Congressional District 10 (MI-10) - Updated

Update 2014 - It will be a rematch between Candice Miller and Chuck Stadler.

MI-09 Update - 2013

The 2011 Update is here.

The 2009 Update is here.

Incumbent – Candice Miller (R-Harrison Twp)
Years in office as of 2014 election – 12

Challengers – Chuck Stadler (D-Vassar)

2012:

Candice Miller – 226075 – 68.80%

Chuck Stadler  – 97734 – 29.74%

128341 vote difference

Romney – 188038 votes – 55.21%

Obama – 148825 votes – 43.69%

39213 vote difference.

2008: (Approx – Sterling Hghts reprecincted)

McCain – 50.01%

Obama –  48.05%

2004: (approx)

Bush – 56.33%

Kerry – 42.60%

Notes – Sterling Heights reprecincted between 08/12. About 2/3 of Sterling Heights is in the 9^th, with the rest in the 10^th. Sterling Heights overall is about 1% more dem than the portion in MI-09.  As Sterling Heights is the 4^th largest city in Michigan (Warren is 3^rd), that throws off the vote spreads in 2008 and 2004, so I didn’t include them. I split the city 2/3 and 1/3 and added 200-300 R Votes and subtracted 200-300 D votes in my estimation. Caro in Tuscola County incorporated which changed numbers in Caro, Indianfields Twp, and Almer Twp. Indianfields Twp flipped to Romney, although Caro was blue. On the map, Caro wasn’t incorporated as a city, so I moved the two townships one color towards the dems.

This district is safe for Candice Miller. It’s also a Republican district on paper. On paper. In reality, this is a conservative leaning but volatile district (both North Macomb and the thumb). Areas McCain won voted dem for state rep here in that same year. 2008 elected Jennifer Haase and Terry Brown. Brown won again in 2012. John Espinoza was another dem state rep formerly representing Port Huron and Sanilac County. He won Sanilac County (The most R at the top of the ticket among Thumb Counties), so it wasn’t Port Huron outvoting its neighbor. Even usually solidly republican Lapeer County (up and down the ticket) recently used to have at times dem state reps. Without Miller, I’d call this district lean R due to a stronger than you’d expect democrat bench. John Espinoza and Terry Brown would be strong candidates. Mark Hackel would be tough if he was in this district (Sterling Heights). There’s no shortage of strong R candidates either like Mike Green, Phil Pavlov, and Pete Lund among others. This district doesn’t vote for social liberals.

For the map, I’ll use the same color code, staying with the Dark Blue for 70% d areas that I used in Districts 5, 6, and 7

70%+Dem – Dark Blue

60%-69.99% - Blue

55%-59.99% - Slate Blue

50%-54.99% - Light Sky Blue

Less than 50% - Gold

R wins:

70%+Rep – Firebrick

60-69.99% - Red

55-59.99% - Orange Red

50-54.99% - Salmon

Less than 50% - Yellow

Tie – Spring Green

2012 (approx on map)

Thumb voting is erratic and usually doesn’t have a set pattern. Starting with Huron County at the tip of the thumb. It’s an independent area that’s the home of Terry Brown. The only areas Romney lost are Bad Axe (swings) and Dwight Twp (always dem, but Romney almost won it). He tied in Meade Twp which is usually dem. Several John Kerry areas here went to Romney who did better here than Bush (older voters?) by percentage. Lake Twp, Harbor Beach, and Port Austin Twp flipped.  It’s often about 55% R at the top of the ticket in non-wave years, but it’s all about candidate quality in these parts. These are true independents and ticket splitters.

SW is the marginal county of Tuscola, which is probably the most pro-labor part of the thumb with its Bay/Saginaw influence to the west.  It’s often about 52-53% R at the top of the ticket, although usually only goes D downticket. McCain won it barely (but lost the part in MI-10). The area between Saginaw and Caro isn’t easy for us. Indianfields Twp “flipped” due to Caro being incorporated as a city. It’s close in non-wave elections. Romney won the rest of the county in the district, which Bush didn’t even do, but Bush did better in enough areas to get a slightly better percentage here. This is an independent area. Terry Brown did well here, as did Jim Barcia. Mike Green is from here and runs very well here.

East of Tuscola County is the safe on paper Republican Sanilac County. It’s often a top of the ticket stronghold, but can’t be taken for granted. John Espinoza won here, and I think Barcia did as well. Romney got 59% here. Bush got 60%. McCain was held to 52%. McCain lost a bunch of areas here. Bush lost one (Croswell) which Romney won. Romney lost Austin and Minden Townships which Bush won. That SE portion needs to be watched.

