Monday, March 31, 2014

MI-08 - Poll calls are out (Updated - Poll from Murray Communications)

I got a call from one of the county folks here. He said he was receiving a poll that listed five potential candidates for the 8th District. This was likely paid by the candidate or a "friend of the program" and it listed five names. We both expected it was paid for by someone not yet in doing a poll for a starting point.

Going in alphabetical order

Saul Anuzis
Bryan Barnett
Mike Bishop
Steve Hantler
Joe Hune.



 --------------------------
UPDATED:

The poll was from Murray Communications, a consulting firm that works for Marty Knollenberg. It's a wide open race. Joe Hune hasn't decided. I've heard Hantler is unlikely and he doesn't live in the district. Anuzis hasn't decided.


FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE      
TUESDAY, APRIL 1, 2014

CONTACT: MURRAY COMMUNICATIONS: (517) 505-0447
PORTABLE INSIGHTS: (401) 352-4005 x210    
COMBAT DATA: (517) 449-7058

BISHOP LEADS HUNE AMONG REPUBLICANS IN RACE TO REPLACE ROGERS

OKEMOS, MI – Former State Senate Majority Leader Mike Bishop (R-Rochester) holds a 22.96% to 17.65% lead over State Senator Joe Hune (R-Fowlerville) in the race to succeed retiring Congressman Mike Rogers, according to a survey of Republican primary voters conducted by Murray Communications-Portable Insights-Combat Data. Nearly half of respondents were undecided.

In addition to Bishop and Hune, the following Republicans were included in the survey: Saul Anuzis (R-Lansing), Bryan Barnett (R-Rochester Hills), and Steve Hantler (R-West Bloomfield).

The automated survey of 884 likely 8th District Republican primary voters was conducted on Monday, March 31 and has a margin of error of 3.29%. Full results follow:

8th District..............100.00% (884)

Mike Bishop................22.96% (203)
Joe Hune...................17.65% (156)
Bryan Barnett...............5.66%  (50)
Saul Anuzis.................3.51%  (31)
Steve Hantler...............1.58%  (14)
Undecided..................48.64% (430)

“Bishop’s numbers initial numbers are good, but there may be dark clouds on the horizon as other Oakland County based candidates ramp up their campaigns. So far, Hune has Livingston County all to himself and next door Ingham County is wide open,” said Mike Murray of Murray Communications.

“Aside from the loud ticking coming from nominating petition clock for the potential candidates, this primary is still in it primordial stage. Geographically, Hune’s centralized location should give him vote momentum opportunities in both directions fairly quickly if he gets in the game,” said Brian Bellgowan of Combat Data.

“The field is still pretty fluid and voters are up for grabs,” said Christopher Mark of Portable Insights. “Nearly half of voters are not settled on any of these candidates, meaning that any one of them -- or perhaps someone else -- has a chance to break out, but they’re going to have to act quickly.”

The poll is a collaborative effort between Murray Communications, a Michigan-based Republican political consulting firm; Portable Insights, a Rhode Island-based opinion research company; and Combat Data Inc., a Michigan-based political data and voter outreach services company. 

Murray Communications can be contacted by phone at (517) 505-0447, by email at contact@murrcomm.net or on the Internet at www.MurrayCommunications.com. Facebook: facebook.com/murrcomm Twitter: @MurrComm.

Portable Insights can be contacted at (401) 352-4005 x210, or by email at chris@portableinsights.com or on the Internet at www.PortableInsights.com. Facebook: facebook.com/portableinsights Twitter: @VoteMiner.

Combat Data can be contacted at (517) 449-7058, by email at listdp@comcast.net, or on the Internet at www.CombatData.com.
Facebook: facebook.com/combatdatainc

None of the companies currently represent any of the individuals named in the poll.

# # #

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL UNIVERSE AND SELECTION CRITERIA:
884 identified Republicans who have voted in at least two out of the last three primary elections.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

8th District Congressional Robo Poll - Script
March 31, 2014
884 Sample, MOE 3.29% @ 95% Confidence

This is an automated survey of Republican Primary voters. This one-question survey will take approximately 90 seconds to complete. 

Current Republican Congressman Mike Rogers announced last week that he would not seek reelection. There are five Republicans who’ve either announced they’re running, or expressed an interest in running.

In August, Republicans will vote in a Primary Election to select their party’s choice for the November General Election.

I will now read you the names of these five Republicans -- twice. I will then ask you to use the touch-tone on your phone to select the individual you prefer THE MOST. If you are undecided, you will have the option to indicate that.

