Saturday, August 20, 2011

State Senate Redistricting - District 26 (SD-26)

State Senate - District 26
Current Rep – Tonya Schuitmaker or Open

This district was carved out from scratch. Population shift in Michigan took a seat out of East Michigan and put it in West Michigan. Most of the old 26th district is now the 14th. This new district consists of Van Buren County (From the 20th/21st District and John Proos/Schuitmaker), Allegan County (from the 24th District and Rick Jones), and Gaines Twp/Kentwood of Kent County from Dave Hildenbrand and Mark Jansen in the 28th/29th districts.

This district gives Tonya Schuitmaker an option for 2014. She's in Van Buren County, but most of her district is Kalamazoo County. The new 26th district has solidly republican Allegan County, but could have a geographic primary disadvantage as she has not represented northern Allegan County or the Kentwood area.  The new Kalamazoo County district is a swing district down ticket which has voted for Republican State Senators, but leans democrat on paper.

Whatever Schuitmaker's decision is, this district is safe for the GOP, despite McCain cratering in West Michigan. Northern Allegan County (outside Saugatuck and Douglas) and Gaines Township make this safe unless there's a disaster. Southern Allegan County isn't solidly GOP, but leans slightly GOP outside of a few areas. Van Buren County is competitive, although leans GOP downticket outside of a couple of places like Covert. Schuitmaker only lost heavily minority Covert in her 2008 state rep race. Gaines Township in Kent County is a base area. Kentwood has gotten very competitive lately with the influx of Grand Rapids blacks to the area. It flipped to Obama in 08 and Kerry actually did better than Gore there. That's probably why Kentwood got put into a different state senate district than Grand Rapids itself.

Whatever Schuimaker does here, this district is probably one of the safer ones in the state for us.

McCain Obama Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Allegan County 30061 24165 54226 5896 55.44% 44.56% 10.87%
Van Buren County 15534 18588 34122 -3054 45.52% 54.48% -8.95%
Kent County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Gaines Twp 7542 4788 12330 2754 61.17% 38.83% 22.34%
Kentwood 10636 12587 23223 -1951 45.80% 54.20% -8.40%

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 63773 60128 123901 3645 51.47% 48.53% 2.94%

Bush Kerry Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Allegan County 34022 19355 53377 14667 63.74% 36.26% 27.48%
Van Buren County 17634 16151 33785 1483 52.19% 47.81% 4.39%
Kent County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Gaines Twp 8110 3202 11312 4908 71.69% 28.31% 43.39%
Kentwood 13014 9126 22140 3888 58.78% 41.22% 17.56%

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 72780 47834 120614 24946 60.34% 39.66% 20.68%

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