Sunday, May 19, 2013

Congressional District 10 (MI-10) - Updated

Update 2014 - It will be a rematch between Candice Miller and Chuck Stadler.


MI-09 Update - 2013

The 2011 Update is here.

The 2009 Update is here.
Incumbent – Candice Miller (R-Harrison Twp)
Years in office as of 2014 election – 12

Challengers – Chuck Stadler (D-Vassar)

2012:
Candice Miller – 226075 – 68.80%
Chuck Stadler  – 97734 – 29.74%
128341 vote difference

Romney – 188038 votes – 55.21%
Obama – 148825 votes – 43.69%
39213 vote difference.

2008: (Approx – Sterling Hghts reprecincted)
McCain – 50.01%
Obama –  48.05%

2004: (approx)
Bush – 56.33%
Kerry – 42.60%

Notes – Sterling Heights reprecincted between 08/12. About 2/3 of Sterling Heights is in the 9th, with the rest in the 10th. Sterling Heights overall is about 1% more dem than the portion in MI-09.  As Sterling Heights is the 4th largest city in Michigan (Warren is 3rd), that throws off the vote spreads in 2008 and 2004, so I didn’t include them. I split the city 2/3 and 1/3 and added 200-300 R Votes and subtracted 200-300 D votes in my estimation. Caro in Tuscola County incorporated which changed numbers in Caro, Indianfields Twp, and Almer Twp. Indianfields Twp flipped to Romney, although Caro was blue. On the map, Caro wasn’t incorporated as a city, so I moved the two townships one color towards the dems.

This district is safe for Candice Miller. It’s also a Republican district on paper. On paper. In reality, this is a conservative leaning but volatile district (both North Macomb and the thumb). Areas McCain won voted dem for state rep here in that same year. 2008 elected Jennifer Haase and Terry Brown. Brown won again in 2012. John Espinoza was another dem state rep formerly representing Port Huron and Sanilac County. He won Sanilac County (The most R at the top of the ticket among Thumb Counties), so it wasn’t Port Huron outvoting its neighbor. Even usually solidly republican Lapeer County (up and down the ticket) recently used to have at times dem state reps. Without Miller, I’d call this district lean R due to a stronger than you’d expect democrat bench. John Espinoza and Terry Brown would be strong candidates. Mark Hackel would be tough if he was in this district (Sterling Heights). There’s no shortage of strong R candidates either like Mike Green, Phil Pavlov, and Pete Lund among others. This district doesn’t vote for social liberals.

For the map, I’ll use the same color code, staying with the Dark Blue for 70% d areas that I used in Districts 5, 6, and 7

70%+Dem – Dark Blue
60%-69.99% - Blue
55%-59.99% - Slate Blue
50%-54.99% - Light Sky Blue
Less than 50% - Gold
R wins:
70%+Rep – Firebrick
60-69.99% - Red
55-59.99% - Orange Red
50-54.99% - Salmon
Less than 50% - Yellow
Tie – Spring Green

2012 (approx on map)

MI-10A

MI-10B

MI-10C

Thumb voting is erratic and usually doesn’t have a set pattern. Starting with Huron County at the tip of the thumb. It’s an independent area that’s the home of Terry Brown. The only areas Romney lost are Bad Axe (swings) and Dwight Twp (always dem, but Romney almost won it). He tied in Meade Twp which is usually dem. Several John Kerry areas here went to Romney who did better here than Bush (older voters?) by percentage. Lake Twp, Harbor Beach, and Port Austin Twp flipped.  It’s often about 55% R at the top of the ticket in non-wave years, but it’s all about candidate quality in these parts. These are true independents and ticket splitters.

SW is the marginal county of Tuscola, which is probably the most pro-labor part of the thumb with its Bay/Saginaw influence to the west.  It’s often about 52-53% R at the top of the ticket, although usually only goes D downticket. McCain won it barely (but lost the part in MI-10). The area between Saginaw and Caro isn’t easy for us. Indianfields Twp “flipped” due to Caro being incorporated as a city. It’s close in non-wave elections. Romney won the rest of the county in the district, which Bush didn’t even do, but Bush did better in enough areas to get a slightly better percentage here. This is an independent area. Terry Brown did well here, as did Jim Barcia. Mike Green is from here and runs very well here.

East of Tuscola County is the safe on paper Republican Sanilac County. It’s often a top of the ticket stronghold, but can’t be taken for granted. John Espinoza won here, and I think Barcia did as well. Romney got 59% here. Bush got 60%. McCain was held to 52%. McCain lost a bunch of areas here. Bush lost one (Croswell) which Romney won. Romney lost Austin and Minden Townships which Bush won. That SE portion needs to be watched.

