Saturday, April 02, 2005

State Senate - District 6

State Senate - District 6

2006 Contest
Republican Candidates – Laura Toy (Livonia)
Democrat Candidates – Glenn Anderson (Westland)

Current Rep – Laura Toy (R-Livonia)

2002 Results
Laura Toy – 54.16%
Eileen DeHart – 45.84%

Presidential results:
Kerry – 51.76%
Bush – 47.09%

Republican Michigander’s prognosis – Slight edge to Republicans

District covers:
Wayne County:
Livonia, Garden City, Redford Township, and Westland

This is a very competitive district, and I would be calling this a toss-up if this were an open district. State Rep. Laura Toy won a tough race in 2002 against another state rep in Eileen DeHart. It became a “homer” race, which favors Laura Toy.

John Kerry did win the district, and took 44.64% in Livonia, 54.31% in Garden City, 57.44% in Redford, and 57.87% in Westland. DeHart took 61.69% in Westland and 54.98% in Garden City, but only 50.43% in Redford, and lost Livonia badly getting 33.58% there. Almost half of the 2002 votes came from Livonia, to Toy won by a solid margin. Toy also made major inroads into neighboring Redford, which has treaded democrat lately.

Westland was a larger percentage of the vote in 2004, and that factored into Kerry’s district win. Livonia was slightly over 1/3 of the vote there. Redford and Garden City combined for slightly less than 1/3 of the vote, and other “slightly less than 1/3” portion is Westland.

Due to Westland and Garden City being solidly democrat, and Redford’s increasingly democrat tilt, I expect the democrats to take another shot at this district. Livonia’s marginally GOP, and is the base of this district. I think Laura Toy will survive since she over performs here, but I am not taking this race for granted. Democrats have won Livonia before, especially at the local level. Granholm lives right next door to Livonia in Northville, so she is going to target this race.

Overall, there’s a slight edge to the Republicans here, but not by much. The dems are again going to Westland. This time Glenn Anderson, who is termed out as a state rep.

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