Thursday, October 30, 2014

Last minute 2014 General Election updates (Livingston County)

Sorry for the lack of updates. Between my real job and county party duties, I haven't had the time to update this. I wish I did so before the absentee votes came out.

First off, I'll say that these are my opinions and not those of LCRP.

Secondly, some predict a wave election in the bag because it is an off-year. I don't see it. This ain't 2010. This ain't 1994. This isn't 2008 or 2006. I think it's somewhere between 1990, 2002, 2004, or to a lesser extent 2012. Not quite a status quo election, but close. Obama's an issue, but this is a state level election were state issues dominate.

Governor - I've had my ups and downs with Rick Snyder at times. He's a helluva lot better than Schauer. I give my reasons of voting for him in the previous post. I think he wins, but it's going to be close. It depends how many conservatives show up and vote - and how many union folks vote.

Senate - I hope Terri Lynn Land wins it. I've known her since her first run in 2002. She's a good person who did a very good job as Secretary of State. I also think a lot of consultants and pundits (I never cared for "That's Criminal" Frank Beckmann - go Spartans!) have done her a disservice by running their mouths to the press instead of trying to help her win. There was no primary. When some were begging for someone (Mike Rogers and Dave Camp were heavily recruited) to run, she stepped up and did it. Gary Peters simply has a history of doing what he's told (like Schauer). Whatever Pelosi wants, Peters delivered. The same goes for leadership back when Peters was in the State Senate. Easy vote for me. I'm voting for someone that actually ran a department. It'll be an upset if Land wins, but I think the polls are off a bit. I don't see this going double digits, and expect it to be about 5% or less. With the right turnout, I can see an upset.

Secretary of State and Attorney General - I don't see Ruth Johnson or Bill Schuette losing this.

Congress - I think Bishop has this by about 10% or so. I'm starting to see more from Schertzing, but I haven't seen much (surprisingly) - especially for 30%+ of the vote already in. Nothing with Lansing and East Lansing in the district is safe, but I don't see this flipping. Schertzing will be strong to an extent in Ingham County, but is virtually unknown in the rest of the district.

State Senate - Joe Hune's doing what he has to do to win and will do so Tuesday, much to the wailing of the local dems. His two-faced opponent raised and spent 80K and is running ads sounding like a "no labels" candidate when in fact she's an extreme leftist who supports higher taxes (services, vehicle registrations, and property taxes), is against industry in the name of global warming, and supports late term taxpayer funded abortions. I don't think it will work. In one blog interview she had, she bragged about knocking on around 100 doors so far in the week she gave the interview (3-4 day period). That isn't going to cut it. Her data of the partisan makeup of the district is also incorrect (and I have the same data list that she has)  She also wasn't aware of Joe Hune being in Washtenaw County until the candidate forums. Joe's worked the entire district and that started long before the candidate forums. The dems are going after Joe and firing off nasty attacks, but that's a good way to join the ranks of Frank McAlpine, Jim Marcinkowski, and Mike Tipton. Nasty political attacks results in an ass kicking.

State Rep - Safe for Lana Theis and Doc Vaupel. Both candidates worked extremely hard in the primaries and are still running their campaigns. Tim Johnson is so far out of the mainstream to have a ghost of a chance, and Lana's outworking him in a big way. Lana will do well, both here and in Lansing. Jordan Genso's a nice guy, but he's got about as tough of a matchup as it gets. Vaupel's going to be a great rep who will do the county proud.

Supreme Court - Zahra, Viviano, and Redford. All of them do a great job. The dems are pushing Richard Bernstein. Nothing against him, but I can't vote for someone for Supreme Court who does not have judicial experience. While ideological issues get the hype, most of the work is with procedural issues, and that's where the judicial experience really matters.


District Court - Dennis Brewer, hands down. I couldn't vote for Theresa Brennan even if she was a Republican. I'll just let Attorney Linda Walker explain one of the biggest reasons. I don't know Linda well, although I've met her a couple of times this year. As someone who has argued a PPO case in court (not in front of Brennan), I was flabbergasted the first time I heard that story. I remember the actual crime, but didn't know about this hearing beforehand. Dennis Brewer had my vote.

County Commissioner - The Republicans have done a good job there. The budget is balanced, every year and the taxes are low. They dealt with some tough situations outside of their control and have done a good job there. I see two seats that I'm keeping an eye on that could be close. One I don't see close but want to mention is District 5. Make sure Don Parker gets your vote. His opponent would embarrass the county with his mouth. 