SW is Lapeer County.  It was a much more competitive county at least downticket a few years back. It’s become solidly R for the most part with a big of North Oakland County influence moving in around Metamora and Dryden Twps. There is a counterbalance here with the Flint area. Marathon Twp is solid D, and Oregon and Elba Twps south of there bear close watch as well. The City of  Lapeer is close as well. Arcadia Twp shows trouble as well for some reason. Romney didn’t do much different than McCain there (54% - down from 59%). Just north of there is North Branch Twp. That’s trouble as well. 58% Bush, 48% McCain, 52% Romney. Bush got 58% in this county in 2004, about a 5% increase from 2000. McCain was held to 50%. Romney got it back to 55%. The question is this. Will Lapeer County start voting more like North Oakland or like East Genesee? Or both? It’s a county we need to win big to be competitive statewide.

East of there is the longtime swing St Clair County. It may be starting to go our way consistently in non wave years after going for Clinton and some downticket dems (notably Bonior). Romney lost four areas. Bush lost three in 2004. McCain lost 10 (and the county). All lost Port Huron, Port Huron Twp, and Marine City. Those are solidly dem areas, especially Port Huron. Kimball Twp often goes democrat, but Bush won it in 04. Burtchville, Marysville, Fort Gratiot, Yale, and Algonac aren’t easy although Bush and Romney both won them. This is a key county for us, especially as Macomb is starting to heavily influence this area, especially around Algonac. Some of the best R areas are along the Macomb County border.

Lastly, North Macomb. Every pundit knows about the “Reagan Democrats.” Macomb County is generally populist, but that’s only part of it. Northern Macomb also has a lot of money and ex-Oakland County residents moving there. Shelby Township borders Rochester Hills as much as it borders Sterling Heights. It is the major R base in Macomb County. Unfortunately, we lost some ground there by percentage compared to 2004 when Bush broke 60% there. It's back to 2000 percentages. It’s fast growing and needed. Macomb Township next door is also solidly republican, but to a lesser extent than Shelby Twp. Armada Twp needs to get back to 60% as well. Ray Twp, Bruce Twp, Richmond, and Washington Twps are still strongholds. That bright blue spot is Lenox Twp. It’s long been democrat, but not as much as it was. The New Haven area has long had a sizable black population there. Bush won Lenox Twp in 2004, but it usually goes dem. South of there is Chesterfield Twp, New Baltimore and Harrison Twps. They lean R, but not always and usually under 55%. Part of Sterling Heights is in the district. Romney won this portion, although not by a big margin. Bush won it twice and we need to win it back. Macomb is still tricky at times however with ethnic and clique voting. Polish, Italian, and German names are often still an advantage, as is being in the right establishment. It’s a different world of politics than much of the state. 

This district has trended R compared to the 90’s, but I still can’t call it completely safe if Miller leaves. It’s one that should be ours on paper, but I’ve seen too many surprises with both Macomb and the thumb.


District 10 Romney Obama Total  Diff GOP  DEM
Huron County





Bad Axe 613 640 1263 -27 48.54% 50.67%
Bingham Twp 423 323 750 100 56.40% 43.07%
Bloomfield Twp 118 82 207 36 57.00% 39.61%
Brookfield Twp 196 117 315 79 62.22% 37.14%
Caseville 202 186 391 16 51.66% 47.57%
Caseville Twp 650 436 1099 214 59.14% 39.67%
Chandler Twp 130 74 205 56 63.41% 36.10%
Colfax Twp 453 327 787 126 57.56% 41.55%
Dwight Twp 143 150 297 -7 48.15% 50.51%
Fairhaven Twp 248 233 486 15 51.03% 47.94%
Gore Twp 60 37 97 23 61.86% 38.14%
Grant Twp 191 155 351 36 54.42% 44.16%
Harbor Beach 396 360 760 36 52.11% 47.37%
Hume Twp 215 182 401 33 53.62% 45.39%
Huron Twp 133 79 213 54 62.44% 37.09%
Lake Twp 275 261 547 14 50.27% 47.71%
Lincoln Twp 170 123 299 47 56.86% 41.14%
McKinley Twp 138 88 227 50 60.79% 38.77%
Meade Twp 169 169 343 0 49.27% 49.27%
Oliver Twp 336 256 604 80 55.63% 42.38%
Paris Twp 115 91 206 24 55.83% 44.17%
Pointe Aux Baraques Twp 14 7 21 7 66.67% 33.33%
Port Austin Twp 434 370 811 64 53.51% 45.62%
Rubicon Twp 221 154 380 67 58.16% 40.53%
Sand Beach Twp 430 194 627 236 68.58% 30.94%
Sebewaing Twp 756 456 1229 300 61.51% 37.10%
Sheridan Twp 172 127 301 45 57.14% 42.19%
Sherman Twp 340 206 547 134 62.16% 37.66%
Sigel Twp 162 94 258 68 62.79% 36.43%
Verona Twp 313 258 579 55 54.06% 44.56%
Winsor Twp 590 283 883 307 66.82% 32.05%
Total 8806 6518 15484 2288 56.87% 42.10%







