If there is one word I can use to describe former Congresscritter and state legislator Mark Schauer, it's Yesman. He is the epidomy of a yesman. He did whatever Granholm, Obama, or Pelosi asked him to do. He talks a game and tries to sound moderate, but when the going gets tough, he goes leftist.
When CCW was an issue in the Michigan House in 99/00, he voted for every bad amendment - including making cars a criminal empowerment zone (that amendment failed), but then voted for the final bill just to say that he wasn't anti-2nd Amendment. Weasel move. He then cosponsored a major gun grab package with Gilda Jacobs that luckily went nowhere.
He supports every pro-abortion measure there is.
He voted for cap and trade in Michigan of all places trying to destroy our industry.
He voted for Obamacare.
He was fined $200000+ in campaign finance violations
He voted for Granholm's income tax increase.
He voted for the Obama Stimulus plan.
This guy would be the return of the Matt Millen of Governors and then some.
Thursday, May 30, 2013
Friday, May 24, 2013
We do not need Red Light or Speed Cameras in Michigan
I saw this alarming article in the Oakland Press today.
This isn't safety. This is about revenue enhancement. I learned that from experience. I despise these cameras from personal experience.
I got a letter last week with the ticket dismissed. I would have gone to Chicago to fight this if I had to. This is guilty till proven innocent measure. For one thing, cars don't run red lights. Drivers do. These cameras don't send pictures to drivers, but to license plates they think they have. Sometimes, they get the wrong one. I know! I know! In order to beat this ticket, I had to:
A. Prove that I wasn't the owner of the car that ran the light.
B. Prove that the license plate wasn't of my car.
C. Send the information taking time out of my day to fight something I didn't do.
D. Cough up about $10 in postage and printing costs (Certified mail to make sure they received it).
That is because people didn't read a license plate properly, nor check which VEHICLE is licensed on the DMV, although they did enough work to find an address to try and get their $100, that's for sure.
If a cop is there instead of a camera, they can ding the driver. They will see who drove the car and give the driver a ticket whether or not, it is the car's owner. Cameras don't do that and open things up for a long list of abuses.
HB 4763 is a bipartisan turkey that needs to be defeated. Wayne A. Schmidt - (primary)Fred Durhal, Jr., Thomas F. Stallworth III, Brian Banks, Michael D. McCready, Woodrow Stanley, Henry Yanez, Scott Dianda are the sponsors. Six democrats and two republicans. Unfortunately, Schmidt is the committee chair on transportation, so this might not easily be killed in committee.
Time to make some phone calls to defeat this thing.
LANSING, Mich. (AP) — Michigan's local governments would have the option to put cameras at intersections to spot drivers running red lights under proposed legislation in the state House.
A measure recently introduced by Republican Rep. Wayne Schmidt of Traverse City would give local communities the power to put cameras in place.
This isn't safety. This is about revenue enhancement. I learned that from experience. I despise these cameras from personal experience.
I got a $100 red light camera ticket from Chicago in the mail today. One problem. I haven't driven in Illinois, let alone Chicago, in at least 12 years. I also have never driven my current wheels there. The vehicle's license plate was off by one letter (Which I can tell even on the red light camera picture sent to me). It was a different vehicle from Michigan. I won't post pictures but you can bet your arse that I'll be sending a nice file to Sh-tcago (gave up swearing for Lent) to contest this piece of trash. They got the wrong car.
I'm even more insulted that they sent a picture of a foreign car to me and claim that it was my car. Anyone that knows me knows I drive Fords, not Scion. My family would disown me otherwise The picture of the vehicle was a Scion XD. I drive a older truck based Ford Explorer. There is a big difference. M and N are different letters. Fords and Scions are different vehicles. One quick license plate cross check should have handled that.
I got a letter last week with the ticket dismissed. I would have gone to Chicago to fight this if I had to. This is guilty till proven innocent measure. For one thing, cars don't run red lights. Drivers do. These cameras don't send pictures to drivers, but to license plates they think they have. Sometimes, they get the wrong one. I know! I know! In order to beat this ticket, I had to:
A. Prove that I wasn't the owner of the car that ran the light.
B. Prove that the license plate wasn't of my car.
C. Send the information taking time out of my day to fight something I didn't do.
D. Cough up about $10 in postage and printing costs (Certified mail to make sure they received it).
That is because people didn't read a license plate properly, nor check which VEHICLE is licensed on the DMV, although they did enough work to find an address to try and get their $100, that's for sure.
