Wednesday, May 22, 2013

Congressional District 11 (MI-11) - Updated

Update 2014: This is going to be an ugly race. Bentivolio has a tough primary against Trott. After that, the winner, likely wounded, will be facing a dem. Hopefully the dems all beat the hell out of each other.



MI-11 Update - 2013

The 2011 Update is here.

The 2009 Update is here.
Incumbent – Kerry Bentivolio (R-Milford Twp)
Years in office as of 2014 election – 2

Challengers – Dave Trott (R-Birmingham), Anil Kumar (D-Farmington), Bobby McKenzie (D-Canton), Bill Roberts (D-Livonia), Nancy Skinner (D-Birmingham)

2012:
Kerry Bentivolio – 180941 – 50.77%
Syed Taj  – 158101 – 44.36%
22840 vote difference

Romney – 198323 votes – 52.24%
Obama – 177959 votes – 46.87%
20364 vote difference.

2008: (Approx – Clawson, Rochester Hills, Northville, West Bloomfield reprecincted)
McCain – 48.35%
Obama –  50.14%

2004: (approx)
Bush – 55.86%
Kerry – 43.19%

Notes – Clawson, Rochester Hills, and West Bloomfield reprecincted which makes this tough to get good numbers. Northville (Wayne County Portion) either reported with the Township or their numbers in 2012 didn’t get posted. Clawson is slightly dem. Rochester Hills is R. The portion of West Bloomfield in this district is competitive compared to the portion in MI-14 that is staunchly democrat. I took a guess on 08 and 04 with those areas, and skipped the Wayne County part of Northville (city) in 2012 assuming it was reported with the township.

This district received a lot of attention in 2012. Thad McCotter, then incumbent ran for president. He then dropped and ran for congress. His campaign staff was caught in a major petition fraud scandal and McCotter resigned and did not run for re-election. The old district elected (on November) democrat David Curson to replace him for a short period. Kerry Bentivolio was the only name on the ballot. He beat write-ins, lost to Curson, and beat Syed Taj. At first, I thought there would be name bias against Taj due to some campaign experiences I’ve had. There wasn’t really. The congressional race generally went similar to the top of the ticket. The old district had some strong democrat areas no longer in the district.  



For the map, I’ll use the same color code, staying with the Dark Blue for 70% d areas that I used in Districts 5, 6, and 7

70%+Dem – Dark Blue
60%-69.99% - Blue
55%-59.99% - Slate Blue
50%-54.99% - Light Sky Blue
Less than 50% - Gold
R wins:
70%+Rep – Firebrick
60-69.99% - Red
55-59.99% - Orange Red
50-54.99% - Salmon
Less than 50% - Yellow
Tie – Spring Green

2012 (approx on map)

MI-1112

2008

MI-1108

2004

 MI-1104

Starting at the southwest corner is the Wayne County portion of the map. That big blue spot in the SW is Canton Township (part of it on the map). Canton is becoming a trouble spot for it. It’s been tough for awhile, but it flipped big in 2008 and 2012.  The dems broke 55% here twice after Bush winning it twice. Part of it is the growing (and voting) Indian population, along with some migration from Westland and Ypsi/Ann Arbor. While there’s a lot of money in Canton, there’s also a bit of a populist streak here compared to Northville or Plymouth Twp’s next door. Some work has to be done here so that Canton is not the next Westland when it comes to voting.

Northeast of there is Livonia. Livonia is the largest city in the district and it’s usually consistent. Outside of the bad year of 2008, the Republicans have gotten in the low 50’s in the city rather consistently. It is a little more social conservative than most suburbs in that region, but also a little more populist than next door Plymouth/Northville. It’s largely white ethnic Catholic. Thad McCotter fit the district.

West of there is Plymouth and Northville. The townships are safe republican. Even McCain won them, although Bush got over 60% in Northville Twp. Romney got 58% in Northville Twp and 56% (Bush 57%) in Plymouth Twp. The city of Plymouth swings and votes for both R’s and D’s. Bush won it twice (barely). McCain was crushed. Romney lost it narrowly. I’m not sure how Romney did in the city of Northville on the Wayne County side, but it usually goes R, 2008 notwithstanding. Romney won it with 52% which is a far cry from Bush’s 55%+. That’s due to Canton being the 2nd to Livonia in population in this district.

North of Livonia is Farmington. Farmington Hills surrounds 90% of Farmington, but is in the 14th District. Farmington was consistently republicans as recently as 2005 or so. Romney did worse than McCain here by percentage and almost equal in votes. Bush’s 51% is now Romney’s 42.02%. Migration.

North of Northville Twp is Novi and the Oakland part of Northville which is slightly more R than the Wayne County part of Northville (City). Novi is a major danger zone and area of concern right now. If you told me 8 years ago that Obama would win Novi in 2008 and that Romney would get 50% there, I’d laugh in your face. It was 57% in 2004 and was 60%+ not long before that. It was a base city. Now it may become the next Farmington Hills. Migration is part of it, and so is the immigrant Indian population voting heavily democrat.

North of there is Wixom, Walled Lake, and Commerce Township. Commerce Township has stayed solid R. Romney’s 58% was just shy of Bush’s 59%. With West Bloomfield to the East, that’s a township to keep watch on. It hasn’t gone in the direction of Novi or Farmington Hills as least for now. Walled Lake is and was a swing area for a long time. Gore, Bush, Obama, and Romney won it. Wixom moved heavily dem after the Ford plant closed. One precinct is the major problem. It’s full of cheap apartments. A lot of the apartments were rented to commuted auto workers who needed a place to crash. After the plant closed, they all opened up to new residents. These apartments here aren’t exactly high dollar. Romney won three of the four precincts in Wixom, one by nearly 2-1. The largest precinct he lost  1185-378.

