There will be no primary. Ron Paul Republican George Brikho is battling Sander Levin.
MI-09 Update - 2013
The 2011 Update is here.
The 2009 Update is here.
Incumbent – Sander Levin
(D-Royal Oak)
Years in office as of 2014 election – 32
Challengers – George Brikho (R-Sterling Heights)
Years in office as of 2014 election – 32
Challengers – George Brikho (R-Sterling Heights)
2012:
Don Volaric – 114760 – 34.02%
Sander Levin – 208846
– 61.91%
-94086 vote
difference
Romney – 146185 votes – 41.80%
Obama – 171684 votes – 57.06%
-53380 vote difference.
2008: (Approx – Sterling Hghts/Clawson reprecincted)
McCain – 40.38% (slightly lower)
Obama – 57.76%
(slightly higher)
2004: (approx)
Bush – 46.62% (Slightly lower)
Kerry – 52.71% (slightly higher)
Notes – Clawson and Sterling Heights Reprecincted. About 2/3
of Sterling Heights is in the 9th, with the rest in the 10th.
Sterling Heights overall is about 1% less dem than the portion in MI-10. As Sterling Heights is the 4th largest
city in Michigan (Warren is 3rd), that throws off the vote spreads
in 2008 and 2004, so I didn’t include them. I used all of Sterling Heights,
including the 10th District portion, in the 2004/2008 numbers.
Outside of a miracle year for us, this is a safe democrat
district even if Sander Levin retires with his brother, likely getting safer
with migration. Redistricting made this district less democrat than it was, but
not enough to put this in play. It was meant to keep Peters from going for the
11th District and was a little overly cautious IMO.
For the map, I’ll use the same color code, staying with the
Dark Blue for 70% d areas that I used in Districts 5, 6, 7, and 8.
70%+Dem – Dark Blue
60%-69.99% - Blue
55%-59.99% - Slate Blue
50%-54.99% - Light Sky Blue
Less than 50% - Gold
R wins:
70%+Rep – Firebrick
60-69.99% - Red
55-59.99% - Orange Red
50-54.99% - Salmon
Less than 50% - Yellow
Tie – Spring Green
2012 (approx on map)
2008
2004
Starting with Oakland County, Bloomfield Township is the odd
municipality out. It’s the home of Gary Peters, but a Republican area. Romney
grew up either here or in next door Bloomfield Hills (in MI-11). Bush (58%) did
better than Romney (57%) here, and McCain didn’t do well here barely winning it
with 52%. South of there is Southfield Township, except nobody outside of
election result followers call it Southfield Township. Southfield Township has
nothing to do with Southfield outside of being a neighbor. It is the
combination of three villages - Bingham Farms. Franklin, and Beverly Hills.
They are all highly affluent areas. Bingham Farms is largely office buildings
along Telegraph. Southfield Township leans slightly Republican, although Obama
won it in 08. East of there are the “slateblue” colored Royal Oak, Berkley, and
Madison Heights. They are all bluing areas (and yuppie in Royal Oak and Berkley’s
case), although Romney controlled the bleeding some. Bush kept them all under
55% in 04, but Bush did worse there in 04 than in 2000 unlike most of the
state. Obama cracked 60% in Royal Oak
and Berkley (and 59% in Madison Heights) back in 08. Romney cut the vote spread
deficit from 8500 to 6000 in Royal Oak and 2150 to 1700 in Berkley. It was 3600
and 712 for Bush who was not a cultural fit at all for Royal Oak and Berkley. Madison
Heights is trouble. Romney improved his percentage from 38 to 39% there, but
had less raw votes than McCain. I haven’t figured that city out.
The major dem base here is the SE end. Huntington Woods is south
of Berkley. It’s possibly the most socially liberal part of Michigan outside of
Ann Arbor. Romney actually did better than Bush here with 28.79% and 1240 votes.
McCain had 24.02%. Pleasant Ridge next
door isn’t much different except less Jewish. Romney didn’t do as well as Bush
here, but better than McCain - 31.59% for Romney to 27.61% McCain and 36.23%
Bush. Ferndale next door is the gay capital of SE Michigan. It’s also gaining
blacks from Detroit with migration. It took Huntington Woods and became the
most dem part of Oakland County that isn’t minority-majority. Romney did worse
than McCain here in both raw votes and percentage. 67.87% Kerry, 74.85% Obama
08 and 75.96% Obama 12. Hazel Park is either getting influenced by Ferndale or
Detroit. It was historically blue collar white. It’s going the same way as
Ferndale. 60.62% Kerry. 64.56% Obama 08 and 66.52% Obama 12. The pundits love
to talk about the “moderate” in Oakland County voters. This area (like MI-08
for opposite reasons) isn’t it. You have more of that in parts of MI-11.