If a cop is there instead of a camera, they can ding the driver. They will see who drove the car and give the driver a ticket whether or not, it is the car's owner. Cameras don't do that and open things up for a long list of abuses.
HB 4763 is a bipartisan turkey that needs to be defeated. Wayne A. Schmidt - (primary)Fred Durhal, Jr., Thomas F. Stallworth III, Brian Banks, Michael D. McCready, Woodrow Stanley, Henry Yanez, Scott Dianda are the sponsors. Six democrats and two republicans. Unfortunately, Schmidt is the committee chair on transportation, so this might not easily be killed in committee.
Wayne Schmidt (R) Committee Chair, 104th District
Ben Glardon (R) Majority Vice-Chair, 85th District
Kevin Daley (R) 82nd District
Kurt Heise (R) 20th District
Bradford Jacobsen (R) 46th District
Margaret O'Brien (R) 61st District
Peter Pettalia (R) 106th District
Dan Lauwers (R) 81st District
Michael McCready (R) 40th District
Marilyn Lane (D) Minority Vice-Chair, 31st District
Scott Dianda (D) 110th District
David Rutledge (D) 54th District
Gretchen Driskell (D) 52nd District
Tom Cochran (D) 67th District
Charles Smiley (D) 50th District
_____________________________
Time to make some phone calls to defeat this thing.
Thursday, May 23, 2013
Congressional District 14 - Updated 2013 (MI-14)
2014 Update - Hansen Clarke came in on filing deadline wanting his old job back. He's got two strong opponents both from Southfield in Rudy Hobbs and Brenda Lawrence. Interesting last name for the Republican here. I wonder if Christina is related to John. That's not all that common of a last name.
MI-14 Update - 2013
The 2011 Update is here.
The 2009 Update is here.
Incumbent - Open in 2014, Gary Peters running for Senate
Challengers –Christina Conyers (R-Detroit), Hansen Clarke (D-Detroit), Burgess Foster (D-Detroit), Rudy Hobbs (D-Southfield), Brenda Lawrence (D-Southfield)
2012:
Gary Peters – 222535 – 81.79%
John Hauler – 38380 – 16.03%
-201687 vote difference
Approx (I included 55% of Detroit –didn’t break down precints)
Romney – 18.44%
Obama – 81.08%
2008: Approx
McCain – 18.28%
Obama – 81.00%
2004: approx
Bush – 19.31%
Kerry – 79.93%
Notes -West Bloomfield reprecincted. District has about 45% of Detroit. Detroit went 96% and 97% for Obama so I didn’t break down the precincts. I took the entire city vote and split it 55/45.
I think even those who don’t follow politics at all know that this district is safe democrat. It’s City of Detroit based. That’s all that need to be said.
This district is a VRA district which requires it to have a black majority. That’s one of the big reasons why the 13th and 14th districts have odd shapes. This district starts in SW Detroit, moves NE to pick up the Grosse Pointes and Harper Woods, goes west along 8 mile area to Royal Oak Twp and Oak Park in Oakland County, Picks up Southfield and Farmington Hills, and then goes up to Pontiac.
For the map, I’ll use the same color code, staying with the Dark Blue for 70% d areas that I used in Districts 5, 6, and 7
70%+Dem – Dark Blue
60%-69.99% - Blue
55%-59.99% - Slate Blue
50%-54.99% - Light Sky Blue
Less than 50% - Gold
R wins:
70%+Rep – Firebrick
60-69.99% - Red
55-59.99% - Orange Red
50-54.99% - Salmon
Less than 50% - Yellow
Tie – Spring Green
2012 (approx on map)
2008
2004
Detroit it what it is and even a Brian Banks, Mel Reynolds, or Rod Blagojevich would win this district because of it. The Grosse Pointes are once again screwed by geography. GP Park leans democrat with Detroiters moving there, but the others are still solid, for now. Farms and Shores are strongholds. Woods is solid. Grosse Pointe (City) is closer. Harper Woods used to be competitive, but it’s now 50/50 black/white and safe dem. Hamtramck is 80%+ Dem every election. Northwest of Detroit is Royal Oak Township. It’s the most democrat part of the state by percentage every election – even more so as Oak Park annexed the “whiter” part of the township. The vote count was 1515 to 5 for Obama. 99.28%. Oak Park and Southfield are 80%+ Dem and black majority. Southfield almost cracked 90% dem as the white population drops further. Oak Park is slightly less democrat with its Orthodox Jewish minority that will vote for some Republicans. (McCain won a precinct – Romney MIGHT have won that although Oak Park reprecincted since then so we don’t know) . Lathrup Village might as well be Southfield for election purposes.
