Republican Michigander

Canadian Oil now going to go to the Chinese

2012-01-29T12:12:00.000-05:00

Here, several hundred people gathered for hearings on whether a pipeline should be laid from the Alberta oil sands to the Pacific in order to deliver oil to Asia, chiefly energy-hungry China. The stakes are particularly high for the village of Kitamaat and its neighbors, because the pipeline would terminate here and a port would be built to handle 220 tankers a year and 525,000 barrels of oil a day.

But the planned Northern Gateway Pipeline is just one aspect of an epic battle over Canada's oil ambitions — a battle that already has a supporting role in the U.S. presidential election, and which will help to shape North America's future energy relationship with China.

Thanks to Obama's buddies in global warming cult, oil from our allies next door may be going to China. This puts puts more of our own oil to be imported from folks that don't like us very much. Hugo Chavez, Saudi Arabia. This may be Obama's worst act of all as Chief Executive. I don't blame Canada for this. Obama told them to eff off. They need to look out for their own best interests and if the US doesn't want their oil, someone would take it. This is NO good reason for denying the pipeline. NONE. There are plenty of good reasons to support the permit. Jobs. More energy here. Pipeline going through one of our newest and biggest energy fields in North Dakota.

"But what about global warming."

Besides the fact that any 125 (at most) year study is beyond worthless (due to length) at judging long term planet climate which has changed several times in the past billions of years, the fact is that energy will be used. If it isn't used by us, someone will use it.

Obama needs to reverse course on this traitorous decision ASAP.

State House Redistricting - District 69 (HD-69)

2012-01-28T18:49:00.000-05:00

State House - District 69
Current Rep - Mark Meadows (D-East Lansing) - Termed out

Old District (69th)
Mark Meadows - 16,782
Susan McGillicuddy - 10452

This district covered East Lansing, Okemos, and Williamstown Twp has been democrat for years. This district picks up Locke Twp but otherwise stays the same. It was Lynn Jondahl's district for about 20 years, then succeeded by Laura Baird, Gretchen Whitmer, and now Mark Meadows. It was supposedly competitive in 1998 and 2000, but I don't think it was that winnable even before East Lansing and next door Meridian Twp (Okemos/Haslett) got even bluer than it was. Meridian Twp is no longer competitive, and Williamstown Twp is now competitive. Government Workers and MSU dominate this district, and it's safe and will continue to be so for the dems barring surprises.

	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
East Lansing	5376	17179	22555	-11803	23.84%	76.16%	-52.33%
Locke Twp	549	471	1020	78	53.82%	46.18%	7.65%
Meridian Twp	8080	14288	22368	-6208	36.12%	63.88%	-27.75%
Williamstown Twp	1582	1653	3235	-71	48.90%	51.10%	-2.19%
Total	15587	33591	49178	-18004	31.70%	68.30%	-36.61%

	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
East Lansing	5119	12647	17766	-7528	28.81%	71.19%	-42.37%
Locke Twp	657	361	1018	296	64.54%	35.46%	29.08%
Meridian Twp	9589	12378	21967	-2789	43.65%	56.35%	-12.70%
Williamstown Twp	1824	1373	3197	451	57.05%	42.95%	14.11%
Total	17189	26759	43948	-9570	39.11%	60.89%	-21.78%

Last St House	GOP	Dem	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
East Lansing	2475	6566	9041	-4091	27.38%	72.62%	-45.25%
Locke Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Meridian Twp	6612	8992	15604	-2380	42.37%	57.63%	-15.25%
Williamstown Twp	1365	1224	2589	141	52.72%	47.28%	5.45%
Total	10452	16782	27234	-6330	38.38%	61.62%	-23.24%

State House Redistricting - District 68 (HD-68)

2012-01-28T18:39:00.000-05:00

State House - District 68
Current Rep - Joan Bauer (D-Lansing) - Termed Out

Old District (68th)
Joan Bauer - 22,833
Harilaos Sorovigas - 6,075

This district expands some to take more of Lansing. It picks up parts of SW Lansing making this district even more Democrat. It still covers most of Lansing and Lansing Township and is safe for the democrats due to unions, MSU on the east, government workers, and minorities. It was a 74.7% Obama district and usually runs about 2/3 dem at the top of the ticket.

State House Redistricting - District 67 (HD-67)

2012-01-28T18:30:00.001-05:00

State House - District 67
Current Rep - Barb Byrum (D-Onondaga Twp) - Termed out

Old District (67th)
Barb Byrum - 17,823
Jeff Osterle - 15,962

This district was possibly the most frustrating district for the GOP in the state. It was created as a close to 50/50 district to give the GOP as shot. We thought we had it in 2002. Then Dianne Byrum who runs well in rural areas, dropped from state senate to state rep. Barb, her daughter, took her place. There's small subtle changes to this district.

It covers all of Southern Ingham County. It drops Locke Township to the 69th district. More importantly, it takes a bit of South Central Lansing and drops Southwest Lansing, which is what made the difference for Byrum last election. Byrum took Lansing by 3100 votes, and SW Lansing is more heavily minority.

This was a 56% Obama district according to Dave's Redistricting app. I believe the old district went for Bush once and Gore. It was extremely close.

The GOP has a shot here in 08, but even without a Byrum running, it won't be easy. South Lansing is extremely democrat and will be a base for the dems. It doesn't have all of it, but still has enough to cause problems. Delhi Township, better known as Holt, isn't easy either, nor is Mason or Leslie. Those areas are keys and must wins to have a good shot at this. They are swing areas. Osterle split those areas against Byrum.

With the state house expected to be a big battleground, this district will be one of the most contested seats, especially as an open seat. It's improved some, but still won't be easy. I won't be surprised if either side wins it.

State House Redistricting - District 66 (HD-66)

2012-01-28T18:11:00.000-05:00

State House - District 66
Current Rep - Aric Nesbitt (R-Antwerp Twp)

Old District (80th)
Aric Nesbitt - 15,492
Thomas Erdmann - 7,850

The old 66th Bill Rogers district where I live is now mostly the 42nd District. Most of the new 66th district is the old 80th district with a few minor changes. The old and new district covers all of Van Buren County. The old district had parts of Allegan County (Otsego/Plainwell). The new district takes in Cooper and Alamo Townships in Kalamazoo County instead. That doesn't change much partisan wise. On paper, this is a swing district. On paper being the key as the GOP has held this for a long time, even in bad years. Covert and South Haven make this seat potentially difficult in any year. None of Van Buren County is that strongly Republican, unlike most of SW Michigan. A lot of the area is slightly leaning, but there are only two areas that went 60% for Bush. Covert Township is the big base for the democrats by percentage due to minorities, but there aren't many people there.

	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Van Buren County	15534	18588	34122	-3054	45.52%	54.48%	-8.95%
Kalamazoo County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Alamo Twp	1198	1049	2247	149	53.32%	46.68%	6.63%
Cooper Twp	2635	2873	5508	-238	47.84%	52.16%	-4.32%
Total	19367	22510	41877	-3143	46.25%	53.75%	-7.51%

	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Van Buren County	17634	16151	33785	1483	52.19%	47.81%	4.39%
Kalamazoo County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Alamo Twp	1288	918	2206	370	58.39%	41.61%	16.77%
Cooper Twp	2825	2462	5287	363	53.43%	46.57%	6.87%
Total	21747	19531	41278	2216	52.68%	47.32%	5.37%

Last St House	GOP	Dem	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Van Buren County	13508	6805	20313	6703	66.50%	33.50%	33.00%
Kalamazoo County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Alamo Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Cooper Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	13508	6805	20313	6703	66.50%	33.50%	33.00%

State House Redistricting - District 65 (HD-65)

2012-01-28T17:50:00.001-05:00

State House - District 65
Current Rep - Mike Shirkey (R-Columbia Twp?)

Old District (65th)
Mike Shirkey - 17,889
Janet D Rochefort - 10,405

Don't let the 2010 results fool you. This district in the heart of old free soil country flipped twice in the last decade. The district mirrors the old district with the exception of Eaton Township as new territory. It was an Obama district, but now a McCain one by 117 votes. The late Mike Simpson won with a much bigger margin than that for the dems when he was the rep. He was an exceptional candidate for the district which was held by a Republican before and after Simpson. If the dems find another Simpson type of candidate, they have a good chance. This is a populist person over party district I'm well familiar with. I expect a tough challenge here, like in the 64th district. Here, there are no strong anchors for the democrats outside arguably Leoni and Waterloo Townships. However if they do well in Leoni, Blackman, Hamlim, Waterloo, and Eaton Rapids, they have a good roadmap to win. Republican need to win at least one or preferably two of those to have a good chance to win, but they have more room for error with most of the other small rural areas theirs to lose.

On paper, this district leans Republican. In reality, I'd call it a very slight lean at best as Simpson proved it can be won. Don't take this one lightly. The folks here don't care much for politicians in general.

	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Eaton County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Brookfield Twp	414	356	770	58	53.77%	46.23%	7.53%
Eaton Rapids	1024	1257	2281	-233	44.89%	55.11%	-10.21%
Eaton Township	1228	1090	2318	138	52.98%	47.02%	5.95%
Hamlin Twp	835	909	1744	-74	47.88%	52.12%	-4.24%
Jackson County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Blackman Twp	3646	4204	7850	-558	46.45%	53.55%	-7.11%
Columbia Twp	2265	2011	4276	254	52.97%	47.03%	5.94%
Grass Lake Twp	1659	1430	3089	229	53.71%	46.29%	7.41%
Henrietta Twp	1161	1153	2314	8	50.17%	49.83%	0.35%
Leoni Twp	2930	3387	6317	-457	46.38%	53.62%	-7.23%
Liberty Twp	1015	713	1728	302	58.74%	41.26%	17.48%
Norvell Twp	887	815	1702	72	52.12%	47.88%	4.23%
Rives Twp	1317	1005	2322	312	56.72%	43.28%	13.44%
Springport Twp	551	425	976	126	56.45%	43.55%	12.91%
Tompkins Twp	710	631	1341	79	52.95%	47.05%	5.89%
Waterloo Twp	650	787	1437	-137	45.23%	54.77%	-9.53%
Cambridge (Lenawee)	1636	1638	3274	-2	49.97%	50.03%	-0.06%
Total	21928	21811	43739	117	50.13%	49.87%	0.27%

	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Eaton County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Brookfield Twp	427	268	695	159	61.44%	38.56%	22.88%
Eaton Rapids	1213	1053	2266	160	53.53%	46.47%	7.06%
Eaton Township	1455	868	2323	587	62.63%	37.37%	25.27%
Hamlin Twp	925	694	1619	231	57.13%	42.87%	14.27%
Jackson County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Blackman Twp	4258	3454	7712	804	55.21%	44.79%	10.43%
Columbia Twp	2532	1693	4225	839	59.93%	40.07%	19.86%
Grass Lake Twp	1684	1132	2816	552	59.80%	40.20%	19.60%
Henrietta Twp	1196	952	2148	244	55.68%	44.32%	11.36%
Leoni Twp	3216	2971	6187	245	51.98%	48.02%	3.96%
Liberty Twp	1106	610	1716	496	64.45%	35.55%	28.90%
Norvell Twp	962	774	1736	188	55.41%	44.59%	10.83%
Rives Twp	1464	809	2273	655	64.41%	35.59%	28.82%
Springport Twp	577	332	909	245	63.48%	36.52%	26.95%
Tompkins Twp	772	537	1309	235	58.98%	41.02%	17.95%
Waterloo Twp	771	701	1472	70	52.38%	47.62%	4.76%
Cambridge (Lenawee)	1813	1404	3217	409	56.36%	43.64%	12.71%
Total	24371	18252	42623	6119	57.18%	42.82%	14.36%

Last St House	GOP	DEM	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Eaton County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Brookfield Twp	344	195	539	149	63.82%	36.18%	27.64%
Eaton Rapids	943	573	1516	370	62.20%	37.80%	24.41%
Eaton Township			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Hamlin Twp	790	491	1281	299	61.67%	38.33%	23.34%
Jackson County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Blackman Twp	2988	1919	4907	1069	60.89%	39.11%	21.79%
Columbia Twp	2084	1021	3105	1063	67.12%	32.88%	34.24%
Grass Lake Twp	1507	749	2256	758	66.80%	33.20%	33.60%
Henrietta Twp	923	628	1551	295	59.51%	40.49%	19.02%
Leoni Twp	2452	1731	4183	721	58.62%	41.38%	17.24%
Liberty Twp	898	355	1253	543	71.67%	28.33%	43.34%
Norvell Twp	784	432	1216	352	64.47%	35.53%	28.95%
Rives Twp	1118	505	1623	613	68.88%	31.12%	37.77%
Springport Twp	429	176	605	253	70.91%	29.09%	41.82%
Tompkins Twp	600	378	978	222	61.35%	38.65%	22.70%
Waterloo Twp	529	408	937	121	56.46%	43.54%	12.91%
Cambridge (Lenawee)	1500	844	2344	656	63.99%	36.01%	27.99%
Total	17889	10405	28294	7484	63.23%	36.77%	26.45%

State House Redistricting - District 64 (HD-64)

2012-01-28T17:14:00.001-05:00

State House - District 64
Current Rep - Earl Poleski (R-Jackson)

Old District (64th)
Earl Poleski - 15,649
Martin Griffin - 10,777

Jackson County has been ground zero for control of Michigan's legislature the past 10 years. Both districts here have flipped and aren't really safe, although they should lean our way. Martin Griffin was an incumbent who helped us by putting himself in trouble a bit. I believe his dad represented the district a long time before term limits. The republicans held this district for awhile. Martin Griffin beat an incumbent in a rematch. Griffin lost in 2010 to Earl Poleski who will have a tough test in 2012.

