Friday, May 17, 2013

Congressional District 9 (MI-09) - Updated

Update 2014:
There will be no primary. Ron Paul Republican George Brikho is battling Sander Levin.



MI-09 Update - 2013

The 2011 Update is here.

The 2009 Update is here.
Incumbent – Sander Levin  (D-Royal Oak)
Years in office as of 2014 election – 32

Challengers – George Brikho (R-Sterling Heights)

2012:
Don Volaric – 114760 – 34.02%
Sander Levin  – 208846 – 61.91%
-94086  vote difference

Romney – 146185 votes – 41.80%
Obama – 171684 votes – 57.06%
-53380 vote difference.

2008: (Approx – Sterling Hghts/Clawson reprecincted)
McCain – 40.38% (slightly lower)
Obama –  57.76% (slightly higher)

2004: (approx)
Bush – 46.62% (Slightly lower)
Kerry – 52.71% (slightly higher)

Notes – Clawson and Sterling Heights Reprecincted. About 2/3 of Sterling Heights is in the 9th, with the rest in the 10th. Sterling Heights overall is about 1% less dem than the portion in MI-10.  As Sterling Heights is the 4th largest city in Michigan (Warren is 3rd), that throws off the vote spreads in 2008 and 2004, so I didn’t include them. I used all of Sterling Heights, including the 10th District portion, in the 2004/2008 numbers.

Outside of a miracle year for us, this is a safe democrat district even if Sander Levin retires with his brother, likely getting safer with migration. Redistricting made this district less democrat than it was, but not enough to put this in play. It was meant to keep Peters from going for the 11th District and was a little overly cautious IMO.

For the map, I’ll use the same color code, staying with the Dark Blue for 70% d areas that I used in Districts 5, 6, 7, and 8.

70%+Dem – Dark Blue
60%-69.99% - Blue
55%-59.99% - Slate Blue
50%-54.99% - Light Sky Blue
Less than 50% - Gold
R wins:
70%+Rep – Firebrick
60-69.99% - Red
55-59.99% - Orange Red
50-54.99% - Salmon
Less than 50% - Yellow
Tie – Spring Green

2012 (approx on map)
MI-0912

2008
MI-0908

2004
  MI-0904

Starting with Oakland County, Bloomfield Township is the odd municipality out. It’s the home of Gary Peters, but a Republican area. Romney grew up either here or in next door Bloomfield Hills (in MI-11). Bush (58%) did better than Romney (57%) here, and McCain didn’t do well here barely winning it with 52%. South of there is Southfield Township, except nobody outside of election result followers call it Southfield Township. Southfield Township has nothing to do with Southfield outside of being a neighbor. It is the combination of three villages - Bingham Farms. Franklin, and Beverly Hills. They are all highly affluent areas. Bingham Farms is largely office buildings along Telegraph. Southfield Township leans slightly Republican, although Obama won it in 08. East of there are the “slateblue” colored Royal Oak, Berkley, and Madison Heights. They are all bluing areas (and yuppie in Royal Oak and Berkley’s case), although Romney controlled the bleeding some. Bush kept them all under 55% in 04, but Bush did worse there in 04 than in 2000 unlike most of the state.  Obama cracked 60% in Royal Oak and Berkley (and 59% in Madison Heights) back in 08. Romney cut the vote spread deficit from 8500 to 6000 in Royal Oak and 2150 to 1700 in Berkley. It was 3600 and 712 for Bush who was not a cultural fit at all for Royal Oak and Berkley. Madison Heights is trouble. Romney improved his percentage from 38 to 39% there, but had less raw votes than McCain. I haven’t figured that city out.

The major dem base here is the SE end. Huntington Woods is south of Berkley. It’s possibly the most socially liberal part of Michigan outside of Ann Arbor. Romney actually did better than Bush here with 28.79% and 1240 votes. McCain had 24.02%.  Pleasant Ridge next door isn’t much different except less Jewish. Romney didn’t do as well as Bush here, but better than McCain - 31.59% for Romney to 27.61% McCain and 36.23% Bush. Ferndale next door is the gay capital of SE Michigan. It’s also gaining blacks from Detroit with migration. It took Huntington Woods and became the most dem part of Oakland County that isn’t minority-majority. Romney did worse than McCain here in both raw votes and percentage. 67.87% Kerry, 74.85% Obama 08 and 75.96% Obama 12. Hazel Park is either getting influenced by Ferndale or Detroit. It was historically blue collar white. It’s going the same way as Ferndale. 60.62% Kerry. 64.56% Obama 08 and 66.52% Obama 12. The pundits love to talk about the “moderate” in Oakland County voters. This area (like MI-08 for opposite reasons) isn’t it. You have more of that in parts of MI-11.

The majority of this district is in Southern Macomb County. It’s also democrat, although a much different type of democrat than you’ll get in Ferndale or downtown Royal Oak. It’s UAW country. Southern Macomb County is also changing in migration. It showed in the election results of Warren, Center Line, Roseville (which long had an established black population) and Eastpointe. Obama did better by percentage in all of those areas in 2012 than in 2008. That’s due to black migration in, and white migration out.  It’s not just Polish and Italian there anymore. Warren – 55.60% Kerry, 59.34% Obama, 61.19% Obama. Center Line 58.21% Kerry, 61.78% Obama, 63.02% Obama. Roseville 59% Kerry, 62.81% Obama, 63.57% Obama. Eastpointe 61.87% Kerry, 69.05% Obama, 73.82% Obama. Eastpointe will likely be black majority in five years. East of there is St Clair Shores which is still heavily white ethnic. Romney lost raw votes there but gained a percentage point over McCain. It’s been very stable in presidential elections ranging between 50-52% dem. It’s more social conservative. In the SE Corner is a small portion of Grosse Pt Shores. It used to be Lake Township and was annexed. That’s the firebrick spot in the corner.

