Wednesday, May 22, 2013

Congressional District 12 (MI-12) - Updated

Update 2014: Dingell's retiring, but his wife's running for his spot and is the frontrunner. Terry Bowman is an interesting candidate here. He's a union member and does not support the leadership at all. He can make inroads with swing voters many other Republicans can't do.


MI-12 Update - 2013

The 2011 Update is here.

The 2009 Update is here.

Incumbent –Open with John Dingell retiring
Years in office as of 2014 election – 59

Challengers – Terry Bowman (R-Ypsilanti), Stephen Farkas (R-Dearborn), Debbie Dingell (D-Dearborn), Raymond Mullins (D-Ypsilanti)

2012:
John Dingell – 214011 – 67.99%
Cynthia Kallgren – 90955 – 28.90%
-123056 vote difference

Romney – 105848 votes – 32.68%
Obama – 214411 votes – 66.19%
-108653 vote difference.

2008: (Approx – Dearborn Heights reprecincted)
McCain – 107670 votes – 31.24%
Obama –  231218 votes – 67.09%
-123548 vote difference

2004: (approx – D. Hghts and Scio Twp reprecincted)
Bush – 120718 votes – 36.99%
Kerry – 201368 votes – 61.709%
-80650 vote difference

Notes – Dearborn Heights reprecincted. Scio Twp did between 2004 and 2008.

This district is a blue sink that combines Downriver labor democrats with Ann Arbor leftists. It did what it was intended to do and that is to pick up as many democrats as possible.

For the map, I’ll use the same color code, staying with the Dark Blue for 70% d areas that I used in Districts 5, 6, and 7

70%+Dem – Dark Blue
60%-69.99% - Blue
55%-59.99% - Slate Blue
50%-54.99% - Light Sky Blue
Less than 50% - Gold
R wins:
70%+Rep – Firebrick
60-69.99% - Red
55-59.99% - Orange Red
50-54.99% - Salmon
Less than 50% - Yellow
Tie – Spring Green

2012 (approx on map)

MI-1208

2008

 MI-1212

2004

MI1204

The Washtenaw County portion is centered on two areas. Ann Arbor and Ypsilanti. Ann Arbor is best described as an East Coast academia city placed in the Midwest. University of Michigan is considered one of the backup schools on the East Coast for those who don’t go to an Ivy League. One of its nicknames is the City College of New York – West. The politics in A2 are divided between townie democrats which more often tend to be Bill Clinton types, and radical feminists and greens like you’d expect to see get elected in academia. Republicans haven’t been competitive in the city in years. Occasionally in the past they had a council seat or even the mayor spot, but they aren’t even considered anymore as dems win across the board here. It’s 75-25D consistently, and with Obama it’s 80/20. The township is less dem, but still 2-1 and ceased being competitive with the apartments built up on the southern edge of the township. Eastern Scio Twp is basically a western extension of Ann Arbor.

Ypsilanti (usually called Ypsi) is also a college town (EMU), but has a much different history. It was also a GM town.  One of it’s nicknames was Ypsi-tucky due to a large number of Appalachian transplants who worked in the Willow Run auto factory. Willow run closed down, but the union influence here remains. Ypsilanti (both city and township) also has a large black population. Romney absolutely bombed in Ypsi. He did bad in Ann Arbor, but at least improved over McCain. Romney had less votes in Ypsi, and in the township, had a worse percentage. Obama took 83% in the City and 74% in the Township. Superior Township to the north is safe dem because of its portion of Willow Run. Three precincts in its southern end are 69%+, including one that’s 90%+ and black majority. It’s large enough to put the township 60%+ D. Pittsfield Twp is one part Ann Arbor, one part Saline, and one part Ypsi in influence. It’s also safe democrat, with a large Asian (not sure Indian or East Asian or both) population in the portion between Ann Arbor and Saline. The east part of Pittsfield twp is heavily minority and EMU influenced. 

Past the County line is Van Buren Twp. It was somewhat competitive not all that long ago. The Canton/Van Buren state rep seat was ours until 2006. A lot of blacks from Romulus and Inkster (or Ypsi) are moving there. It went 67% for Obama in 08, and 71.93% for Obama in 2012. I think white flight is going on there now. It went from 12 to 28% black, and 25% is the usual “tipping point” in metro Detroit. There was also 5000 less presidential votes overall from 2008 to 2012 (suspicious). Belleville’s much more dem than it was in 2004. 63% for Obama twice, while 56% for Bush.