SW is Lapeer County.  It was a much more competitive county at least downticket a few years back. It’s become solidly R for the most part with a big of North Oakland County influence moving in around Metamora and Dryden Twps. There is a counterbalance here with the Flint area. Marathon Twp is solid D, and Oregon and Elba Twps south of there bear close watch as well. The City of  Lapeer is close as well. Arcadia Twp shows trouble as well for some reason. Romney didn’t do much different than McCain there (54% - down from 59%). Just north of there is North Branch Twp. That’s trouble as well. 58% Bush, 48% McCain, 52% Romney. Bush got 58% in this county in 2004, about a 5% increase from 2000. McCain was held to 50%. Romney got it back to 55%. The question is this. Will Lapeer County start voting more like North Oakland or like East Genesee? Or both? It’s a county we need to win big to be competitive statewide.

East of there is the longtime swing St Clair County. It may be starting to go our way consistently in non wave years after going for Clinton and some downticket dems (notably Bonior). Romney lost four areas. Bush lost three in 2004. McCain lost 10 (and the county). All lost Port Huron, Port Huron Twp, and Marine City. Those are solidly dem areas, especially Port Huron. Kimball Twp often goes democrat, but Bush won it in 04. Burtchville, Marysville, Fort Gratiot, Yale, and Algonac aren’t easy although Bush and Romney both won them. This is a key county for us, especially as Macomb is starting to heavily influence this area, especially around Algonac. Some of the best R areas are along the Macomb County border.

Lastly, North Macomb. Every pundit knows about the “Reagan Democrats.” Macomb County is generally populist, but that’s only part of it. Northern Macomb also has a lot of money and ex-Oakland County residents moving there. Shelby Township borders Rochester Hills as much as it borders Sterling Heights. It is the major R base in Macomb County. Unfortunately, we lost some ground there by percentage compared to 2004 when Bush broke 60% there. It's back to 2000 percentages. It’s fast growing and needed. Macomb Township next door is also solidly republican, but to a lesser extent than Shelby Twp. Armada Twp needs to get back to 60% as well. Ray Twp, Bruce Twp, Richmond, and Washington Twps are still strongholds. That bright blue spot is Lenox Twp. It’s long been democrat, but not as much as it was. The New Haven area has long had a sizable black population there. Bush won Lenox Twp in 2004, but it usually goes dem. South of there is Chesterfield Twp, New Baltimore and Harrison Twps. They lean R, but not always and usually under 55%. Part of Sterling Heights is in the district. Romney won this portion, although not by a big margin. Bush won it twice and we need to win it back. Macomb is still tricky at times however with ethnic and clique voting. Polish, Italian, and German names are often still an advantage, as is being in the right establishment. It’s a different world of politics than much of the state. 

This district has trended R compared to the 90’s, but I still can’t call it completely safe if Miller leaves. It’s one that should be ours on paper, but I’ve seen too many surprises with both Macomb and the thumb.

