Congressional District 11 (MI-11) - Updated

Update 2014: This is going to be an ugly race. Bentivolio has a tough primary against Trott. After that, the winner, likely wounded, will be facing a dem. Hopefully the dems all beat the hell out of each other.

MI-11 Update - 2013

The 2011 Update is here.

The 2009 Update is here.

Incumbent – Kerry Bentivolio (R-Milford Twp)
Years in office as of 2014 election – 2

Challengers – Dave Trott (R-Birmingham), Anil Kumar (D-Farmington), Bobby McKenzie (D-Canton), Bill Roberts (D-Livonia), Nancy Skinner (D-Birmingham)

2012:

Kerry Bentivolio – 180941 – 50.77%

Syed Taj  – 158101 – 44.36%

22840 vote difference

Romney – 198323 votes – 52.24%

Obama – 177959 votes – 46.87%

20364 vote difference.

2008: (Approx – Clawson, Rochester Hills, Northville, West Bloomfield reprecincted)

McCain – 48.35%

Obama –  50.14%

2004: (approx)

Bush – 55.86%

Kerry – 43.19%

Notes – Clawson, Rochester Hills, and West Bloomfield reprecincted which makes this tough to get good numbers. Northville (Wayne County Portion) either reported with the Township or their numbers in 2012 didn’t get posted. Clawson is slightly dem. Rochester Hills is R. The portion of West Bloomfield in this district is competitive compared to the portion in MI-14 that is staunchly democrat. I took a guess on 08 and 04 with those areas, and skipped the Wayne County part of Northville (city) in 2012 assuming it was reported with the township.

This district received a lot of attention in 2012. Thad McCotter, then incumbent ran for president. He then dropped and ran for congress. His campaign staff was caught in a major petition fraud scandal and McCotter resigned and did not run for re-election. The old district elected (on November) democrat David Curson to replace him for a short period. Kerry Bentivolio was the only name on the ballot. He beat write-ins, lost to Curson, and beat Syed Taj. At first, I thought there would be name bias against Taj due to some campaign experiences I’ve had. There wasn’t really. The congressional race generally went similar to the top of the ticket. The old district had some strong democrat areas no longer in the district.  

For the map, I’ll use the same color code, staying with the Dark Blue for 70% d areas that I used in Districts 5, 6, and 7

70%+Dem – Dark Blue

60%-69.99% - Blue

55%-59.99% - Slate Blue

50%-54.99% - Light Sky Blue

Less than 50% - Gold

R wins:

70%+Rep – Firebrick

60-69.99% - Red

55-59.99% - Orange Red

50-54.99% - Salmon

Less than 50% - Yellow

Tie – Spring Green

2012 (approx on map)

2008

2004

 

Starting at the southwest corner is the Wayne County portion of the map. That big blue spot in the SW is Canton Township (part of it on the map). Canton is becoming a trouble spot for it. It’s been tough for awhile, but it flipped big in 2008 and 2012.  The dems broke 55% here twice after Bush winning it twice. Part of it is the growing (and voting) Indian population, along with some migration from Westland and Ypsi/Ann Arbor. While there’s a lot of money in Canton, there’s also a bit of a populist streak here compared to Northville or Plymouth Twp’s next door. Some work has to be done here so that Canton is not the next Westland when it comes to voting.

Northeast of there is Livonia. Livonia is the largest city in the district and it’s usually consistent. Outside of the bad year of 2008, the Republicans have gotten in the low 50’s in the city rather consistently. It is a little more social conservative than most suburbs in that region, but also a little more populist than next door Plymouth/Northville. It’s largely white ethnic Catholic. Thad McCotter fit the district.

West of there is Plymouth and Northville. The townships are safe republican. Even McCain won them, although Bush got over 60% in Northville Twp. Romney got 58% in Northville Twp and 56% (Bush 57%) in Plymouth Twp. The city of Plymouth swings and votes for both R’s and D’s. Bush won it twice (barely). McCain was crushed. Romney lost it narrowly. I’m not sure how Romney did in the city of Northville on the Wayne County side, but it usually goes R, 2008 notwithstanding. Romney won it with 52% which is a far cry from Bush’s 55%+. That’s due to Canton being the 2^nd to Livonia in population in this district.

North of Livonia is Farmington. Farmington Hills surrounds 90% of Farmington, but is in the 14^th District. Farmington was consistently republicans as recently as 2005 or so. Romney did worse than McCain here by percentage and almost equal in votes. Bush’s 51% is now Romney’s 42.02%. Migration.

North of Northville Twp is Novi and the Oakland part of Northville which is slightly more R than the Wayne County part of Northville (City). Novi is a major danger zone and area of concern right now. If you told me 8 years ago that Obama would win Novi in 2008 and that Romney would get 50% there, I’d laugh in your face. It was 57% in 2004 and was 60%+ not long before that. It was a base city. Now it may become the next Farmington Hills. Migration is part of it, and so is the immigrant Indian population voting heavily democrat.

North of there is Wixom, Walled Lake, and Commerce Township. Commerce Township has stayed solid R. Romney’s 58% was just shy of Bush’s 59%. With West Bloomfield to the East, that’s a township to keep watch on. It hasn’t gone in the direction of Novi or Farmington Hills as least for now. Walled Lake is and was a swing area for a long time. Gore, Bush, Obama, and Romney won it. Wixom moved heavily dem after the Ford plant closed. One precinct is the major problem. It’s full of cheap apartments. A lot of the apartments were rented to commuted auto workers who needed a place to crash. After the plant closed, they all opened up to new residents. These apartments here aren’t exactly high dollar. Romney won three of the four precincts in Wixom, one by nearly 2-1. The largest precinct he lost  1185-378.