The old district covered Concord Twp, Hanover Twp, Jackson, Napoleon Twp, Parma Twp, Pulaski Twp, Sandstone Twp, Spring Arbor Twp, and Summit Twp. The new district is exactly the same as the old district. The big keys here are two things. How well each candidate does in the base areas with turnout. How well the candidate makes inroads in the base areas of the other. Griffin did well in Republican Summit Township as well as his base area of Jackson when he won. Poleski won big in Summit Township and Spring Arbor, the big base areas for the GOP. He held the dems to under 60% in Jackson. Jackson is heavily democrat, but it's not Albion or Kalamazoo in its leaning. Mostly white union populists with a sizable, but not overwhelmingly minority area that would put this district out of reach.

Bush won the district twice. Obama won it in 08. It's winnable for either party and I expect it to be a target in 2010.

	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Concord Twp	758	633	1391	125	54.49%	45.51%	8.99%
Hanover Twp	1096	843	1939	253	56.52%	43.48%	13.05%
Jackson	4162	8856	13018	-4694	31.97%	68.03%	-36.06%
Napoleon Twp	1733	1712	3445	21	50.30%	49.70%	0.61%
Parma Twp	629	618	1247	11	50.44%	49.56%	0.88%
Pulaski Twp	579	405	984	174	58.84%	41.16%	17.68%
Sandstone Twp	1203	782	1985	421	60.60%	39.40%	21.21%
Spring Arbor Twp	2460	1418	3878	1042	63.43%	36.57%	26.87%
Summit Twp	6281	5652	11933	629	52.64%	47.36%	5.27%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	18901	20919	39820	-2018	47.47%	52.53%	-5.07%

	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Concord Twp	843	483	1326	360	63.57%	36.43%	27.15%
Hanover Twp	1199	745	1944	454	61.68%	38.32%	23.35%
Jackson	5257	7142	12399	-1885	42.40%	57.60%	-15.20%
Napoleon Twp	1893	1494	3387	399	55.89%	44.11%	11.78%
Parma Twp	714	523	1237	191	57.72%	42.28%	15.44%
Pulaski Twp	635	363	998	272	63.63%	36.37%	27.25%
Sandstone Twp	1293	636	1929	657	67.03%	32.97%	34.06%
Spring Arbor Twp	2763	1105	3868	1658	71.43%	28.57%	42.86%
Summit Twp	6894	4579	11473	2315	60.09%	39.91%	20.18%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	21491	17070	38561	4421	55.73%	44.27%	11.46%

Last St House	GOP	DEM	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Concord Twp	637	293	930	344	68.49%	31.51%	36.99%
Hanover Twp	948	431	1379	517	68.75%	31.25%	37.49%
Jackson	3108	4389	7497	-1281	41.46%	58.54%	-17.09%
Napoleon Twp	1426	910	2336	516	61.04%	38.96%	22.09%
Parma Twp	548	331	879	217	62.34%	37.66%	24.69%
Pulaski Twp	452	194	646	258	69.97%	30.03%	39.94%
Sandstone Twp	1035	414	1449	621	71.43%	28.57%	42.86%
Spring Arbor Twp	2126	674	2800	1452	75.93%	24.07%	51.86%
Summit Twp	5369	3141	8510	2228	63.09%	36.91%	26.18%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	15649	10777	26426	4872	59.22%	40.78%	18.44%

State House Redistricting - District 63 (HD-63)

2012-01-28T16:51:00.000-05:00

State House - District 63
Current Rep - Jace Bolger (R-Marshall)

Old District (63rd)
Jace Bolger - 20,135
Dave Morgan - 12,408

This district got safe at the cost of conceding for probably 10 years the Battle Creek/Albion district (HD-62). Bolger never had any problems, but probably thought himself a target as he's Speaker. The only real bad spot in this district was adding one small part of Kalamazoo Twp and to a lesser extent Comstock Twp. It's still a 50% McCain district, which shouldn't be a problem anywhere west of Jackson County unless you have a poor candidate.

The new district includes all of Southern Calhoun County outside of Albion Twp. It also includes Marshall, Emmett Twp, and Margengo Twp in Calhoun County. It also has all of the eastern half of Kalamazoo County, as well as a small part of Kalamazoo Twp.

Bolger should have no problem getting a third term unless he blunders badly. The open seat will lean GOP.

State House Redistricting - District 62 (HD-62)

2012-01-21T15:11:00.000-05:00

State House - District 62
Current Rep - Kate Segal (D-Battle Creek)

Old District (62nd)
Kate Segal - 14,188
Steven Mobley - 11,719

This district is entirely in Calhoun County. I don't like this district at all. They all but conceded a district to make Bolger more safe than he already is. The old district leaned democrat, but was won by Mike Nofs three times. The new district is even more democrat.

The old district covered Albion, Athens, 90%+ of Battle Creek, a small part of Bedford Twp, Burlington Twp, Clarence Twp, Clarendon Twp, Convis Twp, Eckford Twp, Fredonia Twp, Homer Twp, Lee Twp, Leroy Twp, Marengo Twp, Sheridan Twp, Sprinfield, and Tekonska Twp. The new district drops most of this and covers all of Battle Creek, Springfield, Bedford Twp, Pennfield Twp, Convis Twp, Lee Twp, Clarence Twp, Sheridan Twp, and Albion. Keeping Albion, Springfield, and Battle Creek together is tough. Adding Bedford Twp makes it worse. Pennfield is the only good addition, but it's only good if Albion's removed. Did I mention that I don't like this district at all? John Kerry lost Calhoun County. John Kerry won this district.

Even the old district leaned slightly democrat. Mark Schauer held the old district before Mike Nofs took the open seat (and Schauer the State Senate seat). Kate Segal took the open seat after Nofs ran for State Senate when Schauer ran for congress and won, before losing the rematch. Segal survived 2010 as an incumbent and I belive has one term left.

I would have split Albion and Battle Creek if possible. That would make this much easier.

	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Albion	719	2584	3303	-1865	21.77%	78.23%	-56.46%
Albion Twp	301	283	584	18	51.54%	48.46%	3.08%
Battle Creek	8916	13975	22891	-5059	38.95%	61.05%	-22.10%
Bedford Twp	2128	2583	4711	-455	45.17%	54.83%	-9.66%
Clarence Twp	574	439	1013	135	56.66%	43.34%	13.33%
Convis Twp	439	357	796	82	55.15%	44.85%	10.30%
Lee Twp	300	220	520	80	57.69%	42.31%	15.38%
Pennfield Twp	2405	2218	4623	187	52.02%	47.98%	4.04%
Sheridan Twp	412	390	802	22	51.37%	48.63%	2.74%
Springfield	689	1132	1821	-443	37.84%	62.16%	-24.33%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	16883	24181	41064	-7298	41.11%	58.89%	-17.77%

	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Albion	896	2174	3070	-1278	29.19%	70.81%	-41.63%
Albion Twp	336	265	601	71	55.91%	44.09%	11.81%
Battle Creek	10314	11583	21897	-1269	47.10%	52.90%	-5.80%
Bedford Twp	2262	2264	4526	-2	49.98%	50.02%	-0.04%
Clarence Twp	640	376	1016	264	62.99%	37.01%	25.98%
Convis Twp	500	355	855	145	58.48%	41.52%	16.96%
Lee Twp	339	214	553	125	61.30%	38.70%	22.60%
Pennfield Twp	2680	1969	4649	711	57.65%	42.35%	15.29%
Sheridan Twp	428	394	822	34	52.07%	47.93%	4.14%
Springfield	877	1005	1882	-128	46.60%	53.40%	-6.80%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	19272	20599	39871	-1327	48.34%	51.66%	-3.33%

Last St House	GOP	DEM	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Albion	463	1623	2086	-1160	22.20%	77.80%	-55.61%
Albion Twp	197	226	423	-29	46.57%	53.43%	-6.86%
Battle Creek	5633	8174	13807	-2541	40.80%	59.20%	-18.40%
Bedford Twp	18	10	28	8	64.29%	35.71%	28.57%
Clarence Twp	424	306	730	118	58.08%	41.92%	16.16%
Convis Twp	302	239	541	63	55.82%	44.18%	11.65%
Lee Twp	223	123	346	100	64.45%	35.55%	28.90%
Pennfield Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Sheridan Twp	269	283	552	-14	48.73%	51.27%	-2.54%
Springfield	399	563	962	-164	41.48%	58.52%	-17.05%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	7928	11547	19475	-3619	40.71%	59.29%	-18.58%

State House Redistricting - District 61 (HD-61)

2012-01-21T14:44:00.001-05:00

State House - District 61
Current Rep - Margaret O'Brien (R-Portage)

Old District (61th)
Margaret O'Brien - 21,919
Thomas Batten - 13,671

This district is close on paper, but has been in the "good enough to lose" category for the democrats, much like the Alpena and West Branch seats were until recently. Jack Hoogendyk held this seat for three terms followed by Larry DeShazor's narrow win and now Margaret O'Brien who won easily.

The old district covered Alamo, part of Kalamazoo Twp, Oshtemo Twp, Parchment, Portage, Prairie Ronde Twp, and Texas Twp. The new district drops Kalamazoo Twp, Parchment, and Alamo Twp and adds Schoolcraft Twp. Alamo Twp went for McCain and Bush, Kalamazoo Twp went dem twice. Parchment went for Bush and Obama. Kalamazoo Twp is the biggest part that was dropped, so slight GOP advantage, although losing Alamo Twp hurt. Adding Schoolcraft Twp helped some.

On paper, this is a bit of a swing district. Off paper, it's elected Jack Hoogendyk three times. Jack's quite conservative, and outspokenly so. Oshtemo Twp leans democrat with WMU, but O'Brien won it. Portage is close at the top of the ticket, but is more GOP downticket. Portage is about 1/2 of the district. Texas Twp is the main GOP base. This is a district to keep an eye on as it's no stranger to tough elections, but it hasn't flipped even in two rough years (06/08).

	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Oshtemo Twp	4414	6565	10979	-2151	40.20%	59.80%	-19.59%
Portage	11448	14049	25497	-2601	44.90%	55.10%	-10.20%
Prairie Ronde Twp	770	538	1308	232	58.87%	41.13%	17.74%
Schoolcraft Twp	2164	2071	4235	93	51.10%	48.90%	2.20%
Texas Twp	4469	3864	8333	605	53.63%	46.37%	7.26%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	23265	27087	50352	-3822	46.20%	53.80%	-7.59%

	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Oshtemo Twp	4703	4850	9553	-147	49.23%	50.77%	-1.54%
Portage	13115	11597	24712	1518	53.07%	46.93%	6.14%
Prairie Ronde Twp	848	456	1304	392	65.03%	34.97%	30.06%
Schoolcraft Twp	2288	1652	3940	636	58.07%	41.93%	16.14%
Texas Twp	4509	2919	7428	1590	60.70%	39.30%	21.41%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	25463	21474	46937	3989	54.25%	45.75%	8.50%

Last State House	GOP	DEM	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Oshtemo Twp	3712	2827	6539	885	56.77%	43.23%	13.53%
Portage	10077	5847	15924	4230	63.28%	36.72%	26.56%
Prairie Ronde Twp	661	274	935	387	70.70%	29.30%	41.39%
Schoolcraft Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Texas Twp	3903	1711	5614	2192	69.52%	30.48%	39.05%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	18353	10659	29012	7694	63.26%	36.74%	26.52%

Brenda Lawrence running in MI-14

2012-01-20T20:44:00.000-05:00

The primary in the 14th just got a major shake-up. I'm not surprised at this, but it's still big. I think Conyers switched districts because he wants no part of a one on one vs Lawrence.

Southfield Mayor Brenda Lawrence said today that she plans to run for Congress in a district that already features a race with two incumbent Congressmen.

She will formally announce her intentions on Feb. 1, Lawrence said, but she’s also been telling people in the district for months that she plans on running.

I happen to appreciate this comment by Lawrence a bit. That hits a little at Clarke (although he did represent Detroit's East Side) and hits a lot at Peters. I think Peters will be a non-factor outside of maybe West Bloomfield. He's just a yesman and a toady who carpetbagged. Clarke and Lawrence as far as I know don't have the same animosity towards them from whitey as Conyers does.

“It’s a district I live in and while that may not mean something to others, it does mean something to me,” Lawrence said.

Using Dave's redistricting website, the approximate numbers are 337,000 in Detroit, 309,000 in Oakland County, and 82,000 in Wayne County outside of Detroit (Hamtramck, Grosse Pointes, Harper Woods). The Detroit Part was 86% black and 97% for Obama. If they vote in a primary, we know which side it will be. Dems. Will they vote for Clarke? He's known more on the East Side, but what about West Side Detroiters. Southfield is right next door. City or
proximity. The 82,000 in Wayne County outside of Detroit is more competitive. If there is local partisan primaries, some of them may vote there, although I think there will be crossovers because the Grosse Pointe state rep districts are now split. The Oakland County portion is 48% White and about 40% Black. It went 75% for Obama, while extremely high, significantly less than Detroit. Southfield, Farmington Hills, and Oak Park will probably vote heavily for her with geography, but will Pontiac further North? Pontiac is a different community than the other three areas (or at least much of Southfield and Oak Park). Will they be open to Clarke or even Peters.

This will be an interesting August in many districts, and this is going to be one of them. We have competitive primaries so far in the 5th, 6th, 13th, and 14th. There might be more. We'll find out for sure in May at the filing deadline.

