Wednesday, November 07, 2012

2012 Election commentary - Pt 1

I'm still trying to get all the results in that I can. Some are tougher than others. I'll get to the actual numbers when they are in. Some of the counties aren't in yet, at least officially. I'd have to see the micro level to make final determinations.

To Start -Why did Romney lose and Obama win? Romney wasn't as bad of candidate as I thought he would be. He went from being what I thought was a bad candidate to a mediocre candidate on the level of George W Bush (different strengths and different weaknesses). This was a guy that was not popular at all during the primaries over a list of other weak candidates. Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich, Michelle Bachman, Herman Cain, and others all were considered "contenders" at some point. Each had their turn as the "not Romney." Romney was able to get a lot of that base on board. He did show some of the same weakness from 2008 that cost him against McCain. He can't close the deal. Obama I think did with the hurricane.

This reminded me a bit of the 2004 campaign in reverse, except that Romney wasn't a traitor like John Kerry. Romney did have his major flaw however in the auto bailout editorial. 

This is what I think were the major factors both here and elsewhere.

1. Ground game and late start. Romney's ground game was NOT bad (McCain's was nonexistent), but he doesn't have the big ace in the hole that the dems have. Government unions and the both money and organization they have. When I was watching the precincts in Lansing, ALL of them had people working the polls with slate cards. Most of them were working for proposals, but they also handed out lit with candidates. That's allowed beyond 100 ft of the entrance. The timing I think was off as well. There was a late start and signs weren't in (and they were rationed) until the absentee votes were already started. The ground game needs to be cultivated first before the tv ad wars. This frustrated a lot of early volunteers and turned a lot of them into keybord and internet warriors instead of actual activists.

2.  Rick Snyder. He was a triple whammy for us this year in Michigan:
Snyder whammy 1 -  Snyder and Romney to an extent have similar styles. Business CEO's. I got a lot of flack from blue collar white ethnics (and I'm from a family of them) about Romney being too much like Snyder. We needed to win that vote to have a chance. In the Midwest, we did NOT. Macomb and Monroe Counties stayed with Obama.

Snyder whammy 2 - TAXES. Specifically his push for the gas tax and his already enacted pension tax. This was, due to style and backgrounds, backlashed by association to Snyder.

Snyder whammy 3 - Proposal 5. This could have helped get more conservatives to the polls if Snyder stayed out of the way and some of the reps had a little more courage. Joe Hune supported it, but even he should have supported it from the start. The Snyder led push against Prop 5 did not help us with fiscally conservative independents that we needed to defeat Obama. We didn't get enough. Oakland stayed with Obama, and Romney underperformed in West Michigan.

3. Most of the proposals.  All the liberal interest groups had a reason to go to the polls. Proposal 1 - Emergency Manager Law. - Inner Cities. They don't want to be taken over by the manager and it the old law is back in effect. Personally, I'd rather see piss poor run municipalities and districts get put in bankruptcy court instead. If they vote for screw-ups, they deserve the consequences.  Proposal 2 - All the unions, especially government unions were organized for this. MEA and SEIU especially. Proposal 3 - Greenies. Proposal 4 - SEIU again. This was like 2004 in reverse with the gay marriage ban on the ballot.

4. Hurricane. There was a shift to Obama at the end. Incumbents usually get a small break at times of disaster. Chris Christie and Obama had their photo-op. Big assist there among independents. I don't fault Christie for this. Many conservatives are pissed off about it, but he has his job to do. His job as CEO of New Jersey is to steady the ship there. The photo op distracted voters from Obama's self-destruction and made him look "bipartisan."

5. Where did Romney stand?  That was the problem conservatives had in the primary. That was the problem a lot of independents had. (Voted for it before against it)

6. Let Detroit go Bankrupt. This is what most of all killed Romney. One headline made by the kings of the leftist media - the NY Times.  That hurt him bad. What also hurt is this. Romney should have constantly reminded voters that GM and Chrysler DID go bankrupt. Bankruptcy reorganization isn't the same as bankruptcy liquidation (of everything). Most people when they think of bankruptcy think of the liquidation. This hurt him bad in SE Michigan, the Dayton area, and Northern Ohio.

7. Bad senate candidates. I'm as pro-life as it gets. Babies need to be protected (and THAT's the focus pro-life candidates need to get back to, not the exception arguments. Babies are innocent.). You'll also never hear me make the same dipshit comments made by Richard Mourdock and Todd Akin. That cost us AT LEAST two senate campaigns and played into the playbook of Planned Barrenhood. It may have hurt us elsewhere as well, and I think it hurt Romney in the Northeast. Those wern't the only bad candidates. I personally like Pete Hoekstra and Tommy Thompson, but they ran like they were talked into running. Hoekstra was Bouchard 2006 all over again. Stabenow can be beat, but NOT by a generic campaign. I think Clark Durant would have given us a better shot. We need to make sure in primaries that we vote for candidates who run like they want to win, and those that don't have a history of making Todd Akin type of statements.

Now notice what I didn't say. I didn't say establishment. I didn't say tea party. I didn't say moderate. I didn't say not conservative enough. That's all media pundit talking head bullshit and horseshit. Todd Akin isn't tea party. He was the establishment candidate, Huckabee wing. Richard Mourdock was a tea party candidate who beat liberal republican Dick Lugar in the primary. Both made the same comments that did not need to be said. Both of them would have won if they didn't make those comments. Romney didn't "moderate" too late or be "conservative." too early. He did best when he talked about his plans. Competence based issues. It's Obama's weakness. It should have been Romney's strength. 

In 2016, there will be an open seat primary on both sides. We need to find a good solid competent candidate who can get votes from both the base and the independents. That does not require going so called moderate or so called far rights. It requires someone whom we can hire to do the job properly.

On a different note, I have to give some kudos to the election workers running the polls in Lansing. I was a roving attorney there assigned nine precincts. I was able to make eight because of major problems at one of the precincts. The problem was a broken tabulator that counts the votes. My grades for the poll workers was an A, and an F- for the machines. The poll workers did the best they could with the circumstances. I was there when it happened, and I received a call about it when a concerned voter called GOP HQ. Poll challengers and poll watchers are important. Poll workers also important. Those are thankless jobs, but needed.

Lastly - The Good (Livingston County). The Bad (Obama). The Ugly (US Senate). Democrats destroyed Detroit, and if you keep voting for democrats, especially city or inner ring suburban democrats, you're going to eventually turn the entire country into Detroit or Chicago (and I mean ALL parts of those cities, not just downtown where the tourists go). That includes white democrats who are just as much of the problem. The Detroit riots happen under the watch of white progressives. They start the problems in the first place.

When these politicians do what we all know they do, the blames lies not with the politicians, but their idiot employers who hired them. Their VOTERS are the f'ups. Their VOTERS are to blame. Brian Banks, Barack Obama, and Chris Dodd don't just appear. The shareholders who are f'ups hire them.
But don't you forget you made the choice, You made your mark, you raised your voice, They're all the same, you're all to blame They're all the same, you're all to blame They're all the same, and you're to blame You're dogs!

50+ years of Republican run areas - Livingston County.
50+ years of Democrat run area - City of Detroit.
Call it sour grapes if you want, but that's the fact, Jack.

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