Sunday, June 05, 2005

Mackinac County

Mackinac County:
Location – UP
Population – 11,943 (2000 Census)
Demographics – 80.07% White, .20% Black, 14.21% American Indian, .31% Asian, .28% Some other Race, 4.92% Two or more races, .90% Hispanic or Latino(of any race)
County Seat – St Ignace (pop 2,678)

Mackinac County is one of the two Easternmost counties in the UP. It is a swing county for most races, and tilts GOP for national races. It also contains Mackinac Island between the UP, and “Trollland.”

Government Officials Representing area:
Congressmen:
1st District – Bart Stupak (D)

State Senators:
38th District – Jason Allen (R)


State Representative:
107th District – Gary McDowell (D)

1998 Results Countywide:(Winners overall in bold)
Governor - John Engler (R) – 64.70%, Geoffrey Fieger (D) – 35.30%
Secretary of State - Candice Miller (R) – 71.87%, Mary Lou Parks (D) – 26.58%
Attorney General - Jennifer Granholm (D) – 52.04%, John Smietanka (R) – 47.96%

Congress:
1st District – Bart Stupak (D) – 58.69%, Michelle McManus (R) – 40.01%

State Senators:
37th District – Walt North (R) – 69.78%, Kay Ann Chase (D) – 30.22%

State Representative:
107th District – Randy Bertran (D) – 52.35%, Scott Shakleton (R) – 47.65%

2000 Results Countywide
US Senate - Spence Abraham (R) – 58.12%, Debbie Stabenow (D) – 39.40%
Congress:
1st District – Bart Stupak (D) – 58.67%, Chuck Yob (R) – 40.13%

State Representative:
107th District – Scott Shakleton (R) – 69.37%, Steve Dart (D) – 30.63%

2002 Results Countywide
Governor – Dick Posthumus (R) – 51.97%, Jennifer Granholm (D) – 47.28%
Secretary of State - Terri Lynn Land (R) – 64.64%, Butch Hollowell (D) – 33.31%
Attorney General – Mike Cox (R) – 56.56%, Gary Peters (D) – 41.38%
US Senate - Carl Levin (D) – 62.13%, Andrew "Rocky" Raczkowski (R) – 36.61%
Congress:
1st District – Bart Stupak (D) – 71.81%, Don Hooper (R) – 27.39%

State Senate:
37th District – Jason Allen (R) – 52.22%, Michael Estes (D) – 47.78%

State Representative:
107th District – Scott Shakleton (R) – 63.67%, Gary McDowell (D) – 36.33%

2004 Results Countywide
Congress:
1st District – Bart Stupak (D) – 69.31%, Don Hooper (R) – 29.16%

State Representative:
109th District – Gary McDowell (D) – 51.07%, Walt North (R) – 48.93%

2000, 2004 Presidential Results
First number Bush, Second number Democrat
Areas that flipped are in Bold.
MACKINAC COUNTY
2000 - Bush - 3272 (54.81%), Gore - 2533 (42.43%)
2004 - Bush - 3706 (56.16%), Kerry – 2819 (42.72%)

Moran Township
2000 - 246 (45.14%), 283 (51.93%)
2004 – 332 (51.96%), 302 (47.23%)

Hendricks Township
2000 - 47 (47.96%), 50 (51.02%)
2004 – 50 (55.56%), 40 (44.44%)

St Ignace Township
2000 - 166 (49.26%), 162 (48.07%)
2004 – 211 (46.99%), 232 (51.67%)

St Ignace City
2000 - 526 (48.98%), 513 (47.77%)
2004 – 646 (54.47%), 532 (44.86%)

Bois Blanc Township
2000 - 65 (47.79%), 63 (46.32%)
2004 – 60 (50.85%), 55 (46.61%)

Mackinac Island City
2000 - 221 (50.34%), 193 (43.96%)
2004 – 230 (52.04%), 205 (46.38%)

Brevort Township
2000 – 154 (55.80%), 116 (42.03%)
2004 – 191 (55.69%), 152 (44.31%)

Newton Township
2000 – 112 (56.85%), 82 (41.62%)
2004 – 122 (50.00%), 117 (47.95%)

Hudson Township
2000 - 60 (57.69%), 44 (42.31%)
2004 – 68 (59.13%), 44 (38.26%)

Portage Township
2000 - 315 (58.77%), 205 (38.25%)
2004 – 341 (56.09%), 255 (41.94%)

Clark Township
2000 - 743 (59.54%), 481 (38.54%)
2004 – 800 (60.56%), 513 (38.83%)

Garfield Township
2000 - 428 (62.12%), 253 (36.72%)
2004 – 454 (61.94%), 264 (36.02%)

Marquette Township
2000 - 189 (67.50%), 88 (31.43%)
2004 – 201 (64.63%), 108 (34.73%)

Bush twice overperformed in Mackinac County for the GOP. While Republicans often are able to win in Mackinac County, it’s not a 55% GOP county from top to bottom, and moderate democrats do well here with the large number of state workers. St Ignace Township flipped from Bush to Kerry in 2004, and Moran and Hendricks Townships flipped from Gore to Bush. Both Bush and Kerry gained percentage points in 2004, but Bush gained more, despite the Nader votes going dem.

Mackinac County also takes the NRA ratings seriously. Walt North was the victim of an undeserved (IMO) “F” rating by them due to one vote on the Morning Pigeon Hunting bill. While North deserved a grade reduction to that vote, he didn’t deserve an F, while Joe Schwarz (who voted against CCW and campaigned on that issue in 2002) got a “B-“. Schwarz deserved an F, and North should have gotten the B- or C. Taking off my GOP hat, I’m not against the NRA’s endorsement of McDowell. SAFR also endorsed him. However, grades need to be consistent, and the CCW vote was bigger than the Pigeon bill(both of which I support).

The NRA’s influence here though speaks for itself. Walt North (From St Ignace) wins easily with almost 70%+ in 1998. Scott Shakleton beats Gary McDowell in 2002 with 63%. McDowell gets the NRA endorsement and beats North in his home county in 2004.

Mackinac County will likely continue to be competitive in most races, shunning away from national democrats, but open to voting for local democrats.

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