West of there is Farmington Hills. It was competitive up through 2002. A lot of the old Reagan coalition there moved west. Rocky Raczkowski was the last Republican to win there for state rep. A lot of Southfield moved there. Romney improved on McCain, but only won two precincts here. North of there is West Bloomfield. It’s safe democrat as well at the top of the ticket, but sometimes winnable downticket with the right candidate. It’s largely Jewish, but there’s also sizable Chaldean, Asian, Polish, and black populations. It’s been consistently (outside of 08) 55-56% Dem.
Keego Harbor, Orchard Lake, and Sylvan Lake are there as bridges between West Bloomfield and Pontiac. Orchard Lake is safe R, Sylvan Lake leans R, and Keego Harbor leans D. They are small areas that don’t significantly affect the district. Pontiac is a democrat stronghold and always has been. It’s mostly black, but has significant Latin American and poor white populations. All go dem. It was 80% dem, and now is almost 90% dem.
Overall, the big key here will be the primary and the regional vote. Hansen Clark did not have a united Detroit. He won it, but Lawrence, Peters, and others got their share of votes there. Peters won in Southfield and Pontiac, which are more open to voting for whites than much of Detroit (outside Downtown, SW, and Far West side). I expect a very large primary for this district with Peters running for Senate.
MI-14 Update - 2013
The 2011 Update is here.
The 2009 Update is here.
Incumbent - Open in 2014, Gary Peters running for Senate
Challengers –Christina Conyers (R-Detroit), Hansen Clarke (D-Detroit), Burgess Foster (D-Detroit), Rudy Hobbs (D-Southfield), Brenda Lawrence (D-Southfield)
2012:
Gary Peters – 222535 – 81.79%
John Hauler – 38380 – 16.03%
-201687 vote difference
Approx (I included 55% of Detroit –didn’t break down precints)
Romney – 18.44%
Obama – 81.08%
2008: Approx
McCain – 18.28%
Obama – 81.00%
2004: approx
Bush – 19.31%
Kerry – 79.93%
Notes -West Bloomfield reprecincted. District has about 45% of Detroit. Detroit went 96% and 97% for Obama so I didn’t break down the precincts. I took the entire city vote and split it 55/45.
I think even those who don’t follow politics at all know that this district is safe democrat. It’s City of Detroit based. That’s all that need to be said.
This district is a VRA district which requires it to have a black majority. That’s one of the big reasons why the 13th and 14th districts have odd shapes. This district starts in SW Detroit, moves NE to pick up the Grosse Pointes and Harper Woods, goes west along 8 mile area to Royal Oak Twp and Oak Park in Oakland County, Picks up Southfield and Farmington Hills, and then goes up to Pontiac.
For the map, I’ll use the same color code, staying with the Dark Blue for 70% d areas that I used in Districts 5, 6, and 7
70%+Dem – Dark Blue
60%-69.99% - Blue
55%-59.99% - Slate Blue
50%-54.99% - Light Sky Blue
Less than 50% - Gold
R wins:
70%+Rep – Firebrick
60-69.99% - Red
55-59.99% - Orange Red
50-54.99% - Salmon
Less than 50% - Yellow
Tie – Spring Green
2012 (approx on map)
2008
2004
Detroit it what it is and even a Brian Banks, Mel Reynolds, or Rod Blagojevich would win this district because of it. The Grosse Pointes are once again screwed by geography. GP Park leans democrat with Detroiters moving there, but the others are still solid, for now. Farms and Shores are strongholds. Woods is solid. Grosse Pointe (City) is closer. Harper Woods used to be competitive, but it’s now 50/50 black/white and safe dem. Hamtramck is 80%+ Dem every election. Northwest of Detroit is Royal Oak Township. It’s the most democrat part of the state by percentage every election – even more so as Oak Park annexed the “whiter” part of the township. The vote count was 1515 to 5 for Obama. 99.28%. Oak Park and Southfield are 80%+ Dem and black majority. Southfield almost cracked 90% dem as the white population drops further. Oak Park is slightly less democrat with its Orthodox Jewish minority that will vote for some Republicans. (McCain won a precinct – Romney MIGHT have won that although Oak Park reprecincted since then so we don’t know) . Lathrup Village might as well be Southfield for election purposes.
West of there is Farmington Hills. It was competitive up through 2002. A lot of the old Reagan coalition there moved west. Rocky Raczkowski was the last Republican to win there for state rep. A lot of Southfield moved there. Romney improved on McCain, but only won two precincts here. North of there is West Bloomfield. It’s safe democrat as well at the top of the ticket, but sometimes winnable downticket with the right candidate. It’s largely Jewish, but there’s also sizable Chaldean, Asian, Polish, and black populations. It’s been consistently (outside of 08) 55-56% Dem.