Why I'm pro-life

2012-01-20T15:02:00.000-05:00

From the AP

Melinda Star Guido weighed only 9 ½ ounces at birth- less than a can of soda. After spending her early months in the neonatal intensive care unit, a team of doctors and nurses will gather Friday to see her off.

Melinda has been growing steadily and gaining weight since she was born premature at 24 weeks in August at the Los Angeles County-USC Medical Center. She is the world's third smallest baby and the second smallest in the U.S.

Now weighing 4½ pounds, doctors said Melinda has made enough progress to be discharged. It's too early to know how she will fare developmentally and physically, but doctors planned to monitor her for the next six years.

Born at 24 weeks and survived. That has me beat and I was born almost three months early.

Perry drops out

2012-01-19T20:11:00.000-05:00

It's too bad that verbal gaffes and style count more than actual records these days. I originally supported Perry because of his record. I was rethinking due to his implosion, but was going full circle back there with my leanings again after Obama just screwed over this country once again to please his base of global warming nutters. He said no to the pipeline. Gas is around $3.50. Obama wants it $5.00. Send the oil from our Canadian allies to China instead. Good job. Really.

Perry was a better governor than he was a presidential campaigner. Perry wasn't a bad governor. He's experienced, and most importantly did not screw up the Texas economy like Granholm did here in Michigan. He also understood domestic energy and its importance. Perry's endorsed Newt. With Perry and Huntsman gone, it's down to Romney, Paul, Santorum, and Newt. Newt really isn't all that much different than Romney with the flips except a more conservative record than Mitt. Santorum's similar to Bush with his record. Ron Paul is who he is.

I'm going to wait and see what happens with South Carolina and Florida and make my final primary decision from there.

In other news, Conservative Jack Hoogendyk, former state rep and Core Principles blogger Jack Hoogendyk wants a rematch against moderate Fred Upton. Jack lost 42,182 to 31,660 in the little publicized (at least in East Michigan) 2010 primary. It may get more interesting this time. At worst, this pushes Upton to the right a bit on issues like energy.

State House Redistricting - District 60 (HD-60)

2012-01-16T16:12:00.000-05:00

State House - District 60
Current Rep - Sean McCann (D-Kalamazoo)

Old District (60th)
Sean McCann - 13,841
Jeff Fernandez - 8,024

This is one of the safest democrat districts in West Michigan. It has all of the City of Kalamazoo and part of Kalamazoo Township. The old district drops Cooper Township and takes in most, although not all, of Kalamazoo Township making it more democrat. The City of Kalamazoo is usually 60%+ democrat thanks to WMU, Kalamazoo College, and the minority population on the city's north side. According to Dave's redistricting, it was a 72% Obama district.

State House Redistricting - District 59 (HD-59)

2012-01-16T15:58:00.000-05:00

State House - District 59
Current Rep - Matt Lori (R-Constantine)

2010 Results - Old District (59th)
Matt Lori - 17,604
Carol Higgins - 6,846

This district expanded some with redistricting, although it is similar to the old incarnation. Both versions cover all of St Joseph County and part of Cass County. This district took more of Cass County.

The part of Cass County covered with the old district is Calvin, Jefferson, LaGrange, Marcellus, Mason, Milton, Newberg, Ontwa, Penn, Pokagon, Porter, and Volinia Townships. The new district drops Milton and Ontwa Townships and picks up Wayne Township and most notably Dowagiac. This district was safe GOP before, and probably leans that way now, but Dowagiac and Vandalia (Heavily minority village, corner of four townships, I think Calvin, Penn, LaGrange, Jefferson) together without heavy GOP Ontwa Twp makes me slightly nervous. McCain absolutely got hammered in SW Michigan compared to Bush. SW Michigan has more ties to South Bend and Chicago than it does to Detroit. Obama won the district.

I'll call this a lean district for now. That's due to this being a presidential year with a district "close" to Chicago/South Bend, and also due to the neighboring 78th district (with Dowagiac) being competitive in the past.

This one should stay ours, but shouldn't be taken for granted.

	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
St Joseph County	12886	12322	25208	564	51.12%	48.88%	2.24%
Cass County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Calvin Twp	331	591	922	-260	35.90%	64.10%	-28.20%
Dowagiac City	667	1548	2215	-881	30.11%	69.89%	-39.77%
Jefferson Twp	611	577	1188	34	51.43%	48.57%	2.86%
Lagrange Twp	540	992	1532	-452	35.25%	64.75%	-29.50%
Marcellus Twp	464	603	1067	-139	43.49%	56.51%	-13.03%
Mason Twp	560	452	1012	108	55.34%	44.66%	10.67%
Newberg Twp	374	381	755	-7	49.54%	50.46%	-0.93%
Penn Twp	467	464	931	3	50.16%	49.84%	0.32%
Pokagon Twp	479	560	1039	-81	46.10%	53.90%	-7.80%
Porter Twp	1103	807	1910	296	57.75%	42.25%	15.50%
Volinia Twp	317	237	554	80	57.22%	42.78%	14.44%
Wayne Twp	566	630	1196	-64	47.32%	52.68%	-5.35%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	19365	20164	39529	-799	48.99%	51.01%	-2.02%

	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
St Joseph County	15340	9648	24988	5692	61.39%	38.61%	22.78%
Cass County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Calvin Twp	440	379	819	61	53.72%	46.28%	7.45%
Dowagiac City	951	1207	2158	-256	44.07%	55.93%	-11.86%
Jefferson Twp	656	444	1100	212	59.64%	40.36%	19.27%
Lagrange Twp	680	777	1457	-97	46.67%	53.33%	-6.66%
Marcellus Twp	599	521	1120	78	53.48%	46.52%	6.96%
Mason Twp	627	347	974	280	64.37%	35.63%	28.75%
Newberg Twp	455	310	765	145	59.48%	40.52%	18.95%
Penn Twp	519	391	910	128	57.03%	42.97%	14.07%
Pokagon Twp	541	450	991	91	54.59%	45.41%	9.18%
Porter Twp	1262	537	1799	725	70.15%	29.85%	40.30%
Volinia Twp	355	251	606	104	58.58%	41.42%	17.16%
Wayne Twp	666	543	1209	123	55.09%	44.91%	10.17%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	23091	15805	38896	7286	59.37%	40.63%	18.73%

Last St House	GOP	DEM	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
St Joseph County	11234	3945	15179	7289	74.01%	25.99%	48.02%
Cass County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Calvin Twp	289	204	493	85	58.62%	41.38%	17.24%
Dowagiac City			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Jefferson Twp	506	254	760	252	66.58%	33.42%	33.16%
Lagrange Twp	457	347	804	110	56.84%	43.16%	13.68%
Marcellus Twp	381	253	634	128	60.09%	39.91%	20.19%
Mason Twp	477	141	618	336	77.18%	22.82%	54.37%
Newberg Twp	322	145	467	177	68.95%	31.05%	37.90%
Penn Twp	405	182	587	223	68.99%	31.01%	37.99%
Pokagon Twp	374	228	602	146	62.13%	37.87%	24.25%
Porter Twp	935	280	1215	655	76.95%	23.05%	53.91%
Volinia Twp	242	109	351	133	68.95%	31.05%	37.89%
Wayne Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	15622	6088	21710	9534	71.96%	28.04%	43.92%

State House Redistricting - District 58 (HD-58)

2012-01-16T15:30:00.000-05:00

State House - District 58
Current Rep - Ken Kurtz (R-Coldwater)

2010 Results - Old District (58th)
Ken Kurtz - Unopposed in general election

This is a safe republican district covering Hillsdale and Branch Counties. It remains unchanged from the old districts. It's a safe district that has not gone democrat under its current leanings with both counties going even for McCain. Walberg's won both counties in his congressional runs as well. Hillsdale competes with Livingston County and Allegan County for third place statewide every election. Branch County is safe as well, although more "competitive" than Hillsdale. It would take a disaster candidate to lose this one.

	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Branch County	9534	8413	17947	1121	53.12%	46.88%	6.25%
Hillsdale County	11221	8765	19986	2456	56.14%	43.86%	12.29%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	20755	17178	37933	3577	54.71%	45.29%	9.43%

	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Branch County	10784	7004	17788	3780	60.63%	39.37%	21.25%
Hillsdale County	12804	7123	19927	5681	64.25%	35.75%	28.51%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	23588	14127	37715	9461	62.54%	37.46%	25.09%

State House Redistricting - District 57 (HD-57)

2012-01-16T12:34:00.000-05:00

State House - District 57
Current Rep - Nancy Jenkins (R-Clayton)

2010 Results - Old District (57th)
Nancy Jenkins - 16,660
Harvey Schmidt - 12,385

This district was unchanged. It covers all of Lenawee County outside of Cambridge Township. It's a social conservative swing district that votes for the person more than the party. Bush won it twice. Clinton and Obama both won it. It has been democrat for 12 years until the 2010 election. Doug and Dudley Spade were popular with crossover support. Nancy Jenkins won the open seat in 2010. Before the Spades, the state rep was now congressman Tim Walberg.

I expect competitive races here in the future, although Republicans overall tend to do better here than democrats if someone named Spade is not on the ticket. Tim Walberg had this district for either 16 or 18 years before being termed out. I'd still call it a swing district until Jenkins wins until being termed out with the winner going our way. It's not our toughest defense, but it's not going to be an easy one either.

	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Adrian	2684	5045	7729	-2361	34.73%	65.27%	-30.55%
Adrian Twp	1798	1661	3459	137	51.98%	48.02%	3.96%
Blissfield Twp	1075	972	2047	103	52.52%	47.48%	5.03%
Clinton Twp	872	1021	1893	-149	46.06%	53.94%	-7.87%
Deerfield Twp	379	377	756	2	50.13%	49.87%	0.26%
Dover Twp	401	344	745	57	53.83%	46.17%	7.65%
Fairfield Twp	407	429	836	-22	48.68%	51.32%	-2.63%
Franklin Twp	810	758	1568	52	51.66%	48.34%	3.32%
Hudson	422	471	893	-49	47.26%	52.74%	-5.49%
Hudson Twp	375	370	745	5	50.34%	49.66%	0.67%
Macon Twp	490	399	889	91	55.12%	44.88%	10.24%
Madison Twp	1457	1598	3055	-141	47.69%	52.31%	-4.62%
Medina Twp	294	202	496	92	59.27%	40.73%	18.55%
Morenci	395	519	914	-124	43.22%	56.78%	-13.57%
Ogden Twp	328	236	564	92	58.16%	41.84%	16.31%
Palmyra Twp	545	550	1095	-5	49.77%	50.23%	-0.46%
Raisin Twp	1894	2004	3898	-110	48.59%	51.41%	-2.82%
Ridgeway Twp	411	344	755	67	54.44%	45.56%	8.87%
Riga Twp	470	345	815	125	57.67%	42.33%	15.34%
Rollin Twp	835	777	1612	58	51.80%	48.20%	3.60%
Rome Twp	480	397	877	83	54.73%	45.27%	9.46%
Seneca Twp	261	289	550	-28	47.45%	52.55%	-5.09%
Tecumseh	2001	2571	4572	-570	43.77%	56.23%	-12.47%
Tecumseh Twp	631	527	1158	104	54.49%	45.51%	8.98%
Woodstock Twp	871	856	1727	15	50.43%	49.57%	0.87%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	20586	23062	43648	-2476	47.16%	52.84%	-5.67%

	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Adrian	3525	4226	7751	-701	45.48%	54.52%	-9.04%
Adrian Twp	2032	1342	3374	690	60.23%	39.77%	20.45%
Blissfield Twp	1207	798	2005	409	60.20%	39.80%	20.40%
Clinton Twp	984	836	1820	148	54.07%	45.93%	8.13%
Deerfield Twp	411	347	758	64	54.22%	45.78%	8.44%
Dover Twp	466	339	805	127	57.89%	42.11%	15.78%
Fairfield Twp	456	355	811	101	56.23%	43.77%	12.45%
Franklin Twp	892	657	1549	235	57.59%	42.41%	15.17%
Hudson	524	367	891	157	58.81%	41.19%	17.62%
Hudson Twp	418	333	751	85	55.66%	44.34%	11.32%
Macon Twp	525	311	836	214	62.80%	37.20%	25.60%
Madison Twp	1624	1251	2875	373	56.49%	43.51%	12.97%
Medina Twp	332	212	544	120	61.03%	38.97%	22.06%
Morenci	542	423	965	119	56.17%	43.83%	12.33%
Ogden Twp	363	201	564	162	64.36%	35.64%	28.72%
Palmyra Twp	588	483	1071	105	54.90%	45.10%	9.80%
Raisin Twp	2076	1655	3731	421	55.64%	44.36%	11.28%
Ridgeway Twp	497	303	800	194	62.13%	37.88%	24.25%
Riga Twp	508	284	792	224	64.14%	35.86%	28.28%
Rollin Twp	941	683	1624	258	57.94%	42.06%	15.89%
Rome Twp	551	348	899	203	61.29%	38.71%	22.58%
Seneca Twp	331	240	571	91	57.97%	42.03%	15.94%
Tecumseh	2410	2153	4563	257	52.82%	47.18%	5.63%
Tecumseh Twp	689	481	1170	208	58.89%	41.11%	17.78%
Woodstock Twp	970	755	1725	215	56.23%	43.77%	12.46%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	23862	19383	43245	4479	55.18%	44.82%	10.36%

