Saturday, October 29, 2011

State Senate Redistricting - District 36 (SD-36)

State Senate - District 36
Current Rep – John Moolenaar (R-Midland)


2010 Results - Old District (36th)
John Moolenaar - 56,634
Andy Neumann - 32,154


Don't let the numbers from 2010 fool anybody. The democrats got crushed among independents up north in 2010. In 2006, the GOP was hit hard in rural areas. This district is a swing district, and got tougher with redistricting. This is another district where Obama's numbers are not worst case scenario. Stupak's numbers are the worst case scenario, and he's always won this area BIG. Even though Obama did better and won in the new 35th district, the 36th district is more democrat downticket for state senate purposes. Andy Neumann in 2002 lost by about 2100 votes to Tony Stamas. It was down to the wire. That's the old district. This one I think is tougher with the loss of Crawford County. We lose Ogemaw which helps by leanings and more so Joel Sheltrown being in the other district, but picking up Arenac and Presque Isle Counties are not helpful to the GOP's defense.

The old district was Alcona, Alpena, Crawford (now in 35th), Gladwin, Iosco, Midland, Montmorency, Ogemaw (now in 35th), Oscoda, and Otsego counties. It drops GOP leaning Crawford and somewhat dem leaning Ogemaw counties and added somewhat democrat (downticket) leaning Presque Isle County and more solidly democrat leaning Arenac county. This defense will not be easy. The old district was won by GOP'er Tony Stamas by 2100 votes in 2002. Alpena and Arenac counties are usually solidly democrat. Presque Isle, Gladwin, Iosco, and sometimes Alcona are competitive. Midland and Montorency lean republican. Otsego and Oscoda are solidly republican.

I'm interested to see who runs for this spot. Former State Rep Matt Gillard could be a tough challenge. I think Neumann alienated some people by running to replace Gillard for one term, which is all he had left as he left his state rep spot for the 2002 run. I don't expect an easy challenge here in 2014 at all.



McCain Obama Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Alcona 3404 2896 6300 508 54.03% 45.97% 8.06%
Alpena 7125 7705 14830 -580 48.04% 51.96% -3.91%
Arenac 3807 4155 7962 -348 47.81% 52.19% -4.37%
Gladwin 6391 6590 12981 -199 49.23% 50.77% -1.53%
Iosco 6593 7309 13902 -716 47.42% 52.58% -5.15%
Midland 22263 20701 42964 1562 51.82% 48.18% 3.64%
Montmorency 2841 2403 5244 438 54.18% 45.82% 8.35%
Oscoda 2320 1887 4207 433 55.15% 44.85% 10.29%
Otsego 6752 5634 12386 1118 54.51% 45.49% 9.03%
Presque Isle 3606 3722 7328 -116 49.21% 50.79% -1.58%



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Total 65102 63002 128104 2100 50.82% 49.18% 1.64%









Bush  Kerry Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Alcona 3592 2871 6463 721 55.58% 44.42% 11.16%
Alpena 7665 7407 15072 258 50.86% 49.14% 1.71%
Arenac 4071 4076 8147 -5 49.97% 50.03% -0.06%
Gladwin 6770 6343 13113 427 51.63% 48.37% 3.26%
Iosco 7301 6557 13858 744 52.68% 47.32% 5.37%
Midland 24369 18355 42724 6014 57.04% 42.96% 14.08%
Montmorency 3300 2196 5496 1104 60.04% 39.96% 20.09%
Oscoda 2570 1792 4362 778 58.92% 41.08% 17.84%
Otsego 7470 4674 12144 2796 61.51% 38.49% 23.02%
Presque Isle 3982 3432 7414 550 53.71% 46.29% 7.42%



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Total 71090 57703 128793 13387 55.20% 44.80% 10.39%








Last St Sen race GOP DEM Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Alcona 2767 1744 4511 1023 61.34% 38.66% 22.68%
Alpena 5259 4750 10009 509 52.54% 47.46% 5.09%
Arenac

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Gladwin 5455 3326 8781 2129 62.12% 37.88% 24.25%
Iosco 5641 3847 9488 1794 59.45% 40.55% 18.91%
Midland 20245 8301 28546 11944 70.92% 29.08% 41.84%
Montmorency 2356 1457 3813 899 61.79% 38.21% 23.58%
Oscoda 1894 1140 3034 754 62.43% 37.57% 24.85%
Otsego 5659 2854 8513 2805 66.47% 33.53% 32.95%
Presque Isle

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Total 49276 27419 76695 21857 64.25% 35.75% 28.50%

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