Saturday, November 12, 2011

State House Redistricting - District 25 (HD-25)

State House - District 25
Current Rep –OPEN

Declared Candidates:
Rep - Sean Clark (R-Warren)
Dem - Henry Yanez (D-Sterling Heights),

Update 8-30-2012 -Clark vs Yanez one on one.

Update 5-25-2012 - Clark has a much friendlier district than last time where he lost, but showed some strength against a Switalski.  I think we have a shot here.

2010 Results - Old District (25th)
Jon Switalski - 14,891
Sean Clark - 13,167

This district changed heavily with redistricting. The old district was Northern Warren and Southern Sterling Heights. Today, the district is Eastern Sterling Heights and Northeastern Warren. It is now a Sterling Heights based district. What I don't know is if this is Switalski's district, or an open district than put two democrats in the other Warren District.

One thing that did surprise me is that this was within 1700 votes, considering the last name of the democrat is Switalski. That's a very well known name. Mickey Switalski was a high profile democrat that won often in Roseville. Switalski won this district easily in 2008 and had a tougher than normal challenge in the new district as demographics make Northern Warren more democrat.

The new district is tough to read. According to Dave's Redistricting, It went for Obama approximately by 3200 votes. The portions of both parts in percentage, is around 52-53%. That's a winnable district in the right circumstances. This isn't South Warren or Eminem territory. Obama took Sterling Heights overall by about 4500 votes. Bush won it twice, so this isn't worth writing off. Obama numbers are a bad case scenario. 2008 was a bad year, and McCain quit the state. Unfortunately, I can't use the Bush numbers when cities and townships are split as comparison. The "averages" numbers I think are almost worthless.

On paper, this looks like a swing district. Nothing comes easy in Macomb County, and I think this district will be fought hard for a long period of time and is winnable for either party, especially if it's open.

1 comment:

Conservative First said...

I read that Switalski lives in the western Warren district. If he doesn't want a contested primary there, he could move and run here.