Congressional District 12 (MI-12) - Updated

Update 2014: Dingell's retiring, but his wife's running for his spot and is the frontrunner. Terry Bowman is an interesting candidate here. He's a union member and does not support the leadership at all. He can make inroads with swing voters many other Republicans can't do.

MI-12 Update - 2013

The 2011 Update is here.

The 2009 Update is here.

Incumbent –Open with John Dingell retiring
Years in office as of 2014 election – 59

Challengers – Terry Bowman (R-Ypsilanti), Stephen Farkas (R-Dearborn), Debbie Dingell (D-Dearborn), Raymond Mullins (D-Ypsilanti)

2012:

John Dingell – 214011 – 67.99%

Cynthia Kallgren – 90955 – 28.90%

-123056 vote difference

Romney – 105848 votes – 32.68%

Obama – 214411 votes – 66.19%

-108653 vote difference.

2008: (Approx – Dearborn Heights reprecincted)

McCain – 107670 votes – 31.24%

Obama –  231218 votes – 67.09%

-123548 vote difference

2004: (approx – D. Hghts and Scio Twp reprecincted)

Bush – 120718 votes – 36.99%

Kerry – 201368 votes – 61.709%

-80650 vote difference

Notes – Dearborn Heights reprecincted. Scio Twp did between 2004 and 2008.

This district is a blue sink that combines Downriver labor democrats with Ann Arbor leftists. It did what it was intended to do and that is to pick up as many democrats as possible.

For the map, I’ll use the same color code, staying with the Dark Blue for 70% d areas that I used in Districts 5, 6, and 7

70%+Dem – Dark Blue

60%-69.99% - Blue

55%-59.99% - Slate Blue

50%-54.99% - Light Sky Blue

Less than 50% - Gold

R wins:

70%+Rep – Firebrick

60-69.99% - Red

55-59.99% - Orange Red

50-54.99% - Salmon

Less than 50% - Yellow

Tie – Spring Green

2012 (approx on map)

2008

 

2004

The Washtenaw County portion is centered on two areas. Ann Arbor and Ypsilanti. Ann Arbor is best described as an East Coast academia city placed in the Midwest. University of Michigan is considered one of the backup schools on the East Coast for those who don’t go to an Ivy League. One of its nicknames is the City College of New York – West. The politics in A2 are divided between townie democrats which more often tend to be Bill Clinton types, and radical feminists and greens like you’d expect to see get elected in academia. Republicans haven’t been competitive in the city in years. Occasionally in the past they had a council seat or even the mayor spot, but they aren’t even considered anymore as dems win across the board here. It’s 75-25D consistently, and with Obama it’s 80/20. The township is less dem, but still 2-1 and ceased being competitive with the apartments built up on the southern edge of the township. Eastern Scio Twp is basically a western extension of Ann Arbor.

Ypsilanti (usually called Ypsi) is also a college town (EMU), but has a much different history. It was also a GM town.  One of it’s nicknames was Ypsi-tucky due to a large number of Appalachian transplants who worked in the Willow Run auto factory. Willow run closed down, but the union influence here remains. Ypsilanti (both city and township) also has a large black population. Romney absolutely bombed in Ypsi. He did bad in Ann Arbor, but at least improved over McCain. Romney had less votes in Ypsi, and in the township, had a worse percentage. Obama took 83% in the City and 74% in the Township. Superior Township to the north is safe dem because of its portion of Willow Run. Three precincts in its southern end are 69%+, including one that’s 90%+ and black majority. It’s large enough to put the township 60%+ D. Pittsfield Twp is one part Ann Arbor, one part Saline, and one part Ypsi in influence. It’s also safe democrat, with a large Asian (not sure Indian or East Asian or both) population in the portion between Ann Arbor and Saline. The east part of Pittsfield twp is heavily minority and EMU influenced. 

Past the County line is Van Buren Twp. It was somewhat competitive not all that long ago. The Canton/Van Buren state rep seat was ours until 2006. A lot of blacks from Romulus and Inkster (or Ypsi) are moving there. It went 67% for Obama in 08, and 71.93% for Obama in 2012. I think white flight is going on there now. It went from 12 to 28% black, and 25% is the usual “tipping point” in metro Detroit. There was also 5000 less presidential votes overall from 2008 to 2012 (suspicious). Belleville’s much more dem than it was in 2004. 63% for Obama twice, while 56% for Bush.

