Saturday, April 23, 2005

State Senate - District 13

State Senate - District 13

2006 Contest
Republican Candidates – John Pappageorge (Troy), Shelley Goodman Taub (Bloomfield Hills), Elizabeth Woolcock (Royal Oak)
Democrat Candidates – Andy Levin (Royal Oak)

Current Rep – Shirley Johnson (R-Royal Oak)

2002 Results
Shirley Johnson – 63.15%
Colleen Levitt – 36.85%

Presidential results:
Bush – 51.98%
Kerry – 47.01%

Republican Michigander’s prognosis – Tossup

District covers:
Oakland County: - Berkley, Birmingham, Bloomfield Hills, Bloomfield Township, Clawson, Madison Heights, Royal Oak, and Troy.

This is the most affluent district in the state. I have a bad feeling about this district. Originally, I was going to call it slightly leaning republican, but I’m going to just call this one a tossup. The democrats recruited probably the 2nd best candidate they could get. (David Woodward would be the strongest)

This is an open seat vacated by Shirley Johnson. The Democrats smell blood here with the 2000 vs 2004 trends, especially in this part of Oakland County. While Bush actually gained overall in Oakland County, it was not the case in this district. Berkley, Birmingham, Bloomfield Township, Bloomfield Hills, Troy, and especially Royal Oak all took leftist swings in 2004. Only Madison Heights and Clawson (which flipped to Bush in 04) moved to the right.

They recruited a candidate with a golden last name in this part of Oakland County. Andy Levin is Sander Levin’s son. Levin has a free pass in the primary. The GOP primary is a three way battle between former rep John Pappageorge, current rep Shelley Goodman Taub, and Elizabeth Woolcock. State Rep Bob Gosselin was in, but withdrew from the race.

There is a large RINO population here, so there are two keys here. Who can gain enough conservative and moderate votes here without irking the RINOS? Who can gain enough RINO votes here without irking the conservatives and moderates? It is a balancing act, and whoever wins the primary needs to strike the right balance. Personally, I would run a libertarian leaning candidate here, and take my chances with the gun grabbers and “municipal league” types. That will not alienate the pro-2a and fiscal conservatives, and may pick up most of the moderates in this current political climate.

This will be a very tough race this year.

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