta Twp 1161 1153 2314 8 50.17% 49.83% 0.35%
Leoni Twp 2930 3387 6317 -457 46.38% 53.62% -7.23%
Liberty Twp 1015 713 1728 302 58.74% 41.26% 17.48%
Norvell Twp 887 815 1702 72 52.12% 47.88% 4.23%
Rives Twp 1317 1005 2322 312 56.72% 43.28% 13.44%
Springport Twp 551 425 976 126 56.45% 43.55% 12.91%
Tompkins Twp 710 631 1341 79 52.95% 47.05% 5.89%
Waterloo Twp 650 787 1437 -137 45.23% 54.77% -9.53%
Cambridge (Lenawee) 1636 1638 3274 -2 49.97% 50.03% -0.06%
Total 21928 21811 43739 117 50.13% 49.87% 0.27%









Bush Kerry Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Eaton County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Brookfield Twp 427 268 695 159 61.44% 38.56% 22.88%
Eaton Rapids 1213 1053 2266 160 53.53% 46.47% 7.06%
Eaton Township 1455 868 2323 587 62.63% 37.37% 25.27%
Hamlin Twp 925 694 1619 231 57.13% 42.87% 14.27%
Jackson County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Blackman Twp 4258 3454 7712 804 55.21% 44.79% 10.43%
Columbia Twp 2532 1693 4225 839 59.93% 40.07% 19.86%
Grass Lake Twp 1684 1132 2816 552 59.80% 40.20% 19.60%
Henrietta Twp 1196 952 2148 244 55.68% 44.32% 11.36%
Leoni Twp 3216 2971 6187 245 51.98% 48.02% 3.96%
Liberty Twp 1106 610 1716 496 64.45% 35.55% 28.90%
Norvell Twp 962 774 1736 188 55.41% 44.59% 10.83%
Rives Twp 1464 809 2273 655 64.41% 35.59% 28.82%
Springport Twp 577 332 909 245 63.48% 36.52% 26.95%
Tompkins Twp 772 537 1309 235 58.98% 41.02% 17.95%
Waterloo Twp 771 701 1472 70 52.38% 47.62% 4.76%
Cambridge (Lenawee) 1813 1404 3217 409 56.36% 43.64% 12.71%
Total 24371 18252 42623 6119 57.18% 42.82% 14.36%








Last St House GOP DEM Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Eaton County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Brookfield Twp 344 195 539 149 63.82% 36.18% 27.64%
Eaton Rapids 943 573 1516 370 62.20% 37.80% 24.41%
Eaton Township

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Hamlin Twp 790 491 1281 299 61.67% 38.33% 23.34%
Jackson County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Blackman Twp 2988 1919 4907 1069 60.89% 39.11% 21.79%
Columbia Twp 2084 1021 3105 1063 67.12% 32.88% 34.24%
Grass Lake Twp 1507 749 2256 758 66.80% 33.20% 33.60%
Henrietta Twp 923 628 1551 295 59.51% 40.49% 19.02%
Leoni Twp 2452 1731 4183 721 58.62% 41.38% 17.24%
Liberty Twp 898 355 1253 543 71.67% 28.33% 43.34%
Norvell Twp 784 432 1216 352 64.47% 35.53% 28.95%
Rives Twp 1118 505 1623 613 68.88% 31.12% 37.77%
Springport Twp 429 176 605 253 70.91% 29.09% 41.82%
Tompkins Twp 600 378 978 222 61.35% 38.65% 22.70%
Waterloo Twp 529 408 937 121 56.46% 43.54% 12.91%
Cambridge (Lenawee) 1500 844 2344 656 63.99% 36.01% 27.99%
Total 17889 10405 28294 7484 63.23% 36.77% 26.45%

State House Redistricting - District 64 (HD-64)

State House - District 64
Current Rep - Earl Poleski (R-Jackson)

Candidates:
GOP - Earl Poleski (R-Jackson)
Dem - Barbara Shelton (D-Jackson)

Update 5-26-2012 - Interesting primary here. Marquez and his dad (also named Ruben) are both running for office. Dad's running for Congress and Junior is running for state rep. It sounds like they want to be the next Lamar Lemmons. This will be a tough defense, and turnout will be key. If Poleski isn't killed in Jackson, he'll win. If Spring Arbor and Summit Township comes through for him, he should win. If Marquez or Shelton get 4000 vote spreads in Jackson, this seat's gone.