Last St Rep	GOP	Dem	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Adrian	2207	2382	4589	-175	48.09%	51.91%	-3.81%
Adrian Twp	1512	886	2398	626	63.05%	36.95%	26.11%
Blissfield Twp	864	519	1383	345	62.47%	37.53%	24.95%
Clinton Twp	664	608	1272	56	52.20%	47.80%	4.40%
Deerfield Twp	289	191	480	98	60.21%	39.79%	20.42%
Dover Twp	372	136	508	236	73.23%	26.77%	46.46%
Fairfield Twp	371	185	556	186	66.73%	33.27%	33.45%
Franklin Twp	645	463	1108	182	58.21%	41.79%	16.43%
Hudson	408	186	594	222	68.69%	31.31%	37.37%
Hudson Twp	347	194	541	153	64.14%	35.86%	28.28%
Macon Twp	398	213	611	185	65.14%	34.86%	30.28%
Madison Twp	1234	775	2009	459	61.42%	38.58%	22.85%
Medina Twp	231	95	326	136	70.86%	29.14%	41.72%
Morenci	318	219	537	99	59.22%	40.78%	18.44%
Ogden Twp	265	117	382	148	69.37%	30.63%	38.74%
Palmyra Twp	462	267	729	195	63.37%	36.63%	26.75%
Raisin Twp	1398	1195	2593	203	53.91%	46.09%	7.83%
Ridgeway Twp	316	222	538	94	58.74%	41.26%	17.47%
Riga Twp	356	159	515	197	69.13%	30.87%	38.25%
Rollin Twp	793	394	1187	399	66.81%	33.19%	33.61%
Rome Twp	429	174	603	255	71.14%	28.86%	42.29%
Seneca Twp	239	125	364	114	65.66%	34.34%	31.32%
Tecumseh	1350	1814	3164	-464	42.67%	57.33%	-14.66%
Tecumseh Twp	486	381	867	105	56.06%	43.94%	12.11%
Woodstock Twp	724	485	1209	239	59.88%	40.12%	19.77%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	16678	12385	29063	4293	57.39%	42.61%	14.77%

State House Redistricting - District 56 (HD-56)

2012-01-16T12:06:00.000-05:00

State House - District 56
Current Rep - Dale Zorn (R-Ida)

2010 Results - Old District (55th)
Rick Olson - 17,295
Mike Smith - 15,381

Old District (56th)
Dale Zorn - 15,582
Kate Ebli - 13,945

The new 56th district is more like the 55th than the old 56th. The old 56th covered Eastern Monroe County and was based in Monroe. The old 55th covered part of Washtenaw County and Western Monroe County with two anchors, one in Pittsfield Twp, and one in Bedford Twp outside of Toledo. The new 56th covers Southern and Northwestern Monroe County.

The new 56th kept Ida Twp, LaSalle Twp, Monroe Twp (not city), and Raisinville Twp. The rest all was added to the 55th. Bedford, Dundee, Erie, Milan City and Twp, Petersburg, Summerfield, and Whiteford Townships. This is still a swing district and nothing comes easy in Monroe County, either at the top of bottom of the ticket. It's voted for both parties in the past and has a populist heritage. This new district is slightly more republican than the old 55th or old 56th on paper, but it is certainly winnable by a candidate in either party. Dingell types do well here, and until 2010, John Dingell ran strong in Monroe County.

Dale Zorn is the incumbent, and defeated Kate Ebli, an incumbent who won tough races here in the past. Part of it was the 2010 year, but defeating incumbents show some strength.

	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Bedford Twp	8162	8527	16689	-365	48.91%	51.09%	-2.19%
Dundee Twp	1717	1615	3332	102	51.53%	48.47%	3.06%
Erie Twp	1000	1260	2260	-260	44.25%	55.75%	-11.50%
Ida Twp	1487	1227	2714	260	54.79%	45.21%	9.58%
LaSalle Twp	1363	1268	2631	95	51.81%	48.19%	3.61%
Luna Pier	280	412	692	-132	40.46%	59.54%	-19.08%
Milan	375	532	907	-157	41.35%	58.65%	-17.31%
Milan Twp	459	417	876	42	52.40%	47.60%	4.79%
Monroe Twp	3066	3526	6592	-460	46.51%	53.49%	-6.98%
Petersburg	251	310	561	-59	44.74%	55.26%	-10.52%
Raisinville Twp	1598	1421	3019	177	52.93%	47.07%	5.86%
Summerfield Twp	828	792	1620	36	51.11%	48.89%	2.22%
Whiteford Twp	1314	1087	2401	227	54.73%	45.27%	9.45%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	21900	22394	44294	-494	49.44%	50.56%	-1.12%

	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Bedford Twp	8761	7776	16537	985	52.98%	47.02%	5.96%
Dundee Twp	1666	1331	2997	335	55.59%	44.41%	11.18%
Erie Twp	1118	1237	2355	-119	47.47%	52.53%	-5.05%
Ida Twp	1532	1105	2637	427	58.10%	41.90%	16.19%
LaSalle Twp	1451	1192	2643	259	54.90%	45.10%	9.80%
Luna Pier	323	388	711	-65	45.43%	54.57%	-9.14%
Milan	432	458	890	-26	48.54%	51.46%	-2.92%
Milan Twp	469	433	902	36	52.00%	48.00%	3.99%
Monroe Twp	3111	3336	6447	-225	48.26%	51.74%	-3.49%
Petersburg	274	252	526	22	52.09%	47.91%	4.18%
Raisinville Twp	1647	1230	2877	417	57.25%	42.75%	14.49%
Summerfield Twp	938	712	1650	226	56.85%	43.15%	13.70%
Whiteford Twp	1416	955	2371	461	59.72%	40.28%	19.44%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	23138	20405	43543	2733	53.14%	46.86%	6.28%

Last St House	GOP	DEM	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Bedford Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Dundee Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Erie Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Ida Twp	1085	610	1695	475	64.01%	35.99%	28.02%
LaSalle Twp	1004	752	1756	252	57.18%	42.82%	14.35%
Luna Pier	200	221	421	-21	47.51%	52.49%	-4.99%
Milan			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Milan Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Monroe Twp	2153	1873	4026	280	53.48%	46.52%	6.95%
Petersburg			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Raisinville Twp	1259	869	2128	390	59.16%	40.84%	18.33%
Summerfield Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Whiteford Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	5701	4325	10026	1376	56.86%	43.14%	13.72%

Huntsman to drop. Expected to endorse Romney

2012-01-16T11:38:00.001-05:00

From CNN

Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman will withdraw from the Republican presidential race Monday and endorse front-runner Mitt Romney, according to a senior official with the Huntsman campaign.

Huntsman is expected to announce his decision to drop out at an event at 11 a.m. in Myrtle Beach.

While the more moderate Huntsman hasn't had much support in the polls in conservative South Carolina -- which holds its primary this coming Saturday -- his decision to pull out could provide a critical extra cushion of votes for Romney, who is facing stiff conservative competition there from Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich.

Romney's campaign -- already bolstered by a huge campaign war chest and a wave of momentum after wins in Iowa and New Hampshire -- is hoping for a possible knockout blow if the former Massachusetts governor finishes first in the Palmetto State. South Carolina has picked the winner of every GOP presidential nomination fight since 1980.

"Governor Huntsman did not want to stand in the way of the candidate best prepared to beat Barack Obama and turn our economy around. That's Mitt Romney," the official said.

Despite his rep, I think Huntsman was actually to the right of Romney, at least the Romney who actually was governor. He's also more consistent. I think what hurt Hunstman was three things. The biggest one was the ambassador job. That shouldn't have hurt him, but it did. It was a minor admin job which he was certainly qualified to hold. Another was Global warming. That was my major problem with Huntsman. He supported cap and trade, at least on the state level. The other one was his well known support for gay civil unions. I mildly oppose that preferring government to stay out of marriage altogether. That's not a dealbreaking issue for me.

I also he spent too much, but the same problems I had with Huntsman also applied to Romney, and even Newt to a degree. Because of those things, Huntsman never gained traction, in any of the states. A lot of the folks that would support him supported Romney instead. Romney was their guy last time.

I don't think this matters much for South Carolina, but it does help Romney long term. Many of the Huntsman supporters will probably support Romney now. Most of the "anyone but Romney" vote would have supported someone besides Huntsman anyway. This could give Romney a 2-3% bump in the states, but that might be all he needs. The big winner today with this announcement is Romney.

New Hampshire results

2012-01-10T23:33:00.000-05:00

The second primary/caucus is in, and Romney won big with almost 40%.

With 87% in:

Mitt Romney - 39%
Ron Paul - 23%
Huntsman - 17%
Newt - 9%
Santorum - 9%
Perry - 1%

South Carolina is next. It'll be interesting to see if:
1. Any more folks drop.
2. Will there be a consensus opponent to Rommey. Right now it looks like this could end up being a Romney/Paul race. Huntsman made some noise, but he'd didn't break 20%. Santorum couldn't break 10% after Iowa.

The field sucks. Obama sucks more.

State House Redistricting - District 55 (HD-55)

2012-01-09T17:24:00.001-05:00

State House - District 55
Current Rep - Rick Olson (R-Pittsfield Twp or York Twp)

2010 Results - Old District (55th)
Rick Olson - 17,295
Mike Smith - 15,381

Rick Olson got absolutely screwed like the Detroit Lions with redistricting. Badly. The committee decided to sacrifice one seat to try and save Ouimet, a Monroe based seat, and possibly Somerville in Downriver. Hopefully they save them, but I don't like conceding a district for "might saves."

The old district was a swing district with slightly Republican leaning Western Monroe County (Dem areas are in the other Monroe district), along with swing area Milan, democrat Pittsfield Twp, and republican Saline Twp, and York Twp. Olson won big in Monroe County. The new district cuts Western Monroe County, adds democrat leaning Augusta Twp, and the parts of Ann Arbor (city/twp) not in the 53rd district.

What I'm wondering is what Olson has planned. This new district is safe democrat. 69% for Obama according to Dave's Redistricting. Olson claims "Saline" as his home. Saline mailing addresses are found in Pittsfield Twp as well as Saline itself. Will Olson run in Ouimet's seat conceding this district? Or another seat?

He's got a tough decision ahead of him.

State House Redistricting - District 54 (HD-54)

2012-01-09T17:03:00.000-05:00

State House - District 54
Current Rep - David Rutledge (D-Ypsilanti)

2010 Results - Old District (54th)
David Rutledge - 18,146
Richard Deitering - 9,706

The traditional "Ypsi" district hasn't changed much. The old district covered Salem Twp, Ypsilanti City and Twp, Superior Twp, and Augusta Twp. The new district dropped Augusta and Salem Townships due to growth in Superior Township and kept the other areas. It's even more democrat than the old district and is a safe district on par with the Ann Arbor based 55th.

	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Superior Twp	2048	4951	6999	-2903	29.26%	70.74%	-41.48%
Ypsilanti	1306	7828	9134	-6522	14.30%	85.70%	-71.40%
Ypsilanti Twp	6517	19579	26096	-13062	24.97%	75.03%	-50.05%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	9871	32358	42229	-22487	23.37%	76.63%	-53.25%

	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Superior Twp	2227	3948	6175	-1721	36.06%	63.94%	-27.87%
Ypsilanti	1581	6046	7627	-4465	20.73%	79.27%	-58.54%
Ypsilanti Twp	7887	16240	24127	-8353	32.69%	67.31%	-34.62%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	11695	26234	37929	-14539	30.83%	69.17%	-38.33%

Last State House	GOP	Dem	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Superior Twp	1668	2759	4427	-1091	37.68%	62.32%	-24.64%
Ypsilanti	789	3442	4231	-2653	18.65%	81.35%	-62.70%
Ypsilanti Twp	4591	10131	14722	-5540	31.18%	68.82%	-37.63%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	7048	16332	23380	-9284	30.15%	69.85%	-39.71%

State House Redistricting - District 53 (HD-53)

2012-01-09T16:45:00.000-05:00

State House - District 53
Current Rep - Jeff Irwin (D-Ann Arbor)

2010 Results - Old District (53rd)
Jeff Irwin - 23,440
Chase Ingersoll - 5,692

This district hasn't changed much. The old district was Central, Western, and Southern Ann Arbor. The new district is all of Central and Southern Ann Arbor. It's as you'd expect a safe district for the dems, and incumbent Jeff Irwin.

This is an approximate 81% Obama district. That's all that needs to be said. It covers basically all of Ann Arbor south of Glazier Way on the East Side, and approximately South of Huron St on the West Side.

State House Redistricting - District 52 (HD-52)

2012-01-09T16:34:00.000-05:00

State House - District 52
Current Rep - Mark Ouimet (R-Scio Township)

2010 Results - Old District (52nd)
Mark Ouimet - 21,879
Christine Green - 20,287

The big redistricting winner this cycle is Mark Ouimet, who won a democrat district in what I think was an upset. This district was democrat for three terms from the 04 election to the 08 elections. Pam Byrnes. Gene DeRossett got a lot of union crossovers in the 02 election, but he was a quasi-incumbent. The old district was I believe about 55% for John Kerry, and about 60% for Obama. Snyder on the ballot helped here. Even so, I'm real surprised that he defeated a female democrat in a district that contains Northern Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor Township, AND Scio Township.

The district added Republican Salem and Saline Townships, while contracting the portion of the City of Ann Arbor in the district, as well as Ann Arbor Township. That changes the district from one that leaned democrat to one more winnable. Nothing comes easy in Washtenaw County, especially a district that still has Scio Township and Chelsea. One thing to keep in mind with these numbers is that Dexter Township is not to be confused with the Village of Dexter. The village is mostly in Scio Township.

Overall, I'll consider it competitive with a very slight GOP advantage for Ouimet, although still difficult to defend. Even without the worst parts of the old district, this is hardly a safe district.

