Brian Ellis is challenging Justin Amash in the primary. Ellis is running as an establishment social conservative attacking Amash on his abortion and 2nd Amendment votes. Bob Goodrich is a dem sacrificial lamb candidate. The primary could be quite interesting. Amash has a major following, but a lot of detractors as well.
MI-03 Update - 2013
The 2011 Update is here.
Incumbent – Justin Amash (R-Cascade Twp)
Years in office as of 2014 election - 4.
Challengers – Brian Ellis (R-Grand Rapids), Bob Goodrich (D-Kentwood)
Challengers – Brian Ellis (R-Grand Rapids), Bob Goodrich (D-Kentwood)
2012:
Justin Amash – 171675 – 52.62%
Steve Pestka – 144108 – 44.17%
27567 vote difference
Romney – 177789 votes – 53.12%
Obama – 153081 votes – 45.74%
29325 vote difference.
2008:
McCain – 170694 votes – 48.60%
Obama – 174464 votes – 49.67%
-3770 vote difference
2004:
Bush – 193901 votes – 57.04%
Kerry – 141555 votes – 41.64%
38808 vote difference
Some pundits that don’t know Michigan
always claim that Grand Rapids
is the capital of “Republican West Michigan.” That’s not true (Ottawa County
is). That hasn’t been true in a long time, if it was even true to begin with. The
big Kent County strength of the GOP is in the
suburbs. 2/3 of the vote in this district is in Kent County.
Redistricting took two of the marginal suburbs out and into the MI-02. However,
tougher Calhoun county was added instead. Barry and Ionia Counties
are solidly GOP and added. Montcalm
County’s Eureka Twp was
also added.
A lot of work needs to be done here. In order for Michigan to be competitive statewide again, we need to at
least get this back to the Bush numbers in Calhoun, Ionia, and Barry Counties,
and better than that in Kent
County.
For the map, I’ll use the same color code.
70%+Dem – Black
60%-69.99% - Blue
55%-59.99% - Slate Blue
50%-54.99% - Light Sky Blue
Less than 50% - Gold
R wins:
70%+Rep – Firebrick
60-69.99% - Red
55-59.99% - Orange Red
50-54.99% - Salmon
Less than 50% - Yellow
Tie – White
Top of the ticket R’s have taken a beating here compared to
the old days. Kent
County used to be a 60%+
county for years. Bush was held under 60% twice, winning by about 54,000
(countywide) both times. McCain lost Kent
County completely along
with the district. That was a disaster. He quit. Michigan hates quitters. Aberration. Romney
was held to 53 and won by 17000 in Kent
County. Bush had 58% and
won by over twice that. Districtwide, Bush won with 57% and had twice what
Romney had in the vote spread.
Kent
County is 2/3 of the
district. Romney recovered some from
McCain’s cratering here, but he did get less votes than him in Lowell. He also only got
400 more votes than him in Grand
Rapids. Obama lost ground there, but here’s a
comparison. Romney 28772 (35.73%), McCain 28372 (33.00%), Bush 36115 (43.61%).
Bush ran about 7000 votes higher in outer Kent County
(within the district) than Romney. There’s your main difference in the
district. The only reliable democrat
area in the county is the City of Grand Rapids
(and arguably now Kentwood
in MI-02).
To the east is Ionia
County which is between Lansing and Grand
Rapids along I-96. It’s most known for the prison. It’s
a base R county, although Bush did significantly better here than Romney and
especially McCain. McCain was held to a 1500 vote spread. Romney 3300. Bush
6000. North Plains
Township is the only area that went D
the last three presidential elections, although Obama took Belding and Ionia twice (Bush won it). I’m not sure what’s
significant about that area to make it so dem. Bush made it close and lost it
by 25 votes. Romney lost it by 89 and McCain 128. Alamingly, Romney had only 150
more raw votes than McCain in the county even though he got 55.57% here to
McCain’s 51.64%. Bush got over 60%. Romney had less votes in Belding, Boston
Twp, Ionia, Ionia Twp (still flipped it from
08), Odessa Twp, and Orange Twp than McCain despite his percentages being
better than McCain in all of them. Portland on the east is closer to Lansing
than Grand Rapids,
so this area is influenced by two other areas.
