Sunday, November 13, 2011

State House Redistricting - District 32 (HD-32)

State House - District 32
Current Rep - Quasi Open, Andrea LaFontaine represented much of the district.

2010 Results - Old District (32nd)
Andrea LaFontaine - 16,101
Jennifer Haase - 14,354

Declared Candidates:
Rep - Andrea LaFontaine (R-Richmond)
Dem - Sheri Smith (D-Columbus)

Old District (33rd)
Ken Golke - 24,469
Andrew Prasiloski - 12,339

Old District (81st)
Jud Gilbert - 19,882
Carol Morrissette - 8,590

Update 8-30-2012 - LaFontaine took a lot of nasty shots in the primary from Shmina, who claimed among other things that she supported the pension tax. She did not so. Smina got his ass kicked in the primary, and I suspect his tone and attacks had a lot to do with it.

Redistricting wasn't kind to either Ken Golke (Ray Twp) or Andrea LaFontaine (Richmond). They were both placed in the same district (33rd). That makes this an open, or at least quasi-open district in a tough spot. LaFontaine's closer to the new district and represents much of the new district, but also represents in land area most of what is now the 33rd.

The old 32nd District covered Armada, Chesterfield, Lenox, and Richmond Townships. It also covered the cities of Memphis, Richmond, and New Baltimore. In St Clair County, it covered Columbus, Ira, Kimball, and Wales Twps.

The old 33rd District covered part of Clinton Township, Macomb Township, and Ray Township. Goike won them all big, but that seat is safely republican for almost any rep.

The old 81st district covered most of St Clair County outside of Port Huron and the portion covered in the 32nd district.

The new 32nd District covers New Baltimore and Chesterfield Twp in Macomb County. In St Clair County, it also covers Ira, Casco, Columbus, Kimball, Wales, Riley, Kenockee Townships, along with part of the City of Memphis.

It drops most of the Macomb County portion outside of New Baltimore and Chesterfield Twp to the 33rd. It picks up a couple of townships from Gilbert's district. The new district voted slightly for Obama. I hope that doesn't bite us later with the redistricters seemingly trying to avoid a rematch with Haase.

As I often said, nothing comes easy in Macomb County (same applies in St Clair County to a lesser extent). This is the epidomy of that. The dems took this seat in somewhat of an upset when it opened up in 2008. LaFontaine then defeated the incumbent Haase in the 2010 wave election. Those changes happened despite John McCain defeating Obama in the district. That's why even though on paper this district is slightly Republican leaning, I'm still calling it a swing district. LaFontaine showed her strength defeating an incumbent. Hasse showed strength in taking the open seat two years earlier. As such, I'm going to post the 2008 numbers as well as 2010 numbers of the new district (Hasse's win in 08 and LaFontaine's win in 2010).

I think our chances here will be determined by what the matchups will be among the candidates. Taking Richmond and Armada Twps out of this district makes me nervous.



McCain Obama Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Macomb County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Chesterfield Twp 10019 11050 21069 -1031 47.55% 52.45% -4.89%
New Baltimore 3003 2971 5974 32 50.27% 49.73% 0.54%
St Clair County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Casco Twp 1134 834 1968 300 57.62% 42.38% 15.24%
Columbus Twp 1227 865 2092 362 58.65% 41.35% 17.30%
Ira Twp 1310 1178 2488 132 52.65% 47.35% 5.31%
Kenockee Twp 615 597 1212 18 50.74% 49.26% 1.49%
Kimball Twp 1767 2198 3965 -431 44.56% 55.44% -10.87%
Memphis 93 77 170 16 54.71% 45.29% 9.41%
Riley Twp 975 696 1671 279 58.35% 41.65% 16.70%
Wales Twp 842 788 1630 54 51.66% 48.34% 3.31%
Total 20985 21254 42239 -269 49.68% 50.32% -0.64%









Bush  Kerry Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Macomb County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Chesterfield Twp 10533 8853 19386 1680 54.33% 45.67% 8.67%
New Baltimore 3103 2440 5543 663 55.98% 44.02% 11.96%
St Clair County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Casco Twp 1209 826 2035 383 59.41% 40.59% 18.82%
Columbus Twp 1344 827 2171 517 61.91% 38.09% 23.81%
Ira Twp 1483 1176 2659 307 55.77% 44.23% 11.55%
Kenockee Twp 669 499 1168 170 57.28% 42.72% 14.55%
Kimball Twp 1960 1938 3898 22 50.28% 49.72% 0.56%
Memphis 104 64 168 40 61.90% 38.10% 23.81%
Riley Twp 1008 610 1618 398 62.30% 37.70% 24.60%
Wales Twp 894 647 1541 247 58.01% 41.99% 16.03%
Total 22307 17880 40187 4427 55.51% 44.49% 11.02%








Last St House GOP DEM Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Macomb County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Chesterfield Twp 6435 6172 12607 263 51.04% 48.96% 2.09%
New Baltimore 1847 1850 3697 -3 49.96% 50.04% -0.08%
St Clair County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Casco Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Columbus Twp 895 473 1368 422 65.42% 34.58% 30.85%
Ira Twp 868 593 1461 275 59.41% 40.59% 18.82%
Kenockee Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Kimball Twp 1176 1257 2433 -81 48.34% 51.66% -3.33%
Memphis

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Riley Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Wales Twp 614 444 1058 170 58.03% 41.97% 16.07%
Total 11835 10789 22624 1046 52.31% 47.69% 4.62%








2008 St House GOP DEM Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Macomb County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Chesterfield Twp 9143 10481 19624 -1338 46.59% 53.41% -6.82%
New Baltimore 2732 2954 5686 -222 48.05% 51.95% -3.90%
St Clair County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Casco Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Columbus Twp 1155 857 2012 298 57.41% 42.59% 14.81%
Ira Twp 1213 1156 2369 57 51.20% 48.80% 2.41%
Kenockee Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Kimball Twp 1772 2008 3780 -236 46.88% 53.12% -6.24%
Memphis

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Riley Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Wales Twp 811 747 1558 64 52.05% 47.95% 4.11%
Total 16826 18203 35029 -1377 48.03% 51.97% -3.93%

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