Keego Harbor, Orchard Lake, and Sylvan Lake are there as bridges between West Bloomfield and Pontiac. Orchard Lake is safe R, Sylvan Lake leans R, and Keego Harbor leans D. They are small areas that don’t significantly affect the district. Pontiac is a democrat stronghold and always has been. It’s mostly black, but has significant Latin American and poor white populations. All go dem. It was 80% dem, and now is almost 90% dem.
Overall, the big key here will be the primary and the regional vote. Hansen Clark did not have a united Detroit. He won it, but Lawrence, Peters, and others got their share of votes there. Peters won in Southfield and Pontiac, which are more open to voting for whites than much of Detroit (outside Downtown, SW, and Far West side). I expect a very large primary for this district with Peters running for Senate.
| MI-14 | Romney | Obama | Total | Diff | GOP | DEM |
| Oakland County | ||||||
| Farmington Hills | 17784 | 26351 | 44487 | -8567 | 39.98% | 59.23% |
| Keego Harbor | 572 | 666 | 1251 | -94 | 45.72% | 53.24% |
| Lathrup Village | 462 | 2411 | 2896 | -1949 | 15.95% | 83.25% |
| Oak Park | 2320 | 12956 | 15338 | -10636 | 15.13% | 84.47% |
| Orchard Lake | 944 | 537 | 1490 | 407 | 63.36% | 36.04% |
| Pontiac | 2464 | 18964 | 21545 | -16500 | 11.44% | 88.02% |
| Royal Oak Twp | 5 | 1515 | 1526 | -1510 | 0.33% | 99.28% |
| Southfield | 4420 | 39052 | 43664 | -34632 | 10.12% | 89.44% |
| Sylvan Lake | 565 | 551 | 1126 | 14 | 50.18% | 48.93% |
| West Bloomfield | 16243 | 21064 | 37563 | -4821 | 43.24% | 56.08% |
| WB 2 | -809 | -777 | -1605 | -32 | 50.40% | 48.41% |
| WB 4 | -836 | -805 | -1656 | -31 | 50.48% | 48.61% |
| WB 5 | -797 | -791 | -1602 | -6 | 49.75% | 49.38% |
| WB 8 | -1036 | -805 | -1852 | -231 | 55.94% | 43.47% |
| WB 14 | -612 | -555 | -1178 | -57 | 51.95% | 47.11% |
| WB 25 | -845 | -753 | -1617 | -92 | 52.26% | 46.57% |
| Total | 40844 | 119581 | 161376 | -78737 | 25.31% | 74.10% |
| Wayne County | ||||||
| Detroit | 2708 | 126784 | 129862 | -124076 | 2.09% | 97.63% |
| Grosse Pointe | 1976 | 1517 | 3509 | 459 | 56.31% | 43.23% |
| GP Farms | 2426 | 1469 | 3916 | 957 | 61.95% | 37.51% |
| GP Park | 3350 | 3748 | 7154 | -398 | 46.83% | 52.39% |
| GP Shores | 1449 | 427 | 1879 | 1022 | 77.12% | 22.72% |
| GP Woods | 6157 | 4266 | 10469 | 1891 | 58.81% | 40.75% |
| Hamtramck | 535 | 4788 | 5376 | -4253 | 9.95% | 89.06% |
| Harper Woods | 1626 | 5906 | 7577 | -4280 | 21.46% | 77.95% |
| Total | 20227 | 148905 | 169742 | -128678 | 11.92% | 87.72% |
| Total All | 61071 | 268486 | 331118 | -207415 | 18.44% | 81.08% |
Congressional District 13 (MI-13) - Updated
Update 2014 - Conyers is running again and facing Horace Sheffield in the primary. I'm not sure which one is worse here. Conyers is at least old and will be gone soon. At least people will have a choice here.
MI-13 Update - 2013
The 2011 Update is here.
The 2009 Update is here.
