Saturday, April 20, 2013

Congressional District 1 - Updated 2014 (MI-01)

2014 - Update (4-24-14)
The filing deadline is in. Benishek has a primary against Alan Arcand, a yooper, and the winner will face democrat Jerry Cannon. Dems are high on Cannon, but I don't see this flipping to a troll who lives below the bridge. This is a "yooper" district even with more population in the lower peninsula because the UP is where there are more independents who will vote based on geography.

Gary McDowell was a good candidate who could have won the district in the right year. Some candidates can put this in major play. Jerry Cannon doesn't scare me.


MI-01 Update - 2014


Incumbent - Dr. Dan Benishek (R-Iron River)
Years in office as of 2014 election - 4.

Challengers – Alan Arcand (R-Iron River), Jerry Cannon (D-Kalkaska)

2012:
Dan Benishek – 167060 – 48.14%
Gary McDowell – 165719 – 47.75%
1341 vote difference

Romney – 189907 votes – 53.50%
Obama – 160582 votes – 45.24%
29325 vote difference.

2008:
McCain – 179009 votes – 48.45%
Obama – 183693 votes – 49.72%
-4684 vote difference

2004:
Bush – 200045 votes – 54.73%
Kerry – 161237 votes – 44.11%
38808 vote difference

The Secretary of State released their precinct results out for all state level elections in that area. With that out, I can compare 2012 to 2008 to 2004 presidential elections and comment on trends seen here. This is the first of a look at all of the districts. We'll start with congressional districts, and go all the way down to state rep and then the counties. Eventually.

For Romney, MI-01 stopped a lot of the McCain bleeding. He didn’t do as well as Bush here in 04 in most areas but came fairly close in percentage. Bush 04 did the best here of non wave year candidates in a long time. There’s been a lot of population shifts here in different areas.  Some areas are noticeably moving to the right and others to the left with migration, retirement, fewer yellow dogs, and migration (2nd mention). One thing I noticed in much of these areas are less overall votes. Romney in some areas had less votes than McCain, but had a better percentage than he did, even sometimes rivaling Bush 04 which overperformed this district. 

Romney possibly saved Benishek, however that map is so much different than the presidential maps that I really can’t compare them. http://www.redracinghorses.com/diary/2891/mi01-analysis-2012">My preliminary map covers that well.
 McDowell overperformed Obama and Benishek underperformed Romney. My comment on Benishek remains this. I don't think Benishek's out of the woods, but I think the fact that he survived against a McDowell (always was stronger than given credit in 2010) in a non-2010 setting and a target on his back was a show of strength. If Benishek can do it again, he should be okay outside of a wave year. What he needs to work on is what Stupak's top strength is. Constituent issues. That takes time, and Benishek should do better there with experience.
Color Code:
Since I’m colorblind and have trouble differencing shades, I’ll use this.
Dwins
70%+Dem – Black
60%-69.99% - Blue
55%-59.99% - Slate Blue
50%-54.99% - Light Sky Blue
Less than 50% - Gold
R wins:
70%+Rep – Firebrick
60-69.99% - Red
55-59.99% - Orange Red
50-54.99% - Salmon
Less than 50% - Yellow
Tie – White

Here’s the 2012 presidential map by township/city.
MI01-A

MI01-b

MI-01B

MI-01c

I had to guess a couple of township borders, but most are accurate. (That small part cut off is Mason County - the portion of which Romney won with about 51%) What I like with a regional map that the counties don’t necessarily show is when areas nearby on borders vote similar. Some of the “R” strongholds are deceptive until you see the map. That 60%+ patch of Romney votes in the Eastern UP overlaps part of four counties. Luce, Mackinac, Chippewa, and Schoolcraft. Schoolcraft is historically a democrat area, due to Manistique. One thing to remember is that even in stronghold or historically stronghhold counties, the other party may have a small but significant base. Berrien County and Kent County are two of the biggest example of this in Michigan. Frankenmuth area is another example on a smaller scale.

Even with that, this applies more with top of the ticket. Stupak won ALL of this area. McDowell’s from one of those big red spots in southern Chippewa County. Rudyard. He won it. Romney got 63% there. Bush 62%. I don’t believe in PVI at all. Top of the ticket is important, but so Is historical downticket strength. Alger County was overall 50% for Romney, but is usually blue. Obama got his numbers in Munising, but did not do well at all outside of there.

