Sunday, May 08, 2005

Bay County

Bay County:
Location – Saginaw Bay:
Population – 110,157 (2000 Census)
Demographics – 94.94% White, 1.26% Black, .54% American Indian, .46% Asian, 1.23% Some other Race, 1.54% Two or more races, 3.91% Hispanic or Latino(of any race)
County Seat – Bay City (pop 36,817)

Bay County is a base democrat county on Saginaw Bay. It is between Saginaw and Standish, and also between Midland and Tuscola County. It is a UAW and GM county.

Government Officials Representing area:
Congressmen:
Bart Stupak (D) - 1st District – Auburn, Beaver Township, Fraser Township, Garfield Township, Gibson Township, Kawkawlin Township, Midland City (Bay County portion), Monitor Township, Mount Forest Township, Pinconning, Pinconning Township, Williams Township.

Dale Kildee (D) - 5th District – Bangor Township, Bay City, Essexville, Frankenlust Township, Hampton Township, Merritt Township, Monitor Township, Portsmouth Township.

State Senator – Jim Barcia (D), 24th District
State Representatives:
Jeff Mayes (D) – 96th Distrist – Auburn, Bangor Township, Bay City, Beaver Township, Essexville, Frankenlust Township, Hampton Township, Merritt Township, Midland City (Bay County portion), Monitor Township, Portsmouth Township, Williams Township.

Tim Moore (R) – 97th District – Fraser Township, Garfield Township, Gibson Township, Kawkawlin Township, Monitor Township, Mount Forest Township, Pinconning, Pinconning Township.

1998 Results Countywide:(Winners overall in bold)
Governor - John Engler (R) - 60.83%, Geoff Fieger (D) – 39.14%
Secretary of State - Candice Miller (R) – 65.38%, Mary Lou Parks (D) – 33.26%
Attorney General - Jennifer Granholm (D) – 59.82%, John Smietanka (R) – 40.18%
Congress (5th District) – James Barcia (D) – 83.49%, Donald Brewster (D) – 15.04%
State Senator (34th District) – Joel Gougeon (R) – 56.09%, Tom Alley (D) – 43.91%
State Representatives:
(96th District) – AT Frank (D) – 66.79%, Roland Jersevic (R) – 33.21%
(97th District) – Joseph Rivet (D) – 65.42%, Steven Goss (R) – 34.58%

2000 Results Countywide
US Senate – Debbie Stabenow (D) – 50.09%, Spence Abraham (R) – 47.11%
Congress (5th District) – James Barcia (D) – 83.49%, Ronald Actis (R) – 15.04%
State Representatives:
96th District – AT Frank (D) – 70.50%, Derek Eager (R) – 29.50%
97th District – Joseph Rivet (D) – 65.88%, Steven Goss - 30.28%

2002 Results Countywide
Governor – Jennifer Granholm (D) – 53.29%, Dick Posthumus (R) – 45.27%
Secretary of State - Terri Lynn Land (R) – 49.80%, Butch Hollowell (D) – 47.89%
Attorney General – Gary Peters (D) – 56.88%, Mike Cox (R) – 40.75%
US Senate - Carl Levin (D) – 69.62%, Andrew "Rocky" Raczkowski (R) – 28.97%
Congress:
1st District – Bart Stupak (D) – 58.92%, Don Hooper (R) – 39.05%
5th District – Dale Kildee (D) – 89.86%, Clint Foster (LIBERTARIAN) – 6.61%
State Senate (31st District) – Jim Barcia (D) – 74.62%, Mike Green (R) – 25.38%
State Representatives:
96th District – Joseph Rivet (D) – 63.71%, Vaughn Begick (R) – 36.29%
97th District – Jennifer Elkins (D) – 51.71%, David Coker (R) – 48.29%

2004 Results Countywide
Congress:
1st District – Bart Stupak (D) – 59.66%, Don Hooper (R) – 38.03%
5th District – Dale Kildee (D) – 65.22%, Myrah Kirkwood (R) – 32.87%
State Representatives:
96th District – Jeff Mayes (D) – 63.58%, Steven Goss (R) – 36.42%
97th District – Jennifer Elkins (D) – 51.89%, Tim Moore (R) – 48.11

2000, 2004 Presidential Results
First number Bush, Second number Democrat
Areas that flipped are in Bold.