Lapeer County





Almont Twp 1951 1250 3230 701 60.40% 38.70%
Arcadia Twp 896 721 1649 175 54.34% 43.72%
Attica Twp 1324 1018 2376 306 55.72% 42.85%
Burlington Twp 378 239 630 139 60.00% 37.94%
Burnside Twp 545 279 838 266 65.04% 33.29%
Deerfield Twp 1375 1308 2725 67 50.46% 48.00%
Dryden Twp 1683 978 2695 705 62.45% 36.29%
Elba Twp 1584 1326 2959 258 53.53% 44.81%
Goodland Twp 559 367 938 192 59.59% 39.13%
Hadley Twp 1557 1065 2656 492 58.62% 40.10%
Imlay City 578 570 1177 8 49.11% 48.43%
Imlay Twp 878 517 1412 361 62.18% 36.61%
Lapeer   1460 1609 3117 -149 46.84% 51.62%
Lapeer Twp 1539 1138 2712 401 56.75% 41.96%
Marathon Twp 956 1229 2225 -273 42.97% 55.24%
Mayfield Twp 2110 1751 3904 359 54.05% 44.85%
Metamora Twp 1546 832 2400 714 64.42% 34.67%
North Branch Twp 857 741 1618 116 52.97% 45.80%
Oregon Twp 1526 1573 3126 -47 48.82% 50.32%
Rich Twp 432 285 728 147 59.34% 39.15%
Total 23734 18796 43115 4938 55.05% 43.60%







Macomb County





Armada Twp 1639 1093 2763 546 59.32% 39.56%
Bruce Twp 3092 1772 4909 1320 62.99% 36.10%
Chesterfield Twp 10986 9981 21191 1005 51.84% 47.10%
Harrison Twp 6803 6170 13100 633 51.93% 47.10%
Lenox Twp 1946 1995 3989 -49 48.78% 50.01%
Macomb Twp 22271 17714 40283 4557 55.29% 43.97%
Memphis 197 141 341 56 57.77% 41.35%
New Baltimore 3153 2710 5921 443 53.25% 45.77%
Ray Twp 1327 684 2041 643 65.02% 33.51%
Richmond 1601 1185 2829 416 56.59% 41.89%
Richmond Twp 1238 667 1919 571 64.51% 34.76%
Shelby Twp 22420 15281 38038 7139 58.94% 40.17%
Sterling Heights 29 647 557 1215 90 53.25% 45.84%
SH 30 354 464 835 -110 42.40% 55.57%
SH 34 780 647 1440 133 54.17% 44.93%
SH 35 386 595 995 -209 38.79% 59.80%
SH 36 827 666 1514 161 54.62% 43.99%
SH 37 688 766 1472 -78 46.74% 52.04%
SH 38 806 931 1761 -125 45.77% 52.87%
SH 39 595 641 1249 -46 47.64% 51.32%
SH 40 334 388 729 -54 45.82% 53.22%
SH 41 474 495 987 -21 48.02% 50.15%
SH 42 675 506 1195 169 56.49% 42.34%
SH 43 1241 910 2179 331 56.95% 41.76%
SH 44  675 490 1176 185 57.40% 41.67%
SH 45 747 704 1462 43 51.09% 48.15%
Utica 1121 1090 2251 31 49.80% 48.42%
Washington Twp 8597 4939 13652 3658 62.97% 36.18%
Total 95620 74182 171436 21438 55.78% 43.27%







