Sunday, May 01, 2005

State House - District 1

State House - District 1

2006 Contest
Republican Candidates – Ed Gaffney (Grosse Pointe Farms)
Democrat Candidates – Timothy Bledsoe (Grosse Pointe Farms), JeDonna Dingis (Detroit), William L Miller (Detroit)

Current Rep – Ed Gaffney (R-Grosse Pointe Farms)

2004 Results
Ed Gaffney – 57.03%
C. Harrison – 40.58%

Presidential results:
Kerry – 52.69%
Bush – 46.49%

Republican Michigander’s prognosis – Strongly Leans Republican

District covers:
Grosse Pointe, Grosse Pointe Farms, Grosse Pointe Park, Grosse Pointe Township,
Grosse Pointe Woods, Harper Woods, and part of Detroit.

This district went for Kerry, but usually leans republican at the state rep level and won’t vote for a Detroit democrat. Most of the district is affluent, and ¼ of the district is part of Detroit’s east side.

Four of the Grosse Pointes are solid Republican (all except GP Park). Those comprise about 40% of the district. Grosse Point Park is a swing area going for Bush in 2000 and Kerry in 2004. Harper Woods is solidly democrat on the federal level, but sometimes competitive in a state rep race. Gaffney won it in 2004. The Detroit part of the district is 87% Democrat.

Ed Gaffney’s won here twice and should win a third time, but there may be a major battle for this seat in 2008. The Grosse Pointes are stagnant in population, and this district may have to take in more of Detroit. Many Detroit Democrats are moving into Grosse Pointe Park as well, which is one of the reasons it flipped to Kerry in 04. If GPP starts to go the way of Southfield, this district could flip to a democrat from the Pointes. Kerry won the district by 6%, so I am calling this a lean republican district, and not safe. That said, I expect Gaffney to win again.

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