Sunday, November 13, 2011

State House Redistricting - District 33 (HD-33)

State House - District 33
Current Reps - Ken Holke (R-Ray Twp) and Andrea LaFontaine (R-Richmond)

Declared Candidates:
Rep - Ken Golke (R-Ray Twp)
Dem - Martha O'Kray (D-Macomb Twp)

2010 Results - Old District (32nd)
Andrea LaFontaine - 16,101
Jennifer Haase - 14,354

Old District (33rd)
Ken Golke - 24,469
Andrew Prasiloski - 12,339

Redistricting wasn't kind to either Ken Golke (Ray Twp) or Andrea LaFontaine (Richmond). They were both placed in the same district (33rd). That makes a potentially incumbent v incumbent fight. Golke is in small Ray Twp but represents more of the district by population with Macomb Township. LaFontaine represents more of the land area, but also represented most of the area in the neighboring open new 32nd district.

The old 32nd District covered Armada, Chesterfield, Lenox, and Richmond Townships. It also covered the cities of Memphis, Richmond, and New Baltimore. In St Clair County, it covered Columbus, Ira, Kimball, and Wales Twps.

The old 33rd District covered part of Clinton Township, Macomb Township, and Ray Township. Goike won them all big, but that seat is safely republican for almost any rep.

The new 33rd drops Clinton and a small part of Macomb Townships. It keeps most of Macomb Twp, and Ray Twp and picks up usually GOP leaning Armada, Richmond, Macomb's portion of Memphis, and democrat leaning Lenox Twp (New Haven).

With the Macomb Split, I can't give exact numbers, but Dave's Redistricting has the district at 51% McCain (not including Armada Twp). I think they should have helped out the neighboring district a big more by putting LaFontaine's home base there, but we'll see what happens here. The old 33rd district was safe for republicans. This one is slightly tougher with Lenox Township added, but I'll be surprised if it flips, even if Jennifer Haase tries to make a comeback.

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