University Boards
MSU - Jeff Sakwa is a great guy. He works extremely hard, is a good businessman, and cares heavily about the Spartans. Melanie Foster also has my support.


UM - Dr Rob Steele is a good guy I've crossed paths with on several occasions. Ambassador Ron Weiser was a very good state chair for our party and also has my vote. 


School Board:
Brighton - I'd support two. John Conely and Miles Vieau. Conely especially is doing a great job there. I'd short vote to help their chances.

Howell - There are two "unopposed" and a write-in who will win. I know of two of the people running there. Deb Drick did a good job on the board previously. If I still lived in Howell, I would FILL IN THE CIRCLE and vote for Deb Drick. Don't forget to fill in the circle. I've met Adam Hukkala a few times. Nice kid, but he goes to college in Grand Valley. Grand Rapids is two hours from Howell. Will he have enough time to do the job?

 Hartland - Charlie Aberasturi is a good guy.





 NOVEMBER 4, 2014  BALLOT PROPOSALS (offered without comment)

TYRONE TOWNSHIP PUBLIC SAFETY PROPOSAL
Shall a special assessment district be created, encompassing all of Tyrone Township, for purposes of purchasing public safety services and general operations for fire protection, and annually assessing each parcel of land as follows:
a) Vacant parcels, $85;
b) Parcels with residential structures, $175;
c) All other parcels, $300;
d) For those parcels containing structures or manufactured homes with multiple units, an additional sum of $20 per unit will be assessed,
with the assessments levied for a period of 6 years commencing in 2015 and continuing through and including 2020? The first year of the assessment shall generate estimated revenues of $684,880. During the term of this assessment, the assessment may be increased in an amount not to exceed 10% of the original assessment or decreased by an amount deemed appropriate by the Tyrone Township Board.

HOWELL PUBLIC SCHOOLS
OPERATING MILLAGE RENEWAL PROPOSAL
This proposal will allow the school district to levy the statutory rate of 18 mills on all property, except principal residence and other property exemp
ted by law, required for the school district to receive its revenue per pupil foundation allowance and renews millage that will expire with the
2015 tax levy.
Shall the currently authorized millage rate limitation of 19.0495 mills ($19.0495 on each $1,000 of taxable valuation) on the amount of taxes which may be assessed against all property, except principal residence and other property exempted by law, in Howell Public Schools, Livingston
County, Michigan, be renewed for a period of 12 years, 2016 to 2027, inclusive, to provide funds for operating purposes; the estimate of the revenue the school district will collect if the millage is approved and levied in 2016 is approximately $11,540,141 (this is a renewal of millage which will expire with the 2015 tax levy)?

HAMBURG TOWNSHIP ROAD MILLAGE PROPOSAL
Is Hamburg Township, Livingston County, Michigan, authorized to levy against all real property in the Township an amount not to exceed 2.00 mill ($2.00 on each $1,000 of taxable value) for a period of five (5) years, 2014 to 2018 inclusive, and 1.00 mill ($1.00 on each $1,000 of taxable value) for a period of 10 years, from 2019 through 2028 inclusive, for the purpose of improvements, repair and maintenance of public roads in Hamburg Township? Improvements would include repaving of paved roads, chip sealing of paved roads, adding gravel to gravel roads, and related drainage improvements. If this new millage is approved and levied in December 2014, the estimated amount of revenue that would be collected in the first year would be approximately $1,831,500.

WHITMORE LAKE PUBLIC SCHOOLS ANNEXATION AND ASSUMPTION OF BONDED INDEBTEDNESS PROPOSITION
This proposal is only effective if the electors of the Public Schools of the City of Ann Arbor on November 4, 2014 approve the assumption of the bonded indebtedness of Whitmore Lake Public School District.
Shall Whitmore Lake Public School District, Washtenaw and Livingston Counties, Michigan, be annexed to Public Schools of the City of Ann Arbor, Washtenaw County, Michigan effective July 1, 2015 and on the effective date of annexation, assume the bonded indebtedness of Public
Schools of the City of Ann Arbor?