Please listen carefully, the Republicans are:

Saul Anuzis
Bryan Barnett
Mike Bishop
Joe Hune
Steve Hantler

Those Republicans, again, in a different order, are:

Joe Hune
Mike Bishop
Steve Hantler
Saul Anuzis
Bryan Barnett

If you would like to hear those names again, please press ZERO now. If you’re ready to choose, please wait for prompt, as the names will be read, again, in a different order.

Q1 If your choice is Steve Hantler, please press ONE NOW
If your choice is Bryan Barnett, please press TWO NOW
If your choice is Joe Hune, please press THREE NOW
If your choice is Mike Bishop, please press FOUR NOW
If your choice is Saul Anuzis, please press FIVE NOW
If you’re Undecided, please press SIX NOW.

This concludes our survey. This survey was paid for by Murray Communications, Portable Insights and Combat Data, and is not authorized by any candidate or candidate committee.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

COUNTY BREAKOUTS:

Oakland County.............45.02% (398)

Mike Bishop................42.96% (171)
Bryan Barnett..............10.55%  (42)
Saul Anuzis.................3.27%  (13)
Joe Hune....................1.76%   (7)
Steve Hantler...............1.51%   (6)
Undecided..................39.95% (159)
---------------------------------------

Livingston County..........34.95% (309)

Joe Hune...................44.34% (137)
Mike Bishop.................5.50%  (17)
Saul Anuzis.................1.94%   (6)
Steve Hantler...............1.94%   (6)
Bryan Barnett...............1.29%   (4)
Undecided..................44.98% (139)
---------------------------------------

Ingham County..............20.02% (177)

Mike Bishop.................8.47%  (15)
Saul Anuzis.................6.78%  (12)
Joe Hune....................6.78%  (12)
Bryan Barnett...............2.26%   (4)
Steve Hantler...............1.13%   (2)
Undecided..................74.58% (132)

MI-04 - Dave Camp retiring

From Detroit Free Press

WASHINGTON — U.S. Rep. Dave Camp, a Republican from Midland who has in recent years chaired the powerful House Ways and Means Committee, will not seek re-election this year, adding to the growing number of Michigan members of Congress heading toward the exits.
Camp, 60, made the announcement official late today, saying the decision was “reached after much consideration and discussion with my family.” He did not give a reason for the decision.
In recent years, Camp has been a fervent proponent of changing and simplifying the U.S. tax code but there seemed to be little enthusiasm for making such a change in advance of the midterm elections. Because of House Republican rules, Camp will be forced to step down as Ways and Means chairman at the end of this year

My old description of MI-04 is here:

Right now, there's one Republican candidate who was challenging Camp in the primary, Peter Konetchy, a businessman from Roscommon. Konetchy ran for Senate and nearly got 15000 signatures basically himself until Gary Glenn's people challenged his petitions and got 700 knocked off. Peter's a strong tea party activist, but unlike many didn't make the gaffes others have made in his Senate run.

I don't know who's going to go for it besides Konetchy who stepped up to the plate early. There are a lot of reps are in this district. Midland punches well above their numbers downticket and there are several potential candidates from there. (Stamases, Moolenaar). Kevin Cotter run ahead of the ticket in Mt Pleasant, as do the Cauls. Bruce Rendon and Tim Moore are Up North. Dr Roger Kahn in Saginaw County. Tom Leonard and Alan Cropsey in Clinton County. Judy Emmons in Montcalm County.

There's two Democrats that I can see making things real difficult, and that's the Sheltrown brothers. Dale and especially Joel were state reps out of Ogemaw County. They carried tough districts there and were outspoken 2nd Amendment supporters who ran well ahead of the ticket.

As I see this currently, if the dems run Sheltrown, lean R. If not, safe R. 


Sunday, March 30, 2014

The bogus email parades are back

I'll just say the old convention classic pastime is back, now for my primary. There's a bogus email being sent out with a bunch of stuff written by someone that "doesn't exist." I also don't particularly care for people who crap in my backyard.

If you are trying to help a certain person with that email, you aren't. This stuff doesn't play well in Livingston County. If you are receiving this email, put it in the circular file where it belongs. If the person can't list their (actual) name and something about who they area, then it's not that important to begin with.

Everyone has an agenda. Let's remember that.


MI-08 - Who's going to be my next Congressman?

Update 3-31-14 - Former State Senator Mike Bishop and Rochester Hills Mayor Bryan Barnett, both from the Rochester area are running. 

A new era is beginning here in the 8th District. 