South of there is Sumpter Twp. It’s been consistently 58-62% dem and hasn’t changed much. East of there is Huron Twp which has moved our way some. Gore won it, then Bush, then Obama, and now Romney. It’s always close. East of Huron Twp is the southern part of Downriver. It’s dem, but sometimes we pick off a state rep district here. Grosse Ile and occasionally Huron Twp carry the district. Grosse Ile is 60%+R. Trenton, Woodhaven, and Gibraltar are narrowly democrat. In a great year or with a great candidate, one can flip them. Unfortunately, Romney was a bad candidate here in particular. He got less votes than McCain in Trenton and Gibraltar. Rockwood, Flat Rock, and Riverview are harder. Strangly shaped Brownstown Township (unincorporated and split in 3 sections) is strongly and stubbornly democrat. The north part of that township might as well be part of Taylor.

Northern Downriver is union country and still retains the traditions. It’s largely white ethnic and Appalachian, although the minority population is slowly increasing, particularly Mexicans in Lincoln Park (borders SW Detroit) and blacks in Taylor. Taylor, Lincoln Park, Southgate, and Wyandotte are all 60%+ dem, and they are getting bluer. Romney was a real bad fit here, and had less votes in all four of those areas than McCain. Obama had a higher 2012 percentage in Taylor, Lincoln Park, and Southgate. Was that due to “Let Detroit go bankrupt?” Probably. North of there is somewhat competitive Allen Park. It’s winnable in a great year. 2012 wasn’t it.

Lastly, Dearborn. Dearborn is and has been usually democrat and the home of Dingell. Bush did win it however in 2000. Then the Iraq War happened. Dearborn is about 40% Middle Eastern (not all Muslim), mostly in the Eastern end. Western Dearborn is largely white ethnic. It’s Ford HQ, and has a mix of union and auto executives. In 2004, Kerry flipped it in a big way getting 58%. McCain and Romney cratered here. Romney did worse than McCain. Obama got 65% in 2008 and 66% in 2012. Obviously a lot work needs to be done.

This district does what it was intended to do. It packs democrats. Rob Steele made a good run at a similar district in 2010, but was unable to counter the traditions. What we need to do here is get the best we can get and try and pick off a state rep district here and there like the far downriver seat in 2010. We need to cut down the margins of dem victory here and make up the ground in other districts. 

MI-12	Romney	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM
Washtenaw County
Ann Arbor	11008	46198	58112	-35190	18.94%	79.50%
Ann Arbor Twp	903	1678	2601	-775	34.72%	64.51%
Pittsfield Twp	5414	10881	16481	-5467	32.85%	66.02%
Scio Twp 3	354	693	1057	-339	33.49%	65.56%
Scio 4	377	720	1101	-343	34.24%	65.40%
Scio 7	505	1254	1779	-749	28.39%	70.49%
Scio 8	579	1056	1650	-477	35.09%	64.00%
Scio 9	386	881	1275	-495	30.27%	69.10%
Superior Twp	2218	4681	6941	-2463	31.96%	67.44%
Ypsilanti	1205	6980	8349	-5775	14.43%	83.60%
Ypsilanti Twp	6264	18915	25478	-12651	24.59%	74.24%
Total	29213	93937	124824	-64724	23.40%	75.26%
Wayne County
Allen Park	6769	8189	15115	-1420	44.78%	54.18%
Belleville	657	1168	1841	-511	35.69%	63.44%
Brownstown Twp	5665	8234	14014	-2569	40.42%	58.76%
Dearborn	12732	26266	39415	-13534	32.30%	66.64%
Dearborn Hghts 24	327	463	797	-136	41.03%	58.09%
DH 25	301	585	895	-284	33.63%	65.36%
DH 26	301	449	763	-148	39.45%	58.85%
DH 27	286	501	796	-215	35.93%	62.94%
DH 911AV	468	542	1021	-74	45.84%	53.09%
Flat Rock	1833	2459	4338	-626	42.25%	56.69%
Gibralter	1121	1233	2387	-112	46.96%	51.65%
Grosse Ile	4311	2597	6937	1714	62.15%	37.44%
Huron Twp	3785	3648	7513	137	50.38%	48.56%
Lincoln Park	4368	9570	14107	-5202	30.96%	67.84%
Riverview	2660	3394	6101	-734	43.60%	55.63%
Rockwood	650	877	1545	-227	42.07%	56.76%
Southgate	5211	8816	14164	-3605	36.79%	62.24%
Sumpter Twp	1751	2498	4297	-747	40.75%	58.13%
Taylor	8607	16143	24999	-7536	34.43%	64.57%
Trenton	4905	5323	10320	-418	47.53%	51.58%
Van Buren Twp	2529	6658	9256	-4129	27.32%	71.93%
Woodhaven	2843	3536	6438	-693	44.16%	54.92%
Wyandotte	4555	7325	12041	-2770	37.83%	60.83%
Total	76635	120474	199100	-43839	38.49%	60.51%
Total	105848	214411	323924	-108563	32.68%	66.19%