Friday, November 11, 2011

State House Redistricting - District 19 (HD-19)

State House - District 19
Current Rep – John Walsh (R-Livonia)

Declared Candidates
Rep - John Walsh (R-Livonia)
Dem - Richard Tannous (D-Livonia)

2010 Results - Old District (19th)
John Walsh - 23,141
Joe Larkin - 11,671

The 19th changed very slightly. While it stays entirely in Livonia, it picks up more of the city, all except a few precincts bordering Garden city. I don't think the partisan leanings changed much, maybe slightly more democrat with more east side precincts.

Livonia has a reputation as a Republican area, but it's not always the case. Ed McNamara was mayor here before he became infamous as the boss of Wayne County. It's also Mike Duggan's home. Democrats can be competitive here and came relatively close to winning this district a few years back.

However, Republicans tend to win here more than they lose here. Livonia is a largely middle class and heavily Catholic area, with a bit of a labor influence. Center right and somewhat populist. This is the home of Thad McCotter and Mike Cox. John Walsh also won this district easily in two elections, including the bad year of 2008 where he was the only republican state rep in Wayne County. Walsh had strong name recognition from his time on city council and with Schoolcraft. His demeanor and record fits the district. I do expect this to be competitive in 2014 after term limits.

Livonia overall
2008:
Obama - 28,358
McCain - 28,190
(Dave's Redistricting has the vote spread of the district as +2 McCain)

2004:
Bush - 30,626
Kerry - 25,148

This district has a GOP reputation, but I'd say it's leanings are slight, not very strong. Keep an eye on Mike Duggan. He may want a comeback.

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