Wednesday, August 10, 2005

Part Two - Michigan House preview (D30-60)

District 30 – Utica, Central and Northern Sterling Heights. – Macomb County - Currently Republican

I do not have this one broken down by precinct, but President Bush won this district. I am estimating by a slightly lower percentage as Tory Rocca’s victory. Tory Rocca replaced his dad Sal. He won with 53.85% of the vote. Utica went 51% for Bush, and Sterling Heights as a whole went 51.28%. I expect an easier win in 2006 for Rocca.

District 37 – Farmington Hills and Farmington – Oakland County - Currently Democrat

Farmington Hills is becoming a democrat town. It used to be republican, but now has gone for Gore, Granholm, and Kerry. Kerry won Farmington Hills with 52.92% of the vote and won the district with 52.31% (Farmington itself is marginally republican). Rocky won here three times in 96, 98, and 2000, so it is not impossible for Republicans to win here, but the current state rep here is one of the two most liberal in the entire Michigan House. Aldo Vagnozzi. He won with 55.02% in the last election, has one more election in 06, and then this seat opens up.

District 39 – Commerce Township, most of West Bloomfield Township – Oakland County - Currently Republican

This was a big win for the GOP in 2004. While Commerce Township is 60% Republican, West Bloomfield has most of the population. It is increasingly democrat, and bound to be more so as it becomes more Jewish. David Law won this open seat with 52.40% against Geoffrey Fieger’s former partner Michael Schwartz in an increasingly democrat district. John Kerry won the district with 50.31%, and Granholm did even better here getting almost 60% in West Bloomfield to Kerry’s 55%. I expect a major fight here in 2006 as demographics are going to make this harder to win.

District 51 – Argentine Twp, Atlas twp, Fenton City and Twp, Grand Blanc City and Twp, Linden City, Mundy Twp – Genesee County – Currently Republican.

Dave Robertson beat an incumbent to win this redistricted seat in 2002. A strong democrat with a similar name (Robinson) in challenged him in 2004, and Robertson won it with 54.59%. President Bush won the district with 53.90%. However, there is still a strong democrat tradition at the local level in many parts of Genesee County. President Bush did well here winning every township outside of Mundy, but there still could be some battles here in the future. The good news for the GOP is that Fenton is booming, and is strongly republican. The area to watch is Grand Blanc Twp, which is the most populous area in the district. Gore, Granholm, and Bush all won it.

District 52 - Pt Ann Arbor City, Ann Arbor Twp, Bridgewater Twp, Chelsea City, Dexter Twp, Freedom Twp, Lodi Twp, Lyndon Twp, Manchester Twp, Northfield Twp, Saline City, most of Saline Twp, Scio Twp, Sharon Twp, Sylvan Twp, Webster Twp – Washtenaw County – Currently Democrat.

The democrats took this open seat in 2004, partly thanks to a strong candidate, and thanks to an extremely strong democrat turnout in urban Washtenaw County, which absolutely hates President Bush. Pam Byrnes ran for this seat and narrowly lost to redistricted incumbent Gene DeRossett in 2002. She won the open seat with 54.66% of the vote. John Kerry won it with 54.39% of the vote.

The Republicans won twelve areas, and the democrats four, but it was not enough. Most of the townships in this district are Republican, but not enough so to offset the major democrat areas of this district. Ann Arbor’s second ward was at one time “Republican,” but it was almost pro-Kerry (about 70%) than some of the other areas of the district (which as a whole is 76.51% Kerry). About 1/5 of the district voters are from the city of Ann Arbor. It is the more populous area of the district. The second most populous is Scio Township next door to Ann Arbor. It is very affluent and staunchly democrat, but was even more democrat than normal in 2004. John Kerry received 59.10% of the vote in Scio. Ann Arbor Township and Chelsea were the other democrat areas. Ann Arbor Township was 62% dem, and Chelsea 52.76%. The rest of the district is more rural or exurban. The only way the GOP can win here again is by a high rural turnout, and low turnout in Scio and Ann Arbor. In order of most GOP to most Democrat – Bridgewater Twp (60.51%), Sharon Twp, Saline Twp, Lodi Twp, Webster Twp, Sylvan Twp, Freedom Twp, Northfield Twp, Dexter Twp, Lyndon Twp, Manchester Twp, Saline City, Chelsea City, Scio Twp, Ann Arbor Twp, Ann Arbor City(part that’s in the district, about 70%).

District 55 – Bedford twp, Dundee twp, Erie twp, Milan City and Twp, Petersburg City, Summerfield twp, and Whiteford twp in Monroe County. Pittsfield twp, part of Saline Twp, part of Milan City, and York Twp in Washtenaw County - Currently Democrat.

Thanks to a major turnout in Pittsfield Twp over in Washtenaw County (Between Ann Arbor and Ypsilanti), Democrat Kathy Angerer defeated incumbent Matt Milosch with 50.33% of the vote. John Kerry won the district with 50.22% of the vote, again due to Pittsfield, which had a 3432 vote spread and a 60.73% vote for Kerry. Milosch and Bush won the Monroe portions of the district, but Washtenaw was the difference maker.

About 3/5 of the population in this district is in Monroe County and 2/5 is in Washtenaw. Bedford Township is the most populous in this district and is on the Ohio border near Toledo. It is marginally republican. Outside of Bedford and Pittsfield townships, this is mostly rural and small town. Areas in order of most republican to most democrat – Whiteford Twp(59.20%), York Twp, Saline Twp, Summerfield Twp, Dundee Twp, Bedford Twp, Petersburg City, Milan Twp, Milan City(Washtenaw part), Milan City (Monroe Part), Erie Township, Pittsfield Twp(60.73%).

District 56 – Ash Twp, Berlin Twp, Exeter Twp, Frenchtown Twp, Ida Twp, LaSalle Twp, London Twp, Luna Pier Monroe City and Twp, Raisinville Twp – Monroe County – Currently Democrat

This is the other Monroe County based district and covers most of the democrat leaning areas of the county. Rep Randy Richardville won here twice after redistricting anyway, and John Manor came within 539 votes of winning this district as an open seat. John Kerry carried it with 50.18% of the vote. Bush won six of the areas, and Kerry won five. Frenchtown Twp and Monroe City are the two most populous areas, and both are democrat. The good news is that Monroe County as a whole went for Bush and Posthumus, and may be starting to turn. It is a blue collar largely social conservative and should be ours. In order from most republican to most democrat – Ida Twp (57.57%), Raisinville Twp, LaSalle Twp, Exeter Twp, Ash Twp, Berlin Twp, Monroe Twp, Frenchtown Twp, Monroe City, Luna Pier City, London Twp (54.87%).

District 57 – Most of Lenawee County – Currently Democrat

This was a case of the right last name. Dudley Spade won this open seat with an astounding 58.81% of the vote. His brother Doug was the term limited state rep. While Spade won the district, so did President Bush with 54.55%. Bush also won every area in Lenawee County except the city of Adrian where Kerry got 53.89%. As long as Dudley votes moderate to conservative on social issues, he should be safe, but this is a prime pickup chance for the GOP in 2010 unless there is another D. Spade running.


spender said...

I am planning to run against Aldo Vagnozzi in the 2008 Election. I will have completed my Ph.D. in Education (specialist in Ed. Policy & Politics) that same year and my wife & I will be moving back to Farmington to run for office. I am well connected and known in the Farmington/Hills area and have the ability to beat Aldo Vagnozzi. If you can help or assist me in planning please do so. God Bless to you Republicans & Dittoheads! - Sean

Dan said...

Good luck. Aldo's a nice guy, but a bigtime leftist.