Marquette County shows how blue that entire county is. It’s not just blue due to Northern Michigan University, but due to the union tradition as well. Ishpeming is as dem as Marquette, at least by percentage. Richmond Township is the king here by percentage. It went 69.52% Kerry, 71.88% Obama08 and even higher at 72.48% Obama12 even as Marquette County went from 59.35% Obama in 08 down to 56.26% (Kerry got 53.60% - difference was largely 900 extra votes for O in Marquette and Ishpeming) Richmond Twp is consistent. The dem raw votes there ranged from 316 to 322 in each election. The R vote dropped from 135 to 107. They probably moved out. I’m not sure how it’s more democrat than Marquette, although it’s the home of the Empire mine.

Gogebic County in the Western UP is a democrat stronghold, but not all of it is. That eastern portion is more tied to Ontonagon County (leans GOP, sometimes goes Dem) and Iron County (was dem stronghold, now swing). Ironwood and Wakefield area dominate Gogebic county. That’s the most yellow dog spot in the UP outside of Marquette and is an old (former) mining area. Superior Wisconsin and Duluth are probably an influence there as well.

Houghton County is treading a little more dem. Bush did well there twice, but Michigan Tech is becoming a tougher as that university is following the others, although to a lesser extent.  Houghton’s about 5% more dem than it was in 04 and that’s put the county now in the lean R instead of safe R category (despite McCain winning it). The suburbs and rural areas are still with us there.

Delta and Menominee Counties are historically democrat, but now swing counties.  Dickinson has been more R than the others for awhile now. I can’t call any non Eastern UP county a base county right now due to history, but if any are about to become one, Dickinson County will. (Houghton was). Even Iron Mountain and Kingsford are going more R. The City of Menominee is still dem (not sure about its neighbor Marinette Wisconsin), as is Escanaba (less so). The rest of those areas are capable of wild swings, although the Stephenson area (Menominee) and Bark River (Delta) are (at least top of ticket) strongholds.

The Eastern UP is historically more Republican, but the dems have some strength in the Chippewa communities. They aren’t as dem as South Dakota’s Sioux, but they aren’t Oklahoma or Eastern Tennessee Cherokee either. Bay Mills (Chippewa majority) is solidly 54-62% dem. Sault Ste Marie swings but has some dem strength in Lake Superior State U. Obama won it twice, the second time with 50%. St Ignace also swings. The township is more dem than the city (rare) due to the Chippewa population. It’s slightly dem leaning, but winnable for R’s. The famous Mackinac Island swings as well.  

The Northern Lower Peninsula has a lot of solid R 55-60% territory. Emmet, Otsego, and Antrim are three county strongholds for the R’s, along with the suburbs and rural areas outside of Traverse City. The dems have some strength in the Alpena/Presque Isle area (labor is stronger in NE Michigan), Frankfort area, Traverse City itself (outvoted by townships), and Manistee (more labor than most of NW Michigan). Parts of Leelanau County are treading D, as is Traverse City which attracts a lot of Ann Arbor types. A lot of the resort areas are competitive, but the townships around them often are not as competitive outside of Benzie County and a few areas in Leelanau and Mason Counties. Townships around the more labor influenced areas are more competitive (Manistee, Alpena, Presque Isle). Manistee, Alpena, Benzie, and Presque Isle Counties are swing areas, although Manistee is more D than R except for 04. Leelanau flipped in 08, but came back in 2012. I’ll call that lean R due to history, but keep an eye on it. Alpena County leaned dem, but is starting to go our way. The city itself is now in the low 50% for dems consistently. Presque Isle is usually 1-2% to the right of Alpena. 

Both parties have a decent bench here. 2010 took out a lot of the dem bench, but don't write them off for dead. Marquette survived the 2010 wave without a problem. The 110th State Rep seat flipped back (HD-110) thanks to Gogebic County. There isn't much in the lower penninsula, but this is a Yooper based district to this day (and geography still matters here - a dem from Traverse City won't win here).  Benishek will likely have another tough opponent in 2014. We'll see how close that race will be.  

Blogspot wouldn't let me post both 08 and 2012 here, so I'll have to just stick with the 2012 results here. 


MI-01






Romney Obama Total  Diff GOP  DEM
Alcona County


0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Alcona Twp 455 254 716 201 63.55% 35.47%
Caledonia twp 384 287 676 97 56.80% 42.46%
Curtis Twp 321 317 644 4 49.84% 49.22%
Greenbush Twp 432 318 759 114 56.92% 41.90%
Gustin Twp 210 123 334 87 62.87% 36.83%
Harrisville 136 119 255 17 53.33% 46.67%
Harrisville Twp 472 290 767 182 61.54% 37.81%
Hawes Twp 341 230 577 111 59.10% 39.86%
Haynes Twp 265 175 449 90 59.02% 38.98%
Mikado Twp 295 166 468 129 63.03% 35.47%
Millen Twp 114 113 228 1 50.00% 49.56%
Mitchell Twp 146 80 231 66 63.20% 34.63%
Total 3571 2472 6104 1099 58.50% 40.50%