(Full disclosure, I did some work for Sen. Joe Hune in his 2010 campaign)

With Mike Rogers retiring, things have significantly changed here. The 8th District leans Republican, but isn't a safe district with Mike Rogers retiring. It went for the dems at the top of the ticket in 2006 and 2008, and went for the Republicans in 2000, 2002, 2004, 2010, and 2012. I went over the presidential numbers in depth here and explored an open possibility here. I'm not going to rehash the presidential numbers much or the top of the ticket numbers much here. In an Republican year, we win. In a neutral year, we probably win, but candidate quality will matter more. In a bad year, we better have a damn good candidate. The top of the ticket will have its own variables. We have to control what we control, and that means voting for a good candidate in this August primary, whomever it may be.

There's a lot of rumors going on about candidates who are and who aren't running. I'm not going to do a lot of speculation except  to say that oftentimes the national reporters don't have any idea what they are talking about. If the person doesn't live in the district or have ties to the district, the person won't be a serious candidate more than likely. Especially if the districts don't all run together (like the Bloomfield area in the 9th, 11th, and 14th). The 8th isn't like that outside of a small part of Rochester Hills which is in both districts (mostly in the 8th).

Politics 1 mentions Saul Anuzis, Bryan Barnett, Mike Bishop, Mike Bouchard, Craig DeRoche, Gail Haines, Joe Hune, Rick Jones, Jim Marleau, Tom McMillin, Barb Byrum, Sam Singh, and Peter Spadafore as possible candidates (In addition to the two announced dems Ken Darga and Susan Grettenberger).  There was very little research done there and by the national press. Mike Bouchard and Craig DeRoche both live in the 11th District nowhere near the 8th. Birmingham and Novi. Jones is in Grand Ledge, in the 7th District. He's never represented any of the 8th. Gail Haines is in the 11th, and only represents a small part of the 8th. I don't expect many of those to be serious contenders. This is not a carpetbagging friendly area, especially away from Oakland County. One better have some good ties here at minimum. Bill Rogers has announced he's not running. Joe Hune and Mike Bishop are significant names who would be contenders if they choose to run.  They are considering. Saul Anuzis who lives in Lansing (although the Eaton County side - barely) announced he is considering.  Bryan Barnett (Rochester Hills Mayor) has apparently announced he's running.  If Brad Jacobsen, Tom McMillin, or Jim Marleau run, they certainly can't be counted out. I have not heard interest expressed by them, but this is a very recent announcement. On the dem side, I expect Barb Byrum to run. The other names I've heard there are sacrificial lamb candidates. Byrum would be a tougher candidate.

The filing deadline is April 22nd. This is significant. I'll be real blunt here. There's a petition requirement of 1000 valid signatures. That means 1500-2000 are more likely needed, and not "McCotter campaign staff" style. That means there isn't much time.  Three weeks. Whoever jumps in now has to have serious organization, or the ability to raise enough money to hire petition circulators.  Anyone that doesn't have instant organization to do that is wasting their time, their money, staff time,  and volunteer time.  I don't want to lose this seat to a democrat. The easiest way to see that happen is for there to be poor organization on the R side and a bad candidate due to that.

So who would be the strongest candidates?

That's a question where we would need an educated guess. I'm going to look at four potential Republican candidates for now in alphabetical order as these the names I've heard the most.  Saul Anuzis. Bryan Barnett. Mike Bishop. Joe Hune.  On the dem side, the only potential with any chance that I can see at this point is Barb Byrum. (Gretchen Whitmer isn't running).

I'll start with the democrat, Byrum. Barb Byrum won three races in a borderline swing/slightly democrat district in Ingham County, along with the Ingham County Clerk position. Byrum's old district, the old HD-67 covers rural Ingham County, Mason, Delhi Township, and Southwest Lansing.  I believe she's in the Mason or Leslie area. Dianne represented Onondaga. The Byrums have some strength in rural Ingham County, although their real base in the portion of Lansing in their district. This is the least democrat state rep district in the county, as the other two districts are all of Lansing or overwhelmingly East Lansing/Meridian Twp based.
Unfortunately, most of the analysis is through wave elections (06, 08, 10) so it's of limited use. However, Byrum probably has to match 2006 Granholm or 2008 Obama numbers to have a chance to win. 

Overall, she'll need to get numbers similar to Obama/Granholm in 06/08 if she's going to have a good shot winning. That means about 57% or better in the district. Mike Rogers always won this state rep district.  Byrum got about 58-59% in 2006 and 63% in 2008. 2010 was a scare for her, but she survived. 2012 was countywide and she got 68%. Lansing turnout will be the biggest key for her.

Saul Anuzis has never held elected office. He's been a Legislative Chief of Staff, a consultant, a State Party Chair, and an RNC Committeeman. He's been very active behind the scenes, but this would be new territory. 

