Saturday, April 23, 2005

State Senate - District 19

State Senate - District 19

2006 Contest
Republican Candidates – Al Cavasin (Concord), Elizabeth Fulton (Battle Creek)
Democrat Candidates – Mark Schauer (Battle Creek)

Current Rep – Mark Schauer (D-Battle Creek)

2002 Results
Mark Schauer – 55.14%
Mickey Mortimer – 44.86%

Presidential results:
Bush – 53.00%
Kerry – 45.94%

Republican Michigander’s prognosis – Slightly Leans Democrat

District covers:
All of Calhoun County
Jackson County – Blackman Township, Columbia Township, Concord Township,
Hanover Township, Henrietta Township, Jackson, Liberty Township, Napolean Township, Parma Township, Pulaski Township, Rives Township,
Sandstone Township, Spring Arbor Township, Springport Township, Tompkins Township, Waterloo Township

This is a 53% Bush district, so we could have a race here. That said, Mark Schauer is a very strong incumbent who won big in 2002 against a good candidate in Mickey Mortimer. I am not familiar with either Cavasin or Fulton, so I do not know how strong of a candidate we have there. Schauer may have dodged a bullet with Mike Nofs running for re-election instead of challenging Schauer.

Calhoun County is a true swing county voting for Granholm, Schauer, and Gore on one hand, and Bush, Mike Nofs, and Joe Schwarz on the other. Jackson County (outside of the City) is reliably Republican, although narrowly. Summit Township and Grass Lake are not in this district either, so that advantages the democrats.

Schauer will be tough to beat, but this could be a real sleeper race this November if one of the two republican candidates catches fire. John Kerry couldn’t break 46% here, so it is certainly winnable. For now, this slightly leans democrat based on my own name recognition.


AuH2ORepublican said...

I'll take your word on Mickey Mortimer having been a strong candidate for the GOP, but his name is right out of an early Walt Disney cartoon (when Disney first drew Mickey Mouse, he wanted to call him Mortimer Mouse, but was talked out of it; a character named Mortimer Mouse appeared as Mickey's foil in a later cartoon).

Republican Michigander said...

I never even thought of that when I wrote it.

Mickey was a three term state rep in the Jackson area.