Friday, May 20, 2005

Ogemaw County

Ogemaw County:
Location – Northeastern Michigan
Population – 21,645 (2000 Census)
Demographics – 97.48% White, .13% Black, .60% American Indian, .38% Asian, .13% Some other Race, 1.25% Two or more races, 1.16% Hispanic or Latino(of any race)
County Seat – West Branch (pop 1,926)

Ogemaw County is a swing county in Northeastern Michigan. It is east of Roscommon and Southwest of Grayling.

Government Officials Representing area:
Congressmen:
1st District – Bart Stupak (D)

State Senators:
36th District – Tony Stamas (R)

State Representative:
103rd District – Joel Sheltrown (D)

1998 Results Countywide:(Winners overall in bold)
Governor - John Engler (R) – 62.33%, Geoffrey Fieger (D) – 37.67%
Secretary of State - Candice Miller (R) – 68.78%, Mary Lou Parks (D) – 29.56%
Attorney General - Jennifer Granholm (D) – 56.48%, John Smietanka (R) – 43.52%

Congress:
4th District – Dave Camp (R) – 88.35%, Dan Marsh (Lib) – 6.94%

State Senators:
34th District – Tom Alley (D) – 64.63%, Joel Gougeon (R) – 35.37%

State Representative:
103rd District – Dale Sheltrown (D) – 60.14%, Don Birgel (R) – 39.86%


2000 Results Countywide
US Senate - Spence Abraham (R) – 52.13%, Debbie Stabenow (D) – 45.04%
Congress:
4th District – Dave Camp (R) – 65.18%, Lawrence Hollenbeck (D) – 31.98%,

State Representative:
103rd District – Dale Sheltrown (D) – 75.99%, Don Birgel (R) – 24.01%

2002 Results Countywide
Governor – Jennifer Granholm (D) – 49.54%, Dick Posthumus (R) – 49.04%
Secretary of State - Terri Lynn Land (R) – 53.29%, Butch Hollowell (D) – 43.57%
Attorney General – Gary Peters (D) – 51.20%, Mike Cox (R) – 45.74%
US Senate - Carl Levin (D) – 65.54%, Andrew "Rocky" Raczkowski (R) – 32.58%
Congress:
1st District – Bart Stupak (D) – 62.81%, Don Hooper (R) – 35.10%

State Senate:
36th District – Andy Neumann (D) – 54.98%, Tony Stamas (R) – 45.02%

State Representative:
103rd District – Dale Sheltrown (D) – 70.80%, Ken Carlson (R) – 29.20%

2004 Results Countywide
Congress:
1st District – Bart Stupak (D) – 65.03%, Don Hooper (R) – 33.10%

State Representative:
103rd District – Joel Sheltrown (D) – 65.66%, Bruce Rendon (R) – 34.34%

2000, 2004 Presidential Results
First number Bush, Second number Democrat
Areas that flipped are in Bold.

OGEMAW COUNTY
2000 – Bush - 4706 (47.75%), Gore – 4896 (49.68%)
2004 – Bush – 5454 (50.52%), Kerry – 5215 (48.30%)

Churchill Township
2000 - 349 (47.48%), 366 (49.80%)
2004 – 429 (50.65%), 414 (48.88%)

Cumming Township
2000 - 195 (52.28%), 171 (45.84%)
2004 – 232 (56.72%), 176 (43.03%)

Edwards Township
2000 - 335 (49.05%), 333 (48.76%)
2004 – 380 (50.20%), 361 (47.69%)

Foster Township
2000 - 197 (44.77%), 228 (51.82%)
2004 – 222 (45.96%), 254 (52.59%)

Goodar Township
2000 - 129 (50.59%), 120 (47.06%)
2004 – 127 (51.00%), 113 (45.38%)

Hill Township
2000 - 376 (43.57%), 463 (53.65%)
2004 – 438 (47.87%), 468 (51.15%)

Horton Township
2000 - 207 (51.62%), 189 (47.13%)
2004 – 248 (55.23%), 196 (43.65%)

Klacking Township
2000 - 148 (48.84%), 152 (50.17%)
2004 – 166 (49.40%), 166 (49.40%)

Logan Township
2000 - 116 (43.77%), 143 (53.96%)
2004 – 134 (47.86%), 142 (50.71%)

Mills Township
2000 - 531 (35.19%), 931 (61.70%)
2004 – 695 (41.37%), 962 (57.26%)

Ogemaw Township
2000 - 300 (46.73%), 323 (50.31%)
2004 – 343 (50.74%), 329 (48.67%)

Richland Township
2000 - 225 (49.23%), 219 (47.92%)
2004 – 244 (51.59%), 222 (46.93%)

Rose City
2000 - 129 (62.32%), 73 (35.27%)
2004 – 161 (62.65%), 94 (36.58%)

Rose Township
2000 - 349 (57.69%), 248 (40.99%)
2004 – 373 (53.52%), 315 (45.19%)

West Branch City
2000 - 433 (50.06%), 408 (47.17%)
2004 – 484 (51.76%), 442 (47.27%)

West Branch Township
2000 - 687 (55.00%), 529 (42.35%)
2004 – 781 (57.55%), 561 (41.34%)


Bush won Ogemaw County narrowly in 2004 after losing it narrowly in 2004. It’s a county like Alpena, Iosco, and Arenac which has a lot of democrat tradition, particulary at the local level. They prefer socially moderate/conservative democrats to the typical Ann Arbor liberal which shows in its voting patterns, supporting Sheltrown and Neumann, but not John Kerry.

Mills Township (Skidway Lake) sticks out (as does Richfield Township in nearby Roscommon County), and I’ve never figured out why those two areas are so much more democrat than the rest of the county. Most of Ogemaw County is marginal GOP or marginal democrat outside of Mills Township. Mills Township is SE of West Branch and borders Arenac County.

Redistricting significantly altered the political makeup of the district. Dave Camp’s district dropped Ogemaw County and gave it to Bart Stupak. Stupak will do well here until he retires since Ogemaw is similar to the UP in politics. For the state senate, Gougeon’s Bay City/Thumb district now stops at Arenac County. Ogemaw is now in a swing district that stretches from Midland to Alpena. Tony Stamas narrowly defeated Andy Neumann in the district, but Neumann won the county. For state rep, the district now stretches east to west from Iosco County on Lake Huron to Missuakee County(2nd most GOP county in the state). The district leans slightly GOP, but the Sheltrowns won it easily due to big wins in Iosco, Roscommon and Ogemaw.

I expect Ogemaw County to be heavily contested every election since every single district here is winnable by either party.

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