Southwest of Ionia County is Barry
County. It’s the county
that is the crossroads of several cities in Michigan. Lansing to Kalamazoo/Battle Creek. Grand Rapids to Jackson.
It’s usually a base R county. Bush got 59.51% here. McCain cratered here like
most of West Michigan getting 53.75%, but
Romney in percentage recovered most of it getting 58.41% here. However, Romney
still only got 230 more votes than McCain. Obama just lost 2000 votes. McCain
had more raw votes in Assyria twp, Castleton
Twp, Hastings, Johnstown Twp, Maple Grove Twp, Orangeville Twp, Prairieville
Twp, and Yankee Springs Twp. Hastings is quite alarming as Bush won it with 55.72%
and Obama won it twice. This is a key county where we need to do well in order
to win statewide.
To the South is Calhoun
County, a quintessential
swing county along the I-94 corridor. It voted for Gore narrowly, Bush narrowly,
and Obama twice, narrowly the 2nd time. It voted for dem Mark
Schauer several times, but followed up with Mike Nofs, a moderate republican
(Social conservative, pro-union) several times. It voted for Granholm and Mike
Cox (over Gary Peters) in the same election back in 2002. To say that this is a
key county is an understatement. Bush won the county by 2200 votes (51.21%) in
2004. 32093 votes to Kerry’s 29891. In 2004, McCain got 28553 and lost the
county by 6000 votes. Obama had less votes than John Kerry the 2nd time,
but Romney had less votes than McCain. Obama won the 2nd time by 934
votes (50.18%). Romney only had 28333 votes. That is not a recipe for victory –
even as he ran 4% ahead of McCain.
There’s two major democrat areas in Calhoun County.
Battle Creek and vicinity is the most well known
(and Springfield/Bedford Twp might as well be Battle Creek). Battle
Creek is democrat but not to the extent of many other core Michigan cities. Kerry
only had 52.66% here. Nofs has won it in the past. Obama got 60.20% and later 57.72%,
which is fairly high for the city. Bush got 46.60%, Romney 41.29%. Springfield is more dem than Battle Creek which is somewhat surprisingly
since its whiter. Bush came within 3 votes of winning Bedford Twp. The big
problem from a per capita standpoint is Albion.
Albion is forgotten and much smaller, but the dems in 2004 had a bigger vote
spread there (-1278) than Battle Creek
(-1269). Kerry got 70.11% there, and Obama 77.39% and 75.80%. Blacks, unions,
and Albion college. Marshall is competitive and leans slightly R.
Most of the rural areas here are solidly R. They help counter Albion/Battle
creek and make this a competitive county.
Overall this district leans R. Amash ran similar to Romney,
so he probably has this district unless someone strong primaries him. That is
unless we get another wave year like 2008. The key in this district is to drive
up the vote in the Kent County suburbs, get Bush numbers in Calhoun, Ionia,
and Barry Counties,
and to stop the bleeding in Grand
Rapids.
