Saturday, July 02, 2011

Congressional District 14 - Redistricted (MI-14)

Incumbent - John Conyers (D-Detroit) - Running in MI-13
Years in office as of 2012 election - 48
The old 14th district information is here.

Challenger - John Hauler (R-Grosse Pointe Woods), Gary Peters (D-Bloomfield Twp, incumbent in MI-09)

Update 8-30-2012 - Surprisingly, Peters won. I never thought a white guy could win this district. Clarke won Detroit, but Peters won big in Oakland County, even the black areas there. Peters didn't do bad in Detroit either.

UPDATE 5-1-2012 - Conyers has filed in neighboring MI-13. Clarke has announced he is running in MI-14. It is likely that Brenda Lawrence and Gary Peters are also running here. They have campaigns going, although have not officially turned in their signatures.

Update 5-16-2012 - This is going to be an interesting primary. A lot of the dem establishment is surprisingly to me, lining up for Gary Peters the yesman. I just can't see a white guy from Bloomfield having a prayer in a Detroit based district, especially with Brenda Lawrence running in Southfield. A white guy from Detroit? Maybe. A black guy from Bloomfield? Less likely, but possible. Maybe I'll be proven wrong, but I'll be shocked if Peters wins, especially against someone like Clarke instead of Conyers, who has a history of doing well in white areas with his nice guy image. Waters would have been a stronger candidate a few years back pre-scandal. Lawrence I think is a much stronger candidate than people think. My money is still on Clarke. Clarke may have been in another district, but he's represented the East Side.

This is one of two black majority voting rights act districts in Michigan. I'm not going to run the numbers because Detroit itself is 93-95% democrat. Detroit's population keeps dropping, but it's still about 1/2 of the district.

Say what you want about John Conyers, but he's a survivor. He got his start as Dingell's aide, probably back when Dingell represented Detroit. He's been his colleague for 48 years.

The old 14th district was Detroit, and much of downriver. The new 14th picks up the Grosse Pointes, much to their chagrin (avoiding a Macomb/Wayne County break). It also goes across 8 Mile Road into Oakland County due to migration. It picks up black majority Southfield, Oak Park, Lathrup Village, and Royal Oak Township from Sander Levin. It then picks up Farmington Hills and most of West Bloomfield from the old 9th district. Orchard Lake and Keego Harbor are added as well, and probably aren't very about this. Pontiac is over 50% minority and is added to this district as well.

This is one of the two safest districts in the state for the dems.

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