The majority of this district is in Southern Macomb County.
It’s also democrat, although a much different type of democrat than you’ll get
in Ferndale or downtown Royal Oak. It’s UAW country. Southern Macomb County is
also changing in migration. It showed in the election results of Warren, Center
Line, Roseville (which long had an established black population) and Eastpointe.
Obama did better by percentage in all of those areas in 2012 than in 2008. That’s
due to black migration in, and white migration out. It’s not just Polish and Italian there
anymore. Warren – 55.60% Kerry, 59.34% Obama, 61.19% Obama. Center Line 58.21%
Kerry, 61.78% Obama, 63.02% Obama. Roseville 59% Kerry, 62.81% Obama, 63.57%
Obama. Eastpointe 61.87% Kerry, 69.05% Obama, 73.82% Obama. Eastpointe will
likely be black majority in five years. East of there is St Clair Shores which
is still heavily white ethnic. Romney lost raw votes there but gained a
percentage point over McCain. It’s been very stable in presidential elections
ranging between 50-52% dem. It’s more social conservative. In the SE Corner is
a small portion of Grosse Pt Shores. It used to be Lake Township and was
annexed. That’s the firebrick spot in the corner.
Northwest of there is Sterling Heights, an area to watch. Bush
won it twice narrowly overall. I’m not sure if he won the portion in the
district. It was real close. Romney lost it narrowly as Obama got 50.4% overall
and 51.35% in the district portion. It’s long been a swing area with a mix of
white ethnics (Poles, Germans and Italians), Chaldeans, Middle Eastern
Christians, and a gaining Indian and black (less so than Warren) population. It’s an area Republicans need to win back at
the top of the ticket to be competitive in Michigan.
East of there is Fraser, Clinton Township and Mt Clemens.
Fraser is competitive, but leans labor dem. It’s usually close. Mt Clemens is
dem, and has until recently been the most democrat part of Macomb County. It’s
Bonior country. It’s shrinking population and Romney had less raw votes there
than McCain although gained in percentage. Obama still got 66% there twice due
to labor and minorities. Clinton Township is erratic with some base areas on
both sides. Overall it leans democrat, but there are some bigtime R precincts
there as well as bigtime D precincts there. The eastern part of the township is
bigtime dem due to labor and minorities. The western part is more republican
leaning. Bush almost took it in 2004, but it wasn’t that close for Obama. Was
that due to a higher turnout in the eastern part of the township? I don’t know.
It’s an area we need to reduce our margins in to compete statewide.
This district was intended to be a blue sink and it does its
job there. Berkley, Pontiac, Farmington Hills, and Royal Oak were Knollenberg’s
downfall. Royal Oak and Berkley are now here. SE Macomb was put here to push
Bonior’s retirement/gubernatorial run. Bonior ran big in St Clair Shores and
Easpointe. R’s don’t need to win the district to be competitive statewide, but
need to come close. Sterling Heights, Clinton Township, and St Clair Shores are
three major keys. Those areas need to be won to win statewide. It’s been done,
so it’s not impossible. Congressionally, the only one I see with a chance (and
an outside one) with the right opponent is Tory Rocca who is a state senator
who won a district he had no business winning in 2010. (Roseville, Sterling
Heights, Frasier, Clinton Twp, Utica). Unless I see a 2010 year and a matchup
like that, this is safe dem.
