Saturday, May 21, 2005

Tuscola County

Tuscola County:
Location – Northwestern Thumb
Population – 58,266 (2000 Census)
Demographics – 96.05% White, 1.07% Black, .57% American Indian, .31% Asian, .72% Some other Race, 1.26% Two or more races, 2.30% Hispanic or Latino(of any race)
County Seat – Caro (pop 4,145)

Tuscola County is a conservative, but not always Republican county in the thumb. It is populist and strongly Second Amendment, with a labor influence due to it’s close distance to Saginaw and Bay City.

Government Officials Representing area:
Congressmen:
5th District – Dale Kildee (D)

State Senators:
31st District – Jim Barcia (D)

State Representative:
84th District – Tom Meyer (R)

1998 Results Countywide:(Winners overall in bold)
Governor - John Engler (R) – 66.70%, Geoffrey Fieger (D) – 33.30%
Secretary of State - Candice Miller (R) – 72.63%, Mary Lou Parks (D) – 26.94%
Attorney General - John Smietanka (R) – 52.83%, Jennifer Granholm (D) – 47.17%

Congress:
5th District – Jim Barcia (D) – 68.95%, Donald Brewster (R) – 29.49%

State Senators:
34th District – Joel Gougeon (R) – 65.02%, Tom Alley (D) – 34.98%

State Representative:
84th District – Mike Green (R) – 67.89%, Ed Markham (D) – 32.11%

2000 Results Countywide
US Senate - Spence Abraham (R) – 57.12%, Debbie Stabenow (D) – 40.22%

Congress:
5th District – Jim Barcia (D) – 71.87%, Ronald Actis (R) – 26.24%

State Representative:
84th District – Tom Meyer (R) – 57.63%, Pamela Stillwell-Binder (D) – 42.37%

2002 Results Countywide
Governor – Dick Posthumus (R) – 56.32%, Jennifer Granholm (D) – 42.13%
Secretary of State - Terri Lynn Land (R) – 57.35%, Butch Hollowell (D) – 39.67%
Attorney General – Mike Cox (R) – 52.30%, Gary Peters (D) – 44.85%
US Senate - Carl Levin (D) – 58.51%, Andrew "Rocky" Raczkowski (R) – 39.54%
Congress:
5th District – Dale Kildee (D) – 87.28%, Clint Foster (Libertarian) – 6.40%

State Senate:
31st District – Mike Green (R) – 51.06%, Jim Barcia (D) – 48.94%

State Representative:
84th District – Tom Kern (D) – 55.05%, Tom Meyer (R) – 43.66%

2004 Results Countywide
Congress:
5th District – Dale Kildee (D) – 52.39%, Myrah Kirkwood (R) – 45.51%

State Representative:
84th District – Tom Meyer (R) – 58.72%, Steve Monfle (D) – 38.94%

2000, 2004 Presidential Results
First number Bush, Second number Democrat
Areas that flipped are in Bold.

TUSCOLA COUNTY
2000 – Bush - 13213 (53.60%), Gore – 10845 (43.99%)
2004 – Bush – 15389 (54.31%), Kerry – 12631 (44.57%)

Akron Township
2000 - 382 (54.42%), 304 (43.30%)
2004 – 422 (56.04%), 321 (42.63%)

Almer Township
2000 - 732 (55.67%), 557 (42.36%)
2004 – 826 (56.23%), 628 (42.75%)

Arbela Township
2000 - 671 (45.62%), 762 (51.80%)
2004 – 777 (47.73%), 831 (51.04%)

Columbia Township
2000 - 371 (62.35%), 214 (35.97%)
2004 – 355 (54.87%), 283 (43.74%)

Dayton Township
2000 - 414 (50.86%), 383 (47.05%)
2004 – 532 (52.57%), 470 (46.44%)

Denmark Township
2000 – 1119 (68.27%), 489 (29.84%)
2004 – 1190 (65.75%), 606 (33.48%)