Incumbent – John Conyers (D-Detroit)
Years in office as of 2014 election – 50
Challengers –Jeff Gorman (R-Garden City), Horace Sheffield (D-Detroit)
Years in office as of 2014 election – 50
Challengers –Jeff Gorman (R-Garden City), Horace Sheffield (D-Detroit)
2012:
John Conyers – 222535 – 82.15%
Harry Sawicki – 38380 – 14.17%
-184155 vote difference
Approx (I included 55% of Detroit –didn’t break down precints)
Romney – 14.12%
Obama – 85.33%
2008: Approx
McCain – 14.44%
Obama – 84.589%
2004: approx
Bush – 19.31%
Kerry – 79.93%
-80650 vote difference
Notes – Dearborn Heights reprecincted. District has about
55% of Detroit. Detroit is slightly over 50% of the district votes. Detroit
went 96% and 97% for Obama so I didn’t break down the precincts. I took the
entire city vote and split it 55/45.
I think even those who don’t follow politics at all know
that this district is safe democrat. It’s City of Detroit based. That’s all
that need to be said.
This district is a VRA district which requires it to have a
black majority. That’s one of the big reasons why the 13th and 14th
districts have odd shapes. This district is solely in Wayne County and covers a
path between Inkster and Romulus to Ecorse and River Rouge through Detroit.
For the map, I’ll use the same color code, staying with the
Dark Blue for 70% d areas that I used in Districts 5, 6, and 7
70%+Dem – Dark Blue
60%-69.99% - Blue
55%-59.99% - Slate Blue
50%-54.99% - Light Sky Blue
Less than 50% - Gold
R wins:
70%+Rep – Firebrick
60-69.99% - Red
55-59.99% - Orange Red
50-54.99% - Salmon
Less than 50% - Yellow
Tie – Spring Green
2012 (approx on map)
2008
2004
Starting on the SW end, Romulus is the home of Detroit Metro
Airport. It’s safe democrat and has been as long as I remember. It’s long had a
large black population, but it’s close to 50/50 today. It’s gone over 70% dem the last three
elections, lately 78 and 79%. Obama did better here in 2012 than 2008. Next
door is Wayne and Westland. Those are both heavily union, either UAW or Airport
workers. They are both about 17% black, and in Westland’s case, heavily
increasing. East of Westland is Inkster and Garden City. Garden City is still
overwhelmingly white and union. It’s consistently 54-58% democrat. Inkster is
and has been majority black. It’s gone from 88% dem in 04 to 94% dem today. Romney
did worse than McCain in all of these areas.
East of there is Dearborn Heights. Most of it is in this
district. Romney did worse than McCain here as well. It’s white, but less so
than it was, especially as the Parkland and Warrendale section’s of Detroit are
emptying out. North of there is Redford.
Redford Twp has gone from being competitive and “conservadem” as recently as
the 90’s to 57% Kerry, 66% Obama 08, and 70% Obama 2012. Migration. A lot of
the Irish and Polish there are moving out, and a lot of Detroiters are moving
it. It was 28% black in 2010. It’ll be black majority by the end of the decade.
South of Detroit is Melvindale, Ecorse, and River Rouge. All
three have long been democrat strongholds due to both labor and minorities. Ecorse
and River Rouge are majority minority with a black plurality. Obama did better
in all three areas in 2012 than in 2008. Melvindale went 72% for Obama, and the
others went about 90%.
While Conyers runs slightly behind the ticket, this seat is
likely his until he retires or dies in office. He survived a credible primary
opponent in Glenn Anderson despite Monica Conyers being behind bars. He’s safe.
There’s a long bench for this district if it opens up for the dems.
| MI-13 | Romney | Obama | Total | Diff | GOP | DEM |
| Wayne County | ||||||
| Dearborn Hghts (most) | 8386 | 15019 | 23645 | -6633 | 35.47% | 63.52% |
| DH24 | -327 | -463 | -797 | 136 | 41.03% | 58.09% |
| DH25 | -301 | -585 | -895 | 284 | 33.63% | 65.36% |
| dh 26 | -301 | -449 | -763 | 148 | 39.45% | 58.85% |
| dh 27 | -286 | -501 | -796 | 215 | 35.93% | 62.94% |
| dh 911ac | -468 | -542 | -1021 | 74 | 45.84% | 53.09% |
| Detroit (55% of city) | 3310 | 154959 | 158721 | -151649 | 2.09% | 97.63% |
| Ecorse | 327 | 3350 | 3702 | -3023 | 8.83% | 90.49% |
| Garden City | 5283 | 7230 | 12672 | -1947 | 41.69% | 57.05% |
| Highland Park | 43 | 3712 | 3759 | -3669 | 1.14% | 98.75% |
| Inkster | 567 | 10625 | 11228 | -10058 | 5.05% | 94.63% |
| Melvindale | 1028 | 2824 | 3884 | -1796 | 26.47% | 72.71% |
| Redford Twp | 6905 | 16835 | 23969 | -9930 | 28.81% | 70.24% |
| River Rouge | 320 | 2818 | 3156 | -2498 | 10.14% | 89.29% |
| Romulus | 2233 | 8747 | 11061 | -6514 | 20.19% | 79.08% |
| Wayne | 2477 | 5080 | 7630 | -2603 | 32.46% | 66.58% |
| Westland | 12598 | 23840 | 36759 | -11242 | 34.27% | 64.85% |
| Total | 41794 | 252499 | 295914 | -210705 | 14.12% | 85.33% |
Wednesday, May 22, 2013
Congressional District 11 (MI-11) - Updated
Update 2014: This is going to be an ugly race. Bentivolio has a tough primary against Trott. After that, the winner, likely wounded, will be facing a dem. Hopefully the dems all beat the hell out of each other.
