Wednesday, November 09, 2011

Be careful what you wish for

The MEA is celebrating their victory after taking out Paul Scott. Scott is fairly conservative, but his replacement is a lot more conservative when it comes to educational issues. Tom McMillin.

As the left wing Huffington Post says.

Well, guess what? There seems to be no plan to change course. As Ballenger predicted, the recall has resulted in a worse outcome for Michigan teachers, as today Speaker of the House Jase Bolger (R-Marshall) named state Representative Tom McMillin (R-Rochester Hills) to serve as the interim chair of the Education Committee. The Michigan Information and Research Service recently named McMillin as the lawmaker in the state with the most conservative voting record, and he's long been opposed by the MEA because of his support for public school privatization.

As former GOP Michigan Senate Majority Leader Mike Bishop tweeted, "The MEA spent $150k dollars only to get their nemesis, Representative Tom McMillin, appointed as the chairman of the education committee."

Politics is a marathon and not a sprint and one must always be prepared for unintended consequences. Right now, all the MEA did was piss off the GOP, even those who are less hardline than say a McMillin. McMillan's district is a lot more difficult for the dems, even with redistricting making his new district slightly more difficult. I don't think the MEA wants McMillin as chair.

But but but.....doesn't this recall send a message that they can't do this? The answer is this. They recalled someone. So what. I repeat. So what. Screw it.

Here's why.

Paul Scott was recalled in an odd number year with low turnout. The MEA is master of the low turnout odd number year election. That's their win. They got it. Give them credit.

However, there's a decent chance that all that money was spent for one thing. A vacancy. Why?

A. The special election for Scott's replacement is the same day as the presidential primary. There will be some crossover votes, but the GOP will turn out heavily that day for obvious reasons. Advantage GOP. If the GOP wins the open seat in February, than all the MEA won with the recall was 3 months of one less GOP vote and bragging rights. If this recall took place in say 2005, then it would be much more significant than in 2011.

B. Redistricting. Genesee County lost population. Grand Blanc and Mundy Twp join with Burton. Burton is solidly democrat. The dems are going to take that seat barring a massive upset. The new 51st trades off Grand Blanc and Mundy for the Flushing area and parts of North Oakland County. I didn't run the numbers, but it is probably more republican than the old district thanks to Groveland and Rose Twps in Oakland County. So even if the dems take the old 51st, the new one is going to be much harder to keep. Doh!

As the old saying goes, don't hunt what you can't kill.

1 comment:

Communications guru said...

Nice try at spin, but the fact is you turn your back on the middle class at your peril. You will find that out next November. At least we know McMillan is a rightwing nutjob.