| District 3 | ||||||
| Romney | Obama | Total | Diff | GOP | DEM | |
| Barry County: | ||||||
| Assyria Twp | 608 | 344 | 967 | 264 | 62.87% | 35.57% |
| Baltimore Twp | 512 | 355 | 879 | 157 | 58.25% | 40.39% |
| Barry Twp | 970 | 707 | 1708 | 263 | 56.79% | 41.39% |
| Carlton Twp | 734 | 469 | 1216 | 265 | 60.36% | 38.57% |
| Castleton Twp | 684 | 591 | 1289 | 93 | 53.06% | 45.85% |
| Hastings | 1453 | 1520 | 3020 | -67 | 48.11% | 50.33% |
| Hastings Twp | 783 | 584 | 1383 | 199 | 56.62% | 42.23% |
| Hope Twp | 841 | 673 | 1540 | 168 | 54.61% | 43.70% |
| Irving Twp | 1049 | 496 | 1562 | 553 | 67.16% | 31.75% |
| Johnstown Twp | 844 | 625 | 1482 | 219 | 56.95% | 42.17% |
| Maple Grove Twp | 411 | 249 | 669 | 162 | 61.43% | 37.22% |
| Orangeville Twp | 806 | 691 | 1532 | 115 | 52.61% | 45.10% |
| Prairieville Twp | 922 | 826 | 1769 | 96 | 52.12% | 46.69% |
| Rutland Twp | 1207 | 841 | 2068 | 366 | 58.37% | 40.67% |
| Thornapple Twp | 2662 | 1233 | 3938 | 1429 | 67.60% | 31.31% |
| Woodland Twp | 649 | 419 | 1078 | 230 | 60.20% | 38.87% |
| Yankee Springs Twp | 1520 | 871 | 2412 | 649 | 63.02% | 36.11% |
| Total | 16655 | 11494 | 28512 | 5161 | 58.41% | 40.31% |
| Calhoun County | ||||||
| Albion | 684 | 2233 | 2946 | -1549 | 23.22% | 75.80% |
| Albion Twp | 293 | 245 | 548 | 48 | 53.47% | 44.71% |
| Athens twp | 681 | 448 | 1147 | 233 | 59.37% | 39.06% |
| Battle Creek | 8574 | 11984 | 20764 | -3410 | 41.29% | 57.72% |
| Bedford Twp | 2093 | 2201 | 4361 | -108 | 47.99% | 50.47% |
| Burlington Twp | 515 | 348 | 880 | 167 | 58.52% | 39.55% |
| Clarence Twp | 601 | 368 | 985 | 233 | 61.02% | 37.36% |
| Clarendon Twp | 309 | 179 | 500 | 130 | 61.80% | 35.80% |
| Convis Twp | 437 | 286 | 731 | 151 | 59.78% | 39.12% |
| Eckord Twp | 492 | 234 | 734 | 258 | 67.03% | 31.88% |
| Emmett Twp | 2818 | 2330 | 5218 | 488 | 54.01% | 44.65% |
| Fredonia Twp | 504 | 312 | 835 | 192 | 60.36% | 37.37% |
| Homer Twp | 591 | 436 | 1041 | 155 | 56.77% | 41.88% |
| Lee Twp | 330 | 181 | 519 | 149 | 63.58% | 34.87% |
| Leroy Twp | 1354 | 774 | 2152 | 580 | 62.92% | 35.97% |
| Marengo Twp | 613 | 361 | 990 | 252 | 61.92% | 36.46% |
| Marshall | 1751 | 1621 | 3418 | 130 | 51.23% | 47.43% |
| Marshall twp | 1042 | 673 | 1732 | 369 | 60.16% | 38.86% |
| Newton Twp | 936 | 552 | 1500 | 384 | 62.40% | 36.80% |
| Pennfield twp | 2324 | 1926 | 4311 | 398 | 53.91% | 44.68% |
| Sheridan Twp | 407 | 345 | 763 | 62 | 53.34% | 45.22% |
| Springfield | 620 | 893 | 1538 | -273 | 40.31% | 58.06% |
| Tekonsha Twp | 364 | 337 | 713 | 27 | 51.05% | 47.27% |
| Total | 28333 | 29267 | 58326 | -934 | 48.58% | 50.18% |
| Ionia County | ||||||
| Belding | 905 | 1095 | 2047 | -190 | 44.21% | 53.49% |
| Berlin Twp | 674 | 390 | 1073 | 284 | 62.81% | 36.35% |
| Boston Twp | 1628 | 987 | 2647 | 641 | 61.50% | 37.29% |