	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Bridgewater Twp	526	481	1007	45	52.23%	47.77%	4.47%
Chelsea	1214	1748	2962	-534	40.99%	59.01%	-18.03%
Dexter Twp	1730	2064	3794	-334	45.60%	54.40%	-8.80%
Freedom Twp	481	428	909	53	52.92%	47.08%	5.83%
Lima Twp	973	973	1946	0	50.00%	50.00%	0.00%
Lodi Twp	1894	1803	3697	91	51.23%	48.77%	2.46%
Lyndon Twp	735	843	1578	-108	46.58%	53.42%	-6.84%
Manchester Twp	1241	1424	2665	-183	46.57%	53.43%	-6.87%
Northfield Twp	2109	2310	4419	-201	47.73%	52.27%	-4.55%
Salem Twp	2067	1510	3577	557	57.79%	42.21%	15.57%
Saline	2221	2906	5127	-685	43.32%	56.68%	-13.36%
Saline Twp	539	507	1046	32	51.53%	48.47%	3.06%
Scio Twp	3772	7709	11481	-3937	32.85%	67.15%	-34.29%
Sharon Twp	556	503	1059	53	52.50%	47.50%	5.00%
Sylvan Twp	919	996	1915	-77	47.99%	52.01%	-4.02%
Webster Twp	1911	2186	4097	-275	46.64%	53.36%	-6.71%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	22888	28391	51279	-5503	44.63%	55.37%	-10.73%

	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Bridgewater Twp	550	352	902	198	60.98%	39.02%	21.95%
Chelsea	1300	1490	2790	-190	46.59%	53.41%	-6.81%
Dexter Twp	1909	1672	3581	237	53.31%	46.69%	6.62%
Freedom Twp	481	405	886	76	54.29%	45.71%	8.58%
Lima Twp	926	709	1635	217	56.64%	43.36%	13.27%
Lodi Twp	2104	1519	3623	585	58.07%	41.93%	16.15%
Lyndon Twp	812	718	1530	94	53.07%	46.93%	6.14%
Manchester Twp	1299	1168	2467	131	52.66%	47.34%	5.31%
Northfield Twp	2352	2027	4379	325	53.71%	46.29%	7.42%
Salem Twp	2130	1330	3460	800	61.56%	38.44%	23.12%
Saline	2656	2418	5074	238	52.35%	47.65%	4.69%
Saline Twp	612	464	1076	148	56.88%	43.12%	13.75%
Scio Twp	4244	6262	10506	-2018	40.40%	59.60%	-19.21%
Sharon Twp	630	440	1070	190	58.88%	41.12%	17.76%
Sylvan Twp	983	819	1802	164	54.55%	45.45%	9.10%
Webster Twp	2097	1707	3804	390	55.13%	44.87%	10.25%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	25085	23500	48585	1585	51.63%	48.37%	3.26%

Last St House	GOP	DEM	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Bridgewater Twp	464	242	706	222	65.72%	34.28%	31.44%
Chelsea	1147	989	2136	158	53.70%	46.30%	7.40%
Dexter Twp	1689	1107	2796	582	60.41%	39.59%	20.82%
Freedom Twp	432	257	689	175	62.70%	37.30%	25.40%
Lima Twp	936	624	1560	312	60.00%	40.00%	20.00%
Lodi Twp	1738	1019	2757	719	63.04%	36.96%	26.08%
Lyndon Twp	666	482	1148	184	58.01%	41.99%	16.03%
Manchester Twp	1122	787	1909	335	58.77%	41.23%	17.55%
Northfield Twp	1775	1157	2932	618	60.54%	39.46%	21.08%
Salem Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Saline	1936	1533	3469	403	55.81%	44.19%	11.62%
Saline Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Scio Twp	3705	4524	8229	-819	45.02%	54.98%	-9.95%
Sharon Twp	540	300	840	240	64.29%	35.71%	28.57%
Sylvan Twp	883	535	1418	348	62.27%	37.73%	24.54%
Webster Twp	1852	1267	3119	585	59.38%	40.62%	18.76%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	18885	14823	33708	4062	56.03%	43.97%	12.05%

State House Redistricting - District 51 (HD-51)

2012-01-09T12:48:00.000-05:00

State House - District 51
Current Rep - Vacant, will be either Joe Graves or Steven Losey

2010 Results - Old District (51st)
Paul Scott - 22,509
Art Reyes - 15,275

This district is a big different than the old 51st. It expanded into Oakland County. The old district stayed in Genesee County and covered Argentine Twp, Atlas Twp, Fenton, Grand Blanc, Linden, and Mundy Twp.

The new district drops competitive Grand Blanc and democrat leaning Mundy Twp. It picks up the swing areas of Gaines Twp and Flushing Twp. It also picks up from Oakland County, Holly (swing), Rose (GOP), and Groveland Twps (GOP).

For the "last state house" numbers, I'm going to wait until the Feb 28th recall replacement election happens, because it will be the first numbers for Graves/Losey. The new district should lean republican, as even McCain won it. The old district was competitive, but the GOP with Roberston who took the district from the democrats in 2002. He was able to hang on to it three times. Paul Scott won it twice, but got recalled in a narrow vote when the MEA went to war. This is a new district however, and one that I think favors us.

	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Genesee County			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Argentine Twp	1845	1791	3636	54	50.74%	49.26%	1.49%
Atlas Twp	2481	2129	4610	352	53.82%	46.18%	7.64%
Clayton Twp	2035	2385	4420	-350	46.04%	53.96%	-7.92%
Fenton	2709	3129	5838	-420	46.40%	53.60%	-7.19%
Fenton Twp	4847	4111	8958	736	54.11%	45.89%	8.22%
Flushing Twp	2327	2719	5046	-392	46.12%	53.88%	-7.77%
Gaines Twp	1790	2078	3868	-288	46.28%	53.72%	-7.45%
Linden	1143	1082	2225	61	51.37%	48.63%	2.74%
Oakland County			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Groveland Twp	1769	1275	3044	494	58.11%	41.89%	16.23%
Holly Twp	2678	2969	5647	-291	47.42%	52.58%	-5.15%
Rose Twp	1936	1573	3509	363	55.17%	44.83%	10.34%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	25560	25241	50801	319	50.31%	49.69%	0.63%

	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Genesee County			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Argentine Twp	1981	1483	3464	498	57.19%	42.81%	14.38%
Atlas Twp	2606	1704	4310	902	60.46%	39.54%	20.93%
Clayton Twp	2162	2134	4296	28	50.33%	49.67%	0.65%
Fenton	3026	2554	5580	472	54.23%	45.77%	8.46%
Fenton Twp	5319	3570	8889	1749	59.84%	40.16%	19.68%
Flushing Twp	3298	2849	6147	449	53.65%	46.35%	7.30%
Gaines Twp	1905	1930	3835	-25	49.67%	50.33%	-0.65%
Linden	1250	853	2103	397	59.44%	40.56%	18.88%
Oakland County			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Groveland Twp	1988	1204	3192	784	62.28%	37.72%	24.56%
Holly Twp	2813	2442	5255	371	53.53%	46.47%	7.06%
Rose Twp	2139	1337	3476	802	61.54%	38.46%	23.07%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	28487	22060	50547	6427	56.36%	43.64%	12.71%

State House Redistricting - District 50 (HD-50)

2012-01-09T12:14:00.000-05:00

State House - District 50
Current Rep - Charles Smiley (D-Burton)

2010 Results - Old District (50th)
Charles Smiley - 13,647
William Ralph - 12,134

Old District 51st
Paul Scott - 22,509
Art Reyes - 15,275

This district changed significantly from the old 50th. It drops everything except Burton and picks up Mundy Twp and Grand Blanc City/Twp from the old 51st. Paul Scott would be in this district, but he was recalled last November. If Joe Graves replaces him, he would be in the new 51st.

I can see this district being competitive in a 2010 type of year, but in most years it will lean democrat. While Bush won it in 04, the Grand Blanc area is not trending favorably with more of Flint moving there. Burton has been democrat as long as I remember, and Mundy Twp leans that way. It would take big numbers in Grand Blanc to win this district. This seat leans dem until proven otherwise.

	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Burton	4981	9057	14038	-4076	35.48%	64.52%	-29.04%
Grand Blanc	1991	2411	4402	-420	45.23%	54.77%	-9.54%
Grand Blanc Twp	8309	10951	19260	-2642	43.14%	56.86%	-13.72%
Mundy Twp	3688	4807	8495	-1119	43.41%	56.59%	-13.17%
Total	18969	27226	46195	-8257	41.06%	58.94%	-17.87%

	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Burton	5829	8304	14133	-2475	41.24%	58.76%	-17.51%
Grand Blanc	2394	1985	4379	409	54.67%	45.33%	9.34%
Grand Blanc Twp	9369	8862	18231	507	51.39%	48.61%	2.78%
Mundy Twp	3999	4102	8101	-103	49.36%	50.64%	-1.27%
Total	21591	23253	44844	-1662	48.15%	51.85%	-3.71%

Last State House	GOP	Dem	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Burton	3610	4757	8367	-1147	43.15%	56.85%	-13.71%
Grand Blanc			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Grand Blanc Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Mundy Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	3610	4757	8367	-1147	43.15%	56.85%	-13.71%

State House Redistricting - District 49 (HD-49)

2012-01-09T11:54:00.001-05:00

State House - District 49th
Current Reps - Jim Ananich (D-Flint), Richard Hammel (D-Mt Morris Twp, termed out)

2010 Results - Old District (49th)

This district is one of two districts that contains part of the City of Flint. Most of Flint is in the 34th district, pushing the 49th more out into the suburbs. The old 49th covered part of Flint, Flint Twp, Swartz Creek, Gaines Twp, and part of Clayton Twp. The new 49th drops a small part of Flint to the 34th, Gaines and Clayton Twps to the new 51st, and picks up the City of Flushing, Mt Morris, and Mt Morris Twp.

Jim Ananich is the incumbent and is from Flint. Hammel is also in this district, but termed out, so there won't be a primary between those two. I can't run exact numbers yet because of the split cities, but this district is the 2nd most democrat in Genesee County due to Flint and Mt Morris. If Ananich is going to have trouble, it will be in the primary. This was about a 70% Obama district according to Dave's redistricting.

State House Redistricting - District 48 (HD-48)

2012-01-09T11:34:00.000-05:00

State House - District 48
Current Rep - Open

2010 Results - Old District (48th)
Richard Hammel - 28,251
Ralph Burger - 13,703

Old District 50th
Charles Smiley - 13,647
William Ralph - 12,134

All of the Genesse County districts have changed a bit due to population shifts. This district is opened up and was mostly Hammel's old district, with part of Smiley's district as well.

The old 48th covered Clayton Twp, Clio, Flushing City and Twp, Forest Twp, Montrose city and Twp, Mt Morris City and Twp, Thetford Twp, and Vienna Twp.

The new 48th drops Mt Morris and the City of Flushing to the 49th, Flushing and Clayton Townships to the 51st, and picks up Genesee, Richfield, and Davison City/Twp from the 50th.

The district leans democrat, but could be competitive in a 2010 or 1994 type of year. It doesn't have Burton or Mt Morris anchoring the district, although it's still John Cherry country, and there's still the democrat stronghold of Genesee Township. For the "last state house" portion, I combined the last two state rep races from the 48th and 50th. It's apples to oranges to a degree as one race was competitive and the other not. William Ralph might make this district interesting if he lives here, but I can't bet against the dems here.

	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Clio	384	761	1145	-377	33.54%	66.46%	-32.93%
Davison	1053	1625	2678	-572	39.32%	60.68%	-21.36%
Davison Twp	4474	5776	10250	-1302	43.65%	56.35%	-12.70%
Forest Twp	1089	1516	2605	-427	41.80%	58.20%	-16.39%
Genesee Twp	3313	7148	10461	-3835	31.67%	68.33%	-36.66%
Montrose	296	471	767	-175	38.59%	61.41%	-22.82%
Montrose Twp	1201	1796	2997	-595	40.07%	59.93%	-19.85%
Richfield Twp	1911	2890	4801	-979	39.80%	60.20%	-20.39%
Thetford Twp	1360	2314	3674	-954	37.02%	62.98%	-25.97%
Vienna Twp	2715	4175	6890	-1460	39.40%	60.60%	-21.19%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	17796	28472	46268	-10676	38.46%	61.54%	-23.07%

	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Clio	533	691	1224	-158	43.55%	56.45%	-12.91%
Davison	1317	1540	2857	-223	46.10%	53.90%	-7.81%
Davison Twp	4833	5041	9874	-208	48.95%	51.05%	-2.11%
Forest Twp	1271	1414	2685	-143	47.34%	52.66%	-5.33%
Genesee Twp	3805	7010	10815	-3205	35.18%	64.82%	-29.63%
Montrose	349	451	800	-102	43.63%	56.38%	-12.75%
Montrose Twp	1365	1643	3008	-278	45.38%	54.62%	-9.24%
Richfield Twp	2149	2630	4779	-481	44.97%	55.03%	-10.06%
Thetford Twp	1611	2246	3857	-635	41.77%	58.23%	-16.46%
Vienna Twp	3083	3851	6934	-768	44.46%	55.54%	-11.08%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	20316	26517	46833	-6201	43.38%	56.62%	-13.24%

Last St House	GOP	DEM	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Clio	282	391	673	-109	41.90%	58.10%	-16.20%
Davison	883	876	1759	7	50.20%	49.80%	0.40%
Davison Twp	3562	2915	6477	647	54.99%	45.01%	9.99%
Forest Twp	829	868	1697	-39	48.85%	51.15%	-2.30%
Genesee Twp	2538	3563	6101	-1025	41.60%	58.40%	-16.80%
Montrose	221	281	502	-60	44.02%	55.98%	-11.95%
Montrose Twp	844	984	1828	-140	46.17%	53.83%	-7.66%
Richfield Twp	1541	1536	3077	5	50.08%	49.92%	0.16%
Thetford Twp	971	1218	2189	-247	44.36%	55.64%	-11.28%
Vienna Twp	1904	2376	4280	-472	44.49%	55.51%	-11.03%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	13575	15008	28583	-1433	47.49%	52.51%	-5.01%

Iowa results and quick analysis

2012-01-04T08:24:00.002-05:00

I'm a little surprised at the results coming in. This is the first actual poll that counts. New Hampshire is next January 10th, followed by South Carolina on January 21st and Florida on January 31st.

