Friday, November 11, 2011

State House Redistricting - District 21 (HD-21)

State House - District 21
Current Rep – Dian Slavens (D-Canton)

Declared Candidates:
GOP - Joe Barnabei (R-Van Buren Twp)
Dem - Dian Slavens (D-Canton)

Update 8-30-2012 - Slavens won her primary.

Update 5-25-2012 - Interesting matchup here. I don't know much about Barnabei, but this district would have flipped in 2010 under the current borders as less of Van Buren Twp is in the district than it used to be. Can Barnabei take this seat back?

2010 Results - Old District (21st)
Dian Slavens - 18,201
Lori Levi - 17,320

This district does not change much, except that it drops part of Van Buren Township. It consists of most of Canton, most of Van Buren Twp, and all of Belleville. It would have flipped last election in its current form, but went big for the dems in 2008. Obama won approximately by 8400 votes last election, led by 600 vt wins in Belleville, 4300 vt wins in Van Buren(overall) and 7000 vote win in Canton (overall). Canton did vote for Bush twice. Van Buren Twp and Belleville have been democrat for years.

Levi came close to winning. She won Canton by 1400, but lost Van Buren by 2100 and Belleville by 210. Van Buren Twp is gone due to demographics. The portion of Van Buren Twp in the district is 29% black. The only chance for the GOP to take this district back is by big win in Canton. Phil LaJoy did that in 2006. He won Canton by 6500 and the district by 4700. In 2002, he won the open seat by 2800 over Mark Slavens. That was also due to a 4000 vote win in Canton.

This district is winnable, but it takes more than a 1600 vote spread to win the district. Slavens won the district while losing Canton twice. Van Buren and Belleville tip this district towards the democrats. This district leans democrat, but could flip in a good year. Phil LaJoy won this district 3 times.


Conservative First said...

The GOP screwed up this district. Canton has the population to be its own district, and that district would be much friendlier to the GOP than what was drawn. District 21 could pick up a corner of Livonia and the most Republican parts of Westland and be just as Republican as what was drawn.

Dan said...

I agree. This district is almost flat out conceded. Van Buren is going to get worse and worse. I think it would take removing more than a handful of precincts to make this anything better than a 35% shot to win.

Canton has diminishing returns, and Van Buren is lost.