State Senate Redistricting - District 22 (SD-22)

State Senate - District 22
Current Rep – Joe Hune (R-Hamburg Twp)

2010 Results - Old District (22st)
Joe Hune - 65,170
Chuck Fellows - 29,325

This district had to contract in size due to Livingston County's population growth. It dropped Shiawasse County to the 24th District and its portion of Ingham County to the 23rd district. It adds Western Washtenaw County instead. It drops swing areas that supported Joe heavily and picks up another swing area overall, although it's much different than Shiawassee County.

I thought this district was going to be worse with the redistricting than it was. I commented that Joe took one for the team based on my eye test instead of running the number. I think he did because of his personal strength in Shiawassee County, but even if he craters in Washtenaw County (which I don't expect), there shouldn't be a general election problem. Even McCain (who ANNOUNCED he quit Michigan) won the district, and Joe gets a lot more than 56% against a democrat in Livingston County. Joe actually gets a LOT of independent votes in the county as well because he works hard, hits their doors, and does what he says he's going to do. He didn't vote for that pension tax.

This is still a safe GOP district. Any district with all of Livingston County is safe unless you have high population democrat strongholds also in the district (Like Mike Rogers having Lansing and East Lansing). Ann Arbor and Ypsi are in a different state senate district, and Scio Township alone won't counter the entire county. Despite it being safe, Joe won't take this district for granted - primary or general. He won his first race by two votes, so he'll take everything seriously. Paul Rogers (who ran an actual race against Joe) found out how strong Joe is as a candidate. I think whoever talked Paul Rogers into running owes him an apology. I expect that result will stop any potential non-quixotic primary challengers in 2014. There's one I think might try, who I won't name, but I think he'll get a very rude awakening if he goes for it. He's a strong candidate, but Joe's stronger.

Farm club favors the GOP. Former state rep Pam Byrnes is strong in Chelsea and Scio, but doesn't have the best two areas of her old state rep district in this district. Her support for high taxes, abortion, and gun control won't sell in Livingston County at all either. Bill Rogers and Cindy Denby are termed out of their state rep races in 2014. Mark Ouimet is termed out of his state rep race in 2016. I expect them to be potential challengers for this district in 2018. There's no shortage of county commissioners or township supervisors either who can run. Barring an absolute disaster, this one's not going dem.

	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Livingston County	55592	42349	97941	13243	56.76%	43.24%	13.52%
Washtenaw County			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Bridgwater Twp	526	481	1007	45	52.23%	47.77%	4.47%
Chelsea	1214	1748	2962	-534	40.99%	59.01%	-18.03%
Dexter Twp	1730	2064	3794	-334	45.60%	54.40%	-8.80%
Freedom Twp	481	428	909	53	52.92%	47.08%	5.83%
Lima Twp	973	973	1946	0	50.00%	50.00%	0.00%
Lodi Twp	1894	1803	3697	91	51.23%	48.77%	2.46%
Lyndon Twp	735	843	1578	-108	46.58%	53.42%	-6.84%
Manchester Twp	1241	1424	2665	-183	46.57%	53.43%	-6.87%
Northfield Twp	2109	2310	4419	-201	47.73%	52.27%	-4.55%
Saline Twp	539	507	1046	32	51.53%	48.47%	3.06%
Scio Twp	3772	7709	11481	-3937	32.85%	67.15%	-34.29%
Sharon Twp	556	503	1059	53	52.50%	47.50%	5.00%
Sylvan Twp	919	996	1915	-77	47.99%	52.01%	-4.02%
Webster Twp	1911	2186	4097	-275	46.64%	53.36%	-6.71%
Total	74192	66324	140516	7868	52.80%	47.20%	5.60%
	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Livingston County	58860	33991	92851	24869	63.39%	36.61%	26.78%
Washtenaw County			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Bridgwater Twp	550	352	902	198	60.98%	39.02%	21.95%
Chelsea	1300	1490	2790	-190	46.59%	53.41%	-6.81%
Dexter Twp	1909	1672	3581	237	53.31%	46.69%	6.62%
Freedom Twp	481	405	886	76	54.29%	45.71%	8.58%
Lima Twp	926	709	1635	217	56.64%	43.36%	13.27%
Lodi Twp	2104	1519	3623	585	58.07%	41.93%	16.15%
Lyndon Twp	812	718	1530	94	53.07%	46.93%	6.14%
Manchester Twp	1299	1168	2467	131	52.66%	47.34%	5.31%
Northfield Twp	2352	2027	4379	325	53.71%	46.29%	7.42%
Saline Twp	612	464	1076	148	56.88%	43.12%	13.75%
Scio Twp	4244	6262	10506	-2018	40.40%	59.60%	-19.21%
Sharon Twp	630	440	1070	190	58.88%	41.12%	17.76%
Sylvan Twp	983	819	1802	164	54.55%	45.45%	9.10%
Webster Twp	2097	1707	3804	390	55.13%	44.87%	10.25%
Total	79159	53743	132902	25416	59.56%	40.44%	19.12%
Last St Senate	GOP	Dem	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Livingston County	47189	17976	65165	29213	72.41%	27.59%	44.83%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	47189	17976	65165	29213	72.41%	27.59%	44.83%