Another thing to watch here is a possible primary.
There is a strong R bench in this district, and Bentivolio was not expected to
be a congressman. He had the guts and good fortune to get his petitions in and
have his name on the ballot in the primary. When McCotter was knocked out, he was it, and he won in the general against
a weak opponent. Will one of the Oakland Establishment run? If there’s a nasty
primary, will the other side vote for the losing candidate or skip the race?
This is going to be a real interesting district to watch in 2016.
MI-11 Update - 2013
The 2011 Update is here.
The 2009 Update is here.
Incumbent – Kerry Bentivolio (R-Milford Twp)
Years in office as of 2014 election – 2
Challengers – Dave Trott (R-Birmingham), Anil Kumar (D-Farmington), Bobby McKenzie (D-Canton), Bill Roberts (D-Livonia), Nancy Skinner (D-Birmingham)
Years in office as of 2014 election – 2
Challengers – Dave Trott (R-Birmingham), Anil Kumar (D-Farmington), Bobby McKenzie (D-Canton), Bill Roberts (D-Livonia), Nancy Skinner (D-Birmingham)
2012:
Kerry Bentivolio – 180941 – 50.77%
Syed Taj – 158101 – 44.36%
22840 vote difference
Romney – 198323 votes – 52.24%
Obama – 177959 votes – 46.87%
20364 vote difference.
2008: (Approx – Clawson, Rochester Hills, Northville, West
Bloomfield reprecincted)
McCain – 48.35%
Obama – 50.14%
2004: (approx)
Bush – 55.86%
Kerry – 43.19%
Notes – Clawson, Rochester Hills, and West Bloomfield
reprecincted which makes this tough to get good numbers. Northville (Wayne
County Portion) either reported with the Township or their numbers in 2012 didn’t
get posted. Clawson is slightly dem. Rochester Hills is R. The portion of West
Bloomfield in this district is competitive compared to the portion in MI-14
that is staunchly democrat. I took a guess on 08 and 04 with those areas, and
skipped the Wayne County part of Northville (city) in 2012 assuming it was
reported with the township.
This district received a lot of attention in 2012. Thad
McCotter, then incumbent ran for president. He then dropped and ran for
congress. His campaign staff was caught in a major petition fraud scandal and
McCotter resigned and did not run for re-election. The old district elected (on
November) democrat David Curson to replace him for a short period. Kerry
Bentivolio was the only name on the ballot. He beat write-ins, lost to Curson,
and beat Syed Taj. At first, I thought there would be name bias against Taj due
to some campaign experiences I’ve had. There wasn’t really. The congressional
race generally went similar to the top of the ticket. The old district had some
strong democrat areas no longer in the district.
For the map, I’ll use the same color code, staying with the
Dark Blue for 70% d areas that I used in Districts 5, 6, and 7
70%+Dem – Dark Blue
60%-69.99% - Blue
55%-59.99% - Slate Blue
50%-54.99% - Light Sky Blue
Less than 50% - Gold
R wins:
70%+Rep – Firebrick
60-69.99% - Red
55-59.99% - Orange Red
50-54.99% - Salmon
Less than 50% - Yellow
Tie – Spring Green
2012 (approx on map)
2008
2004
Starting at the southwest corner is the Wayne County portion
of the map. That big blue spot in the SW is Canton Township (part of it on the
map). Canton is becoming a trouble spot for it. It’s been tough for awhile, but
it flipped big in 2008 and 2012. The
dems broke 55% here twice after Bush winning it twice. Part of it is the
growing (and voting) Indian population, along with some migration from Westland
and Ypsi/Ann Arbor. While there’s a lot of money in Canton, there’s also a bit
of a populist streak here compared to Northville or Plymouth Twp’s next door.
