Wednesday, November 04, 2009

The races outside of Michigan

Outside of Michigan, we had several races out there.

Virginia was a blowout. Straight down the line.

Bob McDonnell is a strong conservative. He's no liberal, not even a moderate. However, he won 59%-41% in a state that has two democrat senators, went for Obama, and twice for democrat governors. The GOP needs to study how he won. It could be a very good template for running elections.

It wasn't just conservatives areas McDonnell won. McDonnell won almost all areas in liberal Northern Virginia. He lost Arlington and Alexandria which is the most liberal part of the state, but he won Fairfax County, which voted for John Kerry. He won the outer suburban and competitive counties of Loudoun and Prince William. In central Virginia, he even won Albemarle county which surrounds Charlottesville, which is the Ann Arbor of Virginia. (Cities are like their own counties in Virginia)

The Lt Governor, Bolling, won 56%-44%. He didn't win Fairfax County, but it was still a solid win. He got 48% in Fairfax which is more than good enough to win statewide.

The Attorney General candidate, Cuccinelli, was arguably the most conservative. He won 57-42%  He ran even with Bolling in Northern Virginia and did well downstate as well.

I don't know how many incumbent delegates lost, but barring recounts the GOP took races by 2% in Va Beach,1% in Lynchburg, 1% in Fairfax County, 1% in Prince William, 5% in Fairfax and Loudoun. There was probably some coattails there. Some were saved from defeat, or picked up democrat seats due to that. They didn't get all the close ones, but they got a lot of them.

For the state house/senate special elections, I don't know much about most of the districts.

Alabama had a special election for their state house. The last democrat won with 60%. The open seat went 53% democrat.

Georgia races:
State Senate 1 - Republican unopposed except by another Republican (They use the Southern runoff system)
State House 75 - Dems 60%, GOP 40%  - Clayton County, which is 70%+ democrat
State House 139 - All GOP running
State House 141 - Independent and Democrat will run off. Two Republicans split vote. One dem ran.
State House 159 - All GOP running

Missouri House 73 - Went Democrat. 60%
New Jersey was the big exclaimation point. Chris Christie, a moderate (true moderate, not liberal) Republican defeated incumbent limosine leftist and Goldman Sachs slappy Jon Corzine in a close election. 49% for Christie, and 45% for incumbent Corzine. I didn't see a lot of incuumbents defeated there for state assembly, but some open seats went GOP as well.

Couldn't find anything in New Hampshire 11th.

South Carolina 48th - 72% Republican win.

Washington State Races
9th District - 55%-45% Republican  (Eastern Washington)
15th District (Yakima) - 69%-30% Republican
16th District (Walla Walla) - 58%-42% Republican
California's 10th District stayed democrat. 15% lead or so last I saw. John Kerry and Obama both won the district by 20%

And then there's the aberration and major defeat. New York 23.

First off, whoever the GOP county chairs are that picked the 5%'er. DeDe Scozzafava, need to be relieved of their duty. They FUBARED.  Job number one for special elections that should be won is this. Pick a candidate that fits the district. What is worst of all about this is that the blueprint was there for a winner. He won several times there. His name is John McHugh. Someone who was cut from similar cloth of McHugh is the ideal candidate for this independent district.

They picked a RINO. A RINO who was supported by the NRCC with $900,000, who dropped out when the district polls sagged, and endorsed the democrat Bill Owens. This RINO did not fit the district. There was a Conservative Party candidate, Doug Hoffman (who is a Republican), and he got a lot of the support from those who refused to back the RINO. Hoffman also had a major flaw. He doesn't live in the district. Hoffman was relatively unknown and got his name out by taking this campaign and nationalizing it. That's a big risk and it did not pay off. It normally does not in special elections. In New York, this led the ballot. No governor race. No senate race. Just this race in this rural New England like district. People, especially in rural areas, tend to be resentful of outsiders coming to their district and telling them who to vote for. This district, also has strong dairy interests and a military base. McHugh took care of that, and ran 20%+ ahead of McCain and Bush. Hoffman's a good guy, but he did not fit the district either. He didn't live there.

There was no primary. Scozzafava would never have won a primary. Hoffman (who ran as the Conservative party) might have won it one on one, but in a primary, there probably would have been other candidates who would have beaten Owens. One that fits the district. Picking candidates when there is no primary is a great responsibility in special elections. Blowing this embarrased the party. 5%. Ouch. That hurts. That's bad even in Detroit. Lesson 1. Pick a candidate for your district. Lesson 2, be very cautious about nationalizing elections and running against a candidate who emphasises local issues. Local usually wins.Bill Owens was smart and downplayed Obama and the national issues. It's rather easy to double down on that when the main threat does not live in the district.

Is all this a referendum on Obama? No. I think it is a referendum to a degree on big government statism and the left wing push by the incumbents and a referendum on national politics to an extent, but the local matters still rule the day.

Virginia had 8 years of democrat rule. It had enough in spades.
New Jersey has been dominated by democrats. They had enough of Corzine.
Rural New York didn't like outsiders pushing them, nor candidates which were not a dimes worth of difference between the republican and democrat. Two rebellions there.
Michigan 19th had enough of Granholm lackeys and also really liked Nofs.
Hamburg had enough of the drama.

1 comment:

KB said...

How did Owens down play Obama? Biden was there and campaigned with him in the final 48 hours.