District 9 | Romney | Obama | Total | Diff | GOP | DEM |
Macomb County | ||||||
Center Line | 1293 | 2284 | 3624 | -991 | 35.68% | 63.02% |
Clinton Twp | 21369 | 25678 | 47455 | -4309 | 45.03% | 54.11% |
Eastpointe | 3829 | 11303 | 15311 | -7474 | 25.01% | 73.82% |
Fraser | 3616 | 3946 | 7645 | -330 | 47.30% | 51.62% |
Grosse Pt Shores (pt) | 32 | 10 | 42 | 22 | 76.19% | 23.81% |
Mt Clemens | 2270 | 4615 | 6982 | -2345 | 32.51% | 66.10% |
Roseville | 6993 | 12736 | 20035 | -5743 | 34.90% | 63.57% |
St Clair Shores | 15903 | 16991 | 33308 | -1088 | 47.75% | 51.01% |
Sterling Hghts 1 | 419 | 559 | 1024 | -140 | 40.92% | 54.59% |
SH 2 | 686 | 891 | 1590 | -205 | 43.14% | 56.04% |
SH 3 | 727 | 1023 | 1763 | -296 | 41.24% | 58.03% |
SH 4 | 852 | 1060 | 1931 | -208 | 44.12% | 54.89% |
SH 5 | 761 | 1036 | 1812 | -275 | 42.00% | 57.17% |
SH 6 | 547 | 511 | 1066 | 36 | 51.31% | 47.94% |
SH 7 | 776 | 850 | 1640 | -74 | 47.32% | 51.83% |
SH 8 | 630 | 553 | 1193 | 77 | 52.81% | 46.35% |
SH 9 | 358 | 364 | 734 | -6 | 48.77% | 49.59% |
SH 10 | 759 | 761 | 1527 | -2 | 49.71% | 49.84% |
SH 11 | 462 | 459 | 931 | 3 | 49.62% | 49.30% |
SH 12 | 764 | 809 | 1583 | -45 | 48.26% | 51.11% |
SH 13 | 490 | 618 | 1121 | -128 | 43.71% | 55.13% |
SH 14 | 372 | 598 | 985 | -226 | 37.77% | 60.71% |
SH 15 | 505 | 436 | 949 | 69 | 53.21% | 45.94% |
SH 16 | 512 | 574 | 1095 | -62 | 46.76% | 52.42% |
SH 17 | 530 | 537 | 1080 | -7 | 49.07% | 49.72% |
SH 18 | 691 | 715 | 1418 | -24 | 48.73% | 50.42% |
SH 19 | 743 | 958 | 1731 | -215 | 42.92% | 55.34% |
SH 20 | 725 | 756 | 1496 | -31 | 48.46% | 50.53% |
SH 21 | 398 | 437 | 844 | -39 | 47.16% | 51.78% |
SH 22 | 564 | 624 | 1198 | -60 | 47.08% | 52.09% |
SH 23 | 585 | 517 | 1117 | 68 | 52.37% | 46.28% |
SH 24 | 549 | 559 | 1118 | -10 | 49.11% | 50.00% |
SH 25 | 879 | 880 | 1785 | -1 | 49.24% | 49.30% |
SH 26 | 1028 | 683 | 1721 | 345 | 59.73% | 39.69% |
SH 27 | 794 | 709 | 1525 | 85 | 52.07% | 46.49% |
SH 28 | 662 | 569 | 1245 | 93 | 53.17% | 45.70% |
SH 31 | 328 | 464 | 801 | -136 | 40.95% | 57.93% |
SH 32 | 209 | 369 | 582 | -160 | 35.91% | 63.40% |
SH 33 | 573 | 502 | 1089 | 71 | 52.62% | 46.10% |
Warren | 22110 | 35830 | 58554 | -13720 | 37.76% | 61.19% |
Total | 96293 | 133774 | 232650 | -37481 | 41.39% | 57.50% |
Oakland County | ||||||
Berkley | 3648 | 5348 | 9117 | -1700 | 40.01% | 58.66% |
Bloomfield Twp | 15811 | 11734 | 27710 | 4077 | 57.06% | 42.35% |
Clawson 1 | 767 | 946 | 1737 | -179 | 44.16% | 54.46% |
Ferndale | 2259 | 7809 | 10281 | -5550 | 21.97% | 75.96% |
Hazel Park | 1937 | 4055 | 6096 | -2118 | 31.77% | 66.52% |
Huntington Woods | 1240 | 3037 | 4307 | -1797 | 28.79% | 70.51% |
Madison Heights | 4774 | 7197 | 12154 | -2423 | 39.28% | 59.22% |
Pleasant Ridge | 574 | 1226 | 1817 | -652 | 31.59% | 67.47% |
Royal Oak | 13866 | 19911 | 34256 | -6045 | 40.48% | 58.12% |
Southfield Twp | 5016 | 4528 | 9599 | 488 | 52.26% | 47.17% |
Total | 49892 | 65791 | 117074 | -15899 | 42.62% | 56.20% |
Total All | 146185 | 199565 | 349724 | -53380 | 41.80% | 57.06% |
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