Tuesday, April 13, 2010

Special Election - FL-19 - Dems win 61-35 (71% Gore district, 65% Obama district)

It was worth a try. From the AP

BOCA RATON, Fla. — A Democratic state senator on Tuesday handily won the first U.S. House race since Congress passed a massive health care overhaul, beating a decidedly underdog Republican who tried to use the backlash against the measure to pull the upset.With 97 percent of precincts reporting, Florida state Sen. Ted Deutch had 62 percent of the vote compared to 35 percent for Republican Ed Lynch. No-party candidate Jim McCormick trailed far behind with just 3 percent. The Associated Press called the race just about two hours after the polls closed.

One of the comments in Redstate mentioned how much of a longshot this was.

Their were a lot of factors that played a role in the defeat tonight of Edward Lynch.
-Seniors, Many don’t have rides and can’t drive since their up in age. Also memory can play a role, they could easily forget.I made many calls these past few days on behalf of the Lynch campaign, and discovered the age group we were trying to reach. The birth dates were around the 1920s, and 1930s which just by that; told me that these people weren’t motivated.
-Media, I checked everyday on google news and the coverage was dull. Didn’t seem special and was an obvious slam dunk for democrats from most peoples point of view.
-Funding, Lynch was outspent 1.2 million to about 78 thousand?
-Turnout, this was probably the largest factor that played a role. Out of 111,000 republicans, only 6,000 showed up….

I think all special elections need to be contested strongly. The rules are tossed out in a special election, and that's the best chance to pick up strongly partisan districts like FL-19, home of Robert Wexler. Palm Beach and Broward Counties, made infamous from the 2000 election and the butterfly ballot. I was hoping for a win. That didn't happen, and I didn't expect it to happen (using the term longshot), but it is what it is. This was a Hail Mary pass.

The good news, if any, is that the dems are running 4% behind Obama, and 5% behind 08 Wexler, and 11% behind 02 Wexler's numbers. If that can be held up across the board, it's going to be a good election in 2010. We'll see if that continues.


Communications guru said...

Wow. That’s some serious spin and backtracking after saying “Ed Lynch has a shot to win.”

Dan said...

As you always say. "Are you serious?"

I wouldn't call this backtracking.

"This is possibly the biggest longshot of the three special elections. Robert Wexler, a far leftist democrat, won here seven times. It's treading "republican", and Obama had the lowest total of the three recent democrats in this district, but it's still a democrat stronghold. Palm Beach County and Broward County are democrat. However, as with most special elections, low turnout makes the rules thrown out.

Ed Lynch has a shot to win"

Communications guru said...

I would. I don't think you missed a single excuse as to why your guy lost.