District 10	Romney	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM
Huron County
Bad Axe	613	640	1263	-27	48.54%	50.67%
Bingham Twp	423	323	750	100	56.40%	43.07%
Bloomfield Twp	118	82	207	36	57.00%	39.61%
Brookfield Twp	196	117	315	79	62.22%	37.14%
Caseville	202	186	391	16	51.66%	47.57%
Caseville Twp	650	436	1099	214	59.14%	39.67%
Chandler Twp	130	74	205	56	63.41%	36.10%
Colfax Twp	453	327	787	126	57.56%	41.55%
Dwight Twp	143	150	297	-7	48.15%	50.51%
Fairhaven Twp	248	233	486	15	51.03%	47.94%
Gore Twp	60	37	97	23	61.86%	38.14%
Grant Twp	191	155	351	36	54.42%	44.16%
Harbor Beach	396	360	760	36	52.11%	47.37%
Hume Twp	215	182	401	33	53.62%	45.39%
Huron Twp	133	79	213	54	62.44%	37.09%
Lake Twp	275	261	547	14	50.27%	47.71%
Lincoln Twp	170	123	299	47	56.86%	41.14%
McKinley Twp	138	88	227	50	60.79%	38.77%
Meade Twp	169	169	343	0	49.27%	49.27%
Oliver Twp	336	256	604	80	55.63%	42.38%
Paris Twp	115	91	206	24	55.83%	44.17%
Pointe Aux Baraques Twp	14	7	21	7	66.67%	33.33%
Port Austin Twp	434	370	811	64	53.51%	45.62%
Rubicon Twp	221	154	380	67	58.16%	40.53%
Sand Beach Twp	430	194	627	236	68.58%	30.94%
Sebewaing Twp	756	456	1229	300	61.51%	37.10%
Sheridan Twp	172	127	301	45	57.14%	42.19%
Sherman Twp	340	206	547	134	62.16%	37.66%
Sigel Twp	162	94	258	68	62.79%	36.43%
Verona Twp	313	258	579	55	54.06%	44.56%
Winsor Twp	590	283	883	307	66.82%	32.05%
Total	8806	6518	15484	2288	56.87%	42.10%
Lapeer County
Almont Twp	1951	1250	3230	701	60.40%	38.70%
Arcadia Twp	896	721	1649	175	54.34%	43.72%
Attica Twp	1324	1018	2376	306	55.72%	42.85%
Burlington Twp	378	239	630	139	60.00%	37.94%
Burnside Twp	545	279	838	266	65.04%	33.29%
Deerfield Twp	1375	1308	2725	67	50.46%	48.00%
Dryden Twp	1683	978	2695	705	62.45%	36.29%
Elba Twp	1584	1326	2959	258	53.53%	44.81%
Goodland Twp	559	367	938	192	59.59%	39.13%
Hadley Twp	1557	1065	2656	492	58.62%	40.10%
Imlay City	578	570	1177	8	49.11%	48.43%
Imlay Twp	878	517	1412	361	62.18%	36.61%
Lapeer	1460	1609	3117	-149	46.84%	51.62%
Lapeer Twp	1539	1138	2712	401	56.75%	41.96%
Marathon Twp	956	1229	2225	-273	42.97%	55.24%
Mayfield Twp	2110	1751	3904	359	54.05%	44.85%
Metamora Twp	1546	832	2400	714	64.42%	34.67%
North Branch Twp	857	741	1618	116	52.97%	45.80%
Oregon Twp	1526	1573	3126	-47	48.82%	50.32%
Rich Twp	432	285	728	147	59.34%	39.15%
Total	23734	18796	43115	4938	55.05%	43.60%
Macomb County
Armada Twp	1639	1093	2763	546	59.32%	39.56%
Bruce Twp	3092	1772	4909	1320	62.99%	36.10%
Chesterfield Twp	10986	9981	21191	1005	51.84%	47.10%
Harrison Twp	6803	6170	13100	633	51.93%	47.10%
Lenox Twp	1946	1995	3989	-49	48.78%	50.01%
Macomb Twp	22271	17714	40283	4557	55.29%	43.97%
Memphis	197	141	341	56	57.77%	41.35%
New Baltimore	3153	2710	5921	443	53.25%	45.77%
Ray Twp	1327	684	2041	643	65.02%	33.51%
Richmond	1601	1185	2829	416	56.59%	41.89%
Richmond Twp	1238	667	1919	571	64.51%	34.76%
Shelby Twp	22420	15281	38038	7139	58.94%	40.17%
Sterling Heights 29	647	557	1215	90	53.25%	45.84%
SH 30	354	464	835	-110	42.40%	55.57%
SH 34	780	647	1440	133	54.17%	44.93%
SH 35	386	595	995	-209	38.79%	59.80%
SH 36	827	666	1514	161	54.62%	43.99%
SH 37	688	766	1472	-78	46.74%	52.04%
SH 38	806	931	1761	-125	45.77%	52.87%
SH 39	595	641	1249	-46	47.64%	51.32%
SH 40	334	388	729	-54	45.82%	53.22%
SH 41	474	495	987	-21	48.02%	50.15%
SH 42	675	506	1195	169	56.49%	42.34%
SH 43	1241	910	2179	331	56.95%	41.76%
SH 44	675	490	1176	185	57.40%	41.67%
SH 45	747	704	1462	43	51.09%	48.15%
Utica	1121	1090	2251	31	49.80%	48.42%
Washington Twp	8597	4939	13652	3658	62.97%	36.18%
Total	95620	74182	171436	21438	55.78%	43.27%
St Clair County
Algonac	1021	820	1876	201	54.42%	43.71%