Elkland Township
2000 - 922 (56.36%), 684 (41.81%)
2004 – 1039 (59.30%), 700 (39.95%)

Ellington Township
2000 – 348 (62.48%), 202 (36.27%)
2004 – 400 (61.16%), 246 (37.61%)

Elmwood Township
2000 – 262 (51.88%) 223 (44.19%)
2004 – 337 (56.73%), 246 (41.41%)

Fairgrove Township
2000 – 415 (53.62%), 342 (44.19%)
2004 – 446 (53.73%), 374 (45.06%)

Fremont Township
2000 - 687 (48.86%), 688 (48.93%)
2004 – 900 (48.99%), 918 (49.97%)

Gilford Township
2000 – 239 (61.76%), 142 (36.69%)
2004 – 262 (60.79%), 167 (38.75%)

Indianfields Township
2000 – 1181 (46.83%), 1246 (49.41%)
2004 – 1392 (48.27%), 1452 (50.35%)

Juniata Township
2000 – 362 (48.33%), 374 (49.93%)
2004 – 443 (50.46%), 424 (48.29%)

Kingston Township
2000 – 353 (58.06%), 238 (39.14%)
2004 – 431 (59.12%), 285 (39.09%)

Koylton Township
2000 – 328 (53.16%), 270 (43.76%)
2004 – 416 (56.45%), 309 (41.93%)

Millington Township
2000 – 1079 (50.70%), 1000 (46.99%)
2004 – 1270 (52.54%), 1131 (46.79%)

Novesta Township
2000 – 381 (62.05%), 215 (35.02%)
2004 – 427 (61.53%), 260 (37.46%)

Tuscola Township
2000 – 677 (63.99%), 360 (34.03%)
2004 – 776 (65.71%), 398 (33.70%)

Vassar City
2000 – 542 (50.00%), 517 (47.69%)
2004 – 632 (52.23%), 567 (46.86%)

Vassar Township
2000 - 745 (50.68%), 686 (46.67%)
2004 – 913 (50.08%), 888 (48.71%)

Watertown Township
2000 – 479 (51.28%), 426 (45.61%)
2004 – 604 (52.89%), 525 (45.97%)

Wells Township
2000 – 305 (45.19%), 355 (52.59%)
2004 – 397 (48.06%), 416 (50.36%)

Wissner Township
2000 – 216 (55.53%), 168 (43.19%)
2004 – 208 (52.26%), 186 (46.73%)

Tuscola County has a strong independent streak and splits their ticket often. They did vote for Bush with similar margins in 2000 and 2004. They also voted for Jim Barcia by wide margins except against Mike Green who wrote the CCW law. Tom Meyer won here in 2000, but lost the county to popular sheriff Tom Kern (an outspoken CCW advocate) in 2002. Meyer won the county easily in 2004 and this district is now open and may be a sleeper in 06 if the democrat is a social conservative. I’d like to see Mike Green take another shot at the state senate if Barcia doesn’t run again. He’s a good guy and would have won last time if Barcia wasn’t an institution up there.

Redistricting hardly changed the State Senate and State rep districts here, but changed the congressional district significantly. It is now in Dale Kildee’s Flint/Saginaw/Bay City based district. Tuscola county is a key county for state legislative districts and may matter in a close statewide race.

2 comments:

Former Resident said...

I would suggest that Tuscola County has a strong pro-union bent from its role as a UAW bedroom community for the whole I-75 auto corridor, Detroit to Saginaw. The independent streak is more the split between this group and the rural community. An interesting study would be a check of the age demographics as the union segment is not obviously growing and the rural community has been stagnant for decades.

Republican Michigander said...

Good point. I'm not as familiar with the age demographics there, but from my experience there, it seems like it was mostly an "older baby boomer" community - similar to what is seen at an auto plant. That was near Caro.

From the census - Median Age 37. 35.5 statewide.