Friday, November 11, 2011

State House Redistricting - District 23 (HD-23)

State House - District 23
Current Rep – Pat Somerville (R-New Boston)

Declared Candidates:
Rep - Pat Sommerville (R-New Boston)
Dem - Tom Boritzki (D-Trenton)

2010 Results - Old District (23rd)
Pat Somerville - 15,927
Deb Kennedy - 13,877

Update - 8-30-2012 - Sommerville won his primary, and this will be probably won of the toughest defenses we have with Boritzki in Trenton.

Update 5-25-2012 - Sommerville has a primary, and this one could be interesting as he's running against a cop in Jeremy Cady. Boritzki's a strong democrat as the former mayor of Trenton.

This was one of the more surprising pickups from last election. In the past this is the type of district that I always considered "good enough to lose." It's been consistently democrat. It's always gone dem at the top of the ticket. Downticket, it's occasionally competitive, but never quite goes our way. It finally did. Somerville defeated an incumbent for this district as well.

The new district picks up Trenton. Trenton leans democrat, but can be competitive occasionally. It drops Sumpter Twp, Rockwood, and Flat Rock. Dropping Sumpter and Rockwood is good, but Somerville won Flat Rock.

The new district is still tough for a Republican. Nothing comes easy Downriver, and this is no different. Grosse Ile is a Republican base. Huron Township is slightly better than 50/50 for us. Gibralter, Trenton, and Woodhaven are usually close and can be competitive with the right matchup. Brownstown Twp is rough for a reason that I can't quite figure out. It's downriver and leans dem, but I'm not sure why Brownstown Township is more like Taylor in voting habits than like Huron Township or even Woodhaven. UAW and Airport are the easy answer, but that influences the whole district, including Huron Township and Woodhaven. I'm not surprised it leans democrat, but I am by the amount compared to the rest of the district.

With these numbers, I'll call it a swing district for Somerville, and a democrat leaning but winnable district if it is opened up. Tradition is still strong in Trenton, Woodhaven, and Downriver overall. It's still Dingell Country.



McCain Obama Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Brownstown Twp 5373 8668 14041 -3295 38.27% 61.73% -23.47%
Gibralter 1132 1313 2445 -181 46.30% 53.70% -7.40%
Grosse Ile 4023 2859 6882 1164 58.46% 41.54% 16.91%
Huron Twp 3669 3852 7521 -183 48.78% 51.22% -2.43%
Trenton 4908 5957 10865 -1049 45.17% 54.83% -9.65%
Woodhaven 2836 3781 6617 -945 42.86% 57.14% -14.28%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 21941 26430 48371 -4489 45.36% 54.64% -9.28%









Bush Kerry Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Brownstown Twp 5369 6916 12285 -1547 43.70% 56.30% -12.59%
Gibralter 1186 1271 2457 -85 48.27% 51.73% -3.46%
Grosse Ile 4435 2594 7029 1841 63.10% 36.90% 26.19%
Huron Twp 3578 3417 6995 161 51.15% 48.85% 2.30%
Trenton 5495 5778 11273 -283 48.74% 51.26% -2.51%
Woodhaven 3076 3380 6456 -304 47.65% 52.35% -4.71%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 23139 23356 46495 -217 49.77% 50.23% -0.47%








Last St House GOP DEM Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Brownstown Twp 3862 4323 8185 -461 47.18% 52.82% -5.63%
Gibralter 867 660 1527 207 56.78% 43.22% 13.56%
Grosse Ile 3405 1684 5089 1721 66.91% 33.09% 33.82%
Huron Twp 2694 2041 4735 653 56.90% 43.10% 13.79%
Trenton

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Woodhaven 2095 1869 3964 226 52.85% 47.15% 5.70%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 12923 10577 23500 2346 54.99% 45.01% 9.98%

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