The Iowa caucuses count. They count more for momentum than anything else, but unlike the phone polls, these are binding and have a larger sample size. These are the actual votes.

There IS no recount. The result with 99% in is a likely very narrow victory for Mitt Romney. I say likely, because who knows what that 1% does.

1st - Mitt Romney - 25% - 30,015
2nd - Rick Santorum - 25% - 30,007
3rd - Ron Paul - 22% - 26,219
4th - Newt Gingrich - 14% - 16,251
5th - Rick Perry - 11% - 12,604
6th - Michele Bachmann - 5% - 6,073
7th - Jon Huntsman - Less than 1% - 745
8th - Herman Cain - Less than 1% - 58

Rick Santorum's results surprised me, and I'll admit a major bias against his chances due to 2006. He had very little money, but he outworked most candidates in Iowa. He's legitimate now in this election. The question is if he can sustain it going into New Hampshire and South Carolina. Mitt Romney is going to go after him. That's what sunk Gingrich and dropped him to 4th. It may have an impact on Ron Paul as well.

Big winners:

1. Santorum - His late surge put him in the picture. He has a chance to be the "anti-Romney" candidate at the time it counts. He did this with almost no money. Eight votes away, and if there was a recount, could have made this even more interesting.

2. Romney - He wasn't contesting Iowa until late. He didn't bomb here. He didn't need to win here. New Hampshire is where he needs to win to stay around. His win here helps.

3. Paul - He's going to be a pain in the arse to the elites. Again. This year.

As for others, that doesn't mean they lost a chance for the nomination, but at best, they are going to have to fight against national momentum from Iowa with the next primary/caucuses. Some like Giuliani (2008) don't recover. At worst, they're done because of this. Those that lost here have added pressure in New Hampshire and South Carolina, as well as Florida.

The question is what happens next? Do the rest of them stay in, and if so, for how long? Perry said he's going to go back to Texas and think about the results and make a further decision.

Once again, Romney can't break that 30% barrier, although neither can anyone else. He wasn't expected to really in Iowa, but he's got nearly all of the establishment in his corner, Foxnews in his corner, the pundits in his corner, and most of all elite level of organization and monetary support. On paper, he should run away with this. This is the "strong" candidate. This is the guy who is supposed to supposedly beat Obama. He's now essentially tied another candidate out of nowhere, and was viewed as dead in the water. Every time a candidate implodes, another one rises in the polls against Romney. This time it is Santorum. Out of nowhere, he almost beats Romney. If your campaign is based on being "the electable" one, you better do what Bush did in 2000 after the early scare and not be John McCain in 2008.

This is going to possibly be a long primary season, especially if it narrows into a three way fight with three different bases. If Santorum can solidify himself as THE one single "anti-Romney" candidate who isn't Ron Paul, it will be an interesting primary, and there will be no "inevitable" nominee, regardless of the wishes of the establishment. Romney will have to at best, earn this. That's good. That's why we have primaries.

On the same note, for all the folks against Romney, nobody there has caught on. I wonder if Pawlenty wishes he did not drop out.

As for Santorum, my concern with him is that he got trounced in 2006 by 18% to Bob Casey Jr. He went too native and Virginia instead of Suburban Pittsburgh and it cost him. That's weakness, and a big one. However, he also won elections he had no business winning on paper. He won a Pittsburgh area district in 1990 which was democrat for 12 years, and survived redistricting. In 1994, his district went democrat by 10% to Mike Doyle (still in Congress) when he won a US Senate seat (easier than his congressional district) in an upset over an incumbent democrat. He won re-election in 2000. He's won tough elections in the past as well as lost. However, he's also an ex-senator, and we know how many US Senators have become presidents. Harding, Obama, Kennedy, Nixon, LBJ, Harrison, and Andrew Johnson are the only ones in the modern political system post 1860.

New Hampshire's next. Romney needs to probably run away with this one in his backyard. If not, he's in big trouble. Santorum needs to at least place here in less friendly territory for him as New Hampshire has a bit of a libertarian and paleo conservative streak. Ron Paul could surprise a lot of people here.

South Carolina is unfriendly to Romney in the primary so there isn't high expectations for him there. Santorum will have to do well there or Romney will probably win the entire thing Snyder style due to split votes. If Romney wins here, I think he's got it.

The actual race has begun. So far the official standings are:

Romney - 13 Delegates
Santorum - 12 Delegates
Rest - 0

Beware of big fish wannabes in small ponds

2011-12-20T18:05:00.000-05:00

The Detroit News has a story out that has my guard up. The title is this. Tea party groups work to unseat Stabenow. There already is a process for that. It's called a PRIMARY. We will decide the GOP nominee in August.

Invitations are being sent to all eight GOP candidates for a Jan. 14 debate at Central Michigan University, organizers announced. Two leaders from each qualified tea party group will be invited to participate in a Feb. 25 straw poll at CMU to determine who wins the tea party endorsement.

Uniting under the banner, Michigan 4 Conservative Senate, organizers say endorsing one candidate and rallying behind him is the best way to ensure a conservative candidate defeats Democratic incumbent Sen. Debbie Stabenow in November.

"It's just a way to take a pulse of tea party groups and encourage them to work together and rather than work apart," said Cindy Gamrat, an organizer for Michigan 4 Conservative Senate.

1. What is "qualified?"
2. Who are the designated "leaders?"
3. What is the "tea party?"

That type of talk gets my guard up. It looks like a power move to me.

Speaking for myself, I'm not "tea party." I agree with them more than I don't, but I do things my own way. I've been to a couple of RetakeourGov meetings and met some folks from Brighton Tea Party, but haven't finally contributed to any tea parties. I also am not a member of any leadership there, nor choose to be. I'll stick with being an occasional spectator.

The media talks about "Tea Party" being one singular thing. It isn't. There are hundreds of different local parties with their own personalities and opinions. Some of them are larger and more organized than others. Some are more ambitious when it comes to politics than others. I'm impressed with what I've seen from retakeourgov and their organization at the meetings I've seen. I haven't been to a Brighton Tea Party meeting, but they (along with a Milford group and Retakeourgov) did a good job with the senate candidate forum recently.

Most tea party members I know aren't trying to be "big fish in a small pond." Almost all of them never start out that way. Eventually many leaders or "lieutenants" in these organizations gain a following, get told how great they are, and start to believe their own press clippings. Many, not all, not even most. The good ones stay grounded.

However, this is politics. The definition of politics is "who gets what, when, and how." Power. Power brings out the worst in a lot of people. Politics is nasty for a reason, and nothing can get more nasty than internal political wars (along with local cities, school boards, and townships). Been there, done that, and weary of being involved in it again. I don't know the internals of this, but it's looking like a couple of power moves here.

I don't know much about Cindy Gamrat outside of her being a recent Indiana transplant to Plainwell in Southwest Michigan. Michigan 4 Conservative Senate is the website for this plan. This is modeled after Indiana's attempt to take out the center-left Dick Lugar in Indiana. Dick Lugar however is a Republican. Far leftist Debbie Stabenow is not.

So is this a "Stop Stabenow?" It's not. Stabenow will be quasi one on one (and some 3rd parties) against the Republican nominee whoever it is. This is about "stop Hoekstra." This is an attempt to have a coronation of the favorites of a few people. This is no different than the coronation attempt many establishment folks are trying to set up for Pete Hoekstra.

The question is who's the favored candidate.

"I think it's really disingenuous to have a group of people come together and anoint themselves as tea party leaders and take it further and endorse a candidate," said Patty McMurray, of Birmingham, co-founder of the Michigan Conservative Alliance, which wasn't invited to the straw poll.

Modeled after the tea party unification in Indiana, Michigan tea party organizers say it's important to not only vet the candidates but also the tea party groups themselves. Gamrat has been whittling down the original list of 120 conservative groups in Michigan to ensure their longevity and activeness, and that they are truly a tea party group, not affiliated with a national organization and not a political action committee. Those who qualify are allowed to have two members cast votes in the straw poll. McMurray's group was excluded because it's a PAC, Gamrat said.

Vetted by which people? WHO decides what is "legit?" McMurray's group is punished due to having a PAC? MANY tea party groups have PAC's. It's good organization. Anyone can form a PAC. It's not hard to set up, although it takes discipline to manage properly. Those with a PAC are doing good work. I think McMurray is attacked for supporting Hoekstra.

Currently she expects about 110 people to cast straw poll votes, representing 55 tea party groups statewide.

How large are these 55 groups? How are the votes weighted? Will the locals support this?

McMurray and fellow MICA co-founder, Leisa Audette, are both Hoekstra supporters and feel the event is rigged so Hoekstra doesn't win. Though he co-founded the Tea Party Caucus while in Congress, some fellow candidates have painted Hoekstra as not conservative enough and part of the Washington establishment.

It is rigged against Hoekstra, along as all candidates except one. It's a coronation attempt - the same thing that much of the establishment is doing for Hoekstra.

On a side note, this whole "Tea Party Caucus" in Congress is a joke. This is a case of politicians in DC calling themselves "Tea Party" and trying to pass themselves off as conservatives. I never bought into that talk. Talk is cheap. Votes are what matter, and Hoekstra has a long history of votes. Good and bad. He can stand by those votes and defend them, or admit mistakes if he's changed his mind on the issue. Debbie Stabenow can join the "Tea Party Caucus" if she wants. Does that make her tea party? No way. Talk is cheap. Deeds not words.

Randy Bishop, of the Northern Michigan Patriots, has been actively promoting the tea party convention and openly criticizes Hoekstra. He says unifying behind one candidate is necessary to avoid splitting the vote — as what happened in the governor's race last year leading to a Rick Snyder victory, he said.

"Just as much as much as we respect their choice not to participate we hope they would respect ours to participate," Bishop said of uninterested tea party groups.

By excluding those with a PAC? I'm interested in who Gamrat and Bishop are supporting. I'm more interested if it's the same person, and that is who they and a few others want to win.

The good and bad with tea parties is that many of them are new to politics. The good about that is that the old boys and girls club gets shaken up. The GOP establishment is largely as disliked as the democrats. They want to get involved and make a difference.

However, not all of the "establishment" is bad. Many of us have been involved 10, 20, or 30 years. Many of us are as conservative or more so as the tea party members. We also have a long history of inside baseball and power struggles and good intentions producing bad results. I've seen big fish and small pond syndrome. I've seen folks become yesman to become popular with big fish in small ponds.

That's a danger here I see with consolidation or quasi consolidation attempts. I understand the thought of trying to herd cats or tea party folks to supporting one candidate to stop a Snyder, but:

1. Who decides?
2. What's the process?
3. What's the criteria for the endorsement?

This is a dangerous game that can easilly become more about personalities than about issues. Certain people like to see themselves as power brokers. You get on the right PAC boards and you become "an important person." You can puff yourself up to sound even more important, and can have some yesman who follow you, tell you how great you are, and then try and take your spot in the future. There's also yesmen "leaders" who will automatically "lead" their group to follow whatever some big name wants. That's what I refer to as big fish in little pond syndrome. I've seen it over 11 years of involvement in PACs, C4's, Party, and office politics. Guess what. Most of those who think they are big names, really aren't that important. The ones who puff themselves up in the room, usually aren't important, and deep down, they know it.

I hope the tea parties (plural) stay about ideology, and less about personalities. THAT is their strength. Once they become about personalities and favorites, it's all downhill from there. The cost is respect.

As for this races, I think the primary needs to work itself out over the next few months before any push towards going behind one candidate. I understand the push. Snyder sucked, and still does suck. I didn't vote for him. Ever. Hoekstra I'd vote for over Stabenow easily. No hesitation. Candidates will rise and fall as they are vetted, organized, and make more statements. Our Senate primary is in August. Not February.

Polls

2011-12-19T19:56:00.000-05:00

One of the better undergrad political science classes I took at MSU focused on polling. There a lot of polls right now with a lot of different samples, in different areas, by different companies, with different results. Polls are educated guesses.

The first thing with a poll to look at is as follows. Is it scientific? If not, it's worthless. The next. Margin of error. Anything over 5% is worthless. Throw it out. If it's got a 3% or 4% margin of error, it's supposed to be considered good. That means if a poll says Gingrich 28, Romney 24, and real numbers are 32-20 or 24-28, that's good. What I mean by real numbers, is also the results from that day. Not January 3rd. If there's movement in that last week, a poll may look way off. It may actually be right - at that time.

Polls when done right, are a snapshot in time of a representative sample of the population covered. A good poll from December 19th, is a sample of the opinions of the population from December 19th. Between now and then, people may change their minds, or the undecideds may all move in one direction, or not. Generally, the larger the race, the better the polls. National is usually closer than statewide, which is closer than congressional. Congressional downward tends to often be quite inaccurate - to the point where state rep/senate races oftentimes don't even use polling. It can be way off. Not always. I was quite skeptical of some 2010 polling in some districts. To the person who told me that we were leading in some of those districts - you called it. I needed to see it to believe it, and I saw it in the actual results. The worst polling however is with issues. Those are almost never right. I've seen issues polled 60-40 in favor end up losing election time on a common basis. I chalk that up often to people lying to pollsters.