Update 8-30-2012 - Shelton won the primary.

Old District (64th)
Earl Poleski - 15,649
Martin Griffin - 10,777

Jackson County has been ground zero for control of Michigan's legislature the past 10 years. Both districts here have flipped and aren't really safe, although they should lean our way. Martin Griffin was an incumbent who helped us by putting himself in trouble a bit. I believe his dad represented the district a long time before term limits. The republicans held this district for awhile. Martin Griffin beat an incumbent in a rematch. Griffin lost in 2010 to Earl Poleski who will have a tough test in 2012.

The old district covered Concord Twp, Hanover Twp, Jackson, Napoleon Twp, Parma Twp, Pulaski Twp, Sandstone Twp, Spring Arbor Twp, and Summit Twp. The new district is exactly the same as the old district. The big keys here are two things. How well each candidate does in the base areas with turnout. How well the candidate makes inroads in the base areas of the other. Griffin did well in Republican Summit Township as well as his base area of Jackson when he won. Poleski won big in Summit Township and Spring Arbor, the big base areas for the GOP. He held the dems to under 60% in Jackson. Jackson is heavily democrat, but it's not Albion or Kalamazoo in its leaning. Mostly white union populists with a sizable, but not overwhelmingly minority area that would put this district out of reach.

Bush won the district twice. Obama won it in 08. It's winnable for either party and I expect it to be a target in 2010. 



McCain Obama Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Concord Twp 758 633 1391 125 54.49% 45.51% 8.99%
Hanover Twp 1096 843 1939 253 56.52% 43.48% 13.05%
Jackson 4162 8856 13018 -4694 31.97% 68.03% -36.06%
Napoleon Twp 1733 1712 3445 21 50.30% 49.70% 0.61%
Parma Twp 629 618 1247 11 50.44% 49.56% 0.88%
Pulaski Twp 579 405 984 174 58.84% 41.16% 17.68%
Sandstone Twp 1203 782 1985 421 60.60% 39.40% 21.21%
Spring Arbor Twp 2460 1418 3878 1042 63.43% 36.57% 26.87%
Summit Twp 6281 5652 11933 629 52.64% 47.36% 5.27%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 18901 20919 39820 -2018 47.47% 52.53% -5.07%









Bush Kerry Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Concord Twp 843 483 1326 360 63.57% 36.43% 27.15%
Hanover Twp 1199 745 1944 454 61.68% 38.32% 23.35%
Jackson 5257 7142 12399 -1885 42.40% 57.60% -15.20%
Napoleon Twp 1893 1494 3387 399 55.89% 44.11% 11.78%
Parma Twp 714 523 1237 191 57.72% 42.28% 15.44%
Pulaski Twp 635 363 998 272 63.63% 36.37% 27.25%
Sandstone Twp 1293 636 1929 657 67.03% 32.97% 34.06%
Spring Arbor Twp 2763 1105 3868 1658 71.43% 28.57% 42.86%
Summit Twp 6894 4579 11473 2315 60.09% 39.91% 20.18%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 21491 17070 38561 4421 55.73% 44.27% 11.46%








