Tuesday, January 19, 2010

Tim Walberg leads Mark Schauer in early polling

I got this in an email press release from Tim Wallberg's campaign. I normally don't pass these along, but the poll numbers are being released.

Tipton, MI- Recent polling demonstrates that Freshman Democrat Congressman Mark Schauer is very vulnerable to defeat, as Republican Challenger Tim Walberg leads him 46% to 37% in the head to head ballot, and when “leaners” are included, Tim Walberg leads 50% to 40%.  Mark Schauer does, however, lead Republican candidate Brian Rooney 39% to 31%.  Below and attached is the Polling Memo from Adam Geller of National Research Inc.  National Research Inc. is a national political and corporate polling firm, whose client list includes Governor Chris Christie, members of Congress and State Legislatures, the NRCC, NRSC and RGA. 

“Mark Schauer has been on a spending spree and destroying jobs.  Voters want a proven, principled conservative who will watch over their tax dollars and work to grow our economy,” said Tim Walberg.

TO:                  INTERESTED PARTIES
FROM:            ADAM GELLER
RE:                  SURVEY RESULTS
DATE:             JANUARY 18, 2010

The political environment in Michigan’s 7th congressional district has seriously deteriorated for Democrats over the past year.  The generic environment favors Republicans, Tim Walberg is handily beating Freshman Congressman Mark Schauer in the head to head ballot, and Schauer’s key ratings, such as job approval, re-elect and image, show that he has done nothing to distinguish himself.  Combined, these factors place Schauer high atop the list of vulnerable incumbents.

Specific findings:

  • The generic ballot favors the Republicans.  By a score of 41%-35%, voters prefer the Republican to the Democrat in the generic congressional ballot.  

  • Republican challenger Tim Walberg is over-performing the generic and is handily defeating Mark Schauer in the ballot test.  Tim Walberg is currently beating Schauer in the ballot 46%-37%.  When “leaners” are included, Tim’s lead expands to 50%-40%.  Some of this is a function of Tim’s personal appeal; against Republican Brian Rooney, Schauer leads, 39%-31%.

  • Schauer is vulnerable on several fronts.    Mark Schauer just has bad numbers for an incumbent.  Only 37% of voters would re-elect him, while 40% say they prefer a new person.   Furthermore, 40% approve of the job he’s done, while 39% disapprove. These are bad numbers for an incumbent at the very beginning of a campaign in which he will find himself on the defensive, as is the nature of such contests.

  • The President and the Speaker have bad numbers too.   President Obama has a job approval rating of 48%, with 48% disapproving.  And only 35% have a favorable image of Speaker Pelosi, while 55% have an unfavorable image.

The Bottom Line: The overall environment has soured for the Democrats in this district.  Schauer’s numbers are flat, and will not get any better during the course of a spirited campaign.  The President and the Speaker are currently a drag on Schauer.  Add to that the turnout dynamics of a mid-term election, and it is very clear that the Freshman Democratic Congressman belongs at the very top of the list of vulnerable Democrats.

It's a good start, and I'm not that surprised at this in the 7th district which is quite populist and disgusted at Washington in general. There's still a lot of work to do though, and Schauer can not be underestimated as a campaigner. He's quite good at hiding his leftism.

1 comment:

Unknown said...

so walberg still cannot do better than his '08 loss (46%)? why would he put out a poll showing he still can't win?