I don't know much about Bryan Barnett. He won his Rochester Hills mayoral election easily in 2011. 77.29% to 22.46%. He won in 2007 with a similar margin.  Most of Rochester Hills is in the 8th District, but only as of the 2012 election. It's a big jump from mayor to Congress, even in a city of 71,000. It's slightly smaller than a state rep district.

Mike Bishop is former Senate Majority Leader and State Rep. He ran for St Senate in 2002 and 2006 winning easily. He ran for AG at a convention and lost a tight race to Bill Schuette. No shame there.  He lost to Jessica Cooper in the 2012 election for prosecutor by 5%. Straight tickets in places like Pontiac and Southfield did him in. The area he lost was not in the 8th district.
Bishop had mostly wave elections as well during his career, although 2000 and 2002 weren't waves.  In 1998, John Engler was an incumbent and had Geoffrey Fieger  as an opponent. Todd Akin post gaffe would win against Fieger.  Bishop ran 5% behind Engler, but got 70%+ in his district.
In 2000, he ran 8-10% better than Bush across the board. Nothing overlapped with Mike Rogers as none of his district at the time was in the 8th. Bishop was in the 1990's incarnation of HD-45 which was Addison Twp, Orion Twp, Oxford Twp, Oakland Twp, Rochester, and part of Rochester Hills. It was a blood red district and still is today. North Oakland outside of Holly Twp is as Republican as Livingston County (Rochester area less R, but still safe)

In 2002, Bishop ran for State Senate and won.  SD-15 at the time has much of the North Oakland part now in the 8th at the same period. The district has Addison Twp,  Clarkston, Independence Twp, Oakland Twp (now 8th, wasn't then), Orion Twp, Oxford Twp,  Rochester (now 8th, wasn't then) , and Rochester Hills (most now in 8th, wasn't then).  It also had Auburn Hills, Keego Harbor, Lake Angelus, Pontiac, and Sylvan Lake which is in other districts. He ran ahead of Posthumus  across the board, by major numbers outside of Pontiac. He ran slightly ahead of Mike Rogers (1-2%) in most of the district outside of Independence and Clarkston which was within 1%.

2006 was a bad year, but Bishop won easily, albeit with 56% instead of 62%. He ran well ahead of DeVos outside of Pontiac and Keego Harbor, and by 10%+ better in his home turf of Rochester/Rochester Hills. Like 2002, he ran slightly ahead of Rogers outside of Independence/Clarkston (less than 1% variation). Pontiac is a straight ticket graveyard without base areas outvoting it. Auburn Hills is tough territory. They don't matter in the 8th.
2012 was a little different. Bishop ran slightly ahead of Romney in the 8th District part of the district when going for prosecutor. He ran behind Rogers across the board outside of Rochester and Clarkston. That's due to Rogers facing Lance Enderle who was a sacrificial lamb. Bishop challenged a strong incumbent in Jessica Cooper (was a judge before prosecutor).  Not surprising, Bishop was much stronger in the Eastern part of Oakland County in the 8th district.  Here's a map, because it has probably the best comparisons. The red is where he ran ahead of Romney by over 2%. The  "dark salmon" is where he ran ahead by 0-2%. The light blue is where he ran behind by 0-2%. He didn't run behind Romney anywhere by a significant margin.

Bishop12 Romney

This is the only time where Bishop was held to what is slightly better than "generic R." Bishop got 59.92% in North Oakland compared to Romney's 58.35% (and Rogers 63.42%). Even so, he's still quite strong in Orion Twp, Oakland Twp, and the Rochester area. That's his base.

The last potential  candidate here is Joe Hune.  In 2002, Livingston County went big for Republicans overall.  Rogers was at his height in popularity, and also had a D- opponent.  Hune ran well behind Rogers in his first race - except in his home base of Handy Twp where he ran ahead of even Mike Rogers breaking 80% there.  Hune running 7% behind Mike Rogers isn't to be confused that with weakness. Hune won the general election with 68% to Rogers  75%. Both ran ahead of the top of the ticket by significant margins. Posthumus  got 61.28%, Hune 68.85%, and Rogers 75.85%. 

In 2004, Hune has his best year by percentage. He ran 9% ahead of Bush, and even ahead of Rogers, although by less than 1%. He ran strongly ahead of Bush everyone. The red is where he ran  ahead of Rogers by 2%. The black is where he ran ahead by 5% or more. The "dark salmon" is where he ran ahead 0-2%.  Light blue is where Rogers ran 0-2% ahead. The blue is where Rogers ran 3-5%+ Keep in mind that in his weaker areas, he still ran well ahead of Bush - and Bush won the district with 61.85%. Hune and Rogers  broke 70%.