Last St House GOP DEM Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Concord Twp 637 293 930 344 68.49% 31.51% 36.99%
Hanover Twp 948 431 1379 517 68.75% 31.25% 37.49%
Jackson 3108 4389 7497 -1281 41.46% 58.54% -17.09%
Napoleon Twp 1426 910 2336 516 61.04% 38.96% 22.09%
Parma Twp 548 331 879 217 62.34% 37.66% 24.69%
Pulaski Twp 452 194 646 258 69.97% 30.03% 39.94%
Sandstone Twp 1035 414 1449 621 71.43% 28.57% 42.86%
Spring Arbor Twp 2126 674 2800 1452 75.93% 24.07% 51.86%
Summit Twp 5369 3141 8510 2228 63.09% 36.91% 26.18%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 15649 10777 26426 4872 59.22% 40.78% 18.44%

State House Redistricting - District 63 (HD-63)

State House - District 63
Current Rep - Jace Bolger (R-Marshall)

Old District (63rd)
Jace Bolger - 20,135
Dave Morgan - 12,408

Candidates:
GOP - Jace Bolger  (R-Marshall)
Dem - Bill Farmer (R-Scotts)

This district got safe at the cost of conceding for probably 10 years the Battle Creek/Albion district (HD-62). Bolger never had any problems, but probably thought himself a target as he's Speaker. The only real bad spot in this district was adding one small part of Kalamazoo Twp and to a lesser extent Comstock Twp. It's still a 50% McCain district, which shouldn't be a problem anywhere west of Jackson County unless you have a poor candidate.

The new district includes all of Southern Calhoun County outside of Albion Twp. It also includes Marshall, Emmett Twp, and Margengo Twp in Calhoun County. It also has all of the eastern half of Kalamazoo County, as well as a small part of Kalamazoo Twp.

Bolger should have no problem getting a third term unless he blunders badly. The open seat will lean GOP.

Saturday, January 21, 2012

State House Redistricting - District 62 (HD-62)

State House - District 62
Current Rep - Kate Segal (D-Battle Creek)

Old District (62nd)
Kate Segal - 14,188
Steven Mobley - 11,719

Candidates:
GOP - Mark Behnke (R-Battle Creek)
Dem - Kate Segal (D-Battle Creek)

Update 5-26-2012 - I'm not sure we could have a better candidate for our side than Mark Behnke. That makes me irked even more at the house redistricting committee for this district. Mark Behnke is former Mayor of Battle Creek and former city commissioner there. Considering that's a democrat leaning area, he's shown strength there. If he isn't completely killed in Albion or strongly overperforms in Springfield, he has a shot.

This district is entirely in Calhoun County. I don't like this district at all. They all but conceded a district to make Bolger more safe than he already is. The old district leaned democrat, but was won by Mike Nofs three times. The new district is even more democrat.

The old district covered Albion, Athens, 90%+ of Battle Creek, a small part of Bedford Twp, Burlington Twp, Clarence Twp, Clarendon Twp, Convis Twp, Eckford Twp, Fredonia Twp, Homer Twp, Lee Twp, Leroy Twp, Marengo Twp, Sheridan Twp, Sprinfield, and Tekonska Twp. The new district drops most of this and covers all of Battle Creek, Springfield, Bedford Twp, Pennfield Twp, Convis Twp, Lee Twp, Clarence Twp, Sheridan Twp, and Albion. Keeping Albion, Springfield, and Battle Creek together is tough. Adding Bedford Twp makes it worse. Pennfield is the only good addition, but it's only good if Albion's removed. Did I mention that I don't like this district at all? John Kerry lost Calhoun County. John Kerry won this district.

Even the old district leaned slightly democrat. Mark Schauer held the old district before Mike Nofs took the open seat (and Schauer the State Senate seat). Kate Segal took the open seat after Nofs ran for State Senate when Schauer ran for congress and won, before losing the rematch. Segal survived 2010 as an incumbent and I believe has one term left.

I would have split Albion and Battle Creek if possible. That would make this much easier.