South of there is Sumpter Twp. It’s been consistently 58-62% dem and hasn’t changed much. East of there is Huron Twp which has moved our way some. Gore won it, then Bush, then Obama, and now Romney. It’s always close. East of Huron Twp is the southern part of Downriver. It’s dem, but sometimes we pick off a state rep district here. Grosse Ile and occasionally Huron Twp carry the district. Grosse Ile is 60%+R. Trenton, Woodhaven, and Gibraltar are narrowly democrat. In a great year or with a great candidate, one can flip them. Unfortunately, Romney was a bad candidate here in particular. He got less votes than McCain in Trenton and Gibraltar. Rockwood, Flat Rock, and Riverview are harder. Strangly shaped Brownstown Township (unincorporated and split in 3 sections) is strongly and stubbornly democrat. The north part of that township might as well be part of Taylor.

Northern Downriver is union country and still retains the traditions. It’s largely white ethnic and Appalachian, although the minority population is slowly increasing, particularly Mexicans in Lincoln Park (borders SW Detroit) and blacks in Taylor. Taylor, Lincoln Park, Southgate, and Wyandotte are all 60%+ dem, and they are getting bluer. Romney was a real bad fit here, and had less votes in all four of those areas than McCain. Obama had a higher 2012 percentage in Taylor, Lincoln Park, and Southgate. Was that due to “Let Detroit go bankrupt?” Probably. North of there is somewhat competitive Allen Park. It’s winnable in a great year. 2012 wasn’t it.

Lastly, Dearborn. Dearborn is and has been usually democrat and the home of Dingell. Bush did win it however in 2000. Then the Iraq War happened. Dearborn is about 40% Middle Eastern (not all Muslim), mostly in the Eastern end. Western Dearborn is largely white ethnic. It’s Ford HQ, and has a mix of union and auto executives. In 2004, Kerry flipped it in a big way getting 58%. McCain and Romney cratered here. Romney did worse than McCain. Obama got 65% in 2008 and 66% in 2012. Obviously a lot work needs to be done.

This district does what it was intended to do. It packs democrats. Rob Steele made a good run at a similar district in 2010, but was unable to counter the traditions. What we need to do here is get the best we can get and try and pick off a state rep district here and there like the far downriver seat in 2010. We need to cut down the margins of dem victory here and make up the ground in other districts. 


MI-12 Romney Obama Total  Diff GOP  DEM
Washtenaw County





Ann Arbor 11008 46198 58112 -35190 18.94% 79.50%
Ann Arbor Twp 903 1678 2601 -775 34.72% 64.51%
Pittsfield Twp 5414 10881 16481 -5467 32.85% 66.02%
Scio Twp 3 354 693 1057 -339 33.49% 65.56%
Scio 4 377 720 1101 -343 34.24% 65.40%
Scio 7 505 1254 1779 -749 28.39% 70.49%
Scio 8 579 1056 1650 -477 35.09% 64.00%
Scio 9 386 881 1275 -495 30.27% 69.10%
Superior Twp 2218 4681 6941 -2463 31.96% 67.44%
Ypsilanti 1205 6980 8349 -5775 14.43% 83.60%
Ypsilanti Twp 6264 18915 25478 -12651 24.59% 74.24%
Total 29213 93937 124824 -64724 23.40% 75.26%







Wayne County





Allen Park 6769 8189 15115 -1420 44.78% 54.18%
Belleville 657 1168 1841 -511 35.69% 63.44%
Brownstown Twp 5665 8234 14014 -2569 40.42% 58.76%
Dearborn 12732 26266 39415 -13534 32.30% 66.64%
Dearborn Hghts 24 327 463 797 -136 41.03% 58.09%
DH 25 301 585 895 -284 33.63% 65.36%
DH 26 301 449 763 -148 39.45% 58.85%
DH 27 286 501 796 -215 35.93% 62.94%
DH 911AV 468 542 1021 -74 45.84% 53.09%
Flat Rock 1833 2459 4338 -626 42.25% 56.69%
Gibralter 1121 1233 2387 -112 46.96% 51.65%
Grosse Ile 4311 2597 6937 1714 62.15% 37.44%
Huron Twp 3785 3648 7513 137 50.38% 48.56%
Lincoln Park 4368 9570 14107 -5202 30.96% 67.84%
Riverview 2660 3394 6101 -734 43.60% 55.63%
Rockwood 650 877 1545 -227 42.07% 56.76%
Southgate 5211 8816 14164 -3605 36.79% 62.24%
Sumpter Twp 1751 2498 4297 -747 40.75% 58.13%
Taylor 8607 16143 24999 -7536 34.43% 64.57%
Trenton 4905 5323 10320 -418 47.53% 51.58%
Van Buren Twp 2529 6658 9256 -4129 27.32% 71.93%
Woodhaven 2843 3536 6438 -693 44.16% 54.92%
Wyandotte 4555 7325 12041 -2770 37.83% 60.83%
Total 76635 120474 199100 -43839 38.49% 60.51%







Total 105848 214411 323924 -108563 32.68% 66.19%


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