Sunday, November 01, 2009

Election 09

Tuesday is the first semi-major election day since Mr. Obama and his people took over Washington. There are no federal races outside of the special election in New York's 23rd district, however, so other dynamics besides the federal issues do matter.

The biggest ones to watch are Virginia and New Jersey. Their state elections are Tuesday. Virginia usually shifts opposite of the white house in its state government. Doug Wilder was governor when GHW Bush was president. George Allen and Jim Gilmore were governors during the Clinton years. Mark Warner and Tim Kaine during the GW Bush years. In New Jersey, Jon Corzine, gazillionaire leftist democrat and Goldman Sachs crony is in big trouble. It IS New Jersey, so I suspect he will survive and win at the last minute because it is so democrat leaning of a state, but we'll see what happens there.

In Michigan, we have the special election for the 19th district. It's a good national bellwether district, so it is watched closely. It went for Gore, Granholm twice, Bush once, and Obama. Mark Schauer won it first with the original borders. The second winner will be either Mike Nofs or Marty Griffin. Nofs isn't as fiscally conservative as I am, but he's a lot better than tax raising Griffin, and Schauer.

Most of the state has school board and city municipal elections. There are tax measures in several areas that need to be voted on.

Here in Livingston County, we have the following:

Brighton Schools - The budget situation here is crisis, and one of the biggest problems in Joe Carney. He things the district needs to spend, spend, and spend, and then have the state pay for it. It doesn't work that way. My support goes to Miles Vieau for one of the spots. That's easy. The second spot I'm not sure about. The Argus endorsed Bill Anderson. I have a LOT of hesitation there, because he supported that big enhancement millage, which in fact contributed to his defeat four years ago. He's better on fiscal matters than Carney, but that's not good enough. Some of my local republican friends and acquaintances (Anderson's probably their favorite) probably don't care for that, but what will happen when there is big pressure? Will Anderson back another millage? Miles Vieau did not do so.

I'm actually leaning towards Keith Van Hentenryck. He wasn't quite good enough to get the Concerned Taxpayer's Group endorsement when he last ran (I was on the panel for his interview. I'm no longer with the organization, although I still trust their judgment), but he wasn't bad either. He seems like a true independent who won't follow any side or clique.

Howell and Brighton City have their own elections. I haven't followed things enough there to have an informed opinion to say yea or nay.

Hamburg - There's a millage on the ballot there. Also, the big recall election of Matt Skiba. I have mixed views on this except to say that I'm glad I live in Green Oak instead. If Pat Hohl and Phil Semprevino were also being recalled, I'd probably support sending them all home. Skiba could be doing a better job, but he never had a chance in the first place. He is a friend of Cindy Pine, and that automatically with that board made him Persona Non Grata. At the first chance, they wanted him gone, and they were going to make his job as difficult as possible and then recall them. Even a Big Ten video replay judge could see it....well, maybe not them. Because of this, I'd probably reluctantly vote no as the least worse choice. That aside, I predict this passes with at least 60%. Skiba has not defended himself well enough. I am quite curious though about the recall campaign being able to stay under $1000 with the number of bigger signs.......

Other important elections are in our major cities like Detroit, Lansing, Ann Arbor, Flint, and Grand Rapids.

There are other special elections that are below the radar of Virginia, New Jersey, New York 23 Congress, and Michigan 19 State Senate. On November 3rd, we have:

Alabama - House District 65
Georgia - Senate District 1, House Districts 75, 129, 141, 159
Missouri - House District 73
New Hampshire - House District 11
South Carolina - House District 48
Washington State - House Districts 9, 15, 16

I don't know much or anything about those districts, but they were mentioned by the Republican State Leadership Committee. In special elections, throw out the normal rules anyway on elections, because it is about turnout. Anyone can win a special election, even Democrats in Livingston County. (and I think they have a damn good shot in Hamburg, gift wrapped by people with R's by their name - although I never see them at the GOP meetings....)

It will be an interesting day. We need to make sure the good guys vote.

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