Hune2004rogers

2006 was a rougher year. DeVos was held to 55.82% in the district. Hune had 61.56% and Rogers 62.15%. He didn't run ahead of Rogers this time, but here's the map with the same codes.

Hune2006rogers

2010 was a wave year and Rogers and Snyder both got over 71%. Hune ran behind them a bit for an open seat (ran almost even in his base area), but still got almost 68%. Rogers is originally from Brighton Township, so that factors into the difference with Rogers.  This is the first time Hune represented that part of the county. 

Again, the thing to remember is that Mike Rogers is generally the gold standard of Republican electoral performance in this district. In all except one race, Mike Bishop ran well ahead of the ticket. In all races, except the 2010 wave, Joe Hune ran well ahead of the ticket.  Neither of these two would drag down the ticket. This is not measuring "weakness", but extra strength needed to go into a congressional run in case of trouble against a democrat. 

If Hune, Bishop, Anuzis, Barnett, or someone else gets numbers ahead of the top of the ticket in a neutral or wave election, we'll be fine. If we have someone that underperforms, we're in trouble. 

The announcement about Rogers not running is two days ago, so there's a lot of behind the scenes rumors, measuring, jockeying, and organization going on right now. There is not a major window with the quick filing deadline. Expect some decisions to be made fast, and for a lot of people to get behind a candidate (or two) quickly so this person gets on the ballot. 


Let's hope for a good clean primary with minimum mudslinging, and hope the best candidate wins.

Friday, March 28, 2014

Mike Rogers retiring (MI-8)

This caught me offguard. I'll have more about the fallout later.

Thanks for the time you put in, Mike. Thank your staffers for putting up with my calls. Good luck in your new career.

From WHMI:

Rogers Will Not Seek Re-Election; Heading to Radio

News Photo 3/28/14 - Seven-term Republican Congressman Mike Rogers of Howell says he won't seek re-election. The chairman of the House Intelligence Committee announced his plans this morning and says he'll serve out the end of his term and plans to start a national radio program. In a statement released by his office today, Rogers said, “It has been an honor to serve the people of Michigan's eighth congressional district over the last 14 years. We have accomplished so much together, and I am most proud of our work to turn the House Intelligence Committee into a true legislative and oversight body. But I have always believed in our founder's idea of a citizen legislature. I had a career before politics and always planned to have one after. The genius of our institutions is they are not dependent on the individual temporary occupants privileged to serve. That is why I have decided not to seek re-election to Congress in 2014. As I close this chapter in my life, I am excited to begin a new one that allows me to continue serving as a voice for American exceptionalism and support a strong nation security policy agenda.” Rogers said he’ll start in January as a nationally syndicated radio show host at Cumulus Radio. The 50-year-old Rogers was elected to Michigan's 8th District in 2000, has been a frequent critic of the Obama Administration during many appearances on Sunday morning talk shows, although he was briefly floated as a potential CIA director nominee following Obama’s 2012 reelection victory. Rogers has also formed a good relationship with Congressman Dutch Ruppersberger of Maryland, the top Democrat on the Intelligence Committee. The pair have been staunch defenders of the controversial NSA surveillance programs disclosed by former contractor Edward Snowden. But Rogers and Ruppersberger also recently offered legislation ending NSA bulk collection program for phone calls and other agency reforms. The youngest of five sons, Rogers graduated from Adrian College in 1985, served as an officer in U.S. Army and then became an FBI agent before winning a seat in the Michigan Senate in 1995, rising to majority floor leader in 1999. He ran for the first of his seven terms in Congress the following year. (JK)

Sunday, March 23, 2014

Timothy Johnson - Where are we going to get the money?

In my district, HD-42, we have a democrat who has announced, Timothy Johnson.

From Brighton Patch and Judy Daubenmier

A teacher with nearly 20 years of experience in special education has announced that he will run for the Democratic nomination for the 42nd House seat in Livingston County.
Timothy Johnson said Friday he is planning to file his papers for the Democratic nomination with the Livingston County Clerk's office soon.
"The quality of life is no longer improving for 99 percent of the people in Michigan. A few powerful special interests are dictating state policy and private morality for the majority. I want to reverse those trends by speaking up for the rest of us," he said.

The most telling part of the article is this quote. Judy Daubenmier is the Chair for the Democrats, so I highly doubt she will misquote him.

The most critical issues facing the area, Johnson said, are more funding for public schools; increasing spending for Michigan infrastructure, including roads and bridges, and protecting the environment, especially greater regulation of fracking.
Where are we going to get the money?  It doesn't grow on trees. 

Also saw Tim's facebook page.. His views are well out of the mainstream of Michigan, including center-right Livingston County.  He is a self-described "Elizabeth Warren" democrat.