Berlin Twp	1015	536	1574	479	64.49%	34.05%
Brockway Twp	582	369	968	213	60.12%	38.12%
Burtchville Twp	1028	874	1925	154	53.40%	45.40%
Casco Twp	1200	726	1947	474	61.63%	37.29%
China Twp	1088	828	1938	260	56.14%	42.72%
Clay Twp	2769	1907	4727	862	58.58%	40.34%
Clyde Twp	1567	1174	2772	393	56.53%	42.35%
Columbus Twp	1228	743	1991	485	61.68%	37.32%
Cottrellville Twp	990	654	1660	336	59.64%	39.40%
East China Twp	1145	897	2064	248	55.47%	43.46%
Emmett Twp	677	541	1230	136	55.04%	43.98%
Fort Gratiot Twp	3107	2627	5770	480	53.85%	45.53%
Grant Twp	552	401	964	151	57.26%	41.60%
Greenwood Twp	366	305	682	61	53.67%	44.72%
Ira Twp	1309	847	2181	462	60.02%	38.84%
Kenockee Twp	682	514	1209	168	56.41%	42.51%
Kimball Twp	1957	1968	3979	-11	49.18%	49.46%
Lynn Twp	327	240	572	87	57.17%	41.96%
Marine City	818	978	1818	-160	44.99%	53.80%
Marysville	2646	2475	5180	171	51.08%	47.78%
Memphis	94	86	182	8	51.65%	47.25%
Mussey Twp	918	788	1727	130	53.16%	45.63%
Port Huron	4077	6233	10486	-2156	38.88%	59.44%
Port Huron Twp	2050	2200	4295	-150	47.73%	51.22%
Riley Twp	1000	615	1651	385	60.57%	37.25%
St Clair	1589	1250	2878	339	55.21%	43.43%
St Clair Twp	2192	1383	3620	809	60.55%	38.20%
Wales Twp	898	637	1561	261	57.53%	40.81%
Yale	379	367	754	12	50.27%	48.67%
Total	39271	33983	74181	5288	52.94%	45.81%
Sanilac County
Argyle Twp	167	106	276	61	60.51%	38.41%
Austin Twp	130	143	278	-13	46.76%	51.44%
Bridgehampton Twp	214	113	332	101	64.46%	34.04%
Brown City	255	207	465	48	54.84%	44.52%
Buel Twp	359	211	575	148	62.43%	36.70%
Croswell	428	422	865	6	49.48%	48.79%
Custer Twp	299	172	472	127	63.35%	36.44%
Delaware Twp	279	132	419	147	66.59%	31.50%
Elk Twp	385	257	646	128	59.60%	39.78%
Elmer Twp	260	102	367	158	70.84%	27.79%
Evergreen Twp	229	109	338	120	67.75%	32.25%
Flynn Twp	289	108	406	181	71.18%	26.60%
Forester Twp	297	200	502	97	59.16%	39.84%
Fremont Twp	235	196	436	39	53.90%	44.95%
Greenleaf Twp	197	122	322	75	61.18%	37.89%
Lamotte Twp	277	127	412	150	67.23%	30.83%
Lexington Twp	973	794	1782	179	54.60%	44.56%
Maple Valley Twp	331	169	506	162	65.42%	33.40%
Marion Twp	414	214	635	200	65.20%	33.70%
Marlette	420	244	677	176	62.04%	36.04%
Marlette Twp	549	291	843	258	65.12%	34.52%
Minden Twp	122	127	250	-5	48.80%	50.80%
Moore Twp	329	162	495	167	66.46%	32.73%
Sandusky	527	423	961	104	54.84%	44.02%
Sanilac Twp	723	545	1275	178	56.71%	42.75%
Speaker Twp	385	264	656	121	58.69%	40.24%
Washington Twp	413	228	653	185	63.25%	34.92%
Watertown Twp	380	205	586	175	64.85%	34.98%
Wheatland Twp	138	67	206	71	66.99%	32.52%
Worth Twp	959	752	1733	207	55.34%	43.39%
Total	10963	7212	18369	3751	59.68%	39.26%
Tuscola County
Akron Twp	427	276	710	151	60.14%	38.87%
Almer Twp	607	464	1077	143	56.36%	43.08%
Caro	810	935	1770	-125	45.76%	52.82%
Columbia Twp	357	255	619	102	57.67%	41.20%
Dayton Twp	503	436	949	67	53.00%	45.94%
Elkland Twp	925	643	1583	282	58.43%	40.62%
Ellington twp	383	248	644	135	59.47%	38.51%
Elmwood Twp	277	220	506	57	54.74%	43.48%
Fairgrove Twp	396	322	726	74	54.55%	44.35%
Fremont Twp	775	725	1525	50	50.82%	47.54%
Indianfields Twp	597	550	1164	47	51.29%	47.25%
Juniata Twp	462	408	882	54	52.38%	46.26%
Kingston Twp	362	270	639	92	56.65%	42.25%
Koylton Twp	386	256	658	130	58.66%	38.91%
Novesta Twp	390	236	639	154	61.03%	36.93%
Vassar Twp (pt)	881	863	1767	18	49.86%	48.84%
				0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Watertown Twp	514	494	1017	20	50.54%	48.57%
Wells Twp	389	371	780	18	49.87%	47.56%
Wisner Twp	203	162	369	41	55.01%	43.90%
Total	9644	8134	18024	1510	53.51%	45.13%
Total All	188038	148825	340609	39213	55.21%	43.69%