Friday, November 11, 2011

State House Redistricting - District 18 (HD-18)

State House - District 18
Current Rep – OPEN

Declared Candidates:
GOP - Candice Rusie (R-St Clair Shores)
Dem - Sarah Roberts (D-St Clair Shores)

Update 8-30-2012 - Roberts won the primary.

Update 5-25-2012 - Four way primary here. Sarah Roberts is a former rep who lost in the 2010 wave in a different district. I wonder if she still drives a foreign car.

2010 Results - Old District (42nd)
Harold Haugh - 14,928
Jason Stuart - 7,497

Old District (21st)
Anthony Forlini - 16,552
Sarah Roberts - 15,516

This new district was created to help Anthony Forlini. Forlini is from Harrison Township. He dropped the St Clair Shores portion of his district. Harold Haugh drops Eastpointe, but he's safe depending on the portion of Warren he has. He's safe from a Republican, but primaries could be interesting.

Eastpointe is now 30% black and growing quickly. It's now the most democrat part of Macomb County outside of possibly Mt Clemens. St Clair Shores is competitive but leans democrat. This is a safe open seat. Obama won it by about 9000 votes. Unless a Republican takes St Clair Shores by at least 7-8 thousand votes, this district won't flip. I can see 2K in a very good year. The numbers aren't there unless the democrats nominate a Dianne Feinstein type and parade her around in a foreign car, and even there it would be extremely difficult with the new demographics in Eastpointe.


Conservative First said...

This seems like a mistake to me. The old district went Republican 4 out of 5 times last decade, only being lost in the 2008 wave. This district needed to add a couple precinct for population, but that wouldn't change its partisanship.

Dan said...

Basically, I think this one got exchanged for giving us a better shot at the Switalski district.

I still don't like putting Eastpointe and Roseville in different districts. I'll have a better idea after seeing some numbers.