McCain Obama Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Albion 719 2584 3303 -1865 21.77% 78.23% -56.46%
Albion Twp 301 283 584 18 51.54% 48.46% 3.08%
Battle Creek 8916 13975 22891 -5059 38.95% 61.05% -22.10%
Bedford Twp 2128 2583 4711 -455 45.17% 54.83% -9.66%
Clarence Twp 574 439 1013 135 56.66% 43.34% 13.33%
Convis Twp 439 357 796 82 55.15% 44.85% 10.30%
Lee Twp 300 220 520 80 57.69% 42.31% 15.38%
Pennfield Twp 2405 2218 4623 187 52.02% 47.98% 4.04%
Sheridan Twp 412 390 802 22 51.37% 48.63% 2.74%
Springfield 689 1132 1821 -443 37.84% 62.16% -24.33%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 16883 24181 41064 -7298 41.11% 58.89% -17.77%









Bush Kerry Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Albion 896 2174 3070 -1278 29.19% 70.81% -41.63%
Albion Twp 336 265 601 71 55.91% 44.09% 11.81%
Battle Creek 10314 11583 21897 -1269 47.10% 52.90% -5.80%
Bedford Twp 2262 2264 4526 -2 49.98% 50.02% -0.04%
Clarence Twp 640 376 1016 264 62.99% 37.01% 25.98%
Convis Twp 500 355 855 145 58.48% 41.52% 16.96%
Lee Twp 339 214 553 125 61.30% 38.70% 22.60%
Pennfield Twp 2680 1969 4649 711 57.65% 42.35% 15.29%
Sheridan Twp 428 394 822 34 52.07% 47.93% 4.14%
Springfield 877 1005 1882 -128 46.60% 53.40% -6.80%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 19272 20599 39871 -1327 48.34% 51.66% -3.33%








Last St House GOP DEM Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Albion 463 1623 2086 -1160 22.20% 77.80% -55.61%
Albion Twp 197 226 423 -29 46.57% 53.43% -6.86%
Battle Creek 5633 8174 13807 -2541 40.80% 59.20% -18.40%
Bedford Twp 18 10 28 8 64.29% 35.71% 28.57%
Clarence Twp 424 306 730 118 58.08% 41.92% 16.16%
Convis Twp 302 239 541 63 55.82% 44.18% 11.65%
Lee Twp 223 123 346 100 64.45% 35.55% 28.90%
Pennfield Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Sheridan Twp 269 283 552 -14 48.73% 51.27% -2.54%
Springfield 399 563 962 -164 41.48% 58.52% -17.05%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 7928 11547 19475 -3619 40.71% 59.29% -18.58%

State House Redistricting - District 61 (HD-61)

State House - District 61
Current Rep - Margaret O'Brien (R-Portage)

Candidates:
GOP - Margaret O'Brien (R-Portage)
Dem - Michael Martin (D-Portage)

Update 5-26-2010 - I don't know anything about Martin. I'm keeping an eye on this although it's been "good enough to lose" for the dems.

Old District (61th)
Margaret O'Brien - 21,919
Thomas Batten - 13,671

This district is close on paper, but has been in the "good enough to lose" category for the democrats, much like the Alpena and West Branch seats were until recently. Jack Hoogendyk held this seat for three terms followed by Larry DeShazor's narrow win and now Margaret O'Brien who won easily.

The old district covered Alamo, part of Kalamazoo Twp, Oshtemo Twp, Parchment, Portage, Prairie Ronde Twp, and Texas Twp. The new district drops Kalamazoo Twp, Parchment, and Alamo Twp and adds Schoolcraft Twp. Alamo Twp went for McCain and Bush, Kalamazoo Twp went dem twice. Parchment went for Bush and Obama. Kalamazoo Twp is the biggest part that was dropped, so slight GOP advantage, although losing Alamo Twp hurt. Adding Schoolcraft Twp helped some.

