Saturday, April 23, 2005

State Senate - District 21

State Senate - District 21

2006 Contest
Republican Candidates – Ron Jelinek (Three Oaks)
Democrat Candidates – Valerie Janowski (Dowagiac)

Current Rep – Ron Jelinek (R-Portage)

2002 Results
Ron Jelinek – 64.81%
Art Toy – 35.19%

Presidential results:
Bush – 54.72%
Kerry – 44.28%

Republican Michigander’s prognosis – Safe Republican

District covers:
All of Berrien, Cass, and Van Buren Counties outside of Antwerp and Paw Paw Townships

Outside of the Benton Harbor area in Berrien County, Dowagiac in Cass County, and Covert/South Haven in Van Buren County, this is a fairly solid GOP district. About 60% of the district is in Berrien County, which would be 60% GOP+ without Benton Harbor/Township (95% and 70% democrat). It still is 55% GOP despite Benton Harbor. Cass County is solidly GOP, and Van Buren County is very marginal GOP, but has only ¼ of the vote.

This is a safe district unless proven otherwise for Ron Jelinek, who won big here four years ago. There aren’t enough democrats in Benton Harbor to make up for St Joe, Lincoln Twp, and Coloma.

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