North of there is White Lake Twp. It’s safe R, although it dropped below 60% Bush got 61% here to Romney’s 58%. Along the western tier next to Novi, Wixom, Commerce, and White Lake are the most Republican parts of the district. Lyon Township, South Lyon, Milford Twp, and Highland Twp. Those areas aren’t much different than Livingston County in its politics. Those are 60%+ areas usually outside of the City of South Lyon which usually is still 55% or more R.

East of Commerce Twp is West Bloomfield Twp. Most of it, including the areas that make is solidly D, are in the 14^th district. The part here is competitive and sometimes goes R. Romney won the parts here. North of there is competitive Waterford Twp. Bush won it twice, but it wasn’t won easily. It’s historically blue collar white and pro-union. Part of that is still there. There are also some affluent areas in Waterford due to the lakefronts. There’s also some movement from Pontiac also affecting the area. Romney won it, but barely broke 50%. Bush did much better here in 04, although he struggled in 2000 here.

Lake Angelus next door has only about 250 voters and it’s 80%+R unless you’re McCain. Auburn Hills is another story. It was formerly Republican despite Oakland University until Pontiac moved there. Now it’s 25%+ black and went more dem in 2012 than 2008. Migration. East of Auburn Hills is Rochester Hills. It’s mostly in the 8^th. Part of it is a bridge to Troy. Troy leans R, but not like it was. Bush got 56% there. Romney got 52%. Troy has a large Indian population. Like Novi, if you told me it would go dem in 2008, I’d laugh in your face. I’m not laughing. Clawson south of Troy is tougher territory. It went for Gore, Bush, and Obama twice. I don’t know a lot of Clawson except driving through it.

Lastly, to the west of Troy is Birmingham and Bloomfield Hills. Birmingham is probably the most socially liberal somewhat republican area in the state. It’s very affluent and well known for its money. Romney did very well here, doing slightly better than Bush in 2004. McCain cratered here. Bloomfield Hills is more conservative, and was Romney’s best area outside of Sylvan Lake. He got 66%, running ahead of Bush here as well. When you hear about “moderate Oakland County”, this is the area that is usually described.

Overall, this is a district to watch. Can Republicans stop the bleeding here in Canton, Novi, and Troy? That’s a must, if Republicans are going to be competitive in the state, and it’s a must if this district wants to avoid hitting another Gary Peters type in 2008. Commerce Twp is also one to watch just due to geography, as is Livonia (East side in particular).

Another thing to watch here is a possible primary. There is a strong R bench in this district, and Bentivolio was not expected to be a congressman. He had the guts and good fortune to get his petitions in and have his name on the ballot in the primary. When McCotter was knocked out,  he was it, and he won in the general against a weak opponent. Will one of the Oakland Establishment run? If there’s a nasty primary, will the other side vote for the losing candidate or skip the race? This is going to be a real interesting district to watch in 2016.

MI-11:	Romney	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM
Oakland County
Auburn Hills	3776	5608	9512	-1832	39.70%	58.96%
Birmingham	7136	5826	13035	1310	54.74%	44.70%
Bloomfield Hills	1843	916	2767	927	66.61%	33.10%
Clawson 2	508	692	1220	-184	41.64%	56.72%
Clawson 3	572	617	1207	-45	47.39%	51.12%
Clawson 4	496	537	1059	-41	46.84%	50.71%
Clawson 5	724	786	1533	-62	47.23%	51.27%
Commerce Twp	12596	8673	21487	3923	58.62%	40.36%
Farmington	2471	3370	5881	-899	42.02%	57.30%
Highland Twp	6307	3847	10292	2460	61.28%	37.38%
Lake Angelus	216	38	256	178	84.38%	14.84%
Lyon Twp	5067	3025	8152	2042	62.16%	37.11%
Milford Twp	5673	3569	9317	2104	60.89%	38.31%
Northville	1203	927	2156	276	55.80%	43.00%
Novi	14714	14110	29074	604	50.61%	48.53%
Novi Twp	55	46	101	9	54.46%	45.54%
Rochester Hills 1-6	784	689	1493	95	52.51%	46.15%
RH 3-3	492	454	957	38	51.41%	47.44%
RH 3-13	552	432	992	120	55.65%	43.55%
South Lyon	3258	2427	5729	831	56.87%	42.36%
Troy	22316	19915	42588	2401	52.40%	46.76%
Walled Lake	1680	1638	3365	42	49.93%	48.68%
Waterford Twp	17896	17299	35645	597	50.21%	48.53%
West Bloomfield Twp 2	809	777	1605	32	50.40%	48.41%
WB 4	836	805	1656	31	50.48%	48.61%
WB 5	797	791	1602	6	49.75%	49.38%
WB 8	1036	805	1852	231	55.94%	43.47%
WB 14	612	555	1178	57	51.95%	47.11%
WB 25	845	753	1617	92	52.26%	46.57%
White Lake Twp	9168	6406	15753	2762	58.20%	40.67%
Wixom	3217	3229	6499	-12	49.50%	49.68%
Total	127655	109562	239580	18093	53.28%	45.73%
Wayne County
Canton Twp	19912	25021	45268	-5109	43.99%	55.27%
Livonia	28608	26229	55274	2379	51.76%	47.45%
Northville				0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Northville Twp	10085	7094	17248	2991	58.47%	41.13%
Plymouth	2506	2689	5239	-183	47.83%	51.33%
Plymouth Twp	9557	7364	17041	2193	56.08%	43.21%
Total	70668	68397	140070	2271	50.45%	48.83%
Total All	198323	177959	379650	20364	52.24%	46.87%