On paper, this is a bit of a swing district. Off paper, it's elected Jack Hoogendyk three times. Jack's quite conservative, and outspokenly so. Oshtemo Twp leans democrat with WMU, but O'Brien won it. Portage is close at the top of the ticket, but is more GOP downticket. Portage is about 1/2 of the district. Texas Twp is the main GOP base. This is a district to keep an eye on as it's no stranger to tough elections, but it hasn't flipped even in two rough years (06/08).



McCain Obama Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Oshtemo Twp 4414 6565 10979 -2151 40.20% 59.80% -19.59%
Portage 11448 14049 25497 -2601 44.90% 55.10% -10.20%
Prairie Ronde Twp 770 538 1308 232 58.87% 41.13% 17.74%
Schoolcraft Twp 2164 2071 4235 93 51.10% 48.90% 2.20%
Texas Twp 4469 3864 8333 605 53.63% 46.37% 7.26%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 23265 27087 50352 -3822 46.20% 53.80% -7.59%









Bush Kerry Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Oshtemo Twp 4703 4850 9553 -147 49.23% 50.77% -1.54%
Portage 13115 11597 24712 1518 53.07% 46.93% 6.14%
Prairie Ronde Twp 848 456 1304 392 65.03% 34.97% 30.06%
Schoolcraft Twp 2288 1652 3940 636 58.07% 41.93% 16.14%
Texas Twp 4509 2919 7428 1590 60.70% 39.30% 21.41%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 25463 21474 46937 3989 54.25% 45.75% 8.50%








Last State House GOP DEM Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Oshtemo Twp 3712 2827 6539 885 56.77% 43.23% 13.53%
Portage 10077 5847 15924 4230 63.28% 36.72% 26.56%
Prairie Ronde Twp 661 274 935 387 70.70% 29.30% 41.39%
Schoolcraft Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Texas Twp 3903 1711 5614 2192 69.52% 30.48% 39.05%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 18353 10659 29012 7694 63.26% 36.74% 26.52%

Friday, January 20, 2012

Brenda Lawrence running in MI-14

The primary in the 14th just got a major shake-up. I'm not surprised at this, but it's still big. I think Conyers switched districts because he wants no part of a one on one vs Lawrence.

Southfield Mayor Brenda Lawrence said today that she plans to run for Congress in a district that already features a race with two incumbent Congressmen.

She will formally announce her intentions on Feb. 1, Lawrence said, but she’s also been telling people in the district for months that she plans on running.

I happen to appreciate this comment by Lawrence a bit. That hits a little at Clarke (although he did represent Detroit's East Side) and hits a lot at Peters. I think Peters will be a non-factor outside of maybe West Bloomfield. He's just a yesman and a toady who carpetbagged. Clarke and Lawrence as far as I know don't have the same animosity towards them from whitey as Conyers does.

“It’s a district I live in and while that may not mean something to others, it does mean something to me,” Lawrence said.

Using Dave's redistricting website, the approximate numbers are 337,000 in Detroit, 309,000 in Oakland County, and 82,000 in Wayne County outside of Detroit (Hamtramck, Grosse Pointes, Harper Woods). The Detroit Part was 86% black and 97% for Obama. If they vote in a primary, we know which side it will be. Dems. Will they vote for Clarke? He's known more on the East Side, but what about West Side Detroiters. Southfield is right next door. City or
proximity. The 82,000 in Wayne County outside of Detroit is more competitive. If there is local partisan primaries, some of them may vote there, although I think there will be crossovers because the Grosse Pointe state rep districts are now split. The Oakland County portion is 48% White and about 40% Black. It went 75% for Obama, while extremely high, significantly less than Detroit. Southfield, Farmington Hills, and Oak Park will probably vote heavily for her with geography, but will Pontiac further North? Pontiac is a different community than the other three areas (or at least much of Southfield and Oak Park). Will they be open to Clarke or even Peters.

This will be an interesting August in many districts, and this is going to be one of them. We have competitive primaries so far in the 5th, 6th, 13th, and 14th. There might be more. We'll find out for sure in May at the filing deadline.

