Saturday, July 30, 2011

State Senate Redistricting - District 22 (SD-22)

State Senate - District 22
Current Rep – Joe Hune (R-Hamburg Twp)

2010 Results - Old District (22st)
Joe Hune - 65,170
Chuck Fellows - 29,325

This district had to contract in size due to Livingston County's population growth. It dropped Shiawasse County to the 24th District and its portion of Ingham County to the 23rd district. It adds Western Washtenaw County instead. It drops swing areas that supported Joe heavily and picks up another swing area overall, although it's much different than Shiawassee County.

I thought this district was going to be worse with the redistricting than it was. I commented that Joe took one for the team based on my eye test instead of running the number. I think he did because of his personal strength in Shiawassee County, but even if he craters in Washtenaw County (which I don't expect), there shouldn't be a general election problem. Even McCain (who ANNOUNCED he quit Michigan) won the district, and Joe gets a lot more than 56% against a democrat in Livingston County. Joe actually gets a LOT of independent votes in the county as well because he works hard, hits their doors, and does what he says he's going to do. He didn't vote for that pension tax.

This is still a safe GOP district. Any district with all of Livingston County is safe unless you have high population democrat strongholds also in the district (Like Mike Rogers having Lansing and East Lansing). Ann Arbor and Ypsi are in a different state senate district, and Scio Township alone won't counter the entire county. Despite it being safe, Joe won't take this district for granted - primary or general. He won his first race by two votes, so he'll take everything seriously. Paul Rogers (who ran an actual race against Joe) found out how strong Joe is as a candidate. I think whoever talked Paul Rogers into running owes him an apology. I expect that result will stop any potential non-quixotic primary challengers in 2014. There's one I think might try, who I won't name, but I think he'll get a very rude awakening if he goes for it. He's a strong candidate, but Joe's stronger.

Farm club favors the GOP. Former state rep Pam Byrnes is strong in Chelsea and Scio, but doesn't have the best two areas of her old state rep district in this district. Her support for high taxes, abortion, and gun control won't sell in Livingston County at all either. Bill Rogers and Cindy Denby are termed out of their state rep races in 2014. Mark Ouimet is termed out of his state rep race in 2016. I expect them to be potential challengers for this district in 2018. There's no shortage of county commissioners or township supervisors either who can run. Barring an absolute disaster, this one's not going dem.



McCain Obama Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Livingston County 55592 42349 97941 13243 56.76% 43.24% 13.52%
Washtenaw County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Bridgwater Twp 526 481 1007 45 52.23% 47.77% 4.47%
Chelsea 1214 1748 2962 -534 40.99% 59.01% -18.03%
Dexter Twp 1730 2064 3794 -334 45.60% 54.40% -8.80%
Freedom Twp 481 428 909 53 52.92% 47.08% 5.83%
Lima Twp 973 973 1946 0 50.00% 50.00% 0.00%
Lodi Twp 1894 1803 3697 91 51.23% 48.77% 2.46%
Lyndon Twp 735 843 1578 -108 46.58% 53.42% -6.84%
Manchester Twp 1241 1424 2665 -183 46.57% 53.43% -6.87%
Northfield Twp 2109 2310 4419 -201 47.73% 52.27% -4.55%
Saline Twp 539 507 1046 32 51.53% 48.47% 3.06%
Scio Twp 3772 7709 11481 -3937 32.85% 67.15% -34.29%
Sharon Twp 556 503 1059 53 52.50% 47.50% 5.00%
Sylvan Twp 919 996 1915 -77 47.99% 52.01% -4.02%
Webster Twp 1911 2186 4097 -275 46.64% 53.36% -6.71%
Total 74192 66324 140516 7868 52.80% 47.20% 5.60%









Bush Kerry Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Livingston County 58860 33991 92851 24869 63.39% 36.61% 26.78%
Washtenaw County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Bridgwater Twp 550 352 902 198 60.98% 39.02% 21.95%
Chelsea 1300 1490 2790 -190 46.59% 53.41% -6.81%
Dexter Twp 1909 1672 3581 237 53.31% 46.69% 6.62%
Freedom Twp 481 405 886 76 54.29% 45.71% 8.58%
Lima Twp 926 709 1635 217 56.64% 43.36% 13.27%
Lodi Twp 2104 1519 3623 585 58.07% 41.93% 16.15%
Lyndon Twp 812 718 1530 94 53.07% 46.93% 6.14%
Manchester Twp 1299 1168 2467 131 52.66% 47.34% 5.31%
Northfield Twp 2352 2027 4379 325 53.71% 46.29% 7.42%
Saline Twp 612 464 1076 148 56.88% 43.12% 13.75%
Scio Twp 4244 6262 10506 -2018 40.40% 59.60% -19.21%
Sharon Twp 630 440 1070 190 58.88% 41.12% 17.76%
Sylvan Twp 983 819 1802 164 54.55% 45.45% 9.10%
Webster Twp 2097 1707 3804 390 55.13% 44.87% 10.25%
Total 79159 53743 132902 25416 59.56% 40.44% 19.12%








Last St Senate GOP Dem Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Livingston County 47189 17976 65165 29213 72.41% 27.59% 44.83%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 47189 17976 65165 29213 72.41% 27.59% 44.83%

No comments: