Sunday, November 06, 2011

State House Redistricting - District 10 (HD-10)

State House - District 10
Current Rep – Phil Cavanagh (D-Redford) Shanelle Jackson? (D-Detroit, running for Congress)

Declared Candidates:
GOP - Jasmine Bridges (R-Redford)
Dem - Phil Cavanagh (D-Redford)

Update 8-30-2012 - Cavanagh won the primary by 1600 votes. He got a slim majority in a four way race, with Leslie Love being the closest challenger.

Update 5-25-2012 - Cavanagh's going to have a fight. The good news for him is that there is three Detroiters splitting the votes. The bad news for him is that he can't count strictly on the old time Irish/Polish and union vote like it used to be in Redford. Demographics are changing there fast. However, Cavanagh's still a good last name in Wayne County, and one of the reasons the last Republican to win here was Jim Ryan is due to demographics. Redford was only narrowly democrat as recently as 2000 (and 2002 for McCotter). The question is whether one Detroiter takes off and makes this a black city vs white suburb fight, even though Redford is now mixed.

2010 Results - Old District (17th)
Phil Cavanagh - 16668
Mike Adams - 9985

Demographics has significantly changed redistricting in Wayne County. Detroit itself dropped over 150,000 in 10 years. In the 2000 redistricting, Detroit had 11 1/2 districts. In 2010, it has 9 3/4. The old 10th district was in Detroit. The new 10th is made up of largely the 17th district, with some of the old 9th. I believe it might be majority-minority, but I'm not sure about that.

The old 17th had Redford, part of Dearborn Heights, and a small part of Livonia. The 10th drops the portion of Dearborn Heights to the 11th and the part of Livonia to the 19th. Instead it takes in a strip of Detroit alongside 8 mile for about 8 miles.

Redford used to be competitive but it is now about 2-1 Democrat. The reason is the increase in Detroiters moving there, along with the old union traditions. About half of the vote in the old district was Redford, so half of the new district is Detroit. That means this district is probably now a Voting Rights Act district.

That means the primary is the election in this district. There may be some interesting primary battle here between Redford in Detroit in the future.

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