This guy is to the left of 99% of Livingston County.  He spent two years in my county and wants to change us to something leftist by any standard. No thanks. We don't need Wayne County politics here.

On his site, he mentions as reasons for running.

1. Tired of being told men rule. 

Folks, if you agree, we have someone who isn't a man running in the 42nd district. That's not Timothy Johnson.

2. Tired of being told white men rule. 

Wouldn't that include Timothy Johnson? We do have one candidate, arguable two depending on definition of what you consider "white" if that matters, who isn't running in the 42nd District. That's not Timothy Johnson.

3. Tired of being told old white men rule. 

I don't know how old Timothy Johnson is, but he looks older than at least two of our candidates. I'm not sure why "old" or "white" or "men" should matter in the first place, but he obviously think it's an issue.

While is talks about being an NRA member, he's like Michael Moore who claimed to be an NRA member, but he's still a gun grabber. He thinks he should be allowed to own guns, but not the "little people." The Second Amendment is not about hunting. He wants a "serious talk" on gun control, but it's been done election time time and time again. Even in anti-gun states, gun owners in Connecticut are breaking the law by not turning them in. Oh well.

He's pro-abortion. He supports a $15 minimum wage. He doesn't like Rush Limbaugh (that's fine) so he wants to shut him down. This guy can not handle disagreement. No wonder why he's a gun grabber (of other people's guns, not his of course. Typical Union Rep politician).

Luckily we have options. Three candidates are running on the Republican side, all of whom are much closer to mainstream Michigan including our own center-right Livingston County. In alphabetical order:

Nick Fiani

Dale Rogers

Lana Theis


Monday, March 17, 2014

Dumbass tweets make front page news

I don't know what's a bigger joke, and not in the funny sense - some stupid tweets from dumbass teenagers, or the fact that this made Mlive and the Argus due to some long dead New York City transplant who was dead before these teenagers were born. If this was black students railing against "crackers" in Detroit, it wouldn't make the news. If it was white students in Fenton, it might have made the news, but probably not. Because it's Howell, and the geographically ignorant white guilt media is who we thought they are, it's the news.

Unfortunately, this is distracted from what SHOULD be the story. Howell won a regional title in basketball winning over Grand Blanc 54-49. Good for them, and I say that as a Bulldog. The story is the race card. Again.
Hey Stoopid! All of you. The twits that posted that most of all, and also to only a slightly lesser extent, the media who made a story out of this, and most of all, those who are ignorant about reality in Livingston County.

From the Argus:


This weekend, a small, very small, yet toxic part of Livingston County history bubbled forth from the ignorant ooze from which it came.
It’s a drop, a small drop, but it once again casts aspersions on an entire community based on the ignorant assumptions of a tiny minority.
They came after Howell beat Grand Blanc in the regional basketball final on Thursday night, and they came on that platform where some people clearly relish their ignorance: Twitter.
Stuff about how Howell’s win was a win for white power. Stuff about proud racism.
Well, “stuff” is the word I use here. The real word rhymes with the first syllable of “Twitter.”
Because that’s what it is. Feel free to add “bull.”
The people who posted some of this stuff were Howell High School students. School officials told MLive.com that they would discipline those responsible, since it wasn’t that hard to figure out who did.

I agree that it was bullshit, so why make a story out of it?

Mlive

HOWELL, MI -- Shocking tweets celebrating a "white" team's victory erupted Thursday following the Howell boys basketball win over Grand Blanc.
Several students in Howell are now facing disciplinary action, according to the high school principal.
Grand Blanc lost 54-49 to Howell in the Class A regional final at Linden High School Thursday.
Among the Twitter messages posted after the game the night of March 13:
"Not only did we beat Grand Blanc but we're all white. Howell's the definite winner tonight."
"All hail white power. #HitlerIsMyDad"
"Tonight was probably one of the most racists nights of my life. I heard so many slurs and expressions. I also said a few things..."
Hastags with other tweets included  #kkk, #lightthehcross, #rosaparks, #wewhite.
Howell High School Principal Jason Schrock said he's well aware of the tweets, and disciplinary action has been taken against those involved.

This is the merging of shock value and sports fan culture (which frankly is a lot more harsh in Europe). Sports fan culture is harsh. The boo birds are tough. It shouldn't be as much in High School (although we all loved boos and getting ripped by other team fans), but I remember a few chants from students that I'm not going to repeat here. No, they weren't racial slurs, but it wasn't very nice. It was shock value. There's some lines that shouldn't be crossed, but they are. Teenagers in general do dumbass things. It's why they aren't adults. It's their nature, especially if they have been drinking. Most of them grow up, mature, and learn how to properly deal with people. The rest become politicians and media people. Those tweets obviously crossed the line. I shouldn't even have to say that, but I don't want the media to take these posts out of context. It is well known that racial crap is unacceptable in polite society, including our own Livingston County. That's why those tweets were sent out. It's going to obviously get a reaction. On that same note, the "World Wide Web" has the word "World" out there, and guess what. They aren't really anonymous.  Hey Stoopid!