BAY COUNTY
2000 – Bush – 22150 (42.90%), Gore 28251 (54.71%)
2004 – Bush – 25439 (44.60%), Kerry 31032 (54.41%)

Auburn City
2000 - 551 (51.74%), 488 (45.82%)
2004 – 641 (54.09%), 537 (45.32%)

Bangor Township
2000 - 3334 (44.20%), 4034 (53.48%)
2004 – 3779 (46.72%), 4233 (52.33%)


Bay City
2000 - 5259 (33.96%), 9806 (63.31%)
2004 – 6005 (36.11%), 10450 (62.83%)

Beaver Township
2000 - 664 (50.42%), 618 (46.92%)
2004 – 792 (52.84%), 691 (46.10%)

Essexville City
2000 – 922 (43.49%), 1156 (54.53%)
2004 – 989 (44.93%), 1183 (53.75%)

Frankenlust Township
2000 - 972 (63.74%), 520 (34.10%)
2004 – 1146 (62.55%), 672 (36.68%)

Fraser Township
2000 - 698 (44.49%), 837 (53.35%)
2004 – 768 (43.37%), 992 (56.01%)

Garfield Township
2000 – 347 (43.65%), 431 (54.21%)
2004 – 391 (41.24%), 542 (57.17%)

Gibson Township
2000 – 232 (48.64%), 236 (49.48%)
2004 – 261 (46.69%), 293 (52.42%)

Hampton Township
2000 – 1893 (41.09%), 2586 (56.13%)
2004 – 2185 (42.82%), 2865 (56.17%)

Kawkawlin Township
2000 – 1104 (46.98%), 1194 (50.81%)
2004 – 1271 (47.55%), 1377 (51.52%)

Merritt Township
2000 - 435 (54.85%), 339 (42.75%)
2004 – 430 (51.07%), 406 (48.22%)

Midland City
2000 - 17 (35.42%), 31 (64.58%)
2004 – 10 (26.32%), 28 (73.68%)

Monitor Township
2000 – 2704 (49.01%), 2711 (49.14%)
2004 – 3199 (51.46%), 2970 (47.77%)

Mount Forest Township
2000 - 308 (49.12%), 305 (48.64%)
2004 – 337 (44.75%), 401 (53.25%)

Pinconning City
2000 - 239 (41.78%), 323 (56.47%)
2004 – 249 (39.21%), 377 (59.37%)

Pinconning Township
2000 - 541 (47.79%), 566 (50.00%)
2004 – 626 (47.28%), 686 (51.81%)

Portsmouth Township
2000 - 749 (40.93%), 1036 (56.61%)
2004 – 912 (45.17%), 1089 (53.94%)

Williams Township
2000 - 1181 (52.23%), 1034 (45.73%)
2004 - 1446 (53.30%), 1240 (45.71%)

Bay County is one of the base counties for the democrats. It’s socially conservative, but extremely tradition due to the UAW’s influence. Bay City is a GM city. Outside of Ann Arbor, Bay City is probably the whitest of the democrat strongholds in the state (outside of possibly Marquette). Most of the other democrat cities have significant minority populations. Bay County is socially conservative, pro-gun, and very populist, and votes the latter. They prefer social moderates/conservatives like Jim Barcia over social liberals, but will back a liberal over a republican in most cases.

Redistricting significantly impacted Bay County. It was part of the 5th district before part of it was carved up and given to Bart Stupak’s UP based seat, and the rest given to Dale Kildee’s Flint based district. The state senate district hardly changed, but the state representative districts were changed. One district is still a Bay City based district, but the other was given to a Clare/Gladwin based district instead.

It’s not impossible to win Bay County as Joel Gougeon showed, but it’s actually more democrat than neighboring Saginaw County which has more of a democrat reputation due to the city. Bay City is less democrat than the City of Saginaw, but the county is more democrat from top to bottom. Saginaw also has Frankenmuth which is very republican.

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