Some work has to be done here so that Canton is not the next Westland when it
comes to voting.
Northeast of there is Livonia. Livonia is the largest city
in the district and it’s usually consistent. Outside of the bad year of 2008,
the Republicans have gotten in the low 50’s in the city rather consistently. It
is a little more social conservative than most suburbs in that region, but also
a little more populist than next door Plymouth/Northville. It’s largely white
ethnic Catholic. Thad McCotter fit the district.
West of there is Plymouth and Northville. The townships are
safe republican. Even McCain won them, although Bush got over 60% in Northville
Twp. Romney got 58% in Northville Twp and 56% (Bush 57%) in Plymouth Twp. The
city of Plymouth swings and votes for both R’s and D’s. Bush won it twice
(barely). McCain was crushed. Romney lost it narrowly. I’m not sure how Romney
did in the city of Northville on the Wayne County side, but it usually goes R,
2008 notwithstanding. Romney won it with 52% which is a far cry from Bush’s 55%+.
That’s due to Canton being the 2nd to Livonia in population in this
district.
North of Livonia is Farmington. Farmington Hills surrounds
90% of Farmington, but is in the 14th District. Farmington was
consistently republicans as recently as 2005 or so. Romney did worse than
McCain here by percentage and almost equal in votes. Bush’s 51% is now Romney’s
42.02%. Migration.
North of Northville Twp is Novi and the Oakland part of
Northville which is slightly more R than the Wayne County part of Northville
(City). Novi is a major danger zone and area of concern right now. If you told
me 8 years ago that Obama would win Novi in 2008 and that Romney would get 50%
there, I’d laugh in your face. It was 57% in 2004 and was 60%+ not long before
that. It was a base city. Now it may become the next Farmington Hills.
Migration is part of it, and so is the immigrant Indian population voting
heavily democrat.
North of there is Wixom, Walled Lake, and Commerce Township.
Commerce Township has stayed solid R. Romney’s 58% was just shy of Bush’s 59%.
With West Bloomfield to the East, that’s a township to keep watch on. It hasn’t
gone in the direction of Novi or Farmington Hills as least for now. Walled Lake
is and was a swing area for a long time. Gore, Bush, Obama, and Romney won it.
Wixom moved heavily dem after the Ford plant closed. One precinct is the major
problem. It’s full of cheap apartments. A lot of the apartments were rented to
commuted auto workers who needed a place to crash. After the plant closed, they
all opened up to new residents. These apartments here aren’t exactly high
dollar. Romney won three of the four precincts in Wixom, one by nearly 2-1. The
largest precinct he lost 1185-378.
North of there is White Lake Twp. It’s safe R, although it
dropped below 60% Bush got 61% here to Romney’s 58%. Along the western tier next
to Novi, Wixom, Commerce, and White Lake are the most Republican parts of the
district. Lyon Township, South Lyon, Milford Twp, and Highland Twp. Those areas
aren’t much different than Livingston County in its politics. Those are 60%+
areas usually outside of the City of South Lyon which usually is still 55% or
more R.
East of Commerce Twp is West Bloomfield Twp. Most of it,
including the areas that make is solidly D, are in the 14th
district. The part here is competitive and sometimes goes R. Romney won the
parts here. North of there is competitive Waterford Twp. Bush won it twice, but
it wasn’t won easily. It’s historically blue collar white and pro-union. Part
of that is still there. There are also some affluent areas in Waterford due to
the lakefronts. There’s also some movement from Pontiac also affecting the
area. Romney won it, but barely broke 50%. Bush did much better here in 04,
although he struggled in 2000 here.
Lake Angelus next door has only about 250 voters and it’s
80%+R unless you’re McCain. Auburn Hills is another story. It was formerly
Republican despite Oakland University until Pontiac moved there. Now it’s 25%+
black and went more dem in 2012 than 2008. Migration. East of Auburn Hills is
Rochester Hills. It’s mostly in the 8th. Part of it is a bridge to
Troy. Troy leans R, but not like it was. Bush got 56% there. Romney got 52%.
Troy has a large Indian population. Like Novi, if you told me it would go dem
in 2008, I’d laugh in your face. I’m not laughing. Clawson south of Troy is
tougher territory. It went for Gore, Bush, and Obama twice. I don’t know a lot of
Clawson except driving through it.
Lastly, to the west of Troy is Birmingham and Bloomfield
Hills. Birmingham is probably the most socially liberal somewhat republican
area in the state. It’s very affluent and well known for its money. Romney did
very well here, doing slightly better than Bush in 2004. McCain cratered here.