In my three years I lived in Howell, I never heard any racial crap there. In my 35 years in Livingston County, I haven't heard it much since I grew up. Howell, Brighton, or the townships. It's viewed as unacceptable for obvious reasons. I've heard it on very rare occasions. I won't say never, but I haven't heard any in two years in this county, even down to the comment level. The last I heard here was in Green Oak by someone who lived in Farmington Hills, not a place which gets suspected of this stuff. Does that speak for Farmington Hills or Green Oak? No. It speaks for the dumbass who said it. No more. No less. The most recent racial crap I heard not on TV was in Lansing from white union democrat goons who ripped town the AFP tent and trashed the hot dog cart of a friend of mine. That's a lot worse than some dumbass twits, I mean tweets.

It's said that those students are going to be reprimanded. If I was dad, I'd be sending them up to Flint for some community service and an education as I wouldn't be accepting of that stuff who would be embarrassing with my last name. In house, no media involvement. I'd also be teaching about the first word in World Wide Web. World.

I fully expect the tweeters to grow up and realize that what is posted online matters. I don't expect the "waving the bloody shirt" media to do the same.










Tuesday, March 11, 2014

SEIU fined $200,000

They join Mark Schauer in bad company.



From the Secretary of State office

SEIU to pay almost $200,000 fine - the second-largest in Michigan - as part of campaign finance complaint settlement

MARCH 10, 2014Election News
LANSING, Mich. – In what is the second-largest fine of its kind, the Service Employees International Union will pay $199,000 in penalties after the Michigan Department of State found there may have been campaign finance violations, Secretary of State Ruth Johnson announced today.
The penalties are part of a conciliation agreement reached by the department with Citizens for Affordable Quality Home Care and Home Care First, Inc., related to a 2012 ballot question to amend the state Constitution. Violations included commingling of funds; late filings; not identifying all accounts used; and not providing complete or accurate campaign statements. When combined with late filing fees already paid, they will have paid more than $205,000 in fines.
"Michigan law requires all organizations, including 501(c)4 nonprofit corporations, to file complete campaign finance reports when spending directly in support of a ballot question," Johnson said. "These organizations cannot be used as a means to conceal the identity of the true contributors. This agreement reflects our commitment to transparency and accountability in the campaign finance process, especially in an election year."
A complaint was originally filed in August of 2013, alleging that Home Care First filed its committee's statement of organization late to delay publicly reporting that SEIU contributions were the main source of support for the home health care ballot question.
Additional information, including the original complaint, is available on the MDOS website.

It's not about the tea party or establishment but candidate quality

A national consultant sounded like a national consultant today in the Argus. He is right about 50% but he lays the blame on one side only. He's an NRA guy so he's not all bad. However, a lot of consultants (not all) like to blame everybody but themselves for the problems in the campaigns so they build themselves up.

“When conservatives are unhappy, bad things happen to the Republican Party.”
So wrote Richard Viguerie, the “Funding Father” of the modern conservative movement, in his 2006 book “Conservatives Betrayed.” Viguerie characterized the conservative movement as an independent “Third Force” in American politics, one that will bring the Republican Party to its knees “begging for support.” Then, George W. Bush was the enemy. Now, it’s “impure” incumbent Republican senators.
The modern conservative movement and the Republican Party have never been synonymous. But the animosity between the two has never been more self-destructive than it is today.
Many conservatives see the Republican Party as little more than “the evil of two lessers.” Couple that with their belief that pragmatism is a dirty word, and it’s little wonder that liberal and progressive leaders give thanks at the altar of the “tea party” while simultaneously crediting the movement for every problem facing our society. The irony seems lost on conservative leaders who should know better.

The thing about Republicans is that it is a big tent. Democrats do what their told. Republicans are anti-authoritarian, and not just the libertarians, business owners, and gun owners. Less government is the general core belief of the group.

"""For more than 30 years as a political consultant, I’ve helped elect Republicans to offices at all levels and enthusiastically advanced the cause of many national groups espousing conservative issues. Smaller government, lower taxes, fewer regulations, and greater individual freedom — all these tenets sound like the battle cry for the “tea party” when in fact they’ve stood as the modern Republican Party creed for decades. What has changed over the past several years is the assertion that if you aren’t 100 percent pure on the entire conservative agenda, you must be removed from office. Never mind that if you defeat an “impure” conservative or, heaven forbid, a moderate Republican, what you get in return is a liberal or progressive Democrat.""""