Alger County





Au train Twp 352 275 633 77 55.61% 43.44%
Burt Twp 202 132 340 70 59.41% 38.82%
Grand Island Twp 10 16 26 -6 38.46% 61.54%
Limestone Twp 130 104 236 26 55.08% 44.07%
Mathias Twp 102 148 253 -46 40.32% 58.50%
Munising 454 591 1071 -137 42.39% 55.18%
Munising Twp 623 479 1117 144 55.77% 42.88%
Onota Twp 136 128 273 8 49.82% 46.89%
Rock River Twp 321 339 669 -18 47.98% 50.67%
Total 2330 2212 4618 118 50.45% 47.90%







Alpena County


0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Alpena 2185 2444 4704 -259 46.45% 51.96%
Alpena Twp 2359 2269 4676 90 50.45% 48.52%
Green Twp 353 241 601 112 58.74% 40.10%
Long Rapids Twp 282 205 489 77 57.67% 41.92%
Maple Ridge Twp 407 337 753 70 54.05% 44.75%
Ossineke Twp 522 273 799 249 65.33% 34.17%
Sanborn Twp 540 409 958 131 56.37% 42.69%
Wellington Twp 68 53 121 15 56.20% 43.80%
Wilson Twp 582 318 913 264 63.75% 34.83%
Total 7298 6549 14014 749 52.08% 46.73%







Antrim County





Banks Twp 657 295 970 362 67.73% 30.41%
Central Lake Twp 750 476 1241 274 60.44% 38.36%
Chestonia Twp 132 93 229 39 57.64% 40.61%
Custer Twp 427 233 664 194 64.31% 35.09%
Echo Twp 275 193 472 82 58.26% 40.89%
Elk Rapids Twp 1032 723 1772 309 58.24% 40.80%
Forest Home Twp 751 475 1238 276 60.66% 38.37%
Helena Twp 379 282 670 97 56.57% 42.09%
Jordan Twp 232 218 455 14 50.99% 47.91%
Kearney Twp 621 360 991 261 62.66% 36.33%
Mancelona Twp 836 637 1505 199 55.55% 42.33%
Milton Twp 908 558 1481 350 61.31% 37.68%
Star Twp 269 156 437 113 61.56% 35.70%
Torch Lake Twp 538 345 890 193 60.45% 38.76%
Warner Twp 110 63 180 47 61.11% 35.00%
Total 7917 5107 13195 2810 60.00% 38.70%







Baraga County


0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Arvon Twp 185 95 288 90 64.24% 32.99%
Baraga Twp 593 555 1162 38 51.03% 47.76%
Covington Twp 139 113 256 26 54.30% 44.14%
L'Anse Twp 886 718 1625 168 54.52% 44.18%
Spurr Twp 63 93 159 -30 39.62% 58.49%
Total 1866 1574 3490 292 53.47% 45.10%







Benzie County





Almira Twp 1153 850 2024 303 56.97% 42.00%
Benzonia Twp 785 762 1564 23 50.19% 48.72%
Blaine Twp 198 145 345 53 57.39% 42.03%
Colfax Twp 155 150 308 5 50.32% 48.70%
Crystal Lake Twp 331 352 685 -21 48.32% 51.39%
Frankfort  302 390 697 -88 43.33% 55.95%
Gilmore Twp 177 289 472 -112 37.50% 61.23%
Homestead Twp 547 558 1121 -11 48.80% 49.78%
Inland Twp 595 445 1060 150 56.13% 41.98%
Joyfield Twp 227 221 451 6 50.33% 49.00%
Lake Twp 370 276 650 94 56.92% 42.46%
Platte Twp 96 123 222 -27 43.24% 55.41%
Weldon Twp 139 124 263 15 52.85% 47.15%




0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 5075 4685 9862 390 51.46% 47.51%







Charlevoix County





Bay Twp 448 322 777 126 57.66% 41.44%
Boyne City 915 821 1759 94 52.02% 46.67%
Boyne Valley Twp 331 308 643 23 51.48% 47.90%
Chandler Twp 75 62 140 13 53.57% 44.29%
Charlevoix  793 688 1492 105 53.15% 46.11%
Charlevoix Twp 583 400 989 183 58.95% 40.44%
East Jordan 450 403 862 47 52.20% 46.75%
Evangeline Twp 285 164 450 121 63.33% 36.44%
Eveline Twp 612 366 985 246 62.13% 37.16%
Hayes Twp 664 493 1166 171 56.95% 42.28%
Hudson Twp 180 141 328 39 54.88% 42.99%
Marion Twp 577 325 912 252 63.27% 35.64%
Melrose Twp 383 293 692 90 55.35% 42.34%
Norwood Twp 303 173 481 130 62.99% 35.97%
Peaine Twp 152 121 276 31 55.07% 43.84%
South Arm Twp 615 316 944 299 65.15% 33.47%
St James Twp 116 130 248 -14 46.77% 52.42%
Wilson Twp 518 414 946 104 54.76% 43.76%
Total 8000 5940 14090 2060 56.78% 42.16%