The biggest unfortunate aspect with public polls, and we ALL are guilty to some degree here, is with the bandwagon effect. We rely on these polls to shape our voting tactics. That's especially when we want to stop a candidate more than support one. People want to vote for a winner, or they want to stop a frontrunner. I look a whole bunch of polls and look at the momentum, trying to shift through the outliers.

Luckily in Michigan, we AREN'T first. We get to see real results besides opinion polls. Iowa. New Hampshire. South Carolina. Florida. Nevada. Colorado. They will vet candidates and make their decisions. Those are going to shift the polls here, as electability is more apt to be determined.

So when you see a poll, appreciate it for what it is if done right. A snapshot in time of a representative sample of the population covered. From the day the question was asked. That may or may not be the final numbers.

State House Redistricting - District 47 (HD-47)

2011-12-08T23:12:00.000-05:00

State House - District 47
Current Rep - Cindy Denby (R-Handy Twp)

2010 Results - Old District (47th)
Cindy Denby - 22,713
Garry Post - 10,001

This is one of two Livingston County based districts. It makes some minor changes and contracted due to population growth. The old district dropped Putnam and Hamburg Townships giving them to Bill Rogers. The new district picked up Marion and Oceola Townships from Bill Rogers. The rest of the district stayed the same.

The district actually got safer as Putnam and Hamburg Townships are two of the more marginal GOP areas in the county. I don't think that was due to partisan reasons as I never heard Bill Rogers complain about the new district in public or private, but due to geography. The 47th is more Howell/Fowlerville based, rather than Brighton based. Marion and Oceola Townships are more identified with the Howell area than the Brighton area. Hamburg is mostly the Pinckney and Brighton areas, and Putnam Township contains Pinckney. Redistricting keeps the areas mostly intact, outside of Southernmost Marion Twp. Cindy shouldn't have trouble in the new district, and neither should the next GOP nominee when it opens up.

	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Cohoctah Twp	1046	652	1698	394	61.60%	38.40%	23.20%
Conway Twp	956	689	1645	267	58.12%	41.88%	16.23%
Deerfield Twp	1329	912	2241	417	59.30%	40.70%	18.61%
Handy Twp	1922	1729	3651	193	52.64%	47.36%	5.29%
Hartland Twp	4689	3087	7776	1602	60.30%	39.70%	20.60%
Howell	2068	2160	4228	-92	48.91%	51.09%	-2.18%
Howell Twp	2022	1459	3481	563	58.09%	41.91%	16.17%
Iosco Twp	1090	756	1846	334	59.05%	40.95%	18.09%
Marion Twp	3302	2169	5471	1133	60.35%	39.65%	20.71%
Oceola Twp	3694	2428	6122	1266	60.34%	39.66%	20.68%
Tyrone Twp	3362	2236	5598	1126	60.06%	39.94%	20.11%
Unadilla Twp	860	811	1671	49	51.47%	48.53%	2.93%
Total	26340	19088	45428	7252	57.98%	42.02%	15.96%

	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Cohoctah Twp	1091	548	1639	543	66.56%	33.44%	33.13%
Conway Twp	1025	540	1565	485	65.50%	34.50%	30.99%
Deerfield Twp	1449	831	2280	618	63.55%	36.45%	27.11%
Handy Twp	2056	1225	3281	831	62.66%	37.34%	25.33%
Hartland Twp	4925	2329	7254	2596	67.89%	32.11%	35.79%
Howell	2499	1751	4250	748	58.80%	41.20%	17.60%
Howell Twp	2202	1134	3336	1068	66.01%	33.99%	32.01%
Iosco Twp	1071	468	1539	603	69.59%	30.41%	39.18%
Marion Twp	3137	1600	4737	1537	66.22%	33.78%	32.45%
Oceola Twp	3513	1768	5281	1745	66.52%	33.48%	33.04%
Tyrone Twp	3560	1917	5477	1643	65.00%	35.00%	30.00%
Unadilla Twp	919	641	1560	278	58.91%	41.09%	17.82%
Total	27447	14752	42199	12695	65.04%	34.96%	30.08%

Last St House	GOP	DEM	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Cohoctah Twp	819	291	1110	528	73.78%	26.22%	47.57%
Conway Twp	852	259	1111	593	76.69%	23.31%	53.38%
Deerfield Twp	1068	411	1479	657	72.21%	27.79%	44.42%
Handy Twp	1624	571	2195	1053	73.99%	26.01%	47.97%
Hartland Twp	3916	1328	5244	2588	74.68%	25.32%	49.35%
Howell	1624	871	2495	753	65.09%	34.91%	30.18%
Howell Twp	1632	571	2203	1061	74.08%	25.92%	48.16%
Iosco Twp	880	299	1179	581	74.64%	25.36%	49.28%
Marion Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Oceola Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Tyrone Twp	2609	1014	3623	1595	72.01%	27.99%	44.02%
Unadilla Twp	728	380	1108	348	65.70%	34.30%	31.41%
Total	15752	5995	21747	9757	72.43%	27.57%	44.87%

State House Redistricting - District 46 (HD-46)

2011-12-08T22:47:00.000-05:00

State House - District 46
Current Rep - Bradford Jacobsen (R-Oxford Twp)

2010 Results - Old District (46th)
Bradford Jacobsen - 24,363
David Jay Lillis - 9,241

This is probably the most Republican area in Oakland County after redistricting.

The old district covered Addison, Brandon, Groveland, Holly, Orion, Oxford, and Rose Townships. The new district drops Holly, Groveland, and Rose Townships, and picks up most of Oakland Twp.

This is a safe district going over 55% for McCain (according to Dave's Redistricting) and over 60% in most elections for whoever the GOP nominee is.

State House Redistricting - District 45 (HD-45)

2011-12-08T22:40:00.000-05:00

State House - District 45
Current Rep - Tom McMillin (R-Rochester Hills)

2010 Results - Old District (45th)
Tom McMillin - 24,974
Mary Ward - 11,815

This district contracted and got slightly less Republican, but should stay ours. The old district covered Rochester, Rochester Hills, and all of Oakland Township. It dropped part of Oakland Township but otherwise stays the same.

The new district is about a 51% McCain district, but Rochester and Rochester Hills is stronger GOP downticket. McCain won it narrowly. McMillin won it by a much bigger margin in 2008 than McCain did. However this area and the Troy area are two districts to keep an eye on for the future. They should stay ours, but they should not be taken for granted as Obama did very well there in 2008. Part of it was an aberration (I consider 08 AND 10 aberrations and floor/ceiling numbers) but it's still something to keep an eye on when it is an open seat.

State House Redistricting - District 44 (HD-44)

2011-12-08T22:26:00.001-05:00

State House - District 44
Current Reps - Eileen Kowall (R-White Lake)

2010 Results - Old District (44th)
Eileen Kowall - 25,714
Phil Fabrizio - 9,395

This district is still a safe West/North Oakland seat based in the White Lake area, although it changes some and contracted with population growth. The old district was made up of Clarkston, Highland Twp, Independence Twp, Springfield Twp, and White Lake Twp. The new district drops Clarkston and Independence Twp, and picks up Milford Twp from Bill Rogers and part of Waterford Twp from Gail Haines.

The district is a 54% McCain district according to Dave's Redistricting, so it is one of the safest in Oakland County.

State House Redistricting - District 43 (HD-43)

2011-12-08T22:18:00.000-05:00

State House - District 43
Current Reps - Gail Haines (R-Waterford Twp)

2010 Results - Old District (43rd)
Gail Haines - 17,294
Regina Strong - 9,064

This district is one that got much safer with redistricting. It picks up all of Independence Township, picks up Clarkstron, keeps Lake Angelus, drops part of Waterford, and drops its portion of West Bloomfield. This part of West Bloomfield is much more republican than the Lisa Brown district was, but was real close in the 2008 election. The old district was in the "Good enough to lose" category for democrats. They were competitive, but never won there, even in 2008 when it was a 900 vote race. Lake Angelus is republican, but small. Waterford is competitive. The portion of West Bloomfield was slightly Republican leaning even though the township is strongly democrat.

Independence Township makes this district likely safe or close to it. It's one of the most Republican areas in Oakland County. The Dave's Redistricting estimates has this district at 50.2% McCain, winning by 1,100 votes. Haines won a more competitive seat when it was open.

Cain taps out of the presidential race

2011-12-03T15:23:00.000-05:00

I'm not surprised about this. Cain's situation is a mess, regardless of whether it is true or not.

From Yahoo news

Plagued by allegations of sexual harassment and marriage infidelity, businessman Herman Cain announced Saturday that he is officially suspending his campaign for president of the United States.

"As of today, with a lot of prayer and soul searching, I am suspending my presidential campaign," Cain said at what was supposed to be new campaign headquarters in his hometown of Atlanta. "I am disappointed that it came to this point that we had to make this decision."

But he added, "Before you get discouraged, today I want to describe Plan B. ... I am not going away. I will continue to be a voice for the people." With that, he unveiled the headquarters of his new website, TheCainSolutions.com.

Cain, one of the first Republican candidates to launch his campaign for the White House last spring, spent most of his run as an obscure, low-polling candidate that was a hit at tea party rallies. But as the Republican field took shape, and it became clear that high-profile party hopefuls like Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie would not enter the race, Republicans seemed willing to give any of the candidates a fair shake

I don't know if Cain's guilty or not. I am suspicious of the claims to a degree because every single one of them was from his time at National Restaurant Association. Nothing was from his time at Godfather's or Pillsbury or his talk radio show. Maybe he was guilty. Maybe he was guilty only of pissing off some people. The harassment claims have just as much credence as Larry Sinclair's claim about being in the back seat with Obama snorting coke and doing other things (why doesn't the tabloid 'mainstream' leftist media give as much time to that?). They aren't proven and the credibility is in question. Is it possible? Yes. Likely? I'm skeptical. The affair? I still don't know, although that's more likely to be either proved or disproved if there was a 13 year claim. Politics is a nasty business at times. As the unofficial definition of politics from polysci 101 goes. "Politics is who gets what, when, and how." Politics is about power.

Whatever the case is, Cain is out. If you want to ruin a campaign, get some "friend of the program" to hire 5 or 6 women (or men if it is a woman candidate) at different times who have at least all crossed paths with a candidate to claim harassment or an affair. Have them set up news conferences. It doesn't matter if it is true. It can all be BS. In the court of public opinion, when there is multiple accusers, we are guilty till proven innocent. People believe there can't be a semi-coordinated attack from multiple people. They think "When there smoke, there's fire." If I had $100,000 (maybe less) - chump change in a presidential race, to spend on political black-ops, that I didn't have to report, I could set something like this up with any sort of time if I want to go down that road. It's not hard. All I'd need is a good scouting report to find the right targets. $20,000 each can buy a lot, and it doesn't even have to be a direct payment, or something all at once.

Dirty tricks are nothing new. It's a staple of Chicago style politics. Obama won his senate race by getting Jack Ryan (who had young kids) off the ballot because he didn't want his divorce file unsealed. Certain details sealed he didn't want out there. Neither did his ex-wife for that matter. It was Obama's cronies and his media allies.

It's a dirty business, and all of us involved at any level have to be ready for it.

How does Cain dropping out effect things? I don't know. This election has been crazy so far. I had Newt Gingrich as one of the big losers early on because of the straw poll results in Iowa. He's now the possible frontrunner. For now. That could change. I don't see anything for sure at least until Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina make their decisions.

My wild guess for now.

Advantage

Newt Gingrich. I would not be surprised if Cain backs Newt. They are friends, or at least were until the campaign. If there isn't some falling out that we don't know about, Newt may benefit from this.

Jon Huntsman. If Newt falters when his past comes back, then who?

Could go either way - Romney. At first glance, one could thing this narrows down the "anyone but Mitt" vote. Possible. Another school of thought thinks with Romney avoiding some of the news that it helps him. Some think he's the most electable. I disagree for a lot of reasons, but Cain's dropping could benefit him that way.

As far as the effects regarding Bachmann, Paul, and Perry, I don't see a lot of changes although some may give them a second look. Bachmann and Perry collapsed and have not recovered. Paul will get his share no matter what, but has a problem breaking the 10% ceiling.

We'll see what happens over the next month. I think I'm going to need to take a long shower after primary day (and the general). I had a bad feeling about this really since Mitch Daniels decided he wasn't running, compounded with Pawlenty dropping out after Iowa.

Who is the actual RINO? (2012 primaries)

2011-11-28T18:04:00.001-05:00

I have a hit or miss view when it comes to Joe Scarbrough. Sometimes he gets it dead on and sometimes he is way off. This one here is quite good.

From Politico

The insult du jour for Republican candidates this election cycle is being labeled a RINO, a Republican in Name Only. Unfortunately, the insult has been so overused lately it’s been rendered meaningless. The insult is even emptier because it is so detached from actual statements, campaign promises and voting records.

A candidate like Newt Gingrich can get away with supporting the biggest socialist scheme in American government over the past 30 years because he says nasty things about the press and calls Barack Obama a Marxist. Jon Huntsman, on the other hand, can have a stellar conservative record as Utah’s governor, be anti-abortion and adored by the NRA. But if he refuses to spit out angry screeds against Obama, he’s dismissed as a RINO, the facts be damned.

So as a public service to POLITICO readers, I, your humble conservative servant, have put together a “Who is the Real RINO?” test. based on voting records, candidate quotes and facts! (Shocking, I know.)