Devil's advocate. Sometimes I agree with this, but other times I don't. What if the so called "Moderate" is a Arlen Specter, Joe Schwarz, Charlie Crist, or John Stewart who are really democrats. Stewart admitted he never voted Republican for president after he switched parties officially. Schwarz backed Mark Schauer. A leftist. Specter switched because the base had enough of him (and so did the dems). Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins are liberal republicans. I think Collins is great to have in Maine. That's the best we're going to get there. Plymouth didn't need a John Stewart type but a John Walsh instead. The 7th district voted for Tim Walberg over Joe Schwarz. Take the best you can get where you can win.

""Today, Harry Reid is the majority leader in the U.S. Senate for one simple reason: The “tea party.” It snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in the 2012 elections by putting forth unvetted primary candidates who defeated incumbent Republicans who undoubtedly would have triumphed in the general election."""
Bullshit. I don't consider myself tea party, and still call this as bullshit. Tom, you lose your argument here. Both sides fouled up. These were election results. I'll put notable ones in bold.

In 2012, these were the results:
Arizona - Jeff Flake (center-right, some libertarian leanings) replaces Jon Kyl. - R hold
California - Feinstein wins again
Connecticut - Chris Murphy replaces Joe Lieberman. D hold. Linda McMahon was an establishment R running in a tough seat.
Delaware - Tom Carper wins again
Florida - Bill Nelson wins easily. Connie Mack was supposed to be a contender, but struck out badly. Establishment failure here. 
Hawaii - Hirono replaces Akaka. D hold.
Indiana - Gun grabber Richard Lugar loses the primary. Good. Bad however was Richard Mordouk running his mouth. Joe Donnelly won and this was a D pickup. Tea Party failure here.
Maine - Olympia Snowe retired. Angus King wins. Democrat pick up. (King's an independent, but caucuses with dems).
Maryland - Ben Cardin wins again.
Massachusetts - Scott Brown loses to Elizabeth Warren. D pickup. Straight tickets won.
Michigan - Stabenow wins easily over Pete Hoekstra. Establishment failure here. It should have been closer and Durant would have given a much better race than the (nonexistent) campaign we saw.
Minnesota - Klobuchar wins easily.
Mississippi - Wicker wins.
Missouri - Claire McCaskill hangs on. Todd Akin loses what would have been a win for his mouth. Establishment (Huckabee wing) failure here. Akin wasn't tea party. Tea party was split in the primary.  D hold.
Montana - Jon Tester hangs on against Denny Rehberg. Wasn't tea party. D hold.
Nevada - Dean Heller hangs on against Shelly Berkley. Establishment win. R hold.
New Jersey - Bob Menendez hangs on despite his issues.
New Mexico - Martin Henrich takes over for Jeff Bingaman. D hold.  Tough year there.
New York - Gillibrand wins.
North Dakota - Heidi Heitkamp upsets Rick Berg. D hold. This wasn't tea party either.
Ohio - Brown beats Josh Mandel. D Hold. This wasn't tea party either.
Pennsylvania - Maybe Tom Smith should have had more help against Bob Casey who didn't win by a margin that was expected.
Rhode Island - Whitehouse wins
Tennessee - Corker wins
Texas - Ted Cruz wins
Utah - Orrin Hatch wins
Vermont - Bernie Sanders wins
Virginia - Tim Caine beats George Allen for Jim Webb's seat. D hold. Establishment loss here.
Washington - Cantwell wins
West Virginia - Manchin wins

Wisconsin - Baldwin beats former Governor Tommy Thompson. I heard Thompson ran a very poor campaign. Establishment failure here.
Wyoming - Barrasso wins.

Tom, you can pin ONE here on the tea party. In 2010, you can pin Christine O'Donnell and Sharron Angle there - along with Pat Toomey, Ron Johnson and Marco Rubio's wins.

What was proven here. Tea party candidates can win. Tea party candidates can lose. Same goes for establishment candidates. Dean Heller deserves a lot of credit for his win. It wasn't easy. I'm not trying to pick on one side over another. Like Tom, I'm tired of self-enforced errors in the party. Unlike Tom, I see the big picture.

Instead of these pot sides at "establishment" or "Tea Party," both sides need to recruit candidates who can actually win. That means avoiding foot-in-mouth disease, laziness, and consultant backstabbing by announcing to the world that this person is going to lose because your favorite lost the primary (Rove).