Why I'm pro-life

From the AP

Melinda Star Guido weighed only 9 ½ ounces at birth- less than a can of soda. After spending her early months in the neonatal intensive care unit, a team of doctors and nurses will gather Friday to see her off.

Melinda has been growing steadily and gaining weight since she was born premature at 24 weeks in August at the Los Angeles County-USC Medical Center. She is the world's third smallest baby and the second smallest in the U.S.

Now weighing 4½ pounds, doctors said Melinda has made enough progress to be discharged. It's too early to know how she will fare developmentally and physically, but doctors planned to monitor her for the next six years.

Born at 24 weeks and survived. That has me beat and I was born almost three months early.

Thursday, January 19, 2012

Perry drops out

It's too bad that verbal gaffes and style count more than actual records these days. I originally supported Perry because of his record. I was rethinking due to his implosion, but was going full circle back there with my leanings again after Obama just screwed over this country once again to please his base of global warming nutters. He said no to the pipeline. Gas is around $3.50. Obama wants it $5.00. Send the oil from our Canadian allies to China instead. Good job. Really.

Perry was a better governor than he was a presidential campaigner. Perry wasn't a bad governor. He's experienced, and most importantly did not screw up the Texas economy like Granholm did here in Michigan. He also understood domestic energy and its importance. Perry's endorsed Newt. With Perry and Huntsman gone, it's down to Romney, Paul, Santorum, and Newt. Newt really isn't all that much different than Romney with the flips except a more conservative record than Mitt. Santorum's similar to Bush with his record. Ron Paul is who he is.

I'm going to wait and see what happens with South Carolina and Florida and make my final primary decision from there.

In other news, Conservative Jack Hoogendyk, former state rep and Core Principles blogger Jack Hoogendyk wants a rematch against moderate Fred Upton. Jack lost 42,182 to 31,660 in the little publicized (at least in East Michigan) 2010 primary. It may get more interesting this time. At worst, this pushes Upton to the right a bit on issues like energy.

Monday, January 16, 2012

State House Redistricting - District 60 (HD-60)

State House - District 60
Current Rep - Sean McCann (D-Kalamazoo)

Candidates:
GOP - Mike Perrin (R-Kalamazoo)
Dem - Sean McCann (D-Kalamazoo)

Old District (60th)
Sean McCann - 13,841
Jeff Fernandez - 8,024

This is one of the safest democrat districts in West Michigan. It has all of the City of Kalamazoo and part of Kalamazoo Township. The old district drops Cooper Township and takes in most, although not all, of Kalamazoo Township making it more democrat. The City of Kalamazoo is usually 60%+ democrat thanks to WMU, Kalamazoo College, and the minority population on the city's north side. According to Dave's redistricting, it was a 72% Obama district.

State House Redistricting - District 59 (HD-59)

State House - District 59
Current Rep - Matt Lori (R-Constantine)

Candidates:
GOP - Matt Lori (R-Constantine)
Dem - Mike Moroz (D-Dowagiac)

Update 5-26-2012 - This is going to be a one on one battle. I'm keeping an eye on it because I do have some outside concerns here due to Dowagiac being picked up. 

2010 Results - Old District (59th)
Matt Lori - 17,604
Carol Higgins - 6,846

This district expanded some with redistricting, although it is similar to the old incarnation. Both versions cover all of St Joseph County and part of Cass County. This district took more of Cass County.

The part of Cass County covered with the old district is Calvin, Jefferson, LaGrange, Marcellus, Mason, Milton, Newberg, Ontwa, Penn, Pokagon, Porter, and Volinia Townships. The new district drops Milton and Ontwa Townships and picks up Wayne Township and most notably Dowagiac. This district was safe GOP before, and probably leans that way now, but Dowagiac and Vandalia (Heavily minority village, corner of four townships, I think Calvin, Penn, LaGrange, Jefferson) together without heavy GOP Ontwa Twp makes me slightly nervous. McCain absolutely got hammered in SW Michigan compared to Bush. SW Michigan has more ties to South Bend and Chicago than it does to Detroit. Obama won the district.