North of there is White Lake Twp. It’s safe R, although it dropped below 60% Bush got 61% here to Romney’s 58%. Along the western tier next to Novi, Wixom, Commerce, and White Lake are the most Republican parts of the district. Lyon Township, South Lyon, Milford Twp, and Highland Twp. Those areas aren’t much different than Livingston County in its politics. Those are 60%+ areas usually outside of the City of South Lyon which usually is still 55% or more R.

East of Commerce Twp is West Bloomfield Twp. Most of it, including the areas that make is solidly D, are in the 14th district. The part here is competitive and sometimes goes R. Romney won the parts here. North of there is competitive Waterford Twp. Bush won it twice, but it wasn’t won easily. It’s historically blue collar white and pro-union. Part of that is still there. There are also some affluent areas in Waterford due to the lakefronts. There’s also some movement from Pontiac also affecting the area. Romney won it, but barely broke 50%. Bush did much better here in 04, although he struggled in 2000 here.

Lake Angelus next door has only about 250 voters and it’s 80%+R unless you’re McCain. Auburn Hills is another story. It was formerly Republican despite Oakland University until Pontiac moved there. Now it’s 25%+ black and went more dem in 2012 than 2008. Migration. East of Auburn Hills is Rochester Hills. It’s mostly in the 8th. Part of it is a bridge to Troy. Troy leans R, but not like it was. Bush got 56% there. Romney got 52%. Troy has a large Indian population. Like Novi, if you told me it would go dem in 2008, I’d laugh in your face. I’m not laughing. Clawson south of Troy is tougher territory. It went for Gore, Bush, and Obama twice. I don’t know a lot of Clawson except driving through it.

Lastly, to the west of Troy is Birmingham and Bloomfield Hills. Birmingham is probably the most socially liberal somewhat republican area in the state. It’s very affluent and well known for its money. Romney did very well here, doing slightly better than Bush in 2004. McCain cratered here. Bloomfield Hills is more conservative, and was Romney’s best area outside of Sylvan Lake. He got 66%, running ahead of Bush here as well. When you hear about “moderate Oakland County”, this is the area that is usually described.

Overall, this is a district to watch. Can Republicans stop the bleeding here in Canton, Novi, and Troy? That’s a must, if Republicans are going to be competitive in the state, and it’s a must if this district wants to avoid hitting another Gary Peters type in 2008. Commerce Twp is also one to watch just due to geography, as is Livonia (East side in particular).

Another thing to watch here is a possible primary. There is a strong R bench in this district, and Bentivolio was not expected to be a congressman. He had the guts and good fortune to get his petitions in and have his name on the ballot in the primary. When McCotter was knocked out,  he was it, and he won in the general against a weak opponent. Will one of the Oakland Establishment run? If there’s a nasty primary, will the other side vote for the losing candidate or skip the race? This is going to be a real interesting district to watch in 2016.


MI-11: Romney Obama Total  Diff GOP  DEM
Oakland County





Auburn Hills 3776 5608 9512 -1832 39.70% 58.96%
Birmingham 7136 5826 13035 1310 54.74% 44.70%
Bloomfield Hills 1843 916 2767 927 66.61% 33.10%
Clawson 2 508 692 1220 -184 41.64% 56.72%
Clawson 3 572 617 1207 -45 47.39% 51.12%
Clawson 4 496 537 1059 -41 46.84% 50.71%
Clawson 5 724 786 1533 -62 47.23% 51.27%
Commerce Twp 12596 8673 21487 3923 58.62% 40.36%
Farmington 2471 3370 5881 -899 42.02% 57.30%
Highland Twp 6307 3847 10292 2460 61.28% 37.38%
Lake Angelus 216 38 256 178 84.38% 14.84%
Lyon Twp 5067 3025 8152 2042 62.16% 37.11%
Milford Twp 5673 3569 9317 2104 60.89% 38.31%
Northville  1203 927 2156 276 55.80% 43.00%
Novi 14714 14110 29074 604 50.61% 48.53%
Novi Twp 55 46 101 9 54.46% 45.54%
Rochester Hills 1-6 784 689 1493 95 52.51% 46.15%
RH 3-3 492 454 957 38 51.41% 47.44%
RH 3-13 552 432 992 120 55.65% 43.55%
South Lyon 3258 2427 5729 831 56.87% 42.36%
Troy 22316 19915 42588 2401 52.40% 46.76%
Walled Lake  1680 1638 3365 42 49.93% 48.68%
Waterford Twp 17896 17299 35645 597 50.21% 48.53%
West Bloomfield Twp 2 809 777 1605 32 50.40% 48.41%
WB 4 836 805 1656 31 50.48% 48.61%
WB 5 797 791 1602 6 49.75% 49.38%
WB 8 1036 805 1852 231 55.94% 43.47%
WB 14 612 555 1178 57 51.95% 47.11%
WB 25 845 753 1617 92 52.26% 46.57%
White Lake Twp 9168 6406 15753 2762 58.20% 40.67%
Wixom 3217 3229 6499 -12 49.50% 49.68%
Total 127655 109562 239580 18093 53.28% 45.73%







Wayne County





Canton Twp 19912 25021 45268 -5109 43.99% 55.27%
Livonia 28608 26229 55274 2379 51.76% 47.45%
Northville 


0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Northville Twp 10085 7094 17248 2991 58.47% 41.13%
Plymouth 2506 2689 5239 -183 47.83% 51.33%
Plymouth Twp 9557 7364 17041 2193 56.08% 43.21%
Total 70668 68397 140070 2271 50.45% 48.83%







Total All 198323 177959 379650 20364 52.24% 46.87%

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