Current Rep – Joe Hune (R-Hamburg Twp)
2010 Results - Old District (22st)
Joe Hune - 65,170
Chuck Fellows - 29,325
This district had to contract in size due to Livingston County's population growth. It dropped Shiawasse County to the 24th District and its portion of Ingham County to the 23rd district. It adds Western Washtenaw County instead. It drops swing areas that supported Joe heavily and picks up another swing area overall, although it's much different than Shiawassee County.
I thought this district was going to be worse with the redistricting than it was. I commented that Joe took one for the team based on my eye test instead of running the number. I think he did because of his personal strength in Shiawassee County, but even if he craters in Washtenaw County (which I don't expect), there shouldn't be a general election problem. Even McCain (who ANNOUNCED he quit Michigan) won the district, and Joe gets a lot more than 56% against a democrat in Livingston County. Joe actually gets a LOT of independent votes in the county as well because he works hard, hits their doors, and does what he says he's going to do. He didn't vote for that pension tax.
This is still a safe GOP district. Any district with all of Livingston County is safe unless you have high population democrat strongholds also in the district (Like Mike Rogers having Lansing and East Lansing). Ann Arbor and Ypsi are in a different state senate district, and Scio Township alone won't counter the entire county. Despite it being safe, Joe won't take this district for granted - primary or general. He won his first race by two votes, so he'll take everything seriously. Paul Rogers (who ran an actual race against Joe) found out how strong Joe is as a candidate. I think whoever talked Paul Rogers into running owes him an apology. I expect that result will stop any potential non-quixotic primary challengers in 2014. There's one I think might try, who I won't name, but I think he'll get a very rude awakening if he goes for it. He's a strong candidate, but Joe's stronger.
Farm club favors the GOP. Former state rep Pam Byrnes is strong in Chelsea and Scio, but doesn't have the best two areas of her old state rep district in this district. Her support for high taxes, abortion, and gun control won't sell in Livingston County at all either. Bill Rogers and Cindy Denby are termed out of their state rep races in 2014. Mark Ouimet is termed out of his state rep race in 2016. I expect them to be potential challengers for this district in 2018. There's no shortage of county commissioners or township supervisors either who can run. Barring an absolute disaster, this one's not going dem.
|Last St Senate||GOP||Dem||Total||Diff||GOP||DEM||Diff|