Friday, November 11, 2011

State House Redistricting - District 17 (HD-17)

State House - District 17
Current Rep – Open

Declared Candidates:
GOP - Anne Rossio (R-Carleton) 
Dem - Bill LaVoy (D-Monroe)

Update 8-30-2012 - Bill LaVoy won the primary. The primary was close, so I wouldn't be adverse to taking a shot at this district if Rossio has a good campaign organization going.

Update - 5-25-2012 - A three way primary makes this interesting. If this goes negative in a big way and our state party has the extra resources, I might suggest taking a shot at this if the 2010 influences hold up some.

2010 Results - Old District (56th)
Dale Zorn - 15,582
Kate Ebli - 13,945

Old District 23rd
Pat Sommerville - 15,927
Deb Kennedy - 13,877

This district is an open district that leans democrat, but it meant to protect two other districts. Zorn's in Ida, but his new district is more similar to the old Matt Milosch/Kathy Angerer 55th with no Pittsfield Township. Sommerville's district drops his 2nd worst area and an area he barely won.

This is a brand new district. I really can't compare an old or new one. It covers these areas:
Wayne County - Sumpter Township, Flat Rock, and Rockwood
Monroe County - London, Exeter, Frenchtown, Ash, Berlin Twps. City of Monroe.

This is one of those districts that isn't impossible to win considering the major 2010 swing in Monroe County, but nothing with Sumpter Township, Frenchtown Township, and the City of Monroe comes easy. It would take a top level candidate and a little bit of luck to take this one. If it's a big year, go for it. Sumpter's a big problem however. I never understood why that was such a strong dem area compared to neighboring Huron Twp.



McCain Obama Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Flat Rock 1807 2504 4311 -697 41.92% 58.08% -16.17%
Rockrood 678 800 1478 -122 45.87% 54.13% -8.25%
Sumpter Twp 1696 2961 4657 -1265 36.42% 63.58% -27.16%
Monroe County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Ash Twp 1921 1941 3862 -20 49.74% 50.26% -0.52%
Berlin Twp 2231 2390 4621 -159 48.28% 51.72% -3.44%
Exeter Twp 1036 1013 2049 23 50.56% 49.44% 1.12%
Frenchtown Twp 4145 5036 9181 -891 45.15% 54.85% -9.70%
London twp 648 874 1522 -226 42.58% 57.42% -14.85%
Monroe 3971 5532 9503 -1561 41.79% 58.21% -16.43%
Total 18133 23051 41184 -4918 44.03% 55.97% -11.94%









Bush Kerry Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Flat Rock 1917 2233 4150 -316 46.19% 53.81% -7.61%
Rockrood 759 948 1707 -189 44.46% 55.54% -11.07%
Sumpter Twp 1979 2963 4942 -984 40.04% 59.96% -19.91%
Monroe County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Ash Twp 1798 1742 3540 56 50.79% 49.21% 1.58%
Berlin Twp 2100 2092 4192 8 50.10% 49.90% 0.19%
Exeter Twp 1010 928 1938 82 52.12% 47.88% 4.23%
Frenchtown Twp 4315 4968 9283 -653 46.48% 53.52% -7.03%
London twp 646 805 1451 -159 44.52% 55.48% -10.96%
Monroe 4462 5146 9608 -684 46.44% 53.56% -7.12%
Total 18986 21825 40811 -2839 46.52% 53.48% -6.96%

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