I'll call this a lean district for now. That's due to this being a presidential year with a district "close" to Chicago/South Bend, and also due to the neighboring 78th district (with Dowagiac) being competitive in the past.

This one should stay ours, but shouldn't be taken for granted.



McCain Obama Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
St Joseph County 12886 12322 25208 564 51.12% 48.88% 2.24%
Cass County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Calvin Twp 331 591 922 -260 35.90% 64.10% -28.20%
Dowagiac City 667 1548 2215 -881 30.11% 69.89% -39.77%
Jefferson Twp 611 577 1188 34 51.43% 48.57% 2.86%
Lagrange Twp 540 992 1532 -452 35.25% 64.75% -29.50%
Marcellus Twp 464 603 1067 -139 43.49% 56.51% -13.03%
Mason Twp 560 452 1012 108 55.34% 44.66% 10.67%
Newberg Twp 374 381 755 -7 49.54% 50.46% -0.93%
Penn Twp 467 464 931 3 50.16% 49.84% 0.32%
Pokagon Twp 479 560 1039 -81 46.10% 53.90% -7.80%
Porter Twp 1103 807 1910 296 57.75% 42.25% 15.50%
Volinia Twp 317 237 554 80 57.22% 42.78% 14.44%
Wayne Twp 566 630 1196 -64 47.32% 52.68% -5.35%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 19365 20164 39529 -799 48.99% 51.01% -2.02%









Bush Kerry Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
St Joseph County 15340 9648 24988 5692 61.39% 38.61% 22.78%
Cass County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Calvin Twp 440 379 819 61 53.72% 46.28% 7.45%
Dowagiac City 951 1207 2158 -256 44.07% 55.93% -11.86%
Jefferson Twp 656 444 1100 212 59.64% 40.36% 19.27%
Lagrange Twp 680 777 1457 -97 46.67% 53.33% -6.66%
Marcellus Twp 599 521 1120 78 53.48% 46.52% 6.96%
Mason Twp 627 347 974 280 64.37% 35.63% 28.75%
Newberg Twp 455 310 765 145 59.48% 40.52% 18.95%
Penn Twp 519 391 910 128 57.03% 42.97% 14.07%
Pokagon Twp 541 450 991 91 54.59% 45.41% 9.18%
Porter Twp 1262 537 1799 725 70.15% 29.85% 40.30%
Volinia Twp 355 251 606 104 58.58% 41.42% 17.16%
Wayne Twp 666 543 1209 123 55.09% 44.91% 10.17%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 23091 15805 38896 7286 59.37% 40.63% 18.73%








Last St House GOP DEM Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
St Joseph County 11234 3945 15179 7289 74.01% 25.99% 48.02%
Cass County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Calvin Twp 289 204 493 85 58.62% 41.38% 17.24%
Dowagiac City

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Jefferson Twp 506 254 760 252 66.58% 33.42% 33.16%
Lagrange Twp 457 347 804 110 56.84% 43.16% 13.68%
Marcellus Twp 381 253 634 128 60.09% 39.91% 20.19%
Mason Twp 477 141 618 336 77.18% 22.82% 54.37%
Newberg Twp 322 145 467 177 68.95% 31.05% 37.90%
Penn Twp 405 182 587 223 68.99% 31.01% 37.99%
Pokagon Twp 374 228 602 146 62.13% 37.87% 24.25%
Porter Twp 935 280 1215 655 76.95% 23.05% 53.91%
Volinia Twp 242 109 351 133 68.95% 31.05% 37.89%
Wayne Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 15622 6088 21710 9534 71.96% 28.04% 43.92%