Northwest of there is Sterling Heights, an area to watch. Bush won it twice narrowly overall. I’m not sure if he won the portion in the district. It was real close. Romney lost it narrowly as Obama got 50.4% overall and 51.35% in the district portion. It’s long been a swing area with a mix of white ethnics (Poles, Germans and Italians), Chaldeans, Middle Eastern Christians, and a gaining Indian and black (less so than Warren) population.  It’s an area Republicans need to win back at the top of the ticket to be competitive in Michigan.

East of there is Fraser, Clinton Township and Mt Clemens. Fraser is competitive, but leans labor dem. It’s usually close. Mt Clemens is dem, and has until recently been the most democrat part of Macomb County. It’s Bonior country. It’s shrinking population and Romney had less raw votes there than McCain although gained in percentage. Obama still got 66% there twice due to labor and minorities. Clinton Township is erratic with some base areas on both sides. Overall it leans democrat, but there are some bigtime R precincts there as well as bigtime D precincts there. The eastern part of the township is bigtime dem due to labor and minorities. The western part is more republican leaning. Bush almost took it in 2004, but it wasn’t that close for Obama. Was that due to a higher turnout in the eastern part of the township? I don’t know. It’s an area we need to reduce our margins in to compete statewide.

This district was intended to be a blue sink and it does its job there. Berkley, Pontiac, Farmington Hills, and Royal Oak were Knollenberg’s downfall. Royal Oak and Berkley are now here. SE Macomb was put here to push Bonior’s retirement/gubernatorial run. Bonior ran big in St Clair Shores and Easpointe. R’s don’t need to win the district to be competitive statewide, but need to come close. Sterling Heights, Clinton Township, and St Clair Shores are three major keys. Those areas need to be won to win statewide. It’s been done, so it’s not impossible. Congressionally, the only one I see with a chance (and an outside one) with the right opponent is Tory Rocca who is a state senator who won a district he had no business winning in 2010. (Roseville, Sterling Heights, Frasier, Clinton Twp, Utica). Unless I see a 2010 year and a matchup like that, this is safe dem. 


District 9 Romney Obama Total  Diff GOP  DEM
Macomb County





Center Line 1293 2284 3624 -991 35.68% 63.02%
Clinton Twp 21369 25678 47455 -4309 45.03% 54.11%
Eastpointe 3829 11303 15311 -7474 25.01% 73.82%
Fraser 3616 3946 7645 -330 47.30% 51.62%
Grosse Pt Shores (pt) 32 10 42 22 76.19% 23.81%
Mt Clemens 2270 4615 6982 -2345 32.51% 66.10%
Roseville 6993 12736 20035 -5743 34.90% 63.57%
St Clair Shores 15903 16991 33308 -1088 47.75% 51.01%
Sterling Hghts 1 419 559 1024 -140 40.92% 54.59%
SH 2 686 891 1590 -205 43.14% 56.04%
SH 3 727 1023 1763 -296 41.24% 58.03%
SH 4 852 1060 1931 -208 44.12% 54.89%
SH 5 761 1036 1812 -275 42.00% 57.17%
SH 6 547 511 1066 36 51.31% 47.94%
SH 7 776 850 1640 -74 47.32% 51.83%
SH 8 630 553 1193 77 52.81% 46.35%
SH 9 358 364 734 -6 48.77% 49.59%
SH 10 759 761 1527 -2 49.71% 49.84%
SH 11 462 459 931 3 49.62% 49.30%
SH 12 764 809 1583 -45 48.26% 51.11%
SH 13 490 618 1121 -128 43.71% 55.13%
SH 14 372 598 985 -226 37.77% 60.71%
SH 15 505 436 949 69 53.21% 45.94%
SH 16 512 574 1095 -62 46.76% 52.42%
SH 17 530 537 1080 -7 49.07% 49.72%
SH 18 691 715 1418 -24 48.73% 50.42%
SH 19 743 958 1731 -215 42.92% 55.34%
SH 20 725 756 1496 -31 48.46% 50.53%
SH 21 398 437 844 -39 47.16% 51.78%
SH 22 564 624 1198 -60 47.08% 52.09%
SH 23 585 517 1117 68 52.37% 46.28%
SH 24 549 559 1118 -10 49.11% 50.00%
SH 25 879 880 1785 -1 49.24% 49.30%
SH 26 1028 683 1721 345 59.73% 39.69%
SH 27 794 709 1525 85 52.07% 46.49%
SH 28 662 569 1245 93 53.17% 45.70%
SH 31 328 464 801 -136 40.95% 57.93%
SH 32 209 369 582 -160 35.91% 63.40%
SH 33 573 502 1089 71 52.62% 46.10%
Warren 22110 35830 58554 -13720 37.76% 61.19%
Total 96293 133774 232650 -37481 41.39% 57.50%







Oakland County





Berkley 3648 5348 9117 -1700 40.01% 58.66%
Bloomfield Twp 15811 11734 27710 4077 57.06% 42.35%
Clawson 1 767 946 1737 -179 44.16% 54.46%
Ferndale 2259 7809 10281 -5550 21.97% 75.96%
Hazel Park 1937 4055 6096 -2118 31.77% 66.52%
Huntington Woods 1240 3037 4307 -1797 28.79% 70.51%
Madison Heights 4774 7197 12154 -2423 39.28% 59.22%
Pleasant Ridge 574 1226 1817 -652 31.59% 67.47%
Royal Oak 13866 19911 34256 -6045 40.48% 58.12%
Southfield Twp 5016 4528 9599 488 52.26% 47.17%
Total 49892 65791 117074 -15899 42.62% 56.20%







Total All 146185 199565 349724 -53380 41.80% 57.06%


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