Bloomfield Hills is more conservative, and was Romney’s best area outside of
Sylvan Lake. He got 66%, running ahead of Bush here as well. When you hear
about “moderate Oakland County”, this is the area that is usually described.
Overall, this is a district to watch. Can Republicans stop
the bleeding here in Canton, Novi, and Troy? That’s a must, if Republicans are
going to be competitive in the state, and it’s a must if this district wants to
avoid hitting another Gary Peters type in 2008. Commerce Twp is also one to
watch just due to geography, as is Livonia (East side in particular).
| MI-11: | Romney | Obama | Total | Diff | GOP | DEM |
| Oakland County | ||||||
| Auburn Hills | 3776 | 5608 | 9512 | -1832 | 39.70% | 58.96% |
| Birmingham | 7136 | 5826 | 13035 | 1310 | 54.74% | 44.70% |
| Bloomfield Hills | 1843 | 916 | 2767 | 927 | 66.61% | 33.10% |
| Clawson 2 | 508 | 692 | 1220 | -184 | 41.64% | 56.72% |
| Clawson 3 | 572 | 617 | 1207 | -45 | 47.39% | 51.12% |
| Clawson 4 | 496 | 537 | 1059 | -41 | 46.84% | 50.71% |
| Clawson 5 | 724 | 786 | 1533 | -62 | 47.23% | 51.27% |
| Commerce Twp | 12596 | 8673 | 21487 | 3923 | 58.62% | 40.36% |
| Farmington | 2471 | 3370 | 5881 | -899 | 42.02% | 57.30% |
| Highland Twp | 6307 | 3847 | 10292 | 2460 | 61.28% | 37.38% |
| Lake Angelus | 216 | 38 | 256 | 178 | 84.38% | 14.84% |
| Lyon Twp | 5067 | 3025 | 8152 | 2042 | 62.16% | 37.11% |
| Milford Twp | 5673 | 3569 | 9317 | 2104 | 60.89% | 38.31% |
| Northville | 1203 | 927 | 2156 | 276 | 55.80% | 43.00% |
| Novi | 14714 | 14110 | 29074 | 604 | 50.61% | 48.53% |
| Novi Twp | 55 | 46 | 101 | 9 | 54.46% | 45.54% |
| Rochester Hills 1-6 | 784 | 689 | 1493 | 95 | 52.51% | 46.15% |
| RH 3-3 | 492 | 454 | 957 | 38 | 51.41% | 47.44% |
| RH 3-13 | 552 | 432 | 992 | 120 | 55.65% | 43.55% |
| South Lyon | 3258 | 2427 | 5729 | 831 | 56.87% | 42.36% |
| Troy | 22316 | 19915 | 42588 | 2401 | 52.40% | 46.76% |
| Walled Lake | 1680 | 1638 | 3365 | 42 | 49.93% | 48.68% |
| Waterford Twp | 17896 | 17299 | 35645 | 597 | 50.21% | 48.53% |
| West Bloomfield Twp 2 | 809 | 777 | 1605 | 32 | 50.40% | 48.41% |
| WB 4 | 836 | 805 | 1656 | 31 | 50.48% | 48.61% |
| WB 5 | 797 | 791 | 1602 | 6 | 49.75% | 49.38% |
| WB 8 | 1036 | 805 | 1852 | 231 | 55.94% | 43.47% |
| WB 14 | 612 | 555 | 1178 | 57 | 51.95% | 47.11% |
| WB 25 | 845 | 753 | 1617 | 92 | 52.26% | 46.57% |
| White Lake Twp | 9168 | 6406 | 15753 | 2762 | 58.20% | 40.67% |
| Wixom | 3217 | 3229 | 6499 | -12 | 49.50% | 49.68% |
| Total | 127655 | 109562 | 239580 | 18093 | 53.28% | 45.73% |
| Wayne County | ||||||
| Canton Twp | 19912 | 25021 | 45268 | -5109 | 43.99% | 55.27% |
| Livonia | 28608 | 26229 | 55274 | 2379 | 51.76% | 47.45% |
| Northville | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| Northville Twp | 10085 | 7094 | 17248 | 2991 | 58.47% | 41.13% |
| Plymouth | 2506 | 2689 | 5239 | -183 | 47.83% | 51.33% |
| Plymouth Twp | 9557 | 7364 | 17041 | 2193 | 56.08% | 43.21% |
| Total | 70668 | 68397 | 140070 | 2271 | 50.45% | 48.83% |
| Total All | 198323 | 177959 | 379650 | 20364 | 52.24% | 46.87% |
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