| Campbell Twp | 852 | 344 | 1205 | 508 | 70.71% | 28.55% |
| Danby Twp | 863 | 596 | 1482 | 267 | 58.23% | 40.22% |
| Easton Twp | 759 | 619 | 1405 | 140 | 54.02% | 44.06% |
| Ionia | 938 | 1198 | 2175 | -260 | 43.13% | 55.08% |
| Ionia Twp | 742 | 672 | 1429 | 70 | 51.92% | 47.03% |
| Keene Twp | 580 | 292 | 887 | 288 | 65.39% | 32.92% |
| Lyons Twp | 834 | 688 | 1552 | 146 | 53.74% | 44.33% |
| North Plains Twp | 218 | 307 | 536 | -89 | 40.67% | 57.28% |
| Odessa Twp | 1078 | 663 | 1782 | 415 | 60.49% | 37.21% |
| Orange Twp | 330 | 202 | 548 | 128 | 60.22% | 36.86% |
| Orleans Twp | 562 | 480 | 1056 | 82 | 53.22% | 45.45% |
| Otisco Twp | 628 | 424 | 1075 | 204 | 58.42% | 39.44% |
| Portland | 923 | 869 | 1820 | 54 | 50.71% | 47.75% |
| Portland Twp | 1023 | 666 | 1711 | 357 | 59.79% | 38.92% |
| Ronald Twp | 411 | 367 | 793 | 44 | 51.83% | 46.28% |
| Sebewa Twp | 367 | 159 | 537 | 208 | 68.34% | 29.61% |
| Total | 14315 | 11018 | 25760 | 3297 | 55.57% | 42.77% |
| Kent County | ||||||
| Ada Twp | 5193 | 2671 | 7920 | 2522 | 65.57% | 33.72% |
| Algoma Twp | 3621 | 1742 | 5409 | 1879 | 66.94% | 32.21% |
| Alpine Twp | 3156 | 2860 | 6104 | 296 | 51.70% | 46.85% |
| Bowne Twp | 1350 | 448 | 1816 | 902 | 74.34% | 24.67% |
| Byron Twp | 8656 | 2845 | 11577 | 5811 | 74.77% | 24.57% |
| Caledonia Twp | 4918 | 1966 | 6946 | 2952 | 70.80% | 28.30% |
| Cannon Twp | 5624 | 2482 | 8171 | 3142 | 68.83% | 30.38% |
| Cascade Twp | 7252 | 3540 | 10857 | 3712 | 66.80% | 32.61% |
| Cedar Springs | 635 | 520 | 1172 | 115 | 54.18% | 44.37% |
| Courtland Twp | 2825 | 1399 | 4274 | 1426 | 66.10% | 32.73% |
| East Grand Rapids | 3521 | 3361 | 6916 | 160 | 50.91% | 48.60% |
| Gaines Twp | 7868 | 4308 | 12264 | 3560 | 64.16% | 35.13% |
| Grand Rapids | 28772 | 50739 | 80536 | -21967 | 35.73% | 63.00% |
| Grand Rapids Twp | 6338 | 3803 | 10213 | 2535 | 62.06% | 37.24% |
| Grattan Twp | 1371 | 795 | 2191 | 576 | 62.57% | 36.28% |
| Lowell | 917 | 807 | 1751 | 110 | 52.37% | 46.09% |
| Lowell Twp | 1894 | 1127 | 3057 | 767 | 61.96% | 36.87% |
| Nelson Twp | 1302 | 792 | 2124 | 510 | 61.30% | 37.29% |
| Oakfield Twp | 1723 | 1185 | 2941 | 538 | 58.59% | 40.29% |
| Plainfield Twp | 10727 | 6965 | 17871 | 3762 | 60.02% | 38.97% |
| Rockford | 1732 | 1211 | 2967 | 521 | 58.38% | 40.82% |
| Solon Twp | 1734 | 1023 | 2790 | 711 | 62.15% | 36.67% |
| Sparta Twp | 2374 | 1561 | 3983 | 813 | 59.60% | 39.19% |
| Spencer Twp | 1041 | 755 | 1825 | 286 | 57.04% | 41.37% |
| Tyrone Twp | 1228 | 695 | 1943 | 533 | 63.20% | 35.77% |
| Vergennes Twp | 1686 | 802 | 2505 | 884 | 67.31% | 32.02% |
| Total | 117458 | 100402 | 220123 | 17056 | 53.36% | 45.61% |
| Montcalm County | ||||||
| Eureka Twp | 1028 | 900 | 1945 | 128 | 52.85% | 46.27% |
| Total All | 177789 | 153081 | 334666 | 24708 | 53.12% | 45.74% |
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