CROMAINE DISTRICT LIBRARY BALLOT PROPOSAL
Shall the Cromaine District Library, County of Livingston, Michigan, borrow the sum of not to exceed Twelve Million Dollars ($12,000,000) and issue its general obligation unlimited tax bonds therefor, payable in not to exceed twenty (20) years from date of issuance exclusive of refunding,
for the purpose of paying all or part of the costs of acquiring, constructing, furnishing and equipping an expansion and improvements to the Cromaine Library, including related parking and site improvements? The estimated millage to be levied in 2015 is 0.85 mills ($0.85 per $1,000 of taxable value) and the estimated simple average annual millage rate required to retire the bonds is 0.76 mils ($0.76 per $1,000 of taxable value).

PINCKNEY COMMUNITY SCHOOLS
OPERATING MILLAGE RENEWAL PROPOSAL
This proposal will allow the school district to levy the statutory rate of 18 mills on all property, except principal residence and other property exempted by law, required for the school district to receive its revenue per pupil foundation allowance and renews millage that will expire with the
2014 tax levy.
Shall the currently authorized millage rate limitation of 18 mills ($18.00 on each $1,000 of taxable valuation) on the amount of taxes which may be assessed against all property, except principal residence and other property exempted by law, in Pinckney Community Schools, Livingston and
Washtenaw Counties, Michigan, be renewed for a period of 6 years, 2015 to 2020, inclusive, to provide funds for operating purposes; the estimate
of the revenue the school district will collect if the millage is approved and levied in 2015 is approximately $3,728,530 (this is a renewal of
millage which will expire with the 2014 tax levy?





IOSCO TOWNSHIP ROAD MAINTENANCE AND IMPROVEMENT MILLAGE RENEWAL PROPOSAL
To provide funds, One Point Four One Three Three (1.4133) Mills ($1.4133 per $1,000.00 of State Taxable Valuation) for the improvement, maintenance, and dust control of public roads in Iosco Township for a period of five (5) years beginning December 2015.
Shall the expired previous voted increases in the tax limitations imposed under Article IX, Sec. 6 of the Michigan Constitution in Iosco Township, of 1.5 mills ($1.50 per $1,000.00 of taxable value), reduced to 1.4133 mills ($1.4133 per $1,000.00 of taxable value) by the required millage rollbacks, be renewed at 1.4133 mills ($1.4133 per $1,000.00 of taxable value) and levied for a period of five (5) years from 2015 through 2019 inclusive for funding road maintenance, road improvements and dust control for the public roads of the Township of Iosco, Livingston County, Michigan, raising an estimated $178,000.00 in the first year the millage is levied?


HARTLAND TOWNSHIP ROAD MAINTENANCE AND IMPROVEMENT MILLAGE PROPOSAL
Shall the tax limitation imposed under Article IX, Sec. 6 of the Michigan Constitution on all taxable real and tangible personal property within the Township of Hartland, Livingston County, Michigan, be increased for said Township in an amount not to exceed 1.5 mills ($1.50 on each $1,000 of
taxable value) for a period of ten (10) years, 2014 to 2023, inclusive, to provide funds for the purpose of road maintenance and improvements, including grading, storm water drainage and chloride treatment; and shall the Township levy such new additional millage for said purpose; the
estimate of the revenue the Township of Hartland will collect if the millage is approved and levied by the Township in the 2014 calendar year is approximately $873,000?


STOCKBRIDGE COMMUNITY SCHOOLS
OPERATING MILLAGE RENEWAL PROPOSAL
This proposal will allow the school district to levy the statutory rate of 18 mills on all property, except principal residence and other property exempted by law, required for the school district to receive its revenue per pupil foundation allowance and renews millage that will expire with the
2014 tax levy.
Shall the currently authorized millage rate limitation of 23.2595 mills ($23.2595 on each $1,000 of taxable valuation) on the amount of taxes which may be assessed against all property, except principal residence and other property exempted by law, in Stockbridge Community Schools,
Ingham, Jackson, Livingston and Washtenaw Counties, Michigan, be renewed for a period of 4 years, 2015 to 2018, inclusive, to provide funds for operating purposes; the estimate of the revenue the school district will collect if the millage is approved and 18 mills are levied in 2015 is approximately $1,650,000 (this is a renewal of millage which will expire with the 2014 tax levy)?

3 comments:

john ewing said...

So you're opinion that all the Republicans will and should win is not the position of the LCRP ?

Tyrone Proposal looks like a corrupt joke:

parcels with residence - which actually need and will use public service - $175.

parcels without residence - presumably some of which are simply vacant land which will not use the services - $300.

Please tell me that's misprint rather than an attempt to get property owners who won't use the service....to pay double !

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