Tuesday, August 12, 2008

Elections Report and November Preview

Nothing new regarding the write in candidates who are trying to get on the November ballot. That could make things interesting in Hamburg and Green Oak.

Look at detailed numbers in the primary.
47th District - Cindy Denby won every muncipality except Hartland. Charlie Aberstauri won every Hartland precinct except one where he tied for the lead. He's a school board member there, and Hartland has avoided a lot of major controversial news stories, so that is not a real shocker.
66th District - Bill Rogers won all precincts except Genoa1. I think that was Corosanite's home precinct. Jason won there. On the democrat side, Donna Anderson won all Livingston County Precincts over Tom Crawford. I'm not sure about the Milford side, but Anderson won Milford as well.

County Commish4 - This was a close race between Fowlerville's Douglas Helzerman and Iosco's Ronald Van Houten. Handy Township went big for Helzerman, but the rest of the county away from his Fowlerville base went for Van Houten. This was a homer based vote.

Brighton Township - Tom Murphy won all precincts. Lana Theis and Geri Harmon split most of the precincts close to 50/50, but precincts 3 and 8 carried the day.

In Hamburg Township, the winners of the officer positions won all precincts except in the Supervisor's race. Cindy Pine won Hamburg 1 and Hamburg 7.

In Green Oak, one of the incumbent trustees had the lowest number of votes. I'm not sure why, since I haven't heard anything particulary negative about him. George Kilpatrick. Then it dawned on me. Did he lose because of an unfortunate last name, sharing it with the Detroit mayor? I voted for him, not that it matted all that much. I hope it wasn't because of his name. That's a dumb reason to vote for or against someone.

For November, the contested races in Livingston with candidates on the ballot are these:
State Rep:
47th District - Cindy Denby v Scott Lucas
This one looks over before it starts. Scott Lucas already has a failure to file notice against him for not turning in his pre-primary report. This looks like a repeat of Hune-Senkowski in 04 unless things change rather quickly. Unforced sloppy errors. It goes along with the too many men on the ice/field penalties in hockey and football. Games are lost because of that. So are jobs. Ask Don "Grapes" Cherry back from his days with the Boston Bruins.

66th District - Bill Rogers v Donna Anderson
While Bill Rogers is the odds on favorite to win, I don't expect Anderson to make the mistakes that Lucas is making. Her reports are by the book, and even got the often missed "Late Contribution Reports" in. I expect Bill to win, but Anderson may make him work for it. I don't expect Bill to take this race for granted though, going back to a 2002 race that wasn't at all close in the end, but scary enough on the ground for a few of our campaign junkies to notice.

County Commission 1 - Maggie Jones v Pam Green
That district is probably the most Republican in the county. Green isn't a bad candidate, but that's tough going there. There are a couple of districts where I think the dems could make a decent run, but not this one barring a major mistake by the incumbent AND a great run by Green.

County Commission 3 - Dave Domas v Adrian Campbell Montgomery
That district is probably the 2nd or maybe 3rd most Republican in the county. I expect Montgomery to make a spirited run, but being tied with the infamous Michael Moore is not good for one's political prospects around here. I mean, it's Michael Moore. Unless she distances herself from him and becomes more than a star in one of his psuedo-documentaries, this one is already over.

Green Oak:
Clerk - Michaek Sedlak v Walt Ernst
Trustee - Tracey Edry, Wally Qualls, Rollin Green, and Richard Everett v Anna Ernst and JoAnn Murphy

Green Oak is fairly competitive compared to most of Livingston County. Democrats have won here in the past, although 2006 aside (When the GOP won narrowly), there has been a right turn here. The father and daughter Ernst team as well as Jo Ann Murphy are legitament candidates and will likely get a lot of Sierra Club support as they are stronger in Green Oak than they are elsewhere.

Handy Township:
Trustee - Gordon Munsell and Erik Fraser v Robert Redinger (Incumbent)
This one could be interesting. Redinger had a free pass in 06 and won unopposed. He's also backed a Republican in Cindy Denby for state rep. That's not because Cindy is a liberal republican. She's not. She is the current Handy Township Supervisor though and they have worked together in the past and are part of a tight knit community. Fowlerville has a large number of conservative independent voters. Will they split their tickets. I think Redinger has a shot if straight tickets don't do him in. His problem is that a major league leftist is on top of the ticket. The Fowlerville area is tight knit, and that's in his favor.

Putnam Township:
Trustee - Richard McCloskey (current Treasurer) and Keith Chambers v Kevin Dobis (Incumbent) and Frank Gazdecki
Putnam has it's own local politics separate from a lot of the partisan battles. "Keep Putnam Rural" was a bipartisan ticket in 2004. I expect those issues to dominate again in 08. Putnam Township is historically competitive as well, no matter how lopsided the top of the ticket can be as John Kerry didn't effect the local ticket here.

Unadilla Township
Trustee - Julie Weiland and Warren Krueger (Incumbent) v Lori Cowan (Incumbent) and Kelly Schmidt
I don't know much about Unadilla Township (Gregory) except that it is rural and usually competitive. Krueger and Cowan are the likely winners here.

There are two other interesting races. Jay Drick is running again for judge against Theresa Brennan. There was some rumbling about Brennan being asked to run for the Supreme Court justice position, but last I heard secondhand is that this is not going to happen. I'm glad Jay is running, because at worst case scenario, she would have to give up her district seat if she is running for that spot. Politics are limited on a district court level. At appeals court or supreme court, politics should be limited, but we all know that is not the case.

Howell Schools elections are now in November. Three positions are open. Eight people are running for two positions, and two people are running for the partial term.

The candidates for the positions:
4 year terms:
Michael Yenshaw - Appointed incumbent
Mark Michaels - Appointed incumbent
Bob Parker - former judicial candidate and former Howell mayor
Patricia Howle
Doug Moore, who ran in 2007
Olav “Kris” Kauserud
Ann Routt
Phillip Arrington

For the two year terms
Dan Fondriest - Appointed incumbent, ran in 07
Debi Drick

This race in Howell schools should be different than others. First, it is in November and the turnout will be much higher. Secondly, with a new super in charge of administration there, the dynamics are different. That super was approved unanimously.

The thing to remember is that there are two races here. One for the regular seats and a seperate election for the partial term. Either Fonriest or Drick will win that seat. I'm interested in who the Concerned Taxpayers Group's PAC endorses. I probably won't be on the panel this November due to time constraints, but I still trust their judgment. I haven't followed Howell schools as much though since moving out of the district.

While most races are decided already, there are some contests here in the fall. The most contested should be the Howell Schools race along with Putnam and Unadilla contests.


Meg said...

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It looks like a great resource.

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