St Clair County





Algonac 1021 820 1876 201 54.42% 43.71%
Berlin Twp 1015 536 1574 479 64.49% 34.05%
Brockway Twp 582 369 968 213 60.12% 38.12%
Burtchville Twp 1028 874 1925 154 53.40% 45.40%
Casco Twp 1200 726 1947 474 61.63% 37.29%
China Twp 1088 828 1938 260 56.14% 42.72%
Clay Twp 2769 1907 4727 862 58.58% 40.34%
Clyde Twp 1567 1174 2772 393 56.53% 42.35%
Columbus Twp 1228 743 1991 485 61.68% 37.32%
Cottrellville Twp 990 654 1660 336 59.64% 39.40%
East China Twp 1145 897 2064 248 55.47% 43.46%
Emmett Twp 677 541 1230 136 55.04% 43.98%
Fort Gratiot Twp 3107 2627 5770 480 53.85% 45.53%
Grant Twp 552 401 964 151 57.26% 41.60%
Greenwood Twp 366 305 682 61 53.67% 44.72%
Ira Twp 1309 847 2181 462 60.02% 38.84%
Kenockee Twp 682 514 1209 168 56.41% 42.51%
Kimball Twp 1957 1968 3979 -11 49.18% 49.46%
Lynn Twp 327 240 572 87 57.17% 41.96%
Marine City 818 978 1818 -160 44.99% 53.80%
Marysville 2646 2475 5180 171 51.08% 47.78%
Memphis 94 86 182 8 51.65% 47.25%
Mussey Twp 918 788 1727 130 53.16% 45.63%
Port Huron 4077 6233 10486 -2156 38.88% 59.44%
Port Huron Twp 2050 2200 4295 -150 47.73% 51.22%
Riley Twp 1000 615 1651 385 60.57% 37.25%
St Clair 1589 1250 2878 339 55.21% 43.43%
St Clair Twp 2192 1383 3620 809 60.55% 38.20%
Wales Twp 898 637 1561 261 57.53% 40.81%
Yale 379 367 754 12 50.27% 48.67%
Total 39271 33983 74181 5288 52.94% 45.81%







Sanilac County





Argyle Twp 167 106 276 61 60.51% 38.41%
Austin Twp 130 143 278 -13 46.76% 51.44%
Bridgehampton Twp 214 113 332 101 64.46% 34.04%
Brown City 255 207 465 48 54.84% 44.52%
Buel Twp 359 211 575 148 62.43% 36.70%
Croswell  428 422 865 6 49.48% 48.79%
Custer Twp 299 172 472 127 63.35% 36.44%
Delaware Twp 279 132 419 147 66.59% 31.50%
Elk Twp 385 257 646 128 59.60% 39.78%
Elmer Twp 260 102 367 158 70.84% 27.79%
Evergreen Twp 229 109 338 120 67.75% 32.25%
Flynn Twp 289 108 406 181 71.18% 26.60%
Forester Twp 297 200 502 97 59.16% 39.84%
Fremont Twp 235 196 436 39 53.90% 44.95%
Greenleaf Twp 197 122 322 75 61.18% 37.89%
Lamotte Twp 277 127 412 150 67.23% 30.83%
Lexington Twp 973 794 1782 179 54.60% 44.56%
Maple Valley Twp 331 169 506 162 65.42% 33.40%
Marion Twp 414 214 635 200 65.20% 33.70%
Marlette  420 244 677 176 62.04% 36.04%
Marlette Twp 549 291 843 258 65.12% 34.52%
Minden Twp 122 127 250 -5 48.80% 50.80%
Moore Twp 329 162 495 167 66.46% 32.73%
Sandusky  527 423 961 104 54.84% 44.02%
Sanilac Twp 723 545 1275 178 56.71% 42.75%
Speaker Twp 385 264 656 121 58.69% 40.24%
Washington Twp 413 228 653 185 63.25% 34.92%
Watertown Twp 380 205 586 175 64.85% 34.98%
Wheatland Twp 138 67 206 71 66.99% 32.52%
Worth Twp 959 752 1733 207 55.34% 43.39%
Total 10963 7212 18369 3751 59.68% 39.26%







Tuscola County





Akron Twp 427 276 710 151 60.14% 38.87%
Almer Twp 607 464 1077 143 56.36% 43.08%
Caro 810 935 1770 -125 45.76% 52.82%
Columbia Twp 357 255 619 102 57.67% 41.20%
Dayton Twp 503 436 949 67 53.00% 45.94%
Elkland Twp 925 643 1583 282 58.43% 40.62%
Ellington twp 383 248 644 135 59.47% 38.51%
Elmwood Twp 277 220 506 57 54.74% 43.48%
Fairgrove Twp 396 322 726 74 54.55% 44.35%
Fremont Twp 775 725 1525 50 50.82% 47.54%
Indianfields Twp 597 550 1164 47 51.29% 47.25%
Juniata Twp 462 408 882 54 52.38% 46.26%
Kingston Twp 362 270 639 92 56.65% 42.25%
Koylton Twp 386 256 658 130 58.66% 38.91%
Novesta Twp 390 236 639 154 61.03% 36.93%
Vassar Twp (pt) 881 863 1767 18 49.86% 48.84%




0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Watertown Twp 514 494 1017 20 50.54% 48.57%
Wells Twp 389 371 780 18 49.87% 47.56%
Wisner Twp 203 162 369 41 55.01% 43.90%
Total 9644 8134 18024 1510 53.51% 45.13%







Total All 188038 148825 340609 39213 55.21% 43.69%

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