Cheboygan County





Aloha Twp 309 246 561 63 55.08% 43.85%
Beaugrand Twp 351 287 645 64 54.42% 44.50%
Benton Twp 963 749 1730 214 55.66% 43.29%
Burt Twp 341 144 489 197 69.73% 29.45%
Cheboygan  908 874 1816 34 50.00% 48.13%
Ellis Twp 162 114 278 48 58.27% 41.01%
Forest Twp 213 257 478 -44 44.56% 53.77%
Grant Twp 259 262 524 -3 49.43% 50.00%
Hebron Twp 72 83 158 -11 45.57% 52.53%
Iverness Twp 644 532 1194 112 53.94% 44.56%
Koehler Twp 295 217 523 78 56.41% 41.49%
Mackinaw Twp 184 157 347 27 53.03% 45.24%
Mentor Twp 260 185 451 75 57.65% 41.02%
Mullett Twp 444 291 747 153 59.44% 38.96%
Munro Twp 198 207 408 -9 48.53% 50.74%
Nunda Twp 252 219 481 33 52.39% 45.53%
Tuscarora Twp 1052 696 1772 356 59.37% 39.28%
Walker Twp 60 58 124 2 48.39% 46.77%
Waverly Twp 116 106 224 10 51.79% 47.32%
Wilmot Twp 203 147 361 56 56.23% 40.72%
Total 7286 5831 13311 1455 54.74% 43.81%







Chippewa County





Bay Mills Twp 251 389 651 -138 38.56% 59.75%
Bruce Twp 629 455 1095 174 57.44% 41.55%
Chippewa Twp 70 47 117 23 59.83% 40.17%
Dafter Twp 361 239 609 122 59.28% 39.24%
Detour Twp 270 217 494 53 54.66% 43.93%
Drummond Twp 439 294 736 145 59.65% 39.95%
Hulbert Twp 56 41 98 15 57.14% 41.84%
Kinross Twp 700 578 1296 122 54.01% 44.60%
Pickford Twp 573 285 867 288 66.09% 32.87%
Raber Twp 176 189 373 -13 47.18% 50.67%
Rudyard Twp 421 241 667 180 63.12% 36.13%
Sault Ste Marie 2504 2652 5221 -148 47.96% 50.79%
Soo Twp 870 656 1544 214 56.35% 42.49%
Sugar Island Twp 189 239 435 -50 43.45% 54.94%
Superior twp 379 325 709 54 53.46% 45.84%
Trout Lake Twp 127 87 217 40 58.53% 40.09%
Whitefish Twp 263 166 435 97 60.46% 38.16%
Total 8278 7100 15564 1178 53.19% 45.62%







Crawford County





Beaver Creek Twp 452 397 854 55 52.93% 46.49%
Frederic Twp 344 285 631 59 54.52% 45.17%
Grayling 339 291 641 48 52.89% 45.40%
Grayling Twp 1690 1298 3028 392 55.81% 42.87%
Lovells Twp 202 160 366 42 55.19% 43.72%
Maple Forest Twp 182 124 308 58 59.09% 40.26%
South Branch Twp 535 439 986 96 54.26% 44.52%
Total 3744 2994 6814 750 54.95% 43.94%







Delta County





Baldwin Twp 224 171 401 53 55.86% 42.64%
Bark River Twp 516 264 788 252 65.48% 33.50%
Bay de Noc Twp 127 110 238 17 53.36% 46.22%
Brampton Twp 294 264 561 30 52.41% 47.06%
Cornell Twp 157 120 280 37 56.07% 42.86%
Ensign Twp 232 221 457 11 50.77% 48.36%
Escanaba 2561 2584 5205 -23 49.20% 49.64%
Escanaba Twp 1081 785 1882 296 57.44% 41.71%
Fairbanks Twp 88 79 167 9 52.69% 47.31%
Ford River Twp 632 481 1119 151 56.48% 42.98%
Garden Twp 240 234 479 6 50.10% 48.85%
Gladstone 1219 1168 2408 51 50.62% 48.50%
Maple Ridge Twp 212 193 410 19 51.71% 47.07%
Masonville Twp 500 399 911 101 54.88% 43.80%
Nahma Twp 131 121 254 10 51.57% 47.64%
Wells Twp 1320 1139 2484 181 53.14% 45.85%
Total 9534 8333 18044 1201 52.84% 46.18%







