Thursday, January 03, 2008

Game 1 over, Huckabee, Obama winners

(All as of 11PM)

I'm really not surprised at this. From CNN 100% isn't in yet, but it's not that close.

These are caucuses, not primaries. I'm not positive on this, but I think the precinct delegates are the voters, at least on the democrat side. I may be wrong on that, but that's how I interpret the results. 910 for the winner seems awful small otherwise, and I have a hard time believing that Kucinich would not get at least one vote in Iowa City or Ames. On the GOP side, it's closer to a closed primary, but not quite as open as that as it is a caucus.

GOP: 78% Reporting
Name Votes %
Huckabee - 35,342 - 34%
Romney - 26,067 - 25%
Thompson - 13,805 - 13%
McCain - 13,509 - 13%
Paul - 10,006 - 10%
Giuliani - 3576 - 4%
Hunter - 454 - 1%

Dem: 96% reporting
Name State Delegates %
Obama - 922 - 38%
Edwards - 732 - 30%
Clinton - 721 - 29%
Richardson - 52 - 2%
Biden - 23 - 1%
Uncommitted - 3 - less than 1%
Dodd - 1 - less than 1%
Kucinich - 0
Gravel - 0

Back to the GOP side, I figured Huckabee would win big. Iowa strikes me as a social moderate to conservative state and an economic moderate to liberal state. Dukakis won here big over the farm troubles in the 80's. Ethanol is a big.

McCain's fighting for 3rd place surprised me as he's not an ethanol fan. It hurt him bad in 2000 here. Giuliani must have conceded the state with his 2nd to last place finish. Romney's 2nd place showing doesn't surprise me in a caucus type of setup where the organization determines much of the vote. Romney's campaign is one of the best organized in the country. Thompson and Paul finished about where I expected in Iowa as well.

But Huckabee won IMO for three reasons. One is the economic populism. In Iowa, that's an advantage. Another is the social issues. There is no doubt to where Huckabee stands on those issues. Northwest Iowa is one of the most conservative areas in the entire country (Dutch area, think Zeeland/Hudsonville MI). In a caucus, all that is magnified. Third is agribusiness. Huckabee is from an agricultural state. In Arkansas, it's chicken production. In Iowa it's corn.

Game 1 is over. The question is now what happens in the rest of the games. Wyoming and New Hampshire are up next.

Standings after 1 (As of 11PM)
GOP: (Projected)
Huckabee 14
Romney 9
Thompson 3
McCain 3
Paul 2
Rest 0

Dem (Projected)
Obama 16
Clinton 15 (Not sure why Clinton is ahead of Edwards)
Edwards 14
Rest none

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