Good luck!

1. Who said, “I will preserve and protect a woman’s right to choose. I am not going to change pro-choice laws in any way”?

A. Mitt Romney

C. Newt Gingrich

C. Jon Huntsman

I got all but two of them right. Politico didn't line up page two properly, so one of the answered I picked Newt was Mitt. I also got the Rockefeller State Chair wrong.

It's biased, heavily towards Huntsman. However Newt is hit or miss, and we all know how Romney panders to every audience. Huntsman isn't AS BAD as his reputation which he got by taking a job as ambassador. That doesn't mean he's perfect. He's on board the global warming bandwagon and supported Cap and Trade in Utah which is an automatic two strikes against him. He spent too much as governor, although he did cut taxes. (Growth helped him in Utah) He supports civil unions for gays which I mildly oppose (tax money paying for it), but really don't have strong opinions about one way or the other on that issue. Many do. I do think he's the most electable in the general election however, and have said that since the beginning. I'm worried he's a Bush Republican, but we'll see.

Back in September, I was on board the Perry camp. It was an "anybody but Romney" move. I also didn't expect to see a collapse and implosion after the immigration comments and gaffes in debates over and over again. What I was looking for was the best alternative to Romney who can beat Obama. That's where my vote is going to go. Anybody but Romney who can beat Obama. Maybe Perry can recover. We'll see.

I'm not the only one in that boat. Especially post Obamacare/Romneycare, Romney, despite his money, organization, and an attempted coronation by the political class, so far can not bust through the ceiling. A lot of candidates are jockeying for position in this horse race, but Romney has in only one poll in November broke 30%. He did that once in October, three times in July, and once in June. At least 68% are looking for an alternative if you take his high recent numbers. That going off a bunch of polls showing similar results, not just a cherrypicked one. The 32% was high number.

In July, Bachmann and Romney were 1 and 2. Bachmann collapsed. In September, Perry consistently led. When Perry collapsed, Cain took the lead. When he collapsed, Newt's taking the lead. Newt Gingrich of all people is now the "anti-establishment" candidate. How is a former speaker and pundit non establishment? Because he's not Romney, the choice of the beltway. He was also their choice last time, more than McCain.

Some say the national polls don't matter. It's state polls. The real polls start in Iowa and New Hampshire in a little over a month. The state opinion polls aren't as often as national, but the results have generally been this:

Iowa (1-3) - Newt over Romney recently, before that Cain over Romney consistently. Ron Paul gets consistently 15%-20%. Romney peaks at 20%. Newt leads around 30%

New Hampshire (1-10) - Romney leads big. Almost all polls (one outlier has Newt leading) have him at around 40% A lot of Massachusetts transplants live in New Hampshire. Despite the reputation, polls had them voting for Bush twice. Other state transplants and natives costs Bush in 2004. The "Massholes" as they are often called are going to be deciding this one.

South Carolina (1-21) - The state that won it for Bush and McCain. Romney and Cain battled in October. This month it is Newt and Cain. Newt leads in the last poll, and Cain led before that. There's still a lot of movement in this state.

Florida (1-31) - No recent polls, but Romney and Cain have battled here for awhile.

Nevada and Maine (2-4) - Caucuses. Maine has no recent polling. October had one with a 6%+ margin of error with Cain over Romney, but 6% is almost worthless. Another October poll has Mitt and Cain battling in Nevada.

Colorado and Minnesota (2-7) - Nothing recent in either state before October.

Arizona and Michigan (2-28) - One recent poll in Arizona had Newt up 28-23 over Romney with Cain at 17% Michigan is Romney's old home and where his dad was governor in the 60's. He won here last time 39-30%. EPIC/MRA had a 6.1% margin of error poll that had him leading Newt 34-20. That could mean 40-14 or 28-26. Michigan has a quasi-open primary, so that will factor in.

March 6th is Super Tuesday. It'll be likely decided by then.

Back to Romney, why isn't he catching on? People don't trust him. People also do not trust political establishments. This goes back to the end of the Bush era with the spending, bailouts, and the like. Obama the Peter Principle in Chief is deeply unpopular, but so is much of the GOP establishment, and Romney is getting the brunt of it. Some of that goes back to his record as Massachusetts governor. Some of that is due to the consultant proxy battles between Romney/McCain/Palin in the post 2008 blowups. Much of that goes down to trust. People don't trust Romney. He campaigned and was a liberal, and all of a sudden "became a conservative" when he ran for president. I don't think so. Actions not words. People don't trust a tax raising, gun grabbing, Romneycare enacting individual. If organization and money equal automatic wins, Romney would have already won. He's king there, and he still trailing nationally.

There's a big opening for someone to take out Romney. However, somebody has to take it. Either someone new has to come in (Newt rising from the ashes, Huntsman, or maybe even Ron Paul, but he'll likely get his 5-15%) or someone who collapsed has to rehab enough to get a couple of upsets. Bachmann, Perry, Cain. That is what has to happen, and it may or may not happen. Much like 2008, nobody is running away with this. Too bad that Mitch Daniels didn't run.

Right now the search is on for who can beat Romney - but also can beat Obama. (for the record, I think Obama beats Romney easily unless Obama beats himself) The search is ongoing. Anybody but Romney in the primary.

State House Redistricting - District 42 (HD-42)

2011-11-25T16:36:00.000-05:00

State House - District 42
Current Reps - Bill Rogers (R-Genoa Twp)

2010 Results - Old District (66th)
Bill Rogers - 23,480
James Delcamp - 8,246

The new 42th is descended from the old 66th district in Livingston County. This district changed slightly with redistricting. It dropped Milford to the 44th district. It dropped Oceola Twp and Marion Twp to the 47th district with Cindy Denby. It picks up Hamburg and Putnam Townshops from Denby. This new district is much less republican than it was previously, but Brighton and Genoa Townships will carry this even in bad year barring a Don Sherwood level of disaster. I think the last time a dem won this district was maybe 1990 or more likely 1986 for Frank Kelley.

Bill Rogers has one more term left, then this district will open up.

	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Brighton	1984	2097	4081	-113	48.62%	51.38%	-2.77%
Brighton Twp	6589	4188	10777	2401	61.14%	38.86%	22.28%
Genoa Twp	6592	4502	11094	2090	59.42%	40.58%	18.84%
Green Oak Twp	5522	4395	9917	1127	55.68%	44.32%	11.36%
Hamburg Twp	6355	5922	12277	433	51.76%	48.24%	3.53%
Putnam Twp	2210	2157	4367	53	50.61%	49.39%	1.21%
Total	29252	23261	52513	5991	55.70%	44.30%	11.41%

	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Brighton	2226	1763	3989	463	55.80%	44.20%	11.61%
Brighton Twp	6977	3525	10502	3452	66.43%	33.57%	32.87%
Genoa Twp	7081	3608	10689	3473	66.25%	33.75%	32.49%
Green Oak Twp	5779	3618	9397	2161	61.50%	38.50%	23.00%
Hamburg Twp	6933	4933	11866	2000	58.43%	41.57%	16.85%
Putnam Twp	2417	1792	4209	625	57.42%	42.58%	14.85%
Total	31413	19239	50652	12174	62.02%	37.98%	24.03%

Last State House	GOP	DEM	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Brighton	1747	950	2697	797	64.78%	35.22%	29.55%
Brighton Twp	5585	1827	7412	3758	75.35%	24.65%	50.70%
Genoa Twp	5692	1806	7498	3886	75.91%	24.09%	51.83%
Green Oak Twp	4603	1888	6491	2715	70.91%	29.09%	41.83%
Hamburg Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Putnam Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	17627	6471	24098	11156	73.15%	26.85%	46.29%

State House Redistricting - District 41 (HD-41)

2011-11-25T16:22:00.000-05:00

State House - District 41
Current Reps - Open, Marty Knollenberg termed out

2010 Results - Old District (41st)
Marty Knollenberg - 22,751
Ed Spillers - 11,571

This is an open seat based in Troy and Clawson. It's unchanged with redistricting. Troy leans republican but is getting more competitive. Clawson is very competitive and voted for Gore, Bush, and Obama.

I'll be surprised if this seat flips, even in an open seat. However, it could be a darkhorse if 2012 is a disaster. I know there's been county commissioner seats competitive in this area in the past. This area does generally lean republican with Troy, McCain/Obama being a big exception.

	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Oakland County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Clawson	2998	3912	6910	-914	43.39%	56.61%	-13.23%
Troy	21230	21517	42747	-287	49.66%	50.34%	-0.67%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	24228	25429	49657	-1201	48.79%	51.21%	-2.42%

	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Oakland County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Clawson	3584	3471	7055	113	50.80%	49.20%	1.60%
Troy	24171	18175	42346	5996	57.08%	42.92%	14.16%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	27755	21646	49401	6109	56.18%	43.82%	12.37%

Last State House	GOP	Dem	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Oakland County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Clawson	2407	1677	4084	730	58.94%	41.06%	17.87%
Troy	20047	11571	31618	8476	63.40%	36.60%	26.81%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	22454	13248	35702	9206	62.89%	37.11%	25.79%

State House Redistricting - District 40 (HD-40)

2011-11-25T16:11:00.000-05:00

State House - District 40
Current Reps - Open or Lisa Brown (D-West Bloomfield), Chuck Moss termed out.

2010 Results - Old District (39th)
Lisa Brown - 17,137
Lois Shulman - 17,051

Old District (40th)
Chuck Moss - 27,622
Julie Chandler - 13,346

This district become much more potentially competitive. The old district covers Birmingham, Bloomfield Hills, Bloomfield Township, Keego Harbor, Sylvan Lake, Orchard Lake, and Southfield Twp. It drops Keego Harbor, Sylvan Lake, and Orchard Lake to the 29th District, Southfield Township to the 35th District, and adds Eastern West Bloomfield to the district.

Bloomfield Hills and Bloomfield Township are solidly Republican. Birmingham leans our way but can be competitive. This portion of West Bloomfield is extremely democrat. Dave's Redistricting has this seat at a little over 52% for Obama. On paper, this district is like the new 39th in partisanship, but I think this is the weaker district now. Bloomfield Hills and Bloomfield Township's population demographics are slightly less favorable than Commerce Township.

I do think this district should stay ours, but I'm not going to count this one for us in 2012 just yet.

State House Redistricting - District 39 (HD-39)

2011-11-25T16:03:00.000-05:00

State House - District 39
Current Reps - Open or Lisa Brown (D-West Bloomfield)

2010 Results - Old District (39th)
Lisa Brown - 17,137
Lois Shulman - 17,051

Redistricting split West Bloomfield more as a East/West split instead of a North/South split so I'm not sure if Brown is in the 39th or 40th district.

This race has been down to the wire the last three elections. West Bloomfield is usually solidly democrat and Commerce Township is usually solidly Republican. The new district adds Wixom and takes slightly less of West Bloomfield. Wixom used to be leaning republican, but went democrat in 2008 due to a high turnout in the apartments area. Wixom is split politically with the republican north and the democrat south.

Dave's redistricting has this seat at about 52% Obama. I think the Dem/GOP numbers in reality are lower than that. In an "average" year, West Bloomfield is about 56% dem overall and Wixom probably 54-55% GOP. The parts of West Bloomfield dropped from the old district run about 65%+ Obama. I wouldn't be surprised if the GOP takes this seat in 2012.

State House Redistricting - District 38 (HD-38)

2011-11-25T15:36:00.000-05:00

State House - District 38
Current Reps - Hugh Crawford (R-Novi)

2010 Results - Old District (38th)
Hugh Crawford - 22,873
Jeffrey Gedeon - 10,998

This district is one of the more Republican leaning districts in Oakland County, although not quite as much as it used to be. The new district contracts some because of population growth. It covers Novi (city/Twp), Lyon Twp, Walled Lake, South Lyon, and the Oakland County portion of Northville. It drops competitive Wixom.

Obama came close in that big 2008 year, but even McCain won this district. It would take a perfect storm for this district to flip.

	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Lyon Twp	4120	3009	7129	1111	57.79%	42.21%	15.58%
Northville	1127	1001	2128	126	52.96%	47.04%	5.92%
Novi	13264	14397	27661	-1133	47.95%	52.05%	-4.10%
Novi Twp	52	57	109	-5	47.71%	52.29%	-4.59%
South Lyon	2983	2712	5695	271	52.38%	47.62%	4.76%
Walled Lake	1517	1823	3340	-306	45.42%	54.58%	-9.16%
Total	23063	22999	46062	64	50.07%	49.93%	0.14%

	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Lyon Twp	4082	2274	6356	1808	64.22%	35.78%	28.45%
Northville	1269	866	2135	403	59.44%	40.56%	18.88%
Novi	14484	10612	25096	3872	57.71%	42.29%	15.43%
Novi Twp	67	40	107	27	62.62%	37.38%	25.23%
South Lyon	3191	2236	5427	955	58.80%	41.20%	17.60%
Walled Lake	1664	1580	3244	84	51.29%	48.71%	2.59%
Total	24757	17608	42365	7149	58.44%	41.56%	16.87%

Last State House	GOP	DEM	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Lyon Twp	3638	1255	4893	2383	74.35%	25.65%	48.70%
Northville	1057	467	1524	590	69.36%	30.64%	38.71%
Novi	11987	6072	18059	5915	66.38%	33.62%	32.75%
Novi Twp	56	28	84	28	66.67%	33.33%	33.33%
South Lyon	2461	1055	3516	1406	69.99%	30.01%	39.99%
Walled Lake	1223	809	2032	414	60.19%	39.81%	20.37%
Total	20422	9686	30108	10736	67.83%	32.17%	35.66%