Dickinson County





Breen Twp 166 67 235 99 70.64% 28.51%
Breitung Twp 2088 1156 3283 932 63.60% 35.21%
Felch Twp 263 109 373 154 70.51% 29.22%
Iron Mountain 1967 1355 3378 612 58.23% 40.11%
Kingsford 1405 918 2350 487 59.79% 39.06%
Norway 666 621 1308 45 50.92% 47.48%
Norway Twp 440 318 767 122 57.37% 41.46%
Sagola Twp 396 214 618 182 64.08% 34.63%
Waucedah Twp 274 174 453 100 60.49% 38.41%
West Branch  Twp 23 20 45 3 51.11% 44.44%
Total 7688 4952 12810 2736 60.02% 38.66%







Emmet County





Bear Creek Twp 1886 1402 3323 484 56.76% 42.19%
Bliss Twp 177 141 326 36 54.29% 43.25%
Carp Lake Twp 221 175 401 46 55.11% 43.64%
Center Twp 143 126 277 17 51.62% 45.49%
Cross Village Twp 95 70 168 25 56.55% 41.67%
Friendship Twp 323 179 510 144 63.33% 35.10%
Harbor Springs 419 333 757 86 55.35% 43.99%
Little Traverse Twp 865 567 1442 298 59.99% 39.32%
Littlefield twp 757 494 1269 263 59.65% 38.93%
Maple River Twp 356 247 608 109 58.55% 40.63%
McKinley Twp 267 193 468 74 57.05% 41.24%
Petoskey 1474 1437 2941 37 50.12% 48.86%
Pleasant View Twp 355 159 514 196 69.07% 30.93%
Readmond Twp 191 160 361 31 52.91% 44.32%
Resort Twp 1019 599 1637 420 62.25% 36.59%
Springvale Twp 724 378 1114 346 64.99% 33.93%
Wawatam Twp 211 167 380 44 55.53% 43.95%
West Traverse Twp 770 398 1175 372 65.53% 33.87%
Total 10253 7225 17671 3028 58.02% 40.89%







Gogebic County





Bessemer 421 547 976 -126 43.14% 56.05%
Bessemer Twp 292 303 603 -11 48.42% 50.25%
Erwin Twp 84 100 186 -16 45.16% 53.76%
Ironwood 960 1390 2376 -430 40.40% 58.50%
Ironwood Twp 636 656 1302 -20 48.85% 50.38%
Marenisco Twp 223 135 362 88 61.60% 37.29%
Wakefield 331 464 806 -133 41.07% 57.57%
Wakefield Twp 68 91 160 -23 42.50% 56.88%
Watersmeet Twp 429 372 805 57 53.29% 46.21%
Total 3444 4058 7576 -614 45.46% 53.56%







Grand Traverse County





Acme Twp 1641 1042 2704 599 60.69% 38.54%
Blair Twp 2072 1412 3550 660 58.37% 39.77%
East Bay Twp 3610 2602 6267 1008 57.60% 41.52%
Fife Lake Twp 461 288 760 173 60.66% 37.89%
Garfield Twp 4849 3806 8761 1043 55.35% 43.44%
Grant Twp 342 225 577 117 59.27% 38.99%
Green Lake Twp 1713 1405 3162 308 54.17% 44.43%
Long Lake Twp 3126 2060 5241 1066 59.65% 39.31%
Mayfield Twp 504 265 778 239 64.78% 34.06%
Paradise Twp 1294 794 2123 500 60.95% 37.40%
Peninsula Twp 2410 1571 4008 839 60.13% 39.20%
Traverse City 3379 4792 8311 -1413 40.66% 57.66%
Union Twp 122 99 221 23 55.20% 44.80%
Whitewater Twp 1011 514 1536 497 65.82% 33.46%
Total 26534 20875 47999 5659 55.28% 43.49%







Houghton County


0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Adams Twp 498 546 1064 -48 46.80% 51.32%
Calumet Twp 1566 1205 2815 361 55.63% 42.81%
Chassell Twp 665 320 998 345 66.63% 32.06%
Duncan Twp 77 51 130 26 59.23% 39.23%
Elm River Twp 92 55 148 37 62.16% 37.16%
Franklin Twp 354 294 662 60 53.47% 44.41%
Hancock 913 971 1913 -58 47.73% 50.76%
Hancock Twp 188 86 276 102 68.12% 31.16%
Houghton  705 1024 1780 -319 39.61% 57.53%
Laird Twp 152 123 280 29 54.29% 43.93%
Osceola Twp 485 362 868 123 55.88% 41.71%
Portage Twp 854 661 1555 193 54.92% 42.51%
Quincy Twp 88 56 145 32 60.69% 38.62%
Schoolcraft Twp 477 371 859 106 55.53% 43.19%
Stanton Twp 459 272 743 187 61.78% 36.61%
Torch Lake Twp 623 404 1046 219 59.56% 38.62%
Total 8196 6801 15282 1395 53.63% 44.50%







Iron County





Bates Twp 331 196 530 135 62.45% 36.98%
Caspian 161 220 385 -59 41.82% 57.14%
Crystal Falls 363 418 796 -55 45.60% 52.51%
Crystal Falls Twp 440 396 849 44 51.83% 46.64%
Gaastra 88 82 173 6 50.87% 47.40%
Hematite Twp 78 80 164 -2 47.56% 48.78%
Iron River 664 560 1234 104 53.81% 45.38%
Iron River Twp 389 200 595 189 65.38% 33.61%
Mansfield Twp 89 59 154 30 57.79% 38.31%
Mastodon Twp 204 191 402 13 50.75% 47.51%
Stambaugh Twp 417 285 706 132 59.07% 40.37%
Total 3224 2687 5988 537 53.84% 44.87%







Kalkaska County





Bear Lake Twp 226 186 418 40 54.07% 44.50%
Blue Lake Twp 176 115 295 61 59.66% 38.98%
Boardman Twp 394 257 656 137 60.06% 39.18%
Clearwater Twp 762 542 1329 220 57.34% 40.78%
Cold Springs Twp 422 300 737 122 57.26% 40.71%
Excelsior Twp 253 192 449 61 56.35% 42.76%
Garfield Twp 250 159 414 91 60.39% 38.41%
Kalkaska Twp 1331 843 2207 488 60.31% 38.20%
Oliver Twp 86 51 137 35 62.77% 37.23%
Orange Twp 362 179 546 183 66.30% 32.78%
Rapid River Twp 294 183 487 111 60.37% 37.58%
Springfield Twp 345 265 624 80 55.29% 42.47%
Total 4901 3272 8299 1629 59.06% 39.43%







Keewenaw County





Allouez Twp 462 335 821 127 56.27% 40.80%
Eagle Harbor Twp 137 106 251 31 54.58% 42.23%
Grant Twp 100 88 189 12 52.91% 46.56%
Houghton Twp 45 28 75 17 60.00% 37.33%
Sherman Twp 30 25 56 5 53.57% 44.64%
Total 774 582 1392 192 55.60% 41.81%







Leelanau County





Bingham Twp 979 639 1631 340 60.02% 39.18%
Centerville Twp 363 360 727 3 49.93% 49.52%
Cleveland Twp 309 378 690 -69 44.78% 54.78%
Elmwood Twp 1624 1288 2930 336 55.43% 43.96%
Empire Twp 381 491 881 -110 43.25% 55.73%
Glen Arbor Twp 391 306 701 85 55.78% 43.65%
Kasson Twp 427 443 877 -16 48.69% 50.51%
Leelanau Twp 746 817 1576 -71 47.34% 51.84%
Leland Twp 780 592 1381 188 56.48% 42.87%
Solon Twp 564 391 966 173 58.39% 40.48%
Suttons Bay Twp 849 815 1678 34 50.60% 48.57%
Traverse City 70 56 126 14 55.56% 44.44%
Total 7483 6576 14164 907 52.83% 46.43%







Luce County





Columbus Twp 67 39 107 28 62.62% 36.45%
Lakefield Twp 455 201 662 254 68.73% 30.36%
McMillan Twp 642 466 1118 176 57.42% 41.68%
Pentland Twp 416 285 709 131 58.67% 40.20%
Total 1580 991 2596 589 60.86% 38.17%







Mackinac County





Bois Blanc Twp 45 50 95 -5 47.37% 52.63%
Brevort Twp 146 143 291 3 50.17% 49.14%
Clark Twp 713 506 1230 207 57.97% 41.14%
Garfield Twp 485 185 673 300 72.07% 27.49%
Hendricks Twp 54 20 74 34 72.97% 27.03%
Hudson Twp 71 47 118 24 60.17% 39.83%
Mackinac Island 216 227 448 -11 48.21% 50.67%
Marquette Twp 195 100 299 95 65.22% 33.44%
Moran Twp 294 289 589 5 49.92% 49.07%
Newton Twp 132 112 245 20 53.88% 45.71%
Portage Twp 354 229 586 125 60.41% 39.08%
St Ignace 513 545 1067 -32 48.08% 51.08%
St Ignace Twp 181 199 384 -18 47.14% 51.82%
Total 3399 2652 6099 747 55.73% 43.48%







Manistee County





Arcada Twp 228 224 454 4 50.22% 49.34%
Bear Lake Twp 486 425 922 61 52.71% 46.10%
Brown Twp 195 194 395 1 49.37% 49.11%
Cleon Twp 225 193 431 32 52.20% 44.78%
Dickson Twp 239 234 483 5 49.48% 48.45%
Filer Twp 619 748 1386 -129 44.66% 53.97%
Manistee 1174 1730 2949 -556 39.81% 58.66%
Manistee Twp 691 902 1616 -211 42.76% 55.82%
Maple Grove Twp 257 290 559 -33 45.97% 51.88%
Marilla Twp 102 81 184 21 55.43% 44.02%
Norman Twp 373 400 799 -27 46.68% 50.06%
Onekama Twp 500 409 916 91 54.59% 44.65%
Pleasanton Twp 257 187 450 70 57.11% 41.56%
Sprindale Twp 192 197 396 -5 48.48% 49.75%
Stronach Twp 199 259 462 -60 43.07% 56.06%
Total 5737 6473 12402 -736 46.26% 52.19%







Marquette





Champion Twp 52 90 146 -38 35.62% 61.64%
Chocolay Twp 1677 1702 3409 -25 49.19% 49.93%
Ely Twp 425 528 966 -103 44.00% 54.66%
Ewing Twp 48 31 84 17 57.14% 36.90%
Forsyth Twp 1284 1451 2785 -167 46.10% 52.10%
Humboldt Twp 128 134 266 -6 48.12% 50.38%
Ishpeming 1059 1767 2870 -708 36.90% 61.57%
Ishpeming Twp 798 1076 1887 -278 42.29% 57.02%
Marquette 3282 5396 8852 -2114 37.08% 60.96%
Marquette Twp 1002 1207 2242 -205 44.69% 53.84%
Michigamme Twp 108 121 231 -13 46.75% 52.38%
Negaunee 825 1255 2105 -430 39.19% 59.62%
Negaunee Twp 724 899 1647 -175 43.96% 54.58%
Powell Twp 227 257 490 -30 46.33% 52.45%
Republic Twp 283 350 639 -67 44.29% 54.77%
Richmond Twp 107 316 436 -209 24.54% 72.48%
Sands Twp 654 621 1287 33 50.82% 48.25%
Skandia Twp 233 194 434 39 53.69% 44.70%
Tilden Twp 215 307 525 -92 40.95% 58.48%
Turin Twp 36 38 75 -2 48.00% 50.67%
Wells Twp 67 62 129 5 51.94% 48.06%
West Branch Twp 372 313 695 59 53.53% 45.04%
Total 13606 18115 32200 -4509 42.25% 56.26%







Mason County





Free Soil Twp 176 234 415 -58 42.41% 56.39%
Grant Twp 214 266 487 -52 43.94% 54.62%
Hamlin Twp 1160 913 2097 247 55.32% 43.54%
Meade Twp 44 35 80 9 55.00% 43.75%
Sheridan twp 230 274 511 -44 45.01% 53.62%
Sherman twp 309 277 600 32 51.50% 46.17%
Victory twp 406 255 665 151 61.05% 38.35%
Total 2539 2254 4855 285 52.30% 46.43%







Menominee County





Cedarville Twp 87 62 150 25 58.00% 41.33%
Daggett Twp 189 124 318 65 59.43% 38.99%
Faithorn Twp 87 53 142 34 61.27% 37.32%
Gourley Twp 135 67 203 68 66.50% 33.00%
Harris Twp 426 370 805 56 52.92% 45.96%
Holmes Twp 103 69 172 34 59.88% 40.12%
Ingallston twp 303 230 536 73 56.53% 42.91%
Lake Twp 183 115 300 68 61.00% 38.33%
Mellen twp 279 229 512 50 54.49% 44.73%
Menominee  1531 1950 3517 -419 43.53% 55.44%
Menominee twp 908 927 1856 -19 48.92% 49.95%
Meyer Twp 248 224 475 24 52.21% 47.16%
Nadeau Twp 300 244 552 56 54.35% 44.20%
Spalding Twp 393 309 710 84 55.35% 43.52%
Stephenson 201 159 367 42 54.77% 43.32%
Stephenson Twp 191 110 304 81 62.83% 36.18%
Total 5564 5242 10919 322 50.96% 48.01%







Montmorency County





Albert Twp 767 506 1291 261 59.41% 39.19%
Avery twp 203 131 338 72 60.06% 38.76%
Briley twp 551 404 970 147 56.80% 41.65%
Hillman Twp 575 402 997 173 57.67% 40.32%
Loud Twp 96 76 174 20 55.17% 43.68%
Montmorency Twp 434 307 749 127 57.94% 40.99%
Rust Twp 151 99 254 52 59.45% 38.98%
Vienna Twp 151 124 278 27 54.32% 44.60%
Total 2928 2049 5051 879 57.97% 40.57%







Ontonagon County





Bergland Twp 171 122 294 49 58.16% 41.50%
Bohemia Twp 28 26 54 2 51.85% 48.15%
Carp Lake Twp 205 190 407 15 50.37% 46.68%
Greenland Twp 194 192 388 2 50.00% 49.48%
Haight Twp 55 46 101 9 54.46% 45.54%
Interior Twp 72 105 177 -33 40.68% 59.32%
Matchwood Twp 36 27 63 9 57.14% 42.86%
McMillin Twp 135 127 267 8 50.56% 47.57%
Ontonagon Twp 719 549 1290 170 55.74% 42.56%
Rockland Twp 64 44 109 20 58.72% 40.37%
Stannard twp 227 158 389 69 58.35% 40.62%
Total 1906 1586 3539 320 53.86% 44.81%







Oscoda County





Big Creek Twp 718 589 1335 129 53.78% 44.12%
Clinton Twp 136 104 247 32 55.06% 42.11%
Comins Twp 598 272 885 326 67.57% 30.73%
Elmer Twp 246 176 427 70 57.61% 41.22%
Greenwood Twp 325 256 592 69 54.90% 43.24%
Mentor Twp 285 260 556 25 51.26% 46.76%
Total 2308 1657 4042 651 57.10% 40.99%







Otsego County





Bagley Twp 1687 1053 2776 634 60.77% 37.93%
Charlton Twp 432 293 735 139 58.78% 39.86%
Chester Twp 361 265 636 96 56.76% 41.67%
Corwith Twp 411 359 787 52 52.22% 45.62%
Dover Twp 194 118 316 76 61.39% 37.34%
Elmira Twp 562 376 951 186 59.10% 39.54%
Gaylord  800 612 1438 188 55.63% 42.56%
Hayes Twp 763 491 1272 272 59.98% 38.60%
Livingston Twp 812 515 1342 297 60.51% 38.38%
Otsego Lake Twp 986 599 1602 387 61.55% 37.39%
Total 7008 4681 11855 2327 59.11% 39.49%







Presque Isle County





Allis Twp 206 257 470 -51 43.83% 54.68%
Bearinger Twp 143 103 250 40 57.20% 41.20%
Belknap Twp 239 133 379 106 63.06% 35.09%
Bismark Twp 123 87 214 36 57.48% 40.65%
Case Twp 204 181 393 23 51.91% 46.06%
Krakow Twp 219 199 423 20 51.77% 47.04%
Metz Twp 68 70 139 -2 48.92% 50.36%
Molke Twp 111 67 179 44 62.01% 37.43%
North Allis Twp 139 116 257 23 54.09% 45.14%
Ocqueoc Twp 191 182 376 9 50.80% 48.40%
Onaway 138 156 299 -18 46.15% 52.17%
Posen Twp 176 209 386 -33 45.60% 54.15%
Presque Isle Twp 644 467 1124 177 57.30% 41.55%
Pulawski Twp 89 95 185 -6 48.11% 51.35%
Rogers City 772 633 1425 139 54.18% 44.42%
Rogers Twp 332 237 578 95 57.44% 41.00%
Total  3794 3192 7077 602 53.61% 45.10%







Schoolcraft County





Doyle Twp 166 169 339 -3 48.97% 49.85%
Germfask Twp 182 46 229 136 79.48% 20.09%
Hiawatha Twp 411 384 803 27 51.18% 47.82%
Inwood Twp 211 190 406 21 51.97% 46.80%
Manistique 545 602 1159 -57 47.02% 51.94%
Manistique Twp 267 218 489 49 54.60% 44.58%
Mueller Twp 75 51 127 24 59.06% 40.16%
Seney Twp 48 19 69 29 69.57% 27.54%
Thompson Twp 237 186 427 51 55.50% 43.56%
Total 2142 1865 4048 277 52.92% 46.07%







Total All 189907 160582 354970 29325 53.50% 45.24%

With the wild swings at times along with the ticketsplitting